COLD WEATHER OPERATION IN NEW ENGLAND DECEMBER 24, 2017 TO  JANUARY 8, 2018-r

COLD WEATHER OPERATION IN NEW ENGLAND DECEMBER 24, 2017 TO JANUARY 8, 2018-r

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cold-weather-operation...

This article describes in detail what happened in New England during an unusual cold period.
As there was insufficient natural gas in storage, increased fuel oil had to be used
When stored fuel oil almost ran out, increased coal had to be used.


This entire situation arose, due to environmental zealots in New York State, Connecticut and Massachusetts banding together to not allow:

 

1) The building of sufficient natural gas pipelines from Pennsylvania to New England

2) The building of sufficient gas and fuel oil storage near gas/oil-fired CCGT plants.

3) The keeping of coal and nuclear plants for standby service, as needed, but pushing for the premature closing of the plants.

 

This is analogous to Germany’s 20-plus-years of ENERGIEWENDE idiocy, etc., which has led to all sorts of very expensive disruptions of the German and European economy and society.

 

Biden’s folks are belatedly “reinventing” THAT wind/solar/battery wheel, with their “Inflation Reduction” Act.

 

This ISO-NE report details the history of the cold period

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2018/01/20180112_col...

 

Pages 13, 37, 42, 48, 49, 50 of the report are of particular interest.

The report served to document a set of unusual circumstances, that are highly likely to repeat themselves in the future, such as:

 

- Very low winter temperatures, lasting several days, which could have been accompanied with low wind and solar conditions.

- Natural gas supply being diverted from power plants to residential and commercial buildings for space heating.

- Oil/gas-fired CCGT plants having insufficient, nearby fuel supply (natural gas and oil) in storage facilities.

- A transmission line failure; the nuclear output decreased, which was made up by burning more fuel oil.

- A major plant having an unscheduled outage.

- Imports via tie lines with Canada and New York State varying up and down. Net imports add about 19% to the total NE grid load, on an annual basis. See page 42

 

The NE area just barely avoided rolling black-outs during the cold period.

If low temperatures had persisted just 2 days longer, the fuel oil supply would have been depleted.

 

NOTE: To rely on the weather to provide electricity is full of pitfalls, as Europe, California and Texas, etc., have found out.

In 2022, there was plenty of hot weather and sunshine, but little wind and rainfall in Europe

As a result, there was much solar electricity, but little wind electricity, and reduced hydro electricity

Nuclear electricity, especially in France, was also reduced, because those plants need adequate cooling water to function.

 

Importance of Stored Fuel Oil to the NE Grid. 

 

Anyone advocating reducing the barely adequate NE oil and gas storage system capacity is seriously irrational.

 

The table, prepared by Warren Van Wyck, shows the lack of sufficient natural gas storage capacity near power plants, which required major quantities of fuel oil to take its place; fuel oil has much higher cost/kWh, and emits more CO2/kWh

Cold Period Days

Oil, MWh

NE gener, %

Sun, Dec 24, 2017

3,176

1.3

Mon, Dec 25, 2017

3,030

1.2

Tue, Dec 26, 2017

10,444

3.5

Wed, Dec 27, 2017

47,719

15.0

Thu, Dec 28, 2017

104,187

28.8

Fri, Dec 29, 2017

100,896

28.8

Sat, Dec 30, 2017

88,587

26.0

Sun, Dec 31, 2017

89,853

26.2

Mon, Jan 01, 2018

95,572

26.9

Tue, Jan 02, 2018

117,398

30.8

Wed, Jan 03, 2018

106,142

30.3

Thu, Jan 04, 2018

79,958

23.8

Fri, Jan 05, 2018

118,898

34.5

Sat, Jan 06, 2018

125,591

34.9

Sun, Jan 07, 2018

129,912

36.4

Mon, Jan 08, 2018

82,052

24.8

.

Closing Power Plants and Constraining Fuel Supplies

 

Various nuclear and coal plants had previously been politically shutdown, instead of being kept for standby purposes, as is done in other countries, such as Germany.

 

Natural gas supply to the NE area, and to NE gas and oil storage systems, had previously been politically constrained.

The Irrelevance of Wind and Solar During Stressful and Peak Conditions 

 

- Solar, 2400 MW nameplate, behind-the-meter (monitored by utilities), on distribution grids, maximal at midday, never exceeded 800 MW. Near-zero solar is guaranteed during late-afternoon/early-evening, when peak demand hours occurred. See page 48

 

- Solar, 83 MW nameplate, before-the-meter (monitored by ISO-NE), on the HV grid, maximal at midday, never exceeded 26 MW. Near-zero solar is guaranteed during late-afternoon/early-evening, when peak demand hours occurred. See page 49

 

- Wind, 1300 MW nameplate, randomly varied up and down between 1000 MW to 100 MW. The lows could occur at any time during late-afternoon/early-evening, when peak demand hours occurred. See page 50

 

The build-out of additional wind and solar capacity, MW, provides a minimal additional predictable, reliable source of electricity, especially during: 1) multi-day wind/solar lulls, and 2) peak demand hours of

late-afternoon/early-evening.

 

Hydro plants with very large reservoirs, such as in Quebec and Norway, and pumped-storage plants, with large upper reservoirs, plus lower reservoirs with pumps, useful service lives about 100 years, are the only economic ways to store large quantities of variable, intermittent, weather-dependent, wind and solar electricity.

 

Using grid-scale battery systems, useful service life about 15 years, would be at least 10 to 15 times more costly per kWh, delivered as AC. See URLs

 

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

History Will Repeat Itself, Unless Sanity Prevails

 

A set of circumstances, similar to the above, is likely to happen more often, if the “leave-it-in-the-ground-recommendations” of RE folks, who likely never analyzed, never designed, and never operated any energy system, would actually be implemented.

NOTE: To rely on the weather to provide electricity is full of pitfalls as Europe, California and Texas, etc., have found out.

In 2022, there was plenty of hot weather and sunshine, but little wind and rainfall in Europe

As a result, there was much solar electricity, but little wind electricity, and curtailed hydro electricity

Nuclear electricity was also reduced, because those plants need adequate cooling water to function.

Comments on Below Image

 

The below image, prepared by Warren Van Wyck, shows the electricity loaded onto the NE HV grid, by source.

The white gap below "System Load" is net imports from nearby grids.

 

Nuclear, orange, is steady. The output step-down was due to a transmission line failure.

Fuel oil was a critical standby source, because natural gas had been diverted to building heating during low temperatures.

The normal use of fuel oil is minimal throughout the year, because it is much more expensive than natural gas.

NOTE: The solar installed capacity, MW, before-the-meter (monitored by ISO-NE, because it is connected to the NE HV grid) is a small percent of the solar installed capacity, MW, behind-the-meter, (rooftops, meadows, etc., (monitored by utilities, because it is connected to distribution grids)

The below image by Warren Van Wyck, shows only 3 energy sources, and the temperature, to clarify/highlight the role played by fuel oil and coal during the cold period of Dec 22, 2017 to Jan 12, 2018; that period included the Holidays of Christmas and New Year.

 

Comments on Below Image and Table

- The stored fuel oil supply, grey, was running very low starting Jan 8, and rapidly decreasing thereafter.

- Coal, black, decreased on Jan 11 and 12. Luckily, the temperatures, red line, were increasing during these days. A big sigh of relief by ISO-NE engineers, who likely knew just how close NE came to disastrous rolling blackouts, or worse.

- The transmission connection to the nuclear plant was repaired within a few days. The nuclear plant, orange, ramped up its output to restore its prior output. This nuclear increase partially reduced the need for coal, black. 

Fuel Oil Minimum Storage Capacity

Fuel oil used by power plants during the DECEMBER 24, 2017, TO JANUARY 8, 2018, cold period was = (1,303,415 MWh/0.50, average efficiency) x (3,412,000 Btu/MWh x 1 gallon/140,000 Btu, LHV = 63.532 million gallons  

The storage capacity should exceed maximum use by at least 20%, i.e., about 80 million gallons NEAR POWER PLANTS.
Maximum use likely occurs during longer cold periods.

It should be abundantly clear, the capacities of NE strategic oil and gas storage systems should be increased, to ensure reliable delivery of electricity service, including for future heat pumps and electric vehicles.


That electricity should be generated by highly efficient, oil/gas-fired, on-demand, CCGT plants, especially during likely combinations of events, that would stress the NE grid. 


Wind and solar would be totally unreliable during such stressed conditions.
Battery storage would be grossly too expensive during relatively rare stressed conditions.

New England

By the way, all of this, including rolling blackouts at ZUB-ZERO temperatures, and a lack of gas and oil for space heating, applies to New England, if:

1) New York State keeps obstructing new gas pipelines from Pennsylvania to New England; THIS SHOULD BE LEGALLY FORBIDDEN AS AN UNCONSTITUTIONAL INTERFERENCE OF INTER-STATE COMMERCE, and

2) The New England oil, gas and coal storage capacities near power plants are not increased by at least 100% to ensure RELIABLE ELECTRICAL SERVICE IN WINTER, WHICH WOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT, IF UNCERTAIN, MOTHER-NATURE, WEATHER-DEPENDENT WIND AND SOLAR WERE FURTHER EXPANDED, AS THE US IS AIMING TO BLINDLY COPY THE DISASTROUS EUROPEAN SCENARIO

 

Table was prepared by Warren Van Wyck

.

Date

Oil, MWh

Coal, MWh

Nuclear, MWh

Sun, Dec 24, 2017

3,176

3,405

96,677

Mon, Dec 25, 2017

3,030

9,565

96,651

Tue, Dec 26, 2017

10,444

18,770

96,634

Wed, Dec 27, 2017

47,719

21,785

96,668

Thu, Dec 28, 2017

104,187

21,682

96,669

Fri, Dec 29, 2017

100,896

21,390

96,690

Sat, Dec 30, 2017

88,587

20,680

96,719

Sun, Dec 31, 2017

89,853

19,817

96,740

Mon, Jan 01, 2018

95,572

20,159

96,731

Tue, Jan 02, 2018

117,398

20,696

96,753

Wed, Jan 03, 2018

106,142

17,957

96,776

Thu, Jan 04, 2018

79,958

20,698

90,060

Fri, Jan 05, 2018

118,898

19,559

80,348

Sat, Jan 06, 2018

125,591

18,232

80,347

Sun, Jan 07, 2018

129,912

19,195

80,397

Mon, Jan 08, 2018

82,052

19,603

80,418

Tue, Jan 09, 2018

14,452

21,431

80,461

Wed, Jan 10, 2018

855

20,422

81,254

Thu, Jan 11, 2018

0

8,352

93,249

Fri, Jan 12, 2018

1

4,972

94,438

1,318,723

348,370

1,824,680

.

FUEL OIL TO THE RESCUE DURING COLD WEATHER

 

This graph, by Warren van Wyck, of energy sources being loaded onto the NE HV grid, during the cold spell of Feb 3 -4, 2023

 

On Saturday Feb 4. 2023, at 6 am, the temperature: Boston: -9 F°, Montreal -20 F° 
Significant fuel oil generation by power plants kept the lights on in New England.

Wind was minimal in the overall picture.

Solar on rooftops, meadows, etc., was significant only during midday

The graph shows:

- Increased fuel oil usage by power plants, because it was diverted to building heating,

- Near-zero imports from nearby grids when temperatures were lowest, because they needed the electricity for their own users,

- Increased NE grid load, i.e., increased electricity demand, as temperatures were decreasing.

 

Cold Weather in Texas

 

During the cold period of Feb 7 to Feb 17, 2021, electricity from wind, natural gas and nuclear were impacted by the cold weather, due to a lack of cold weather protection systems for wind turbines, and insulation of piping and equipment.

 

Forecasted demand was 75,000 MW, but generation fed to grid was 48,000 MW, for a shortfall of 27,000 MW, at 10 am on Feb 16, which required rolling blackouts, during freezing conditions. See image in eia URL

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46836

 

Texas had about 34,000 MW of installed wind turbines, in Feb 2021

Texas had about 8,200 MW of installed solar systems, in Feb 2021

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Texas

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Texas

 

Wind and Solar Not Available When Needed

 

Wind decreased from 22,500 MW at 11 pm on Feb 7, to near-zero at 11 am on Feb 9; the wind decrease was partially counteracted by increased electricity from natural gas plants. See image in eia URL

Wind decreased from 9,500 MW at 6 pm on Feb 14, to near-zero at 9 pm on Feb 15, when electricity demand was high.

Solar, in winter, never exceeded 5000 MW at midday (much less before and after midday)

Solar was 500 MW at 1 pm on Feb 14, when electricity demand was high. See image in eia URL

 

.
These articles and image are provided for reference.

.

ISO-NE REPORT OF 2021 ECONOMIC STUDY: FUTURE GRID RELIABILITY STUDY PHASE 1

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2022/07/2021_economi...

 

DEEP DIVE SUMMARY OF THE ISO-NE REPORT

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/new-england-future-grid-study-iso/...

 

LIFE WITHOUT OIL

Life without oil means many products that are made with oil, such as the hundreds listed below, would need to be provided by wind and solar and hydro.

Folks, including Biden's attendants, wanting to get rid of fossil fuels, such as crude oil, better start doing some rethinking.

The above also applies to natural gas, which is much preferred by many industries

If you do not have abundant low-cost energy, you cannot have modern industrial economies.

APPENDIX 1

 

These articles contain significant information regarding wind, solar and grid-scale battery systems

 

GRID-SCALE BATTERY SYSTEMS IN NEW ENGLAND TO COUNTERACT SHORTFALL OF ONE-DAY WIND/SOLAR LULL

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...

COLD WEATHER OPERATION IN NEW ENGLAND DECEMBER 24, 2017 TO JANUARY 8, 2018

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cold-weather-operation...

ANALYSIS OF WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY LULLS AND ENERGY STORAGE IN GERMANY

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-energy-...

IRELAND FUEL AND CO2 REDUCTIONS DUE TO WIND ENERGY LESS THAN CLAIMED    

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fuel-and-co2-reduction...

BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

HIGH COSTS OF WIND, SOLAR, AND BATTERY SYSTEMS IN US NORTHEAST

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/high-costs-of-wind-sol...

APPENDIX 2

 

These articles explain a lot about the world-wide “Climate Crisis” scam, based on highly compromised surface station measurements, which typically read HIGH.

 

Climate scientists SUBJECTIVELY adjust the readings for use in their SUBJECTIVE computerized-temperature-calculation programs, which are used in the reports of IPCC, etc., for scare-mongering purposes.

 

New Surface Stations Report Released – It’s ‘worse than we thought’

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/new-surface-stations-r...

 

Weather- Just how does it happen?

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/weather-just-how-does-...

 

A summary of the results of three “Physics of the Earth’s Atmosphere” papers, which were submitted for peer review at the Open Peer Review Journal.

https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/19/summary-the-physics-of-t...

 

APPENDIX 3

 

Satellites and balloons measure temperatures of the Troposphere, which starts at ground level, and has an average height of 59,000 ft at the tropics, 56,000 ft at the middle latitudes, and 20,000 ft at the poles. Above those levels starts the Stratosphere.

 

Balloons directly measure temperatures. Satellites measure radiation, from which temperatures are calculated. 

Both consistently measure much lower temperatures than the average of 102 computer-generated graphs.

See Appendix 2 and 3

 

The data in the below images is for a 43-y period.

There is global warming, but it is not anywhere near as much as scare-mongers are claiming.

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...

 

1) Objective satellite and balloon temperatures increased from 0.00 to 0.5 C, or, or 0.116 C/decade 

2) Subjective computer-generated temperatures increased from 0.00 to 1.20 C; or 0.28 C/decade, about 2.7 TIMES AS FAST

 

The temperature data by satellites and balloons are more accurate than land-based measurements.

See Appendix 2 and URL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset

Satellite measurements are made many times during every day and systematically cover almost the entire world; +/- 85-degree latitude.

The satellite data is vastly more complete, and accurate than would be gathered by ground stations. (See Appendix 2) 

 

Balloon measurements, made on a sampling basis, are vastly less complete than satellite measurements, but they serve as a useful crosscheck on the satellite measurements. 

 

NOTE: Behind the 102 computer graphs are hundreds of organizations that likely receive a significant part of their revenues from governments and subsidy-receiving wind, solar, battery, etc., businesses.

The livelihood and career prospects of the people creating these graphs is more secure, if they aim high, rather than low.

https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2021/2/22/latest-computer-c...

 

A more detailed view of satellite temperatures.

APPENDIX 4

Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) and also a member of the CO2 Coalition. Sheahen and the Coalition are collaborating on a brief.

SEPP’s October 8 newsletter contains a summary of a major 2021 paper by Happer and co-author William van Wijngaarden that completely undermines the fake “science” the IPCC and EPA used to support the case of climate alarm. See URL

https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2021/03/WPotency.pdf?x4...

Sheahen specifically discusses the efforts of Professors William van Wijngaarden and William Happer in their pioneering work in calculating the real-world Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) of the five most common Green-House Gases (GHGs).

Sheahan explains why the approach used by IPCC is faulty, but nonetheless used by its followers, such as the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the EPA.

These faulty methods lead to great exaggeration of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide, methane, and other minor greenhouse gases.

Sheahan shows the stunning agreement between the calculations of van Wijngaarden and Happer (W & H) with satellite measurements (and balloon measurements) of outgoing infrared radiation emitted by the earth to space . . .

Sheahan claims, because of the exceptionally good agreement between observational data and the calculations of W & H, we can conclude the W&H model has been validated.

The W&H model embodies the scientific method, i.e., it is reasonable to use it to study other hypothetical cases.

It is not possible to do so with IPCC models, which have never achieved agreement with observations. 

See Appendix 3

The gist of the H&W work is the greenhouse effect of CO2 in the atmosphere is almost entirely saturated, such that any additional CO2 can have almost no additional warming effect.

Here is a chart prepared by Sheahan to illustrate the H&W results.

As atmospheric CO2 increases, say from 380 to 420 ppm; the-40 ppm increase has about 0.05C warming effect.

As atmospheric CO2 increases, say from 20 to 60 ppm; the 40-ppm increase has about a 0.5C warming effect.

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Comment by Dan McKay on September 2, 2022 at 5:10am

It's time to redeclare our nation "The Land of Plenty" and go get it. 

Comment by Willem Post on September 1, 2022 at 9:35pm

Don’t you just love these smart meters?

It is time to get off the grid with solar panels, batteries, a generator and a large hot water storage tank

Of course, you need to have a highly sealed and highly insulated house, with lots of passive solar, to make it economically attractive 

Comment by Thinklike A. Mountain on September 1, 2022 at 8:16pm

SMART METERS (We told you so)

Energy Company Shuts Down Access to Home Thermostats During 90 Degree Heat Wave in Denver
Residents in Colorado were surprised this week when they were unable to adjust the smart meters in their own home.
The government shut down access to their home thermostat in order to save on energy during the current heat wave. It’s for your own good.
Weblink for full article:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/09/energy-company-shuts-acces...

Comment by Dan McKay on August 31, 2022 at 5:28am

Proof of how counterproductive adding solar and wind to the grid is. Renewables bring increased prices, increased emissions and increase loss of dependable generation resources. How thick in the head have you got to be to still promote wind and solar? 

Comment by Long Islander on August 30, 2022 at 8:05pm

Maine Supreme Court sends CMP corridor case back to lower court
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/maine-supreme-court-se...

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

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