AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS DO NOT ECONOMICCALLY DISPLACE FOSSIL FUEL BTUs IN COLD CLIMATES

This article should be read by the Vermont Environment and Energy Committee and all Vermont legislators, so they understand the short-comings of air source heat pumps at low temperatures, when operated in houses, other than highly sealed and highly insulated houses.

 

Air source heat pumps will not economically displace anywhere near 100% of fossil Btu in existing Vermont buildings, weatherized or not.

 

The Vermont clean heating standard, CHS, modified or not, is deeply flawed. It is putting the horse behind the cart, because they are blinded by generous subsidies for heat pumps.

 

Statewide Building Code

 

Vermont needs an enforced building code for all new and deeply retrofitted buildings. The code would include R-40 walls, R-60 roofs, R-20 basements, R-10 doors, R-7 triple-pane windows, air-to-air heat recovery systems, highly sealed and highly insulated, and arranged for high levels of passive solar.

 

Such buildings would use about 1/3 of the energy of existing Vermont buildings

 

With ground source heat pumps, they would yield a much better CO2 reduction than is possible with air source heat pumps.

 

Ground Source Heat Pumps for 100% Fossil Fuel Displacement

 

To achieve significant reductions of annual energy use by buildings for heating, cooling and electricity, you have to:

 

1) First build buildings, or deeply retrofit buildings, according to the above proposed building code; “weatherizing” is just a band-aid

 

2) Then you install ground source heat pumps, to economically displace 100% of fossil fuels.

 

Ground source heat pumps are efficient on a year-round basis, even when it is minus 30F outside.

 

My brother, living about one hour north of Oslo, Norway, has ground source heat pumps in his house.

It is typically done in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, etc.

Their electric grid has a very low CO2/kWh, because of nuclear, hydro and wind (mostly Denmark)

It is a rational, engineering approach.

 

Vermont Governor Scott talking about “leaning towards approval of a modified CHS” is unwise.

It is a fool’s errand, a feel-good, political approach.

It has nothing to do with common engineering sense.

 

Please read these articles, to get up to speed.

 

VERMONT’S GLOBAL WARMING SOLUTIONS ACT, A DISASTER IN THE MAKING
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-s-global-warmi...

 

THE GLOBAL WARMING SOLUTIONS ACT A DECADES-LONG BURDEN ON VERMONT
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-global-warming-sol...

 

My House with Air Source Heat Pumps

 

In my well-sealed and well-insulated house, built in 1986, with 3 Mitsubishi air source heat pumps with 6 heads, after two years of operating data:

 

- My ASHPs provided about 35% of the total space heat

- My energy cost savings were about $200/y 

 

If I amortized my $24,000 investment in the heat pumps, the annual payment would be at least $2,000/y, which would completely wipe out any energy cost savings.

 

This article has detailed calculations regarding annual cost reduction and CO2 reduction

 

HEAT PUMPS ARE MONEY LOSERS IN MY VERMONT HOUSE, AS THEY ARE IN ALMOST ALL NEW ENGLAND HOUSES

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/heat-pumps-are-money-l...

 

I typically operate my heat pumps down to 15F to 20F, depending on passive solar gain, and wind conditions.

Operating the heat pumps below those temperatures would incur a greater hourly cost, $/h, compared with using my efficient Viessmann propane furnace.

 

However, due to recent increases of propane prices, I likely will operate my heat pumps down to about 10F to 15F, which means, I will displace more than 35% of fossil fuel Btus with electricity Btus, and will have a greater CO2 reduction.

 

Average Vermont House

 

Based on my many years of energy systems analysis experience, I claim, the average Vermont house is totally unsuitable for air source heat pumps.

It is down-right criminal for New England governments to cajole/browbeat/scare/force people to install air source heat pumps in such houses, as would be the case with the Vermont CHS.

 

CADMUS Survey of Vermont Air Source Heat Pumps

 

CADMUS, an energy consultant hired by the Vermont Department of Public Service in 2017, performed a survey of 77 ASHPs at 65 sites, in Vermont. See URL of CADMUS report

https://publicservice.vermont.gov/sites/dps/files/documents/EVT%202...

 

VT-DPS was ordered by the Vermont legislature to obtain an “independent” study, because many people with air source heat pumps had complained, they did not get anywhere near the annual energy cost savings stated on websites, etc., of GMP, BED, VPIRG, VT-DPS, EAN, EFFICIENCY VERMONT, etc.,

 

NOTE: The CADMUS report was written in such a confusing way, the average Vermonter, including almost all legislators, would not be informed by it, and would be more confused by it, unless they had a mechanical engineering degree, with applicable experience.

I do have the degree and experience, so I could analyze it. 

 

EXCERPT from:

 

COST SAVINGS OF AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS ARE NEGATIVE IN VERMONT, MAINE, ETC.
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cost-savings-of-air-sou...

 

CADMUS used a standard HVAC computer program that takes the hourly temperature history of a heating season (obtained from US weather data), and allocates the frequency and duration of temperatures to two-degree temperature intervals, also called “bins”.

See URL of CADMUS report; horizontal line of figure 14

The space heat to a site is calculated for each two-degree bin, say 34F – 36F
The total space heat to a site is obtained by adding the space heats for all two-degree bins.

 

Figure 14 also shows the aggregate electricity consumption, kWh, of all heat pumps is steadily increasing with increasing heating load, until about 30F. At temperatures below 30F, whereas, the heating load was increasing, but the electricity to heat pumps was decreasing!!

 

People turned off their heat pumps (to save on electricity costs) and, instead, used their much-less-costly-to-operate traditional heating systems, such as oil, gas, propane and wood stoves.

 

The CADMUS HVAC computer program calculated:

 

– Space heat to a site was 92 million Btu, of which 25.35 million from HPs, and 66.65 million from other fuels
– Space heat to all sites was 65 sites x 92 million Btu/site = 5,980 million Btu. See URL, page 22
– Space heat from HPs was 77 HPs x 21.4 million Btu/HP = 1,648 million Btu. See URL, page 21
– Traditional systems provided 5980 – 1648 = 4,332 million Btu, or 4332/5980 = 72.4% of the total space heat.
HPs provided only 100 – 72.4 = 27.6% of the total space heat for an average Vermont house

 

The energy cost savings averaged about $200/y, instead of the $1,200/y to $1,800/y bandied about by GMP, VT-DPS, VPIRG, etc. After the CADMUS report, those estimates disappeared from booster websites. See URLs.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/air-source-heat-pumps-a...
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fact-checking-regarding...
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-baseless-claims...

 

The CADMUS report data, obtained from various pages in the report, after much sleuthing, is summarized in table 4

Table 4/Space heat, per CADMUS

Sites

Million Btu/site

 Million Btu

%

Heat to sites

65

92.00

5,980

 URL, page 22

ASHPs

 Million Btu/ASHP

 

Heat from ASHPs

1648/5980

77

21.40

1,648

27.6

URL, page 21

Heat from traditional

 4332/5980

4,332

72.4

.

Million Btu/site

%

Heat from ASHPs, on average

1648/65

25.35

27.6

Heat from traditional, on average

92.00 – 25.35 = 66.65

66.65

72.4

92.00

 

 

Views: 133

Comment

You need to be a member of Citizens' Task Force on Wind Power - Maine to add comments!

Join Citizens' Task Force on Wind Power - Maine

Comment by Willem Post on May 25, 2022 at 1:57pm

It is well-known, tele-marketers purchase lists of names of people who buy certain goods, such as certain types of clothes, and sell the lists to other companies who sell similar clothes, who then send THEIR catalogs to YOUR house.

 

It is well-known, law-enforcement and intelligence agencies geo-track record mobile phone conversations and mobile phone movements, to nab criminals and terrorists.

 

There are companies that collect geo-tracking data and sell the data.

Telemarketers, or anybody, can purchase the data of each person's mobile phone.

 

The data provides detailed information regarding where YOUR phone, or tens of thousands of phones, travelled over a chosen period of time, and how long the phones stayed at each location.

 

A video was prepared, with input from a private geo-tracking company, which used the geo-tracking data of at least 2,000 MULES, in five swing states, during the 2020 Election

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/bombshell-video-shows-woma...

 

People, called MULES, were used to pick up PREPARED ballots at ballot preparation centers, run by “non-profits”, financed by folks such as Zuckerberg of Facebook and Soros, of Hungary, and deliver the ballots (mostly late at night) to various DROP BOXES, around the clock, as recorded on videos.

 

The drop boxes have video cameras, as required by law, that are far enough away, so no one could make out much details.

Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook, donated about $400 million from his own wealth to finance the installation of drop boxes all over the US, and especially in the swing states.

 

Click to download the video to watch the details.

 

The first part of the video are clips from 2020 television news shows, and talking heads. You can skip those and fast forward to watch an explanation by geo-tracking experts regarding how the data was gathered and processed.

 

Click to Download

2000Mules.mp4

0 bytes

 

It was found, after a lot of data filtering analysis:

 

On a typical day, a MULE visits multiple ballot preparation centers to pick up prepared ballots, and delivers them to many drop boxes, in small batches, about 3 to 10 ballots per drop box, to avoid stuffing suspicions. The slots are narrow, so only one ballot can be fed at a time.

Sometimes Mules take a picture of the drop box and/or ballots, to prove the ballots were delivered, and to get paid up to $20/ballot.

 

The filtering criteria of a MULE “delivery trip” are to:

 

1) Visit at least 10 drop boxes, as shown on videos.

2) Deposit at least 5 ballots/drop box, as shown on videos.

 

Many mules often visited 50, 60, 70 drop boxes on a "delivery route"

They were instructed not to deposit more than 10 ballots, to avoid stuffing suspicions.

 

The data analysts used 4 MILLION minutes of videos at drop boxes, in all US states.

It turns out some drop boxes had no video cameras, or had video cameras, but they were turned off, in violation of the law.

 

The table shows, in Michigan, a swing state, there were 500 MULES, who each visited an average of 50 drop boxes, and deposited an average of 5 ballots per drop box, as recorded on videos at drop boxes.

 

All five swing states were credited to Biden, but the drop box totals exceeded Biden’s margin, i.e., all five states should have been credited to Trump, which would have re-elected him.

 

Remember, there must have been major panic, because, all five states stopped the counting at about 10 pm on Election Night, because Trump was just too far ahead of Biden.

 

Obviously, the drop box deliveries before the election had not been enough.

ADDITIONAL deliveries, by van during early morning hours, after the election, in Detroit, on video, or double counting, by pre-selected Democrat operatives, in Georgia, on video, was required to get Biden “elected” 

 

Mules

Drop box

Ballot/drop box

Total

Michigan

500

50

5

125000

Wisconsin

100

28

5

14000

Georgia

250

24

5

30000

Arizona

200

20

5

20000

Philadelphia

1100

50

5

275000

2150

464000

.

Elections in Europe

 

In Germany, 85 million people, and France 75 million people, there are 

 

No drop boxes

No mail-in ballots

No ballot harvesting

No early voting

 

Every CITIZEN has a personal identity card with a unique number

The cards of non-citizens are identical, but have a different color; THEY DO NO VOTE

 

A passport, which has the same bio information, can be used instead of an identity card

The passports of non-citizens have a different color

 

The identity cards and passports are very difficult to forge.

 

Your address on the card determines your location to vote

There are NO REGISTERED VOTER LISTS

 

No machines and computers are used, by LAW

All ballots are hand counted

The count takes about 2 to 3 days to complete, as was demonstrated in Franc a few weeks ago.

 

The above should be the US national standard for all elections, including state and local elections

 

 

Comment by Willem Post on May 24, 2022 at 8:03am

Art,

 

Your heating season hours are much less than total hours in a year, so if 200 heating season hours are between +5 and -20 F, then your Rinnai has to work pretty hard during these hours when heating demand is highest.

 

I assume your heat pump is turned off at 15 F, because below those temperatures, your heat pump would be inefficient, compared to your Rinnai

 

I would like to see your calculations that indicate the heat pump pays for itself in three years.

If the turnkey cost was about $4,500, your energy cost savings would have to be $1,500/y, which is not possible, according to the CADMUS survey.

 

How much did it cost to install the heat pump?

What is the capacity in Btu/h, at 47F?

 

How much did it cost to install the Rennai unit?

What is the capacity in Btu/h?

 

How much of your house is heated by the heat pump?

Do you use other propane heaters in addition to the Rinnai unit?

 

What was propane consumption, gallon, for space heating, before heat pump?

What was propane consumption, gallon, for space heating, after heat pump?

What was electricity consumption increase, due to heat pump?

Comment by Willem Post on May 21, 2022 at 9:28am

Please read

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/05/20/what-is-the-full-cost/

Always remember, the more installed MW of wind, solar and batteries, etc., per household, the higher the household electric rates, as proven by Denmark and Germany, the poster children of energy system insanity.


https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/high-costs-of-wind-sol...

This has been known and written about for about 15 years.

This article introduces a lot of complex concepts that most people would not understand, unless they had engineering degrees and MBAs.

Luckily, figure 2 comes to the rescue

Figure 2 clearly shows, Germany’s ENEGIEWENDE has been a miserable failure, despite 20 years of hype.

It has been extremely costly to German households and the German economy, i.e., the FCOE has been very high.

The authors should have estimated the German FCOE as a methodology example for other countries. It would have greatly improved their article.

A Future with Energy Prices Tied to Gold

Germans, and all of Europe, have been living in la-la-land, due to plentiful, low-cost oil, gas and coal from Russia, at extremely low prices, i.e., the FCOE of ANY ADDITIONAL ENERGIEWENDE is about to significantly increase RIGHT NOW.

The US idea of “Russia must not be allowed to win” is easy to say for the energy-sufficient US

It is total BS for energy/other-resource-starved Europe.

The US can afford to use corrupt, dysfunctional, oligarchic Ukraine, as a proxy  to "weaken Russia"

Europe cannot.

Europe will have a much higher FCOE, and will be at a significant competitive disadvantage vs the rest of the world, going forward.

China and India are increasing their consumption of coal, oil and gas, regardless of whatever COP.

Russia is supplying most of those increases.

China is planning to expand BRISC with more members, as a counterweight to the US/EU

Comment by Art Brigades on May 18, 2022 at 9:17am

I love my heat pump because it works great in central Maine. Maybe it's colder in Vermont. Yes, it needs backup from my Rennai (propane) heater on really cold days, but it will pay for itself after three years. Heat pumps don’t perform well at sub zero but when you take all the hours in a year when the temp is +5 degrees down to -20 degrees it is only about 200 hours/year or about 3% of the total hours in a year. So while my heat pump isn't perfect, it's pretty darn good. If Vermont politicians want to consider heat pumps as some perfect/panacea/miracle, they'll eventually learn they were a little bit wrong. 

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

Not yet a member?

Sign up today and lend your voice and presence to the steadily rising tide that will soon sweep the scourge of useless and wretched turbines from our beloved Maine countryside. For many of us, our little pieces of paradise have been hard won. Did the carpetbaggers think they could simply steal them from us?

We have the facts on our side. We have the truth on our side. All we need now is YOU.

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

 -- Mahatma Gandhi

"It's not whether you get knocked down: it's whether you get up."
Vince Lombardi 

Task Force membership is free. Please sign up today!

Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

© 2022   Created by Webmaster.   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service