In the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, a Quiet Reckoning Over Offshore Wind

In the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, a Quiet Reckoning Over Offshore Wind

JONATHAN LESSER , PRESIDENT, CONTINENTAL ECONOMICS 

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Crippling European electricity prices, soaring Northeastern heating bills, looming diesel-fuel shortages, and OPEC+ drama have captured headlines for months.

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Offshore Wind Projects Not Financially Viable

More quietly, offshore-wind energy developers are discovering their projects' economic are no longer financially viable, and need to be renegotiated.

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This is due to: 1) increased inflation rates, 2) increased interest rates, 3) supply chain disruptions, which delay projects and increase costs, 4) increased energy prices, such as of oil, gas, coal, electricity, etc., 5) increased materials prices, such as of tungsten, cobalt, lithium, copper, manganese, etc., 6) increased labor rates.

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This likely will jeopardize the off-the-charts-fantasy goal of having 30,000 MW of offshore wind turbines in operation by 2030.

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The Biden administration must recognize this is an off-the-charts fantasy, but they would NEVER admit it

Biden's handlers will try to scrape together additional $billions of dollars to make their fantasy come true 

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Examples of Not Being Financially Viable

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October, 2021, brought the first sign of troubles, as Massachusetts' Commonwealth Wind project claimed it was no longer economically viable under the terms of the power purchase agreement (PPA), negotiated with the state's Department of Public Utilities.

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Developers asked the state to "pause" finalizing the agreements with the state's electric utilities, a request seconded by the developers of the Mayflower Wind project, to be built nearby.

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Soon thereafter, a New Jersey utility told investors , it was rethinking its Ocean Wind project, to be built off that state's coast.

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All three project developers originally negotiated prices about 100% above wholesale market prices.

All three qualified for the production tax credit , plus additional offshore-wind state tax credits.

All three qualify for a new 30% offshore wind investment tax credit which was not available when they made their initial bids.

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Yet this outrageous increase federal and state largesse has failed to keep the projects afloat.

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After Massachusetts declined to renegotiate the Commonwealth Wind agreement, the developers walked back their initial claim about insufficient reimbursement, saying, in effect, "never mind."

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Whether pressured by the utility or state politicians, Commonwealth Wind quietly backed away from the uproar its filing created.

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However, despite the utility's "no renegotiation" assertion, the project will almost certainly receive additional financing, either through a new PPA or cash subsidies. 

Any additional costs would be charged to ratepayers, taxpayers, and the US national debt 

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Alas, no amount of public funding will be able to save offshore wind's promises of reliable and low-cost green energy, millions of high-paying U.S. jobs, and an economic renaissance (based on high-cost energy) for states that embrace the industry.

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LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 07: Wind turbines generate electricity at Burno Bank Off Shore Wind Farm on December 07, 2022 in Liverpool, England.

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UK Prime minister Rishi Sunak has reversed his position on new onshore wind farms as the government said it will consult on proposals to allow further developments.

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As Commonwealth Wind admitted, UK turnkey project costs are increasing rapidly.

Not only have raw material costs soared—the costs of cement, steel, etc.—but so have financing costs.

Last year, even before interest rates increased, Dominion Energy's projected cost for its Coastal Virginia offshore-wind project was $10 billion, exceeding the original $8 billion estimate.

With the interest rate hike, Dominion's ratepayers can expect a much higher final bill, if the project is ever completed.

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Most European offshore-wind projects were financed with historically low interest rates. Those days are over. .

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The Federal Reserve intends to keep raising interest rates until it tames inflation. For a construction project like Commonwealth Wind's, which likely will cost more than $6 billion, interest-rate increases alone will add several hundred million dollars to its costs each year, even with the new 30% investment-tax credit.

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Insurance and Government Loan guarantees

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Still another issue that will cripple Atlantic-coast offshore-wind projects, but which is rarely discussed, is insurance.

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Although Commonwealth Wind and most of the other proposed projects will be owned by European companies, they will be structured as limited-liability companies, whose only assets are the turbines themselves.

If the turbines fail, whether due to mechanical failures frequently seen in European offshore-wind turbines, or the eastern seaboard's powerful hurricanes, lenders will be handed the keys to a worthless clunker.

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To eliminate that risk—or even the everyday risks of maritime wear and tear—lenders will demand, offshore projects be fully insured.

But that cost, as well as the willingness of insurance companies to underwrite against catastrophic failures or everyday wear and tear, is unknown.

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If private lenders and insurers insist on charging exorbitant premiums, or simply refuse to insure the projects, then what? Lloyd's of London will insure anything for a big premium

Financial realities likely will not dim the green vision of offshore wind's boosters. We can expect states or the federal government to step to provide guarantees of the loans, i.e., lenders would be off the hook.

Any additional costs would be charged to ratepayers, taxpayers, and the US national debt 

And for what?

Even if all 30,000 MW of offshore systems are built, and even if they replaced electricity generated solely from coal, the resulting "savings" in CO2 emissions would amount to less than 0.5% of the world CO2 emissions in 2022, i.e., no reduction of global warming

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But don't expect American policymakers, or world leaders, to accept that reality, which was conspicuously ignored at the recent COP27 summit.

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China and India—which now account for 50% of world CO2 emissions—are planning hundreds of additional coal plants,

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Biden's US offshore wind is just another useless, ineffective, "clean"-energy boondoggle, which will be enriching its proponents at everyone else's expense for decades, and which will make the US less competitive on world markets, which is exactly the intent of the energy-starved EU, whose companies will own almost all of the offshore wind systems.

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Jonathan Lesser is an adjunct fellow at the Manhattan Institute and the president of Continental Economics.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.

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SUPPLEMENTARY ARTICLES

 

NEW ENGLAND

 

By the way, all of this, including rolling blackouts at ZUB-ZERO temperatures, and a lack of gas and oil for  space heating, applies to New England, if:

1) New York State keeps obstructing new gas pipelines from Pennsylvania to New England; THIS SHOULD BE LEGALLY FORBIDDEN AS AN UNCONSTITUTIONAL INTERFERENCE OF INTER-STATE COMMERCE, and

2) The New England oil, gas and coal storage capacities near power plants are not increased by at least 100% to ensure RELIABLE ELECTRICAL SERVICE IN WINTER, WHICH WOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT, IF UNCERTAIN, MOTHER-NATURE, WEATHER-DEPENDENT WIND AND SOLAR WERE FURTHER EXPANDED, AS THE US AIMS TO BLINDLY COPY THAT DISASTROUS EUROPEAN SCENARIO

These articles and image are provided for reference.

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ISO-NE REPORT OF 2021 ECONOMIC STUDY: FUTURE GRID RELIABILITY STUDY PHASE 1

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2022/07/2021_economi...

 

DEEP DIVE SUMMARY OF THE ISO-NE REPORT

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/new-england-future-grid-study-iso/...

 

LIFE WITHOUT OIL

Life without oil means many products that are made with oil, such as the hundreds listed below, would need to be provided by wind and solar and hydro.

Folks, including Biden's attendants, wanting to get rid of fossil fuels, such as crude oil, better start doing some rethinking.

The above also applies to natural gas, which is much preferred by many industries

If you do not have abundant low-cost energy, you cannot have modern industrial economies.

APPENDIX 1

 

These articles contain significant information regarding wind, solar and grid-scale battery systems

 

GRID-SCALE BATTERY SYSTEMS IN NEW ENGLAND TO COUNTERACT SHORTFALL OF ONE-DAY WIND/SOLAR LULL

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...

COLD WEATHER OPERATION IN NEW ENGLAND DECEMBER 24, 2017 TO JANUARY 8, 2018

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cold-weather-operation...

ANALYSIS OF WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY LULLS AND ENERGY STORAGE IN GERMANY

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-energy-...

IRELAND FUEL AND CO2 REDUCTIONS DUE TO WIND ENERGY LESS THAN CLAIMED    

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fuel-and-co2-reduction...

BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

HIGH COSTS OF WIND, SOLAR, AND BATTERY SYSTEMS IN US NORTHEAST

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/high-costs-of-wind-sol...

CO2 is a Life Gas; No CO2 = No Life

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/co2-is-a-life-gas-no-c...

APPENDIX 2

 

These articles explain a lot about the world-wide “Climate Crisis” scam, based on highly compromised surface station measurements, which typically read HIGH.

 

Climate scientists SUBJECTIVELY adjust the readings for use in their SUBJECTIVE computerized-temperature-calculation programs, which are used in the reports of IPCC, etc., for scare-mongering purposes.

 

New Surface Stations Report Released – It’s ‘worse than we thought’

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/new-surface-stations-r...

 

Weather- Just how does it happen?

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/weather-just-how-does-...

 

A summary of the results of three “Physics of the Earth’s Atmosphere” papers, which were submitted for peer review at the Open Peer Review Journal.

https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/19/summary-the-physics-of-t...

 

APPENDIX 3

 

Satellites and balloons measure temperatures of the Troposphere, which starts at ground level, and has an average height of 59,000 ft at the tropics, 56,000 ft at the middle latitudes, and 20,000 ft at the poles. Above those levels starts the Stratosphere.

 

Balloons directly measure temperatures. Satellites measure radiation, from which temperatures are calculated. 

Both consistently measure much lower temperatures than the average of 102 computer-generated graphs.

See Appendix 2 and 3

 

The data in the below images is for a 43-y period.

There is global warming, but it is not anywhere near as much as scare-mongers are claiming.

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...

 

1) Objective satellite and balloon temperatures increased from 0.00 to 0.5 C, or, or 0.116 C/decade 

2) Subjective computer-generated temperatures increased from 0.00 to 1.20 C; or 0.28 C/decade, about 2.7 TIMES AS FAST

 

The temperature data by satellites and balloons are more accurate than land-based measurements.

See Appendix 2 and URL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset

Satellite measurements are made many times during every day and systematically cover almost the entire world; +/- 85-degree latitude.

The satellite data is vastly more complete, and accurate than would be gathered by ground stations. (See Appendix 2) 

 

Balloon measurements, made on a sampling basis, are vastly less complete than satellite measurements, but they serve as a useful crosscheck on the satellite measurements. 

 

NOTE: Behind the 102 computer graphs are hundreds of organizations that likely receive a significant part of their revenues from governments and subsidy-receiving wind, solar, battery, etc., businesses.

The livelihood and career prospects of the people creating these graphs is more secure, if they aim high, rather than low.

https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2021/2/22/latest-computer-c...

 

A more detailed view of satellite temperatures.

APPENDIX 4

Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) and also a member of the CO2 Coalition. Sheahen and the Coalition are collaborating on a brief.

SEPP’s October 8 newsletter contains a summary of a major 2021 paper by Happer and co-author William van Wijngaarden that completely undermines the fake “science” the IPCC and EPA used to support the case of climate alarm. 

Sheahen specifically discusses the efforts of Professors William van Wijngaarden and William Happer in their pioneering work in calculating the real-world Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) of the five most common Green-House Gases (GHGs).

Sheahan explains why the approach used by IPCC is faulty, but nonetheless used by its followers, such as the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the EPA.

These faulty methods lead to great exaggeration of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide, methane, and other minor greenhouse gases. . . .

Sheahan shows the stunning agreement between the calculations of van Wijngaarden and Happer (W & H) with satellite measurements (and balloon measurements) of outgoing infrared radiation emitted by the earth to space . . .

Sheahan claims, because of the exceptionally good agreement between observational data and the calculations of W & H, we can conclude the W&H model has been validated.

The W&H model embodies the scientific method.

In that case, it is reasonable to use it to study other hypothetical cases.

It is not possible to do so with IPCC models, which have never achieved agreement with observations. . . 

See Appendix 3

The gist of the H&W work is the greenhouse effect of CO2 in the atmosphere is almost entirely saturated, such that any additional CO2 can have almost no additional warming effect.

Here is a chart prepared by Sheahan to illustrate the H&W results.

As atmospheric CO2 increases, say from 380 to 420 ppm, it has less warming effect.

The most warming effect occurs at very low levels of CO2, say 20 to 60 ppm.

APPENDIX 5

 

A timely and important new paper has just been uploaded to the CO2 Coalition website on nitrogen.

The first half of the paper on the greenhouse warming effect of N2O is quite technical

It is summarized in the first link.

Link to the full paper is at the bottom. Please distribute widely.

 

Authors: Will Happer, C. A. de Lange, William Wijngaarden and J.D. Ferguson

 

Nitrous Oxide and Climate – Why restricting N2O emissions is unnece...

 

Nitrous oxide (N20) has now joined carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in the pantheon of “human-generated demon” gases.
GW scare-mongers view increasing concentrations of these molecules are leading to unusual and unprecedented GW, which will lead to catastrophic consequences for both our ecosystems and humanity.

 

Countries around the world are in the process of greatly reducing, or eliminating, the use of nitrogen fertilizers, based on heretofore poorly understood properties of nitrous oxide.

Reductions of N2O emissions of 40 to 45 percent are being proposed in Canada  , and by up to 50 percent in the Netherlands .

Sri Lanka’s complete ban on fertilizer in 2021 led to the total collapse of their primarily agricultural economy.

 

The CO2 Coalition has published this paper, which evaluates the GW effect of the N20 and its role in the nitrogen cycle.

 

Policymakers can now proceed to make informed decisions about the costs and benefits of mandated N20 reductions of this beneficial molecule.

 

This new paper joins previous CO2 Coalition reports on other greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane.

 

Key takeaways from the paper:

 

  • At current rates, a doubling of N2O would occur in more than 400 years.
  • Atmospheric warming by N2O is estimated to be 0.064 C per century.
  • Increasing crop production requires continued application of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer to feed a growing population.

 

Download the entire PDF Nitrous Oxide

  

It is dangerous to be correct in matters, where established men are wrong, by Voltaire

 

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U.S. Sen Angus King

THE UNTOLD STORY OF RECORD HILL WIND

The Untold Story of Record Hill Wind, continued

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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We have the facts on our side. We have the truth on our side. All we need now is YOU.

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

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