Net Zero Will Lead to the End of Modern Civilization, Says Top Scientist

In a recently published science paper, Dr. Wallace Manheimer said, it would be the end of modern civilization. Writing about wind and solar power he argued, it would be especially tragic “when not only will this new infrastructure fail, but will cost trillions, trash large portions of the environment, and be entirely unnecessary”. The stakes, he added, “are enormous”.

1) It can be accessed by clicking on the above link. You will see a panel, at the left bottom of which you see PDF. Click on PDF to download and read.

Here are URLs that display the PDF.
2) Click the first URL, then download to get the PDF

Dr. Manheimer holds a physics PhD from MIT and has had a 50-year career in nuclear research, including work at the Plasma Physics Division at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory.

He has published over 150 science papers. In his view, there is “certainly no scientific basis” for expecting a climate crisis from too much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in the next century or so.

He argues that there is no reason why civilisation cannot advance using both fossil fuel power and nuclear power, gradually shifting to more nuclear power.

There is of course a growing body of opinion that points out the Emperor has no clothes, when it comes to all the fashionable green technologies. Electric cars, wind and solar power, hydrogen, battery storage, heat pumps – all have massive disadvantages, and are incapable of replacing existing systems without devastating consequences.

Manheimer points out, before fossil fuel became widely used, energy was provided by people and animals. Because so little energy was produced, “civilization was a thin veneer atop a vast mountain of human squalor and misery, a veneer maintained by such institutions as slavery, colonialism and tyranny”.

This argument reveals why so many rich, virtue-signaling celebrities argue not just for Net Zero, but ‘Real’ Zero, with the banning of all fossil fuel use.

UK King Charles said in 2009 , the age of consumerism and convenience was over, although the

multi-mansion/castle monarch presumably doesn’t think such desperate restrictions apply to himself, and others of his class.

Manheimer notes, fossil fuel has extended the benefits of civilization to billions, but its job is not yet complete. “To spread the benefits of modern civilisation to the entire human family would require much more energy, as well as newer sources,” he adds.

The author notes, the emphasis on a false climate crisis is becoming a “tragedy for modern civilization”, which depends on reliable, affordable and environmentally viable energy.

“The windmills, solar panels and backup batteries have none of these qualities,” he states.

This falsehood has been pushed, by what has been termed, a climate industrial complex, comprising some scientists, most media, industrialists, financers, and legislators.

Furthermore, he continues, this grouping has “somehow” managed to convince many people, CO2 in the atmosphere, a gas necessary for life on Earth, one which we exhale with every breath, is an environmental poison!!

In Manheimer’s view, the partnership among self-interested businesses, grandstanding politicians and alarmist campaigners, “truly is an unholy alliance”.

The climate industrial complex does not promote discussion on how to overcome this challenge in a way that will be best for everyone.

“We should not be surprised, or impressed, those who stand to make decades of profits are among the loudest calling for politicians to act,” he added.

Perhaps one of the best voices to cast doubt on an approaching climate crisis, suggests the author, is Professor Emeritus Richard Lindzen of MIT, one of the world’s leading authorities on geological fluid motions:

Much of Dr. Manheimer’s interesting paper debunks many of the fashionable nostrums surrounding politicized ‘settled’ climate science. It is an excellent read.

Discussing some of the contrary opinions that debunk obviously false claims, he says, it is “particularly disheartening” to see learned societies make definitive claims, when so much contrary information is readily available.

Lindzen points out, over the last 10,000 years, the Earth has almost certainly been warmer. There have been warmer and colder periods, just like today.

To find the off-narrative information, even Google can be used, Manheimer says – though he does note, the company warns, it will not provide information on “claims denying, long-term trends show the global climate is warming”.

This means searches for "off-narrative" information are not displayed, to "channel the narrative", which explains why some UN personnel claim: "We own the science and the social media"

By the way, all of this, including rolling blackouts at ZUB-ZERO temperatures, and a lack of gas and oil for space heating, applies to New England, if:

1) New York State keeps obstructing new gas pipelines from Pennsylvania to New England; THIS SHOULD BE LEGALLY FORBIDDEN AS AN UNCONSTITUTIONAL INTERFERENCE OF INTER-STATE COMMERCE, and

2) The New England oil, gas and coal storage capacities near power plants are not increased by at least 100% to ensure RELIABLE ELECTRICAL SERVICE IN WINTER, WHICH WOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT, IF UNCERTAIN, MOTHER-NATURE, WEATHER-DEPENDENT WIND AND SOLAR WERE FURTHER EXPANDED, AS THE US AIMS TO BLINDLY COPY THAT DISASTROUS EUROPEAN SCENARIO

ISO-NE REPORT OF 2021 ECONOMIC STUDY: FUTURE GRID RELIABILITY STUDY PHASE 1

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2022/07/2021_economi...

DEEP DIVE SUMMARY OF THE ISO-NE REPORT

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/new-england-future-grid-study-iso/...

LIFE WITHOUT OIL

Life without oil means many products that are made with oil, such as the hundreds listed below, would need to be provided by wind and solar and hydro.

Folks, including Biden's attendants, wanting to get rid of fossil fuels, such as crude oil, better start doing some rethinking.

The above also applies to natural gas, which is much preferred by many industries

If you do not have abundant low-cost energy, you cannot have modern industrial economies.

APPENDIX 1

These articles contain significant information regarding wind, solar and grid-scale battery systems

GRID-SCALE BATTERY SYSTEMS IN NEW ENGLAND TO COUNTERACT SHORTFALL OF ONE-DAY WIND/SOLAR LULL

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...

COLD WEATHER OPERATION IN NEW ENGLAND DECEMBER 24, 2017 TO JANUARY 8, 2018

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cold-weather-operation...

ANALYSIS OF WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY LULLS AND ENERGY STORAGE IN GERMANY

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-energy-...

IRELAND FUEL AND CO2 REDUCTIONS DUE TO WIND ENERGY LESS THAN CLAIMED

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fuel-and-co2-reduction...

BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

HIGH COSTS OF WIND, SOLAR, AND BATTERY SYSTEMS IN US NORTHEAST

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/high-costs-of-wind-sol...

CO2 is a Life Gas; No CO2 = No Life

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/co2-is-a-life-gas-no-c...

Net Zero Will Lead to the End of Modern Civilization, Says Top Scientist

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/net-zero-will-lead-to-...

APPENDIX 2

These articles explain a lot about the world-wide “Climate Crisis” scam, based on highly compromised surface station measurements, which typically read HIGH.

Climate scientists SUBJECTIVELY adjust the readings for use in their SUBJECTIVE computerized-temperature-calculation programs, which are used in the reports of IPCC, etc., for scare-mongering purposes.

New Surface Stations Report Released – It’s ‘worse than we thought’

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/new-surface-stations-r...

Weather- Just how does it happen?

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/weather-just-how-does-...

A summary of the results of three “Physics of the Earth’s Atmosphere” papers, which were submitted for peer review at the Open Peer Review Journal.

https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/19/summary-the-physics-of-t...

APPENDIX 3

Satellites and balloons measure temperatures of the Troposphere, which starts at ground level, and has an average height of 59,000 ft at the tropics, 56,000 ft at the middle latitudes, and 20,000 ft at the poles. Above those levels starts the Stratosphere.

Balloons directly measure temperatures. Satellites measure radiation, from which temperatures are calculated.

Both consistently measure much lower temperatures than the average of 102 computer-generated graphs.

See Appendix 2 and 3

The data in the below images is for a 43-y period.

There is global warming, but it is not anywhere near as much as scare-mongers are claiming.

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...

1) Objective satellite and balloon temperatures increased from 0.00 to 0.5 C, or, or 0.116 C/decade

2) Subjective computer-generated temperatures increased from 0.00 to 1.20 C; or 0.28 C/decade, about 2.7 TIMES AS FAST

The temperature data by satellites and balloons are more accurate than land-based measurements.

See Appendix 2 and URL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset

Satellite measurements are made many times during every day and systematically cover almost the entire world; +/- 85-degree latitude.

The satellite data is vastly more complete, and accurate than would be gathered by ground stations. (See Appendix 2)

Balloon measurements, made on a sampling basis, are vastly less complete than satellite measurements, but they serve as a useful crosscheck on the satellite measurements.

NOTE: Behind the 102 computer graphs are hundreds of organizations that likely receive a significant part of their revenues from governments and subsidy-receiving wind, solar, battery, etc., businesses.

The livelihood and career prospects of the people creating these graphs is more secure, if they aim high, rather than low.

https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2021/2/22/latest-computer-c...

A more detailed view of satellite temperatures.

APPENDIX 4

Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) and also a member of the CO2 Coalition. Sheahen and the Coalition are collaborating on a brief.

SEPP’s October 8 newsletter contains a summary of a major 2021 paper by Happer and co-author William van Wijngaarden that completely undermines the fake “science” the IPCC and EPA used to support the case of climate alarm.

Sheahen specifically discusses the efforts of Professors William van Wijngaarden and William Happer in their pioneering work in calculating the real-world Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) of the five most common Green-House Gases (GHGs).

Sheahan explains why the approach used by IPCC is faulty, but nonetheless used by its followers, such as the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the EPA.

These faulty methods lead to great exaggeration of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide, methane, and other minor greenhouse gases. . . .

Sheahan shows the stunning agreement between the calculations of van Wijngaarden and Happer (W & H) with satellite measurements (and balloon measurements) of outgoing infrared radiation emitted by the earth to space . . .

Sheahan claims, because of the exceptionally good agreement between observational data and the calculations of W & H, we can conclude the W&H model has been validated.

The W&H model embodies the scientific method.

In that case, it is reasonable to use it to study other hypothetical cases.

It is not possible to do so with IPCC models, which have never achieved agreement with observations. . .

See Appendix 3

The gist of the H&W work is the greenhouse effect of CO2 in the atmosphere is almost entirely saturated, such that any additional CO2 can have almost no additional warming effect.

Here is a chart prepared by Sheahan to illustrate the H&W results.

As atmospheric CO2 increases, say from 380 to 420 ppm, it has less warming effect.

The most warming effect occurs at very low levels of CO2, say 20 to 60 ppm.

APPENDIX 5

A timely and important new paper has just been uploaded to the CO2 Coalition website on nitrogen.

The first half of the paper on the greenhouse warming effect of N2O is quite technical

It is summarized in the first link.

Link to the full paper is at the bottom. Please distribute widely.

Authors: Will Happer, C. A. de Lange, William Wijngaarden and J.D. Ferguson

Nitrous Oxide and Climate – Why restricting N2O emissions is unnece...

Nitrous oxide (N₂0) has now joined carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) in the pantheon of “human-generated demon” gases.
GW scare-mongers view increasing concentrations of these molecules are leading to unusual and unprecedented GW, which will lead to catastrophic consequences for both our ecosystems and humanity.

Countries around the world are in the process of greatly reducing, or eliminating, the use of nitrogen fertilizers, based on heretofore poorly understood properties of nitrous oxide.

Reductions of N₂O emissions of 40 to 45 percent are being proposed in Canada , and by up to 50 percent in the Netherlands .

Sri Lanka’s complete ban on fertilizer in 2021 led to the total collapse of their primarily agricultural economy.

The CO2 Coalition has published this paper, which evaluates the GW effect of the N20 and its role in the nitrogen cycle.

Policymakers can now proceed to make informed decisions about the costs and benefits of mandated N20 reductions of this beneficial molecule.

This new paper joins previous CO2 Coalition reports on other greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane.

Key takeaways from the paper:

At current rates, a doubling of N₂O would occur in more than 400 years.
Atmospheric warming by N₂O is estimated to be 0.064 C per century.
Increasing crop production requires continued application of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer to feed a growing population.

Download the entire PDF Nitrous Oxide

It is dangerous to be correct in matters, where established men are wrong, by Voltaire

Comment by Willem Post on January 20, 2023 at 4:35pm

Energy Cost Reduction Due to HPs is Minimal

- HP electricity consumption was from my electric bills

- Vermont electricity prices, including taxes, fees and surcharges, are about 20 c/kWh.

- My HPs provide space heat to 2,300 sq ft, about the same area as an average Vermont house

- Two small propane heaters provide space heat to my 1,300 sq ft basement

- I operate my HPs at temperatures of 15F to 20F, or greater; less $/h than propane

- I operate my wall-hung propane heater at temperatures of 15F to 20F, or less; less $/h than HP

- My average HP coefficient of performance, COP, was 2.64

- My HPs required 2,489 kWh to displace 35% of my fuel.

- My HPs would require 8,997 kWh, to replace 100% of my fuel.

- The average Vermont house COP is about 3.34, because the HPs typically operate at about 28F to 35F and above

- The average Vermont house requires 2,085 kWh to displace 27.6% of its fuel, per VT-DPS/CADMUS survey. See URL

https://afdc.energy.gov/files/u/publication/fuel_comparison_chart.pdf

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-019-0199-y

https://acrpc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/HeatPumps-ACRPC-5_20.pdf

Before HPs: I used 100 gal for domestic hot water + 250 gal for 2 stoves in basement + 850 gal for Viessmann furnace, for a total propane of 1,200 gal/y

After HPs: I used 100 gal for DHW + 250 gal for 2 stoves in basement + 550 gal for Viessmann furnace + 2,489 kWh of electricity.

My propane cost reduction for space heating was 850 - 550 = 300 gallon/y, at a cost of 2.339/gal = $702/y

My displaced fuel was 100 x (1 - 550/850) = 35%, which is better than the Vermont average of 27.6%

My purchased electricity cost increase was 2,489 kWh x 20 c/kWh = $498/y

If I were to use my HPs to replace all propane, my savings are about $189/y. See table 1

My energy cost savings due to the HPs were 702 - 498 = $204/y, on an investment of $24,000!!

Amortizing Heat Pumps

Amortizing the $24,000 turnkey capital cost at 3.5%/y for 15 years costs about $2,059/y.

This is in addition to the amortizing of my existing propane system. I am losing money.

https://www.myamortizationchart.com

Other Annual Costs

There likely would be service calls and parts for the HP system, as the years go by.

This is in addition to the annual service calls and parts for my existing propane system. I am losing more money.

Table 1	Vermont HPs	My HPs	My HPs, if 100%	Before HPs
	Per CADMUS survey			Propane
Fuel Displacement, %	27.6	35%	100%	100%
Operation	Down to 28F	Down to 15F	Down to -10F
Purchased electricity, kWh	2085	2489	8997
Standby, kWh	76	91	329
Defrost, kWh	129	154	557
Electricity to HPs, kWh	1880	2244	8111
COP, excl HP self-use	3.3361603	2.64	2.07
Space heat, kWh	6272	5926	16791
Btu/kWh	3412	3412	3412
Space heat, Btu/site	21400000	20220010	57290000	57290000
Efficiency				0.8
Btu/gal, LHV				84250
Unit cost	0.20	0.20	0.20	2.3390
Electricity cost, $	417	498	1799
Propane, gal		550	0	850
Propane cost, $		1286	0
Total energy cost, $		1784	1799	1988
Energy savings, $		204	189

Comment by Willem Post on January 14, 2023 at 11:08am: Vermont cannot repeal its dysfunctional GWSA, because it copied the identical GWSA of dysfunctional California, which is losing 250,000 to 300,000 tax-paying, long-term, well-off, residents PER YEAR.

They are offset by poor, uneducated, inexperienced, dysfunctional, bracero-type people, who, unvetted, from God knows where, walk across Biden’s open border, who are, for free, sucking from the Social Security System, Medicare/Medicaid System, and get free rent, free food, free clothes and shelter, and pay no taxes.

They eventually will take the jobs of similar black and hispanic people who were born in the U.S.

The craziness of it all is off the charts.
It will lead to more uncontrollable crime, chaos, dysfunction and strife in the U.S., a prelude to its downfall.

Comment by Willem Post on January 14, 2023 at 11:06am: GWSA has a “Heat Standard”, that includes “transitioning to heat pumps”

Here is the miserable HP experience of Vermonters.

The VT-DPS had a study performed of HEAT PUMPS in Vermont in 2017.

THE RESULTS WERE MISERABLE, BUT AVERAGE VERMONTERS COULD NEVER FIGURE IT OUT BY READING THE SURVEY REPORT!!!

CADMUS Survey of Vermont Air Source Heat Pumps

CADMUS, an energy consultant hired by the Vermont Department of Public Service, DPS, in 2017, performed a survey of 77 HPs at 65 sites, in Vermont. See URL of CADMUS report
https://publicservice.vermont.gov/sites/dps/files/documents/EVT%202...

VT-DPS was ordered by the Vermont legislature to obtain an “independent” study, because many people with air source heat pumps had complained, they did not get anywhere near the annual energy cost savings stated on websites, etc., of GMP, BED, VPIRG, VT-DPS, EAN, EFFICIENCY VERMONT, etc.,

NOTE:
The CADMUS report was written in such a confusing way, the average Vermonter, including almost all legislators, would not be able to understand it. In fact, they would be more confused by it.

Unless they had a mechanical engineering degree, with applicable HVAC system experience.
I do have the degree and experience, so I could analyze it.

CADMUS used a decades-old, standard, HVAC computer program that takes the hourly temperature history of a heating season (or averages, say 5 heating seasons). The temperature history is obtained from US weather data

The computer program allocates the frequency and duration of temperatures to two-degree temperature intervals, also called “bins”.
See URL of CADMUS report; horizontal axis of figure 14

The space heat to a site is calculated for each two-degree bin, say 32 F – 34 F, 34 F – 36 F, 36 F – 38 F, etc.
The total space heat to a site is obtained by adding the space heats for all two-degree bins.

Figure 14 also shows, the aggregate electricity consumption, kWh, of all heat pumps is steadily increasing with increasing heating load, until about 30 F.

At temperatures below 30 F, whereas the heating load was increasing, the electricity to heat pumps was decreasing!!

That decrease can only happen, if people TURNED OFF their HPs (to save on electricity costs) and, instead, used their much-less-costly-to-operate traditional heating systems, such as oil, gas, propane and wood stoves.

The CADMUS HVAC computer program calculated the following values, as stated in the CADMUS report:

– Space heat to a site was 92 million Btu, of which 25.35 million from HPs, and 66.65 million from other fuels
– Space heat to all sites was 65 sites x 92 million Btu/site = 5,980 million Btu. See CADMUS URL, page 22
– Space heat from HPs was 77 HPs x 21.4 million Btu/HP = 1,648 million Btu. See CADMUS URL, page 21
– Traditional systems provided 5980 – 1648 = 4,332 million Btu, or 4332/5980 = 72.4% of the total space heat.
– HPs provided only 100 – 72.4 = 27.6% of the total space heat for an average Vermont house

The energy cost savings averaged about $200/y, instead of the $1,200/y to $1,800/y bandied about by GMP, VT-DPS, VPIRG, etc.

After the CADMUS report, those overblown estimates disappeared from HP booster websites.

MY OWN HP EXPERIENCE OF THE PAST THREE YEARS

I have three Mitsubishi HPs ($24,000 – $2,400 subsidy from GMP) in my well-insulated/sealed house.
I displace only 35% of my propane Btus, based on MEASURED consumption data during 3 years.

I do not use my HPs below 15 F, because they are less efficient PER HOUR than my efficient propane furnace.

I save about $200/y in energy costs, but if I amortize the cost of the HPs over 15 years, I lose about $2,000/y

HP boosters Bray, McDonald, etc., know about those dreadful HP results in Vermont, and yet they continue shilling for HPs

Heavily subsidized businesses selling/installing/servicing HPs, etc., will be collecting hundreds of $millions each year over the decades, while already-struggling, over-regulated, over-taxed Vermonters will be further screwed out of a decent standard of living, while all that effort will be having ZERO IMPACT ON GLOBAL WARMING.

Comment by Willem Post on January 11, 2023 at 4:18pm: You are right.

It takes a while for MIT scientists, etc., to adjust to the upcoming multi-polar world

The West will certainly be a loser, if it persists in ruinables

Comment by Warren Van Wyck on January 11, 2023 at 12:56pm: It will lead to the end of modern civilization in Western Europe, USA, Canada, etc. -- Russia and China are not stupid enough to embrace this concept other than for window-dressing. They will be masters of the world.

Net Zero Will Lead to the End of Modern Civilization, Says Top Scientist

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law