Let’s review the events and help him make a resolution for 2023.
2021 ended with the 26th annual Conference of the Parties (COP) in Glasgow, Scotland failing to agree to phase out their fossil fuel public enemy number one: coal. Demand rebounded in 2022 and worldwide coal consumption is now forecast to hit an all-time high in 2023.
Early in 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the balance of its Assessment Report 6 (AR6) series, which the United Nations (UN) Secretary General proclaimed was a “Code Red for Humanity.”
The AR6 reports were met with a barrage of international criticism for deceptive reporting practices, overstated warming forecasts, and exaggerated future impacts. [emphasis added]
Then the failure of European solar and wind energy technology (also promoted by Trudeau for use in Canada) enabled the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The salt in the wound was that Europe inadvertently funded the Russian military through the purchase of Russian natural gas and oil at inflated prices.
In 2022 NASA reported that during the pandemic, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were reduced by 5.4% globally, yet the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere went up at about the same rate as prior to the pandemic.
One could infer from this that there are human and/or natural emission sourceswe don’t know about, and if Canada eliminated its 1.5% of global CO2 emissions, which is Trudeau’s Net Zero 2050 pledge, it would make no difference in the atmosphere.
Trudeau’s previous declaration of a climate emergency also fell apart in 2022. Despite the atmospheric concentration of CO2 growing by 13% since 1998, the global average temperature as measured by satellites is no higher than in 1998.
According to the International Energy Agency, in the six years after the 2015 Paris Agreement was signed, approximately $3.8 trillion has been invested globally in green energy technology, yet the amount of fossil fuels consumed is unchanged.
But due to a lack of investment in fossil fuels over the same period, particularly stunted in Canada by Trudeau, the prices of oil, natural gas, and coal skyrocketed as global energy security decreased.
Trudeau rebuffed Germany’s 2022 plea for long-term liquified natural gas (LNG) supply from Canada, stating that he “…could not see the business case…” while world LNG demand surpassed all-time highs.
The year 2022 ended with the 27th COP in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, and the failure to agree to phase out their fossil-fuel public enemy number two: oil.
Additionally, a major loophole was created for the expanded use of their fossil fuel public enemy number three: natural gas. Meanwhile, crude oil and natural gas demand grew to near all-time highs.
The year 2022 may go down in history as the year of the demise of solar and wind green energy, or the year of confirmation that humanity cannot reduce its physical CO2 emissions quickly, cheaply, and impartially.
Or that the UN’s war on fossil fuels enabled a shooting war that the UN was created to prevent.
Because it was the 24th consecutive year without a new global temperature high, perhaps it will be the year of realization that there is no climate emergency(WCD-version-100122.pdf – clintel.org).
Nevertheless, the Trudeau government plans to maintain warp speed on the same course as they have since 2015.
Here are his three biggest 2023 climate agenda legislative files:
1) Reduce Fertilizer And Methane Emissions By 30% By 2030
This is targeted at nitrogen-based fertilizers that produce nitrous oxides (N2O) and cattle that produce methane (CH4). The cost of this plan to farmers and ranchers will be reduced yields and lower farm incomes.
The cost to consumers will be food shortages and higher prices. The cost to Canada will be a reduced GDP and reduced exports. The cost to the world’s poorest will be hunger.
Contrary to the claims of the IPCC, methane and nitrous oxide emissions from all sources, human and natural, are negligible contributors to global warming.
We now have solid, scientific method-compliant mathematics to show that it would take over 1,000 years of methane emissions and 1,500 years of nitrous oxide emissions at the current rates to each cause 1°C of global warming.
2) Increasing Fuel Carbon Tax And Ethanol Content
In Canada, we have a federal carbon tax that equates to 11 cents per liter of gasoline (31 U.S. cents per gallon). That tax will rise by 3.3 cents per liter in 2023 (9.3 U.S. cents per gallon).
In 2023, a new Clean Fuel Standard is set to be applied, which will increase the cost of gasoline by a further estimated 13 cents per liter (37 U.S. cents per gallon).
Higher prices will not reduce gasoline consumption, because the demand curve for gasoline in Canada is rigid. That means we will still buy as much gasoline as we did before because, for the most part, driving is the only way we can get to the places we need to be.
The Clean Fuel Standard will not reduce CO2 emissions, because the easiest way for refiners to meet it is to blend more ethanol into gasoline (up to 15 percent).
Ethanol produces the same amount of CO2 emissions in the same engine for the same distance driven; they are simply not counted in the total.
The cost to Canadians will be inflationary fuel prices, and the diversion of more agricultural yields from food production to fuel production.
3) An Emissions Cap On Our Largest Industry
Three of the most important facts about the Canadian oil and gas industry are:
- It is the fourth largest producer in the world.
- It can keep up this pace of production for at least another century.
- Along with the U.S., Canada is the only oil-and-gas superpower that is a free democracy.
The Trudeau government has restricted the growth of oil and gas in Canada by canceling export pipelines, banning export tanker routes, and implementing taxes on CO2 emissions from production operations.
In 2023, they are seeking to cap the total emissions from the sector, which would effectively end the growth of the industry in Canada.
There are two serious flaws in this policy for reducing CO2 emissions. First, any increase in global oil and gas demand will probably be met by an autocratic regime with little environmental transparency (the least of many unsavory attributes).
Second, we now know that it will take at least a century (more if we have clouds) for the current rate of CO2 emissions to raise the global temperature by approximately 1°C.
During those 100 years, we will probably transition away from fossil fuels, but it should be on a reasonable time scale, based on scientific innovation that is economically sound with real environmental benefits.
As Sheik Yamani, the former Saudi oil minister predicted, “The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.”
The cost to Canadians of an emissions cap on oil and gas production is our reduced national prosperity (the industry is 5.7% of our GDP), while the cost to our allies is energy security and the enrichment of dictators.
Trudeau’s 2023 New Year’s Climate Resolution
The IPCC’s 35-year quest to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has failed, and all their forecasts of global temperature increases due to those emissions have proven to be greatly exaggerated.
The UN’s obsession with climate change set the precedent conditions for its failure to meet its charter objective of maintaining peace.
Global fossil-fuel use is growing along with CO2 emissions to new highs, causing Canada’s insignificant emissions to become even more insignificant.
Canada continues to fail to meet every emissions reduction target it has ever set, but it doesn’t matter because even current global CO2 emissions are not significantly affecting temperatures.
The logical extension to all this provides a great 2023 New Year’s resolution for Trudeau:
Stop and think it through!
Review the failures of 2022, evaluate the realities of 2023, and recalibrate climate policy based on the scientific method where physical observations eclipse contrived forecasts.
Give a reprieve to farmers and ranchers, a break on fuel prices to Canadians, and access to secure, democratic Canadian hydrocarbon energy to our allies.
Ron Barmby (www.ronaldbarmby.ca) is a Professional Engineer with a Bachelor’s and Master’s degree, whose 40+ year career in the energy sector has taken him to over 40 countries on five continents. His book, Sunlight on Climate Change: A Heretic’s Guide to Global Climate Hysteria (Amazon, Barnes & Noble), explains in layman’s terms the science of how natural and human-caused global warming work.
By the way, all of this, including rolling blackouts at ZUB-ZERO temperatures, and a lack of gas and oil for space heating, applies to New England, if:
1) New York State keeps obstructing new gas pipelines from Pennsylvania to New England; THIS SHOULD BE LEGALLY FORBIDDEN AS AN UNCONSTITUTIONAL INTERFERENCE OF INTER-STATE COMMERCE, and
2) The New England oil, gas and coal storage capacities near power plants are not increased by at least 100% to ensure RELIABLE ELECTRICAL SERVICE IN WINTER, WHICH WOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT, IF UNCERTAIN, MOTHER-NATURE, WEATHER-DEPENDENT WIND AND SOLAR WERE FURTHER EXPANDED, AS THE US AIMS TO BLINDLY COPY THAT DISASTROUS EUROPEAN SCENARIO
.
ISO-NE REPORT OF 2021 ECONOMIC STUDY: FUTURE GRID RELIABILITY STUDY PHASE 1
https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2022/07/2021_economi...
DEEP DIVE SUMMARY OF THE ISO-NE REPORT
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/new-england-future-grid-study-iso/...
LIFE WITHOUT OIL
Life without oil means many products that are made with oil, such as the hundreds listed below, would need to be provided by wind and solar and hydro.
Folks, including Biden's attendants, wanting to get rid of fossil fuels, such as crude oil, better start doing some rethinking.
The above also applies to natural gas, which is much preferred by many industries
If you do not have abundant low-cost energy, you cannot have modern industrial economies.
APPENDIX 1
These articles contain significant information regarding wind, solar and grid-scale battery systems
GRID-SCALE BATTERY SYSTEMS IN NEW ENGLAND TO COUNTERACT SHORTFALL OF ONE-DAY WIND/SOLAR LULL
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...
COLD WEATHER OPERATION IN NEW ENGLAND DECEMBER 24, 2017 TO JANUARY 8, 2018
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cold-weather-operation...
ANALYSIS OF WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY LULLS AND ENERGY STORAGE IN GERMANY
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-energy-...
IRELAND FUEL AND CO2 REDUCTIONS DUE TO WIND ENERGY LESS THAN CLAIMED
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fuel-and-co2-reduction...
BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...
HIGH COSTS OF WIND, SOLAR, AND BATTERY SYSTEMS IN US NORTHEAST
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/high-costs-of-wind-sol...
APPENDIX 2
These articles explain a lot about the world-wide “Climate Crisis” scam, based on highly compromised surface station measurements, which typically read HIGH.
Climate scientists SUBJECTIVELY adjust the readings for use in their SUBJECTIVE computerized-temperature-calculation programs, which are used in the reports of IPCC, etc., for scare-mongering purposes.
New Surface Stations Report Released – It’s ‘worse than we thought’
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/new-surface-stations-r...
Weather- Just how does it happen?
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/weather-just-how-does-...
A summary of the results of three “Physics of the Earth’s Atmosphere” papers, which were submitted for peer review at the Open Peer Review Journal.
https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/19/summary-the-physics-of-t...
APPENDIX 3
Satellites and balloons measure temperatures of the Troposphere, which starts at ground level, and has an average height of 59,000 ft at the tropics, 56,000 ft at the middle latitudes, and 20,000 ft at the poles. Above those levels starts the Stratosphere.
Balloons directly measure temperatures. Satellites measure radiation, from which temperatures are calculated.
Both consistently measure much lower temperatures than the average of 102 computer-generated graphs.
See Appendix 2 and 3
The data in the below images is for a 43-y period.
There is global warming, but it is not anywhere near as much as scare-mongers are claiming.
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...
1) Objective satellite and balloon temperatures increased from 0.00 to 0.5 C, or, or 0.116 C/decade
2) Subjective computer-generated temperatures increased from 0.00 to 1.20 C; or 0.28 C/decade, about 2.7 TIMES AS FAST
The temperature data by satellites and balloons are more accurate than land-based measurements.
See Appendix 2 and URL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset
Satellite measurements are made many times during every day and systematically cover almost the entire world; +/- 85-degree latitude.
The satellite data is vastly more complete, and accurate than would be gathered by ground stations. (See Appendix 2)
Balloon measurements, made on a sampling basis, are vastly less complete than satellite measurements, but they serve as a useful crosscheck on the satellite measurements.
NOTE: Behind the 102 computer graphs are hundreds of organizations that likely receive a significant part of their revenues from governments and subsidy-receiving wind, solar, battery, etc., businesses.
The livelihood and career prospects of the people creating these graphs is more secure, if they aim high, rather than low.
https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2021/2/22/latest-computer-c...
A more detailed view of satellite temperatures.
APPENDIX 4
Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) and also a member of the CO2 Coalition. Sheahen and the Coalition are collaborating on a brief.
SEPP’s October 8 newsletter contains a summary of a major 2021 paper by Happer and co-author William van Wijngaarden that completely undermines the fake “science” the IPCC and EPA used to support the case of climate alarm.
Sheahen specifically discusses the efforts of Professors William van Wijngaarden and William Happer in their pioneering work in calculating the real-world Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) of the five most common Green-House Gases (GHGs).
Sheahan explains why the approach used by IPCC is faulty, but nonetheless used by its followers, such as the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the EPA.
These faulty methods lead to great exaggeration of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide, methane, and other minor greenhouse gases. . . .
Sheahan shows the stunning agreement between the calculations of van Wijngaarden and Happer (W & H) with satellite measurements (and balloon measurements) of outgoing infrared radiation emitted by the earth to space . . .
Sheahan claims, because of the exceptionally good agreement between observational data and the calculations of W & H, we can conclude the W&H model has been validated.
The W&H model embodies the scientific method.
In that case, it is reasonable to use it to study other hypothetical cases.
It is not possible to do so with IPCC models, which have never achieved agreement with observations. . .
See Appendix 3
The gist of the H&W work is the greenhouse effect of CO2 in the atmosphere is almost entirely saturated, such that any additional CO2 can have almost no additional warming effect.
Here is a chart prepared by Sheahan to illustrate the H&W results.
As atmospheric CO2 increases, say from 380 to 420 ppm, it has less warming effect.
The most warming effect occurs at very low levels of CO2, say 20 to 60 ppm.
APPENDIX 5
A timely and important new paper has just been uploaded to the CO2 Coalition website on nitrogen.
The first half of the paper on the greenhouse warming effect of N2O is quite technical
It is summarized in the first link.
Link to the full paper is at the bottom. Please distribute widely.
Authors: Will Happer, C. A. de Lange, William Wijngaarden and J.D. Ferguson
Nitrous Oxide and Climate – Why restricting N2O emissions is unnece...
Nitrous oxide (N20) has now joined carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in the pantheon of “human-generated demon” gases.
GW scare-mongers view increasing concentrations of these molecules are leading to unusual and unprecedented GW, which will lead to catastrophic consequences for both our ecosystems and humanity.
Countries around the world are in the process of greatly reducing, or eliminating, the use of nitrogen fertilizers, based on heretofore poorly understood properties of nitrous oxide.
Reductions of N2O emissions of 40 to 45 percent are being proposed in Canada , and by up to 50 percent in the Netherlands .
Sri Lanka’s complete ban on fertilizer in 2021 led to the total collapse of their primarily agricultural economy.
The CO2 Coalition has published this paper, which evaluates the GW effect of the N20 and its role in the nitrogen cycle.
Policymakers can now proceed to make informed decisions about the costs and benefits of mandated N20 reductions of this beneficial molecule.
This new paper joins previous CO2 Coalition reports on other greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane.
Key takeaways from the paper:
- At current rates, a doubling of N2O would occur in more than 400 years.
- Atmospheric warming by N2O is estimated to be 0.064 C per century.
- Increasing crop production requires continued application of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer to feed a growing population.
Download the entire PDF Nitrous Oxide
It is dangerous to be correct in matters, where established men are wrong, by Voltaire
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