GRID-SCALE BATTERY SYSTEMS IN NEW ENGLAND TO COUNTERACT SHORTFALL OF ONE-DAY WIND/SOLAR LULL

Wind systems generate power when the wind is blowing, but zero power when the air is still

Solar systems generate power when the sun is shining, especially around noontime, but generate less power when the sky is cloudy, and zero power when the sky is dark, or when panels are covered with snow.

 

As a result, wind and solar cannot function as dispatchable resources - meaning, they cannot be quickly deployed when needed, such as during the peak-demand periods of late-afternoon/early-evening.

 

This article shows the wind/solar generation shortfall, due to a one-day wind/solar lull

It also shows the electricity drawn from the high-voltage grid to enable grid-scale battery systems to counteract the shortfall

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...

Grid-Scale Battery Systems Paired with Wind Systems

Grid-scale battery systems are increasingly paired with wind systems to reduce the adverse effects on grid stability, due to the variability of wind output, MW.

The battery systems must be capable of adequate ramp rates, MW/min, for charging and discharging, to avoid overheating the batteries.

A utility may require ramp rates of 2 MW/min to 3 MW/min for a 30 MW wind system, to limit grid voltage and frequency excursions. See URL.

A note of caution, NREL is a government, pro-wind entity, which tends to see wind through rosier glasses than private enterprise.

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/59003.pdf

Large-Scale Solar Systems Require Large-Scale Battery Systems

 

Variable clouds are the main reason for rapid changes of solar output, in addition to the daily morning growth and night-time disappearance.

Solar output may decrease by 60% within a few seconds, due to a cloud passing over solar systems.

 

The time taken for the cloud to pass is dependent upon cloud height, sun elevation and wind speed.

These factors need to be considered regarding solar power output forecasting and integrating the variable output into the grid.

The graph shows solar output profiles for ZIP codes in California.

 https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/large-scale-solar-plan...

 

New England Grid Loads

New England power plants, all sources, plus net imports from nearby grids, load about 125 billion kWh/y onto the NE high-voltage grid. That load will be much greater in the future, due to heat pumps and electric vehicles.

Net imports are about 19% of the NE grid load, on an annual basis.

 

Transmission loss is about 2.5%; electricity to distribution grids is 121.875 billion kWh/y

Distribution loss is about 6.5%; electricity to user electricity meters is 113.953 billion kWh/y

 

Grid-Scale Battery Systems Charging, Discharging and Losses

 

Grid-scale battery systems typically are connected to the NE high-voltage grid by step-down and step-up transformers. The below calculations show the electricity drawn from the high voltage grid to charge the battery system, and then discharge the battery system to counteract a one-day wind/solar lull.

 

We make the following assumptions:

1) Greatly increased wind and solar connected to the NE grid at a future date, such as: wind onshore at 12.5%, wind offshore at 12.5%, and solar at 25% of annual grid load, a total of 50%, or 125/2 = 62.5 TWh/y, or 0.171 TWh/d

The required installed wind/solar nameplate capacities would be:

 

Wind onshore = 0.125 x 125 TWh/y / (8766 h/y x 0.29, capacity factor) = 6,146 MW; existing about 1450 MW, at end 2021 

NE has high project costs/MW, about $2,600 in 2019, and low CFs, which means high costs/kWh. See page 42 of URL

https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-08/land_based_wind_...

 

Wind offshore = 0.125 x 125 TWh/y / (8766 h/y x 0.45, CF) = 3,961 MW; existing about 30 MW, at end 2021

 

Solar = 0.25 x 125 TWh/y / (8766 h/y x 0.15, CF) = 23,766 MW, existing about 5,500 MW, at end 2021

 

2) Wind/solar output at 15% of annual average grid load, during a wind/solar lull lasting 24 hours

Wind/solar loaded onto the NE grid would be 0.15 x 0.171 = 0.02568 TWh/d

Wind/solar shortfall would be 0.171 – 0.02568 = 0.14555 TWh/d

 

3) Grid-scale battery systems, connected to the HV gird, provide the entire shortfall, in TWh/d

 

Step-by-Step Battery System Losses

 

The below calculation shows the step-by-step losses of battery systems, A-to-Z basis

 

1) Fed to HV grid via step-up transformer 0.14555, as AC, to make up the above shortfall

Step-up transformer loss at 1%.

From back-end power electronics, as AC, to step-up transformer 0.14700

 

2) Back-end power electronics loss at 3.5%

From battery to back-end power electronics 0.15215, as DC

 

3) Battery discharge loss at 4%

Deduction from battery charge 0.15823, as DC

 

4) Battery charge loss at 4%

From front-end power electronics to battery 0.16456, as DC

 

5) Front-end power electronics loss at 3.5%

From step-down transformer to front-end power electronics 0.17032, as AC

 

6) Step-down transformer loss at 1%

Drawn from HV grid via step-down transformer 0.17203, as AC

 

Battery System Loss, A-to-Z basis

 

About 0.17203/0.14555 x 100% = 18.2% more needs to be drawn from the HV grid to charge the battery systems up to about 80% full (preferably many days before any wind/solar lull starts), than is fed to the HV grid by discharge from the battery system to about 20% full; the loss percentage increases with aging.

 

Battery systems are rated at a level of power, MW, provided for a number of hours, MWh, such as providing 2 MW for 4 hours, 2 MW/8 MWh, as AC at battery voltage, which needs to be stepped up to HV voltage. 

 

Peak Grid Loads on the NE Grid During Wind/Solar Lulls

 

Electricity loaded onto HV grids, such as by power plants, and electricity drawn from HV grids, such as by utilities, are monitored/recorded by ISO-NE

User electricity consumption is monitored by utilities for billing purposes

 

Peak grid load on the NE grid occurs when the highest quantity of electricity is consumed in a single hour.

The grid, by itself, does not store any electricity 

Electricity moves, as electro-magnetic waves, at near the speed of light; electrons vibrate in place at 60 cycles/second.

 

ISO-NE, the grid operator, must ensure NE has more than sufficient power resources to provide the peak load.

The below chart shows the days with the highest loads, MW, on the NE grid, ever since ISO-NE began managing the grid in 1997.

https://www.iso-ne.com/about/key-stats/electricity-use/

 

Peak loads on winter days are about 5000 MW less than on summer days

Peak loads on winter weekends are about 3000 MW less than on summer weekends

Summer peak loads occur during late-afternoon/early-evening, when solar output, MW, has become minimal, and winds typically are minimal as well, according the ISO-NE minute-by-minute operating data, i.e.,

 

- The wind/solar MW loaded onto the NE grid is almost always minimal during peak demand hours. 

 

- Almost the entire peak load has to be provided by other plants, such as oil, gas, oil/gas CCGT, coal, hydro, tree-burning, nuclear, miscellaneous, and net imports.

The gas/oil CCGT plants likely would be highly efficient, up to 60%, combined-cycle, gas-turbine plants, CCGTs

 

The tree burning plants, mostly in Maine, have an efficiency of 25%, i.e., the energy equivalent of 3 out of 4 trees is wasted

 

The NE hydro plants are mostly about 80 years old. Almost all of them are run-of-river plants (no/minimal reservoirs), with high outputs in Spring and low outputs in Summer and early-Fall

 

The miscellaneous plants are farm methane, burning municipal waste, etc.

Burning municipal waste is the epitome of bad manners, spewing high concentrations of CO2, and various toxic pollutants,

including dioxins, per kWh, far in excess of modern coal power plants, which are up to 43% efficient.

 

The net imports are from nearby grids.

The CO2 of imported electricity is charged to the jurisdiction of origin, i.e., not to New England, per EPA and UN standards.

 

Annual Averages are Deceptive During Peak Load Conditions 

 

These sources, during a summer peak load of 27,500 MW (see below image), with an almost-daily wind/solar lull during late-afternoon/early-evening, would have to provide electricity at a rate of 27,500 MW x 8766 h/y x 0.75 capacity factor (assumed) = 181 TWh/y, which would be 181/125 = 1.45 times greater than the annual average load onto the NE grid.

 

The annual average loading rate is 125/365 = 0.3425 TWh/d

A peak loading rate could be 181/365 = 0.4990 TWh/d

The "nameplate rating", MW, of the NE sources connected to the NE grid would be about 32,500 MW (includes reserves), because many NE plants do not, or cannot, operate at "nameplate rating" during peak demand hours. See Note.

NOTE: The MW of unreliable, weather-dependent, wind and solar are not included in the 32,500 MW

They would be irrelevant, because they typically are minimal during the peak hours of late-afternoon/early-evening.

New England Importing More Electricity from Quebec

 

Massachusetts and Maine are aiming to build high voltage, direct current, HVDC, transmission lines from Quebec, via Maine and New Hampshire, to Massachusetts.

The Quebec hydro plants, onshore and offshore wind systems in Maine, and offshore wind systems in Massachusetts would be connected to the lines.

The Quebec hydro plants would counteract most of the variations of NE wind output, 24/7/365

The Norway hydro plants have been counteracting most of the variations of Danish and German wind output for decades. 

The ISO-NE is hoping this set-up would reduce the need for gas/oil-fired CCGT plants, as part of its "Deep-Decarbonization" scenario.

However, the imported Quebec electricity, and counteracting services, may not be available to New England, due to:

 

1) A major ice storm affecting transmission,

 

2) The electricity being needed by Quebec, as California found out during a major US southwest heat wave, when nearby states sent no electricity to California. This scenario is playing out in Europe in 2022, with Norway and France not sending electricity to Germany. This could happen in NE in the future.

 

2021 Economic Study: Future Grid Reliability Study Phase 1: This ISO-NE report regarding high annual percentages of wind and solar on the NE grid, at some future date, does not mention the reliability of multi-day wind/solar lulls during winter and summer, which occur in New England, multiple times per year. See Appendix

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2022/07/2021_economi...

 

NOTE: The below image shows German generation, by source, during a multi-day wind/solar lull in Germany, followed by another multi-day lull, a few days later. The first lull lasted about 100 hours, the second about 50 hours. Germany exported electricity, mostly to Norway, during almost all hours of the 16-day period, to maintain grid stability. 
Such wind/solar lull events happen in New England as well.

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-energy-...

Two Wind/Solar Lulls in Germany in 2020: The below image shows German wind/solar generation was about 2000 MW, while the grid load was about 57000 MW, during late-afternoon/early-evening, on April 23, and again during the early morning of April 26.

Germany: Anti-fossil protests by “leave-it-in-the-ground" people caused politicians to force the closing of some of the traditional oil, gas, and nuclear plants.

However, these plants, and their energy supplies, are needed every day, as the misled German people are finding out much to their physical and financial discomfort.

Additional hot water and gas supply curtailments, and extremely high energy prices, will further increase their discomforts during the coming winter.

Barge traffic on the Rhine River has been partially stopped/restricted, because of low water, which will not be offset until about February/March, 2023.

Normally, Germany imports electricity from France and Norway, but both have a lack of water in reservoirs and rivers, that prevents cooling of French nuclear plants, and requires reduced operation of Norwegian hydro plants.

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/german-electricity-pri...

Norway: Norway, 90% hydro, 10% wind, trying to be a good EU neighbor, produced too much hydro-electricity for export to Germany, etc., in early 2022.

This has resulted in low-reservoir levels, especially in the southern part of Norway, further worsened by less-than-normal meltwater and a West European drought.

The reservoirs will not begin to refill until about February/March, 2023. 
Norwegian electricity exports have been stopped.

Norway likely will have at least 80% hydro and 20% wind, in the near future, which would ease water shortage problems, if net electricity exports were not increased.


Norwegian household electric rates have been "administratively" increased to extremely high levels, from 12 c/kWh to about 40 c/kWh, in the southern part of Norway, which has 80% of the population, to discourage consumption and save reservoir water.

The UK, France, Germany, Italy, etc., likely will be in a recession by end 2022.

NOTE: The unlabelled vertical axis of the below image is grid load, MW, on the NE grid

All-in Turnkey Capital Costs of Grid-Scale Battery Systems; 2020 pricing

 

The battery system would need to provide a certain level of power, MW, and energy, MWh, during a one-day wind/solar lull.

 

At present, the existing power plants, connected to the NE high-voltage grid, augmented with imports, supply the required MW and MWh, during the peak hours of late-afternoon/early-evening

 

During a wind/solar lull, and a required peak load of 27,500 MW:

 

- Almost all solar would be near zero during late-afternoon/early-evening, and

- Wind would be at 15% of annual average, or less, during late-afternoon/early-evening.

 

Wind and solar could not be fed to the NE grid, unless the traditional sources were present to counteract their output variations, 24/7/365.

That means almost none of the traditional sources, and their fuel supplies, can be shutdown.

 

The US all-in turnkey capital costs of complete battery systems in 2020, including land, foundations, fencing, lighting, step-up and step-down transformers was about $550/kWh, as AC at battery voltage, per EIA annual survey reports. See URL and Note

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...


- Battery systems age at about 1.5%/y; the capacity loss would be about 25% in year 15

- Tesla recommends operating battery systems from 20% full to 80% full, for maximum useful service life, about 15 years.

- The battery systems almost always operate well within that range, except during unusual circumstances, such as randomly occurring wind/solar lulls.

- The battery systems likely would not be 100% full at the start of a wind/solar lull, and should not be discharged below 10%.

- We assume 70% full, at start of wind/solar lull, which yields a 0.6 available-capacity factor.

 

All-in turnkey capital cost = 0.147500 TWh, wind/solar shortfall as above calculated x $550/kWh, per EIA x 1.25, aging factor x 1/0.6, available-capacity factor = $169 billion; 2020 pricing. 

All-in turnkey capital cost would be about 169 x 1.245, Tesla escalator = $210 billion; 2022 pricing.

See next section and Notes.

 

The above $210-billion of battery systems, 2022 pricing, is for a one-day wind/solar shortfall. It is based on daily averages derived from annual TWh quantities, and assumes there are no other sources, except battery systems, to make up the shortfall.

 

As listed above, it is likely there would be other sources, including oil/gas CCGT power plants, as standby, to perform filling-in, balancing and peaking services, as needed.

 

NOTE: After looking at several aerial photos of large-scale battery systems with many Tesla Megapacks, it is clear many other items of equipment are shown, other than the Tesla supply, such as step-down/step-up transformers, connections to the grid, land, foundations, access roads, fencing, security, site lighting, i.e., the cost of the Tesla supply is only one part of the total battery system cost on a site.

Future Grid-Scale Battery System Turnkey Costs

 

Proponents of grid-scale battery systems, such as financial advisors Bloomberg, Lazard, etc., have been claiming the cost of grid-scale battery systems would be decreasing to $300/kWh, delivered as AC, at battery voltage, in the near future.

 

Such claims are similar to the mantra "Nuclear power will be too cheap to meter".

Such claims have been, and will be, off-the-charts ridiculous for at least the next 10 years.

 

Example:

 

Recently, Tesla, one of the largest suppliers of grid-scale battery systems in the world, increased its 2021 pricing for a standard module Megapack by 24.5% for 2022. See URL

 

The Megapack pricing, and the pricing for complete grid-scale battery systems, for 2025, likely will be much higher, due to:

 

1) Increased inflation rates,

2) Increased interest rates,

3) Supply chain disruptions,

4) Increased energy prices, such as of oil, gas, coal, etc.,

5) Increased materials prices, such as of Tungsten, Cobalt, Lithium, Copper, Manganese, etc. See URLs

 

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-03-21_15-28-4...

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/tesla-hikes-megapack-prices-c...

Pairing Wind and Solar Systems with Battery Systems

 

Each wind and solar system should be required to have its own battery system to act as: 1) Dampers of output variations, and

2) Storage, in case of wind/solar lulls

 

The minimum battery systems capacity would be would be 6145.8 MW, for a one-day lull; aging and

available-capacity factors are ignored.

There would be about 2500 battery modules, each about 3 MW; some would be down for repairs

Each module would provide 3 MW for 24 hours for a one-day lull; current modules provide at most 4 hours.

The delivered electricity to the HV grid would be 6145.8 MW x 24 h = 147500 MWh, or 0.147500 TWh

The back-end power electronics of the battery systems would produce a synthetic sine wave at 60 Hz, in sync with grid frequency.

Multi-Day and Second Wind/Solar Lulls

 

Wind/solar lulls often last 1 to 3 days, but some lulls last 5 to 7 days, and may be followed by a second multi-day lull a few days later, as happen in Germany (See above images) and in NE, when the battery systems may not yet be adequately full, because they could have been at about 10 or 20% full after counteracting the first lull.

 

In case of a second lull, 1) a spare battery system, and/or 2) adequate standby CCGT plant capacity, MW, staffed, kept in good order, with adequate full storage systems, would be required for continuous electric service.

 

NOTE: I have lived in my house, at 1000-ft elevation, in Vermont, for 32 years. My observations are:

 

1) There is almost no wind from about 5 am to about 10 am, almost every day. Of course, solar is minimal as well, during that period.

2) There is almost no wind from about 5 pm to about 10 pm, almost every day. Of course, solar is decreasing to zero with the setting sun, during that period, which includes the daily peak grid load period.

ISO-NE Daily Dashboard

The dashboard shows the:

System Load Graph

It shows the real-time grid load, MW. Hovering shows the data.

If you click on the rectangle, you get the spreadsheet showing the contribution, MW, by source, on a minute-by-minute basis

If you click on the date, type in a different date, you get the spreadsheet for that date. 

Spreadsheets can be obtained for any day of 2022, or any prior year. See URL

https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/web/charts

Circular Fuel Source Mix Chart

It shows a snapshot, of one particular time, of the real-time contribution to grid load, by source, %

Imports from nearby grids are not shown 

Here is an example during a typical peak grid load period in summer.

The Dashboard showed the following sources and their loads on the NE high-voltage grid on August 5, 2022, at 6:37 pm, in the middle of the peak grid load period.

 

The wind and solar contributions were minimal, as usual

Wind was only 112 MW from an installed capacity of about 1450, onshore + 30, offshore = 1480 MW

Solar was only 57 MW from an installed capacity of about 475 MW on the NE high-voltage grid

NOTE: ISO-NE estimated, on August 4, 2022, at 12:30 pm: 1) Solar on distribution grids at 3,858 MW; 2) Solar on the NE high-voltage grid at 452 MW

The next day, both were minimal at 6:37 pm, during peak grid load hours. See Table 1

NOTE: If NE had installed 5 times the present wind/solar capacity, these values would be about 5 times as much, still of no consequence, compared to the grid load of 20,304 MW at 6:37 pm, i.e., the other generators, plus net imports, provided almost all of the grid load.

  

Table 1/Source

MW

%

Natural Gas

14505

71.48

Nuclear

3336

16.43

NE Hydro; pre-existing 

1722

8.48

Solar on high-voltage grid

57

0.28

Wind on high-voltage grid

112

0.55

Wood burning; 25% eff; pre-existing   

196

0.96

Municipal refuse burning; pre-existing

303

1.49

Methane gas from landfills

35

0.17

Other

38

0.18

Total

20304

100.02

Improved Fuel Mix Chart Not Published for Political Reasons

ISO-NE provides the MW contribution of each source on a five-minute basis. Here is the image for August 4, 2022. This grid load graph reflects the impact of distributed solar systems connected to distribution grids, as discussed below.

The  below graph, prepared by Warren Van Wyck, shows the NE grid is greatly dependent on natural gas, nuclear and imports from nearby grids, and on NE hydro during peak hours.

Any attempt to curtail them, and their energy supplies, would be an-off-the-charts folly

The graph, with MW on the vertical axis and time on the horizontal axis, clearly reveals what happened during a 24-h period.

- Imports from nearby grids, white band at the top, are a significant part of the grid source mix.

- Oil, dark gray, was used during peak demand hours to reduce gas consumption.

- HV grid-connected solar, yellow, was just a sliver of the total load during peak hours.

- Wind, dark brown, was just a sliver of the total load during peak hours

- NE hydro, blue, was maximal during peak hours, because owners saved water all day, so they could maximize output during peak hours, and get paid the highest c/kWh.

- Nuclear maintained a steady output, rain or shine, wind or no wind.

- Natural gas, light blue, provided the most contribution to the grid load, BY FAR.

Without natural gas, the NE economy, and its people, would be in big trouble, similar to Germany, a major wind/solar maven, which is desperately scrambling to replace Russian gas with gas from various other sources.

- Natural gas wholesale pricing, Dutch TTF, increased by about a factor of 5 in Europe, to $221/MWh = $65/million Btu, on August 15, 2022, due to sanctions backfiring; a MWh = 3.412 million Btu

- Natural gas wholesale pricing increased by about a factor of 3 in the US, to $8.77/million Btu, on August 15, 2022, due to Biden exporting our oil and gas and coal.

THE ABOVE GRAPH DOES NOT SHOW THE SOLAR OUTPUT ON DISTRIBUTION GRIDS; 3,858 MW, AT ABOUT NOONTIME, ON A SUNNY DAY

See Note and next section

NOTE: Here's the link to interactive graph of fuel mix for August 4, 2022, which shows the ISO-NE-estimated solar output on distribution grids from rooftops, meadows, etc.; thin line at the bottom.

Graph by Warren Van Wyck

That power is not fed into the NE high-voltage grid, i.e., it stays on distribution grids.

This is a new power source that has grown over the past 15 years.

It is complementary to the power sources connected to the NE high-voltage grid.

Together they serve the electrical requirements (MW and MWh) of the New England economy.

If that complementary output had not been there, such as on an overcast/rainy day, the power sources connected to the NE high-voltage grid would have to increase there outputs.

The Improved Fuel Mix Graph, would use the same data, but would show what happened during 24 hours

ISO-NE likely has Real-Time Improved Fuel Mix Charts, including for the most stressful days, but they are not made public, because they would clearly show wind and solar could not be relied on throughout the year, at peak load periods, which, if revealed to the general public, would rain on the highly subsidized wind/solar parade.

It is well-known, wind and solar provide electricity at random, not when it is needed to help out during stressful days, especially during peak grid load periods.

 

An additional big question remains. What part of the peak electricity loaded onto the grid, MW and MWh, would need to be provided by grid-scale battery systems on stressful days, and on all other days?

Solar Systems Connected to Distribution Grids

The output of these solar systems is seen by ISO-NE as a reduction in grid load.

It is often called "behind-the-meter", i.e., invisible to ISO-NE

ISO-NE estimates the reduction, based on solar conditions throughout New England, for planning purposes, each day.

Here is an example:

 

May 1, 2022, was a rare, very sunny day all over New England. There was an installed AC capacity of about 5,000 MW of distributed solar systems on rooftops and meadows, etc., of which about 2700 MW in Massachusetts, 900 MW in Connecticut, and 475 MW in Vermont. That capacity generated a maximum of about 4000 MW AC, around noontime. See URL

https://www.euci.com/new-england-hits-a-record-low-in-electricity-d...

 

The below image shows the NE grid load graph for May 1, 2022, with and without solar on distribution grids. 
Graph by Warren Van Wyck

 

The grid load was about 7,580 MW, around noontime, with solar.

The grid load would have been about 7580 + 4000 = 11,500 MW, around noontime, without solar.

 

Daily down/up ramping is performed mostly by the flexible, quick-reacting, gas/oil-fired CCGT plants. Those plants also ramp up and down to counteract the random output variations of wind, 24/7/365. 

 

Those CCGT plants, often vilified, because they are "fossil", in fact, are the unsung heroes that make it possible for wind and solar to even exist on the grid.

 

NOTE: Up/down ramping, at part-load, of CCGT power plants is inefficient and more expensive.

They have more Btu/kWh, more CO2/kWh, more wear-and-tear/kWh, i.e., more cost/kWh, just as a car in urban traffic.

That extra expense is not charged to solar system owners, but "absorbed" by CCGT plant owners and ratepayers.

NOTE: When the Irish grid had a minor connection to the UK grid, the CCGT plants, instead of operating at about 50% efficiency without wind, operated in counteracting mode at only 42% efficiency with 17% wind, due to increased part-load and start/stop operation. See URL.

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fuel-and-co2-reduction...

NOTE: The CCGT plants would have to provide much greater loads to the NE high-voltage grid on rainy, overcast days, and on days with snow/ice on the panels, because solar on distribution grids would be minimal.

 

NOTE: None of the solar on distribution grids is transmitted to the NE high-voltage grid. All of it is consumed by users on the distribution grids for their heat pumps, air conditioners, electric vehicles, etc.

These articles and image are provided for reference.

.

ISO-NE REPORT OF 2021 ECONOMIC STUDY: FUTURE GRID RELIABILITY STUDY PHASE 1

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2022/07/2021_economi...

 

DEEP DIVE SUMMARY OF THE ISO-NE REPORT

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/new-england-future-grid-study-iso/...

 

Life without oil means many products that are made with oil, such as the hundreds listed below, would need to be provided by wind and solar and hydro.

Those folks, including Biden, wanting to get rid of fossil fuels, such as crude oil, better start doing some rethinking.

APPENDIX 1

 

These articles contain significant information regarding grid-scale battery systems

 

BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

 

GRID-SCALE BATTERY SYSTEMS IN NEW ENGLAND TO COUNTERACT SHORTFALL OF ONE-DAY WIND/SOLAR LULL

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...

 

COLD WEATHER OPERATION IN NEW ENGLAND DECEMBER 24, 2017 TO JANUARY 8, 2018

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cold-weather-operation...

 

APPENDIX 2

 

These articles explain a lot about the world-wide “Climate Crisis” scam, based on highly compromised surface station measurements, which typically read HIGH.

 

Climate scientists SUBJECTIVELY adjust the readings for use in their SUBJECTIVE computerized-temperature-calculation programs, which are used in the reports of IPCC, etc., for scare-mongering purposes.

 

New Surface Stations Report Released – It’s ‘worse than we thought’

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/new-surface-stations-r...

 

Weather- Just how does it happen?

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/weather-just-how-does-...

 

A summary of the results of three “Physics of the Earth’s Atmosphere” papers, which were submitted for peer review at the Open Peer Review Journal.

https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/19/summary-the-physics-of-t...

 

APPENDIX 3

 

Satellites and balloons measure temperatures of the Troposphere, which starts at ground level, and has an average height of 59,000 ft at the tropics, 56,000 ft at the middle latitudes, and 20,000 ft at the poles. Above those levels starts the Stratosphere.

 

Balloons directly measure temperatures. Satellites measure radiation, from which temperatures are calculated. 

Both consistently measure much lower temperatures than the average of 102 computer-generated graphs.

See Appendix 2 and 3

 

The data in the below images is for a 43-y period.

There is global warming, but it is not anywhere near as much as scare-mongers are claiming.

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...

 

1) Objective satellite and balloon temperatures increased from 0.00 to 0.5 C, or, or 0.116 C/decade 

2) Subjective computer-generated temperatures increased from 0.00 to 1.20 C; or 0.28 C/decade, about 2.7 TIMES AS FAST

 

The temperature data by satellites and balloons are more accurate than land-based measurements.

See Appendix 2 and URL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset

Satellite measurements are made many times during every day and systematically cover almost the entire world; +/- 85-degree latitude.

The satellite data is vastly more complete, and accurate than would be gathered by ground stations. (See Appendix 2) 

 

Balloon measurements, made on a sampling basis, are vastly less complete than satellite measurements, but they serve as a useful crosscheck on the satellite measurements. 

 

NOTE: Behind the 102 computer graphs are hundreds of organizations that likely receive a significant part of their revenues from governments and subsidy-receiving wind, solar, battery, etc., businesses.

The livelihood and career prospects of the people creating these graphs is more secure, if they aim high, rather than low.

https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2021/2/22/latest-computer-c...

 

A more detailed view of satellite temperatures.

 

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Comment by Willem Post on August 22, 2022 at 12:28pm

Warren,

ISO-NE does not see demand. It sees grid load

Utilities see demand user meters.

Comment by Warren Van Wyck on August 22, 2022 at 9:17am

This graph shows the Load with a plot that is not zero-based.  More realistic of 'Grid demand reduction' in my view. 

Comment by Warren Van Wyck on August 5, 2022 at 4:55pm

Excellent commentary about the challenges of relying on Wind and Solar. Here's the link to interactive graph of fuel mix for that day.

Comment by Thinklike A. Mountain on August 3, 2022 at 12:54pm

Electric Car Drivers: Why You Might Not Be Pumped Over Privacy-Jolting Mileage Taxes
https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2022/08/02/electri...

Comment by Thinklike A. Mountain on August 3, 2022 at 11:40am

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job.
A depression is when your lose your job.
A recovery is when Joe Biden loses his job.

Comment by Penny Gray on August 2, 2022 at 7:48am

Well, it's just money, right?  We'll just print some more green backs to support a green future!

Comment by Dan McKay on August 1, 2022 at 7:01pm

The new AI: Absolute Insanity

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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We have the facts on our side. We have the truth on our side. All we need now is YOU.

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Vince Lombardi 

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

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