ANALYSIS OF RECENT COLD PERIOD IN NEW ENGLAND IN FEBRUARY 2023
Electricity in Modern Societies
A modern, industrial society is highly reliant on electric service, 24/7/365, year after year, especially if tens of millions of EVs were used for transportation and heat pumps were used for building space heating.
If a modern society were going the route of hugely expensive, highly subsidized, highly visible, environmentally destructive, wind and solar, it MUST HAVE adequate backup/standby power plant capacity, fueled, staffed, maintained in good working order, and ready to provide power, as demanded by the electric grid operator, such as ISO-NE.
Plus, there MUST BE adequate natural gas and fuel oil storage systems, near backup/standby power plants, to cover simultaneous, wind/solar lulls, lasting up to 5 to 7 days, which are sometimes followed by a second wind/solar lull, lasting several days, based on hour-by-hour weather reports of the last few decades.
Battery System Capital Costs, Operating Costs, Energy Losses, and Aging
Battery systems, useful life about 15 years, at an all-in turnkey capital cost of about $500/kWh, delivered as AC, would be a totally unaffordable alternative, compared with adequate fuel storage systems and backup/standby power plants.
Very Low Temperatures in New England
New England had very low temperatures on February 3, 4 and 5, 2023. During those days, significant quantities of natural gas, which comes, via pipelines, from Pennsylvania, were diverted away from power plants, towards building heating systems.
This meant, these power plants needed to use expensive fuel oil to generate up to 30% of the electricity loaded onto the NE HV grid.
The normal electricity from fuel oil loaded on the NE HV grid is less than 1%. See EIA graph.
The graphs are interactive on this site. You can see the numbers by hovering.
NOTE: The construction of new gas pipelines from Pennsylvania, via New York State, to New England, has been obstructed by New York State, aided and abetted by the nutty-zero folks of Connecticut and Massachusetts, who likely never analyzed, designed, or operated any energy systems.
Increased Natural Gas and Fuel Oil Storage Capacity
New England needs to significantly increase its natural gas and fuel storage capacities to: 1) offset political pipeline capacity constraints, and 2) ensure continuous electric service, 24/7/365, during stressful conditions, such as:
- Peak demands in summer
- Simultaneous multi-day wind/solar lulls, which may be followed by another multi-day lull, a few days later
- Multi-day, low-temperature conditions in winter
- Multi-day, high-temperature conditions in summer
- Multiple power plant and transmission outages occurring at the same time
Comments on Graph
The red part is the fuel oil. Wind and solar were nearly invisible during the low-temperature period.
Solar was near zero at peak hours, after which it went to sleep until about 9 AM the next day.
The absence of highly subsidized solar is highly reliable
Diverting natural gas from power plants to building heating, during cold periods, comes at a $multi-million-dollar cost.
It would have been much less costly to build adequate gas storage systems near power plants, that last 50 years, to ensure the power plants would not need to switch to high-cost fuel oil, which costs more c/kWh, and produces much more sub-micron particulate/kWh, and CO2/kWh, than very-clean-burning natural gas.
Comments on Graph, constructed by Warren Van Wyck, based on ISO-NE data
During the cold period:
- Bottom black line is net imports from adjacent grids, never exceeded 3,500 MW.
- Black area is fuel oil spiked from less than 1% to about 30% of electricity, during the cold period
- Orange area is nuclear was steady and unaffected by the cold temperatures
- Wind and solar are shown on the last graph, also constructed by Warren Van Wyck
Comment on Graph
The NE wholesale prices, paid by utilities, increased from a normal of about $50/MWh (with about 1% fuel oil) to $400/MWh (with about 30% fuel oil). The use of fuel oil helped prevent black-outs.
Comments on graph, constructed by Warren Van Wyck, based on ISO-NE data.
- Black line is total electricity loaded by power plants onto NE HV grid, including solar on NE HV grid, but not including Before The Meter, BTM, solar on distribution grids.
BTM solar is monitored/recorded by NE utilities, but not visible to ISO-NE.
- Red line is highly subsidized, unreliable BTM solar, from about 5700 MW AC installed, such as rooftop, on distribution grids, at end 2022.
Solar was minimal, even at noontime, on several days
Solar maxed out at about 2400 MW AC, at noontime, on January 27, 28
Winter sunshine is early to bed and a late riser
- Grey line is highly subsidized, unreliable, random wind, from about 1470 MW AC installed, on the NE HV grid, at end 2022.
Wind was near zero, on several occasions, during the March 22 to March 28 period.
Cold Spell Friday, Saturday, Feb 3, 4, 2023
The below graphs were prepared by Warren Van Wyck, based on ISO-NE grid operating data.
The first Url provides the data, the second URL shows the graphs.
Analyses of Disastrous Texas Blackouts in February 2021
If you think what happened in Texas was bad, just wait… a nationwide power disaster is coming, if the US continues to shut down affordable, reliable, ON DEMAND power plants that produce power, when you need it, in favor of building out wind and solar systems, that are dependent on unreliable sunshine and breezes, i.e., Mother Nature.
Wind and Solar are Molly-Coddled up to Their Armpits
Wind/Solar Shortcomings in Europe in 2021
Energy/resource-starved Europe, a maven regarding wind and solar, handicapped itself by excessive build-outs of wind and solar, plus taking other measures that ultimately jeopardized the reliability of providing electricity service to users.
Europe certainly learned its lesson in 2021, well before the Ukraine events, when there was much sunshine, but little wind in most of Europe
This meant, much more natural gas and coal was needed for electricity, which resulted in huge increases in natural gas prices, and huge inflation in 2021.
Hydro power was underperforming due to a lack of water.
Much of French nuclear power was down, due to deferred maintenance.
By the way, all of this, including rolling blackouts at ZUB-ZERO temperatures, and a lack of gas and oil for space heating, applies to New England, if:
1) New York State keeps obstructing new gas pipelines from Pennsylvania to New England; THIS SHOULD BE LEGALLY FORBIDDEN AS AN UNCONSTITUTIONAL INTERFERENCE OF INTER-STATE COMMERCE, and
2) The New England oil, gas and coal storage capacities near power plants are not increased by at least 100% to ensure RELIABLE ELECTRICAL SERVICE IN WINTER, WHICH WOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT, IF UNCERTAIN, MOTHER-NATURE, WEATHER-DEPENDENT WIND AND SOLAR WERE FURTHER EXPANDED, AS THE US AIMS TO BLINDLY COPY THAT DISASTROUS EUROPEAN SCENARIO
These articles and image are provided for reference.
ISO-NE REPORT OF 2021 ECONOMIC STUDY: FUTURE GRID RELIABILITY STUDY PHASE 1
DEEP DIVE SUMMARY OF THE ISO-NE REPORT
LIFE WITHOUT OIL
Life without oil means many products that are made with oil, such as the hundreds listed below, would need to be provided by wind and solar and hydro.
Folks, including Biden's attendants, wanting to get rid of fossil fuels, such as crude oil, better start doing some rethinking.
The above also applies to natural gas, which is much preferred by many industries
If you do not have abundant low-cost energy, you cannot have modern industrial economies.
These articles contain significant information regarding wind, solar and grid-scale battery systems
GRID-SCALE BATTERY SYSTEMS IN NEW ENGLAND TO COUNTERACT SHORTFALL OF ONE-DAY WIND/SOLAR LULL
COLD WEATHER OPERATION IN NEW ENGLAND DECEMBER 24, 2017 TO JANUARY 8, 2018
ANALYSIS OF WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY LULLS AND ENERGY STORAGE IN GERMANY
IRELAND FUEL AND CO2 REDUCTIONS DUE TO WIND ENERGY LESS THAN CLAIMED
BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING
HIGH COSTS OF WIND, SOLAR, AND BATTERY SYSTEMS IN US NORTHEAST
CO2 is a Life Gas; No CO2 = No Life
These articles explain a lot about the world-wide “Climate Crisis” scam, based on highly compromised surface station measurements, which typically read HIGH.
Climate scientists SUBJECTIVELY adjust the readings for use in their SUBJECTIVE computerized-temperature-calculation programs, which are used in the reports of IPCC, etc., for scare-mongering purposes.
New Surface Stations Report Released – It’s ‘worse than we thought’
Weather- Just how does it happen?
A summary of the results of three “Physics of the Earth’s Atmosphere” papers, which were submitted for peer review at the Open Peer Review Journal.
Satellites and balloons measure temperatures of the Troposphere, which starts at ground level, and has an average height of 59,000 ft at the tropics, 56,000 ft at the middle latitudes, and 20,000 ft at the poles. Above those levels starts the Stratosphere.
Balloons directly measure temperatures. Satellites measure radiation, from which temperatures are calculated.
Both consistently measure much lower temperatures than the average of 102 computer-generated graphs.
See Appendix 2 and 3
The data in the below images is for a 43-y period.
There is global warming, but it is not anywhere near as much as scare-mongers are claiming.
1) Objective satellite and balloon temperatures increased from 0.00 to 0.5 C, or, or 0.116 C/decade
2) Subjective computer-generated temperatures increased from 0.00 to 1.20 C; or 0.28 C/decade, about 2.7 TIMES AS FAST
The temperature data by satellites and balloons are more accurate than land-based measurements.
See Appendix 2 and URL
Satellite measurements are made many times during every day and systematically cover almost the entire world; +/- 85-degree latitude.
The satellite data is vastly more complete, and accurate than would be gathered by ground stations. (See Appendix 2)
Balloon measurements, made on a sampling basis, are vastly less complete than satellite measurements, but they serve as a useful crosscheck on the satellite measurements.
NOTE: Behind the 102 computer graphs are hundreds of organizations that likely receive a significant part of their revenues from governments and subsidy-receiving wind, solar, battery, etc., businesses.
The livelihood and career prospects of the people creating these graphs is more secure, if they aim high, rather than low.
NOTE: The bottom dotted, squiggly graph is the Russian Model (IMM-C-M4), which is close to the balloon and satellite data.
A more detailed view of satellite temperatures.
Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) and also a member of the CO2 Coalition. Sheahen and the Coalition are collaborating on a brief.
SEPP’s October 8 newsletter contains a summary of a major 2021 paper by Happer and co-author William van Wijngaarden that completely undermines the fake “science” the IPCC and EPA used to support the case of climate alarm.
Sheahen specifically discusses the efforts of Professors William van Wijngaarden and William Happer in their pioneering work in calculating the real-world Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) of the five most common Green-House Gases (GHGs).
Sheahan explains why the approach used by IPCC is faulty, but nonetheless used by its followers, such as the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the EPA.
These faulty methods lead to great exaggeration of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide, methane, and other minor greenhouse gases. . . .
Sheahan shows the stunning agreement between the calculations of van Wijngaarden and Happer (W & H) with satellite measurements (and balloon measurements) of outgoing infrared radiation emitted by the earth to space . . .
Sheahan claims, because of the exceptionally good agreement between observational data and the calculations of W & H, we can conclude the W&H model has been validated.
The W&H model embodies the scientific method.
In that case, it is reasonable to use it to study other hypothetical cases.
It is not possible to do so with IPCC models, which have never achieved agreement with observations. . .
See Appendix 3
The gist of the H&W work is the greenhouse effect of CO2 in the atmosphere is almost entirely saturated, such that any additional CO2 can have almost no additional warming effect.
Here is a chart prepared by Sheahan to illustrate the H&W results.
As atmospheric CO2 increases, say from 380 to 420 ppm, it has less warming effect.
The most warming effect occurs at very low levels of CO2, say 20 to 60 ppm.
A timely and important new paper has just been uploaded to the CO2 Coalition website on nitrogen.
The first half of the paper on the greenhouse warming effect of N2O is quite technical
It is summarized in the first link.
Link to the full paper is at the bottom. Please distribute widely.
Authors: Will Happer, C. A. de Lange, William Wijngaarden and J.D. Ferguson
Nitrous Oxide and Climate – Why restricting N2O emissions is unnece...
Nitrous oxide (N20) has now joined carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in the pantheon of “human-generated demon” gases.
GW scare-mongers view increasing concentrations of these molecules are leading to unusual and unprecedented GW, which will lead to catastrophic consequences for both our ecosystems and humanity.
Countries around the world are in the process of greatly reducing, or eliminating, the use of nitrogen fertilizers, based on heretofore poorly understood properties of nitrous oxide.
Reductions of N2O emissions of 40 to 45 percent are being proposed in Canada , and by up to 50 percent in the Netherlands .
Sri Lanka’s complete ban on fertilizer in 2021 led to the total collapse of their primarily agricultural economy.
The CO2 Coalition has published this paper, which evaluates the GW effect of the N20 and its role in the nitrogen cycle.
Policymakers can now proceed to make informed decisions about the costs and benefits of mandated N20 reductions of this beneficial molecule.
This new paper joins previous CO2 Coalition reports on other greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane.
Key takeaways from the paper:
- At current rates, a doubling of N2O would occur in more than 400 years.
- Atmospheric warming by N2O is estimated to be 0.064 C per century.
- Increasing crop production requires continued application of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer to feed a growing population.
Download the entire PDF Nitrous Oxide
It is dangerous to be correct in matters, where established men are wrong, by Voltaire