HEAT PUMPS ARE MONEY LOSERS IN MY VERMONT HOUSE, AS THEY ARE IN ALMOST ALL NEW ENGLAND HOUSES

Vermont “Electrify-Everything” Goals Will Cost $Billions and Will Reduce Little CO2

The Vermont state government wants to electrify-everything (heat pumps, electric cars, and transit and school buses, no matter the:

VT-DPS commissioned CADMUS to perform a survey of Vermont air source heat pumps (HPs), after numerous complaints from HP users regarding: 1) high electric bills and 2) minimal annual savings after installing HPs

The report and VT-DPS found the average energy cost savings regarding HPs was about $200/HP, as proven by the CADMUS survey report of operating data of 77 HPs at 65 sites. See URL

Those meager energy savings would be more than offset by the annual amortizing cost of $4,500/HP at 6%/y for 15 years, plus any annual maintenance costs, and parts and labor costs. HPs are significant money losers for Vermonters. See URLs

2) Lucrative benefits to Canadian-owned GMP, which sells a lot more high-priced electricity, using the same poles and wires.

3) Everyone else getting royally screwed; an example of “fighting” climate change; Don-Quixote tilting at wind mills.

Please stop using the word “weatherizing”, which usually costs about $10,000/house.

Such a measure is not anywhere near sufficient for HPs to displace 100% of fossil fuel Btus with electricity Btus; it is a mere band-aid;

For 100% displacement, 2 to 3 HPs, with multiple heads, are required, PLUS a wood/propane/fuel oil stove on colder days.

A house would have to be highly sealed, highly insulated, R40 walls, R60 ceiling, R20 basement, R7 windows, R10 doors, with exhaust heat recovery system, etc., to have HPs economically displace 100% of fossil fuel Btus with electricity Btus.

Such houses do exist in Vermont, but are less than 2 to 3% of the entire housing stock.

Vermont has a government-subsidized weatherizing program, that aims to decrease the energy consumption for heating, cooling and electricity of average Vermont houses. The average weatherizing cost is about $10,000/house.

However, owners who have weatherized should not think their house has become suitable for HPs to displace 100% of fossil fuel Btus with electricity Btus. Nothing could further from the truth!

I have a well-sealed, well-insulated house, oriented/designed for passive solar gain, i.e., it is already weatherized, but my 3 HPs, with 6 heads, economically displace only 35% of my fossil fuel Btus with electricity Btus, based on 3 years of measured operating data.

One HP with one head, in an average Vermont house, displaces only 27.6% of the fossil fuel Btus with electricity Btus, as confirmed by the CADMUS survey report.

All of the above is well known by energy engineers at VT-DPS, and EAN, and VEIC, and Efficiency-Vermont, etc.

Those engineers likely know of some very energy-efficient Vermont houses, with HPs that displace 100% of fossil fuel Btus with electricity Btus, year-after-year.

HPs are very uneconomical at low temperatures, which is exactly the condition when your house requires the most space heat. With HP system losses, aka overhead of about 10%, it would be almost like heating your house with electric heat; a very expensive hardship on cold days.

If a house had a space heat requirement of 11,500 Btu/h at 47F, the propane cost would be about 40 c/h, but the HP electricity cost would be about 16 c/h, for a saving of about 24 c/h

If a house had a space heat requirement of 35,000 Btu/h at 0F, the propane cost would be about 121 c/h, but the HP electricity cost would be about 141 c/h, for a loss of about 20 c/h

I installed three heat pumps by Mitsubishi, rated 24,000 Btu/h at 47F, Model MXZ-2C24NAHZ2, each with 2 heads, each with remote control; 2 in the living room, 1 in the kitchen, and 1 in each of 3 bedrooms.

The HPs have DC variable-speed, motor-driven compressors and fans, which improves the efficiency of low-temperature operation.

The HPs are used for heating and cooling my 35-y-old, 3,600 sq ft, well-sealed/well-insulated house.

The basement, 1,200 sq ft, has a near-steady temperature throughout the year, because it has 2” of blueboard, R-10, on the outside of the concrete foundation and under the basement slab, which has saved me many thousands of space heating dollars over the 35 years.

I do not operate my HPs below 10F to 15F (depending on sun and wind conditions), because all HPs would become increasingly less efficient with decreasing outdoor temperatures.

The HP operating cost per hour would become greater than of my efficient propane furnace. See table 3

Vermont forcing, with subsidies and/or GWSA mandates, the build-outs of expensive RE electricity systems, such as wind, solar, batteries, etc., would be counter-productive, because it would:

- HP electricity consumption was from my electric bills, and an HP system electric meter.

- Vermont electricity prices, including taxes, fees and surcharges, are assumed at 20 c/kWh.

- My HPs provide space heat to 2,300 sq ft, about the same area as an average Vermont house

- Two small propane heaters (electricity not required) provide space heat to my 1,300 sq ft basement

- I operate my HPs at temperatures of 10 to 15F and greater (depending on wind and sun conditions)

- I operate my traditional propane system at temperatures of 10f to 15F and less

Before HPs: I used 100 gal for domestic hot water + 250 gal for 2 stoves in basement + 850 gal for Viessmann furnace, for a total propane of 1,200 gal/y

After HPs: I used 100 gal for DHW + 250 gal for 2 stoves in basement + 550 gal for Viessmann furnace + 2,489 kWh of electricity.

My propane cost reduction for space heating was 850 - 550 = 300 gallon/y, at a cost of $2.339/gal (buyers plan) = $702/y

My displaced fossil Btus was 100 x (1 - 550/850) = 35%, which is better than the Vermont average of 27.6%

My energy cost savings due to the HPs were 702 - 498 = $204/y, on an investment of $24,000!!

Amortizing the 24000 – 2400 = $21,600 turnkey capital cost at 6%/y for 15 years costs about $2,187/y.

This is in addition to the amortizing of my existing propane system. I am losing money.

There likely would be annual cleaning of HPs at $200/HP, and parts and labor, as the years go by.

This is in addition to the annual service calls and parts for my existing propane system. I am losing more money.

Site Energy Basis: RE folks claim there would be a major energy reduction, due to using HPs. They compare the thermal Btus of 300 gallon of propane x 84,250 Btu/gal = 25,275,000 Btu vs the electrical Btus of 2,489 kWh of electricity x 3,412 Btu/kWh = 8,492,469 Btu. However, that comparison would equate thermal Btus with electrical Btus, which all ethical engineers know is an absolute no-no.

A-to-Z Energy Basis: A proper comparison would be thermal Btus of propane vs thermal Btus fed to power plants, i.e., 25,275,000 Btu vs 23,312,490 Btu, i.e., a minor energy reduction. See table 1A

BTW, almost all RE folks who claim a major energy reduction from HPs, do not know how to compose this table, and yet they mandate others what to do to save the world from Climate Change.

My CO2 emissions for space heating, before HPs, were 850 gal/y x 12.7 lb CO2/gal, from combustion = 4.897 Mt/y

1) Market based, based on commercial contracts, aka power purchase agreements, PPAs

2) Location based, based on fuels combusted by power plants connected to the NE grid

Per state mandates, utilities have PPAs with Owners of low-CO2 power sources, such as wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, and biomass, in-state and out-of-state.

Utilities crow about being “low-CO2”, or “zero-CO2” by signing PPA papers, i.e., without spending a dime.

Energy Action Network, a pro-RE-umbrella organization, uses 33.9 g CO2/kWh (calculated by VT-DPS), based on utilities having PPAs with low-CO2 power sources.

CO2 reduction is 4.897 - 3.253 = 1.644 Mt/y, based on the 2018 VT-DPS “paper-based” value of 33.9 g CO2/kWh

Utilities physically draw almost all of their electricity supply from the high-voltage grid

If utilities did not have PPAs, and would draw electricity from the high-voltage grid, they would be stealing.

ISO-NE administers a settlement system, to ensure utilities pay owners per PPA contract.

Electricity travels as electric-magnetic waves, at near the speed of light, i.e., from northern Maine to southern Florida, about 1,800 miles in 0.01 second.

There is no physical basis for lay RE folks to talk about there being a “VT CO2” or a “NH CO2”, etc.

ISO-NE, the NE grid operator, calculated that value at 317 g CO2/kWh, at wall outlet, for 2018

CO2 reduction is 4.897 - 3.937 = 0.939 Mt/y, based on the 2018 “real world” value of 317 g CO2/kWh, as calculated by ISO-NE

Cost of CO2 Reduction is ($2059/y, amortizing - $204/y, energy cost savings + $200/y, service, parts, labor) / (0.939 Mt/y, CO2 reduction) = $2,188/Mt, which is outrageously expensive.

EAN claims 90,000 HPs, by 2025, would reduce 0.37 million metric ton of CO2, in 2025, or 0.37 million/90,000 = 4.111 Mt/y.

EAN achieves such a high value, because EAN assumes 100% displacement of fuel (gas, propane, fuel oil), which is completely unrealistic, because the actual fuel displacement in Vermont houses with HPs was only 27.6%, based on a VT-DPS-sponsored survey of HPs in Vermont, and 35% in my well-insulated/well-sealed VT house, as above stated.

The EAN 100% claim would be true, only for highly sealed and highly insulated houses, which represent about 2% of all Vermont houses.

In addition, the average Vermont house would need 2 to 3 HPs, with 4 to 6 heads, at a turnkey cost of at least $20,000, to achieve 100% displacement. See URL

Heavily subsidized businesses selling/installing/servicing HPs, etc., will be collecting hundreds of $millions each year over the decades, while already-struggling, over-regulated, over-taxed Vermonters will be further screwed out of a decent standard of living.

HP boosters Sens. Bray, McDonald, etc., know about those dreadful HP results in Vermont, and yet they continue shilling for HPs.

All these expensive Vermont GWSA efforts will be having ZERO IMPACT ON GLOBAL WARMING.

If you have a wood stove or pellet stove, by all means use it, because it is the lowest-cost way to space heat houses, including Vermont energy-hog houses.

Be aware, the exhaust of woodstoves has mostly submicron particles (less than one millionth of a meter), that are most harmful to health, especially to: 1) people with heart and lung diseases, and 2) infants and children

A wood-burning open fireplace has negative efficiency, i.e., is sucks more heat out of a space, than it adds heat to a space. Do not use it at temperatures less than 35F.

Vermont forcing, with subsidies and/or GWSA mandates, the build-outs of expensive RE electricity systems, such as wind, solar, batteries, etc., would be counter-productive, because it would:

Any experienced energy systems engineer can readily calculate the hourly cost of operating HPs and propane furnaces.

The HP operating cost per hour would become greater than of an efficient propane furnace, because HPs would become increasingly less efficient with decreasing temperatures. See table 3

- Vermont electricity prices, including taxes, fees and surcharges, are about 20 c/kWh.

- My HPs provide space heat to 2,300 sq ft, about the same area as an average Vermont house

- I operate my wall-hung propane heater at temperatures of 15F, or less; less $/h than HP

- My average HP coefficient of performance, COP, was 2.64; if I operated my HPs at less than 10F, the average COP would become 2.0 or less

- The average Vermont house COP is about 3.34, because the HPs typically operate at about 28F to 35F and above

- The average Vermont house requires 2,085 kWh to displace 27.6% of its fuel, per VT-DPS/CADMUS survey. See URL

Before HPs: I used 100 gal for domestic hot water + 250 gal for 2 stoves in basement + 850 gal for Viessmann furnace, for a total propane of 1,200 gal/y

After HPs: I used 100 gal for DHW + 250 gal for 2 stoves in basement + 550 gal for Viessmann furnace + 2,489 kWh of electricity.

My propane cost reduction for space heating was 850 - 550 = 300 gallon/y, at a cost of 2.339/gal = $702/y

My displaced fuel was 100 x (1 - 550/850) = 35%, which is better than the Vermont average of 27.6%

My energy cost savings due to the HPs were 702 - 498 = $204/y, on an investment of $24,000!!

Amortizing the $24,000 turnkey capital cost at 3.5%/y for 15 years costs about $2,059/y.

This is in addition to the amortizing of my existing propane system. I am losing money.

There likely would be service calls and parts for the HP system, as the years go by.

This is in addition to the annual service calls and parts for my existing propane system. I am losing more money.

However, that comparison would equate thermal Btus with electrical Btus, which all engineers know is an absolute no-no.

However, they mandate Vermonters what to do, to save the world from Climate Change

My CO2 emissions for space heating, before HPs, were 850 gal/y x 12.7 lb CO2/gal, from combustion = 4.897 Mt/y

1) Market based, based on commercial contracts, aka power purchase agreements, PPAs

2) Location based, based on fuels combusted by power plants connected to the NE grid

Per state mandates, utilities have PPAs with Owners of low-CO2 power sources, such as wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, and biomass, in-state and out-of-state.

Utilities crow about being “low-CO2”, or “zero-CO2” by signing PPA papers, i.e., without spending a dime.

Energy Action Network, a pro-RE-umbrella organization, uses 33.9 g CO2/kWh (calculated by VT-DPS), based on utilities having PPAs with low-CO2 power sources.

CO2 reduction is 4.897 - 3.253 = 1.644 Mt/y, based on the 2018 VT-DPS “paper-based” value of 33.9 g CO2/kWh

Utilities physically draw almost all of their electricity supply from the high-voltage grid

If utilities did not have PPAs, and would draw electricity from the high-voltage grid, they would be stealing.

ISO-NE administers a settlement system, to ensure utilities pay owners per PPA contract.

Electricity travels as electric-magnetic waves, at near the speed of light, i.e., from northern Maine to southern Florida, about 1,800 miles in 0.01 second.

There is no physical basis for lay RE folks to talk about there being a “VT CO2” or a “NH CO2”, etc.

ISO-NE, the NE grid operator, calculated that value at 317 g CO2/kWh, at wall outlet, for 2018

CO2 reduction is 4.897 - 3.897 = 0.939 Mt/y, based on the 2018 “real world” value of 317 g CO2/kWh, as calculated by ISO-NE

Cost of CO2 Reduction is ($2059/y, amortizing - $204/y, energy cost savings + $200/y, service, parts, labor) / (0.939 Mt/y, CO2 reduction) = $2,188/Mt, which is outrageously expensive.

EAN claims 90,000 HPs, by 2025, would reduce 0.37 million metric ton of CO2, in 2025, or 0.37 million/90,000 = 4.111 Mt/y.

The EAN 100% claim would be true, only for highly sealed and highly insulated houses, which represent about 1.5% of all Vermont houses.

In addition, the average Vermont house would need 2 to 3 HPs, at a turnkey cost of at least $20,000, to achieve 100% displacement. See URL

If HPs are operated at low temperatures, they have low COPs, which would result in a greater electricity cost per hour than using the displaced fuel.

At 27.6% Fuel Displacement: Vermont houses with HPs, operated down to about 28F, would require 2,085 kWh/y, to deliver 21,400,000 Btu, at an average COP of 3.34, to displace 27.6% of space heat, at an electricity cost of $417/y, per VT-DPS survey

At 35% Fuel Displacement: My HPs, operated down to 15F, would require about 2,489 kWh/y, to deliver 20,220,000 Btu, at an average COP of 2.64, to displace 35% of my space heat, at an electricity cost of $498/y

At 100% Fuel Displacement: My HPs, operated down to -10F, would require about 8,997 kWh/y, to deliver 57,290,000 Btu, at an average COP of 2.07, to displace 100% of my space heat, at an electricity cost of $1,799/y.

This would displace 850 gal of propane, at a cost of 850 x $2.339/gal = $1,988/y.

My energy cost savings would be 1,988 - 1,799 = $189/y, on an investment of $24,000 !!!

- My HPs were operated down to 15F, which is less than the VT HPs, hence my average COP = 2.64

- Most VT HPs are operated down to about 28F; the traditional space heating system is operated below 28F. See figure 14 of URL

- I can operate down to 15F, because of better insulation and sealing than an average Vermont house.

- If my HPs were operated down to -10F, i.e., 100% fuel displacement, my average COP would be 2.07

BTW, all energy systems engineers, including at EAN, know this, because every engineering college teaches that subject to its students.

If I had a highly sealed, highly insulated house, with the same efficient propane heating system, my house, for starters, would use very little energy for space heating, i.e., not much additional energy cost saving and additional CO2 reduction would be possible using HPs

If I would install HPs, and would operate the propane system down to 5F (which would involve greater defrost losses), I likely would displace a greater percentage of propane, and might have greater annual energy cost savings; much would depend on: 1) the total energy consumption, which is very little, because of my higher-efficiency house, and 2) the prices of electricity and propane. See Note.

I likely would need 3 units at 18,000 Btu/h, at a lesser turnkey capital cost. Their output, very-inefficiently produced (low COP), would be about 34,000 Btu/h at -10F, the Vermont HVAC design temperature.

However, any annual energy cost savings would be overwhelmed by the annual amortizing cost, and parts and service costs. i.e., I would still be losing money, if amortizing were considered.

1) About 1.5 percent of Vermont houses are highly sealed and highly insulated, i.e., suitable for economic use of HPs

2) Vermont’s weatherizing program, at about $10,000/unit, does next to nothing for making energy-hog houses suitable for HPs; it is a social program for poorer people.

Table 3 shows, I could have operated my HPs down to about 10F, instead of 15F, and break even regarding hourly cost of operation.

Table 3 shows, the cost of space heating at -10F is about 1.95/0.49 = 4 times greater than at 30F, whereas the space heat demand increased 40,000/20,000 = 2 times, due to HPs having low COPs at low temperatures, per Engineering Thermodynamics 101

BTW, the electricity draw by all HPs would place a high burden on pocket books and distribution grids, during such cold periods, at about the same time all those EVs would be charging.

In table 3, the COPs at low temperatures, 35F to 10F (bold), were adjusted downward for defrost losses.

The COPs, determined by manufacturers in a laboratory, exclude defrost losses, which were about 6.2%, per VT-DPS survey. See Appendix and URL

Most RE folks who write about, or analyze HPs: 1) fail to mention those losses, and 2) do not adjust the COPs

If my house were highly sealed and highly insulated, R-40 or better, R20 basement, etc.:

1) The space heat demand would be about 50% of the table values, such as 20,000 Btu/h at -10F

3) The burden on the distribution grids and transmission grids would be about 50% less.

All that falls under the heading, “putting the horse before the cart”, i.e., highly efficient housing stock first, then HPs

Such operation would be least costly and would displace propane, that otherwise would be used.

The image shows, HPs are economical down to about 13 F, then propane, etc., becomes more economical; much depends on the prices of electricity and propane.

BTW, all of the above has been known for many years, in and out of government.

They are widely used in many different buildings in northern Europe, such as Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland.

Their main advantage is the COP does not decrease with temperature, because the ground temperature is constant

HPs can economically displace at most 50% of fuel; the percentage depends on how well a building is sealed and insulated.

The main disadvantage of GSHPs is greater turnkey capital cost, i.e., high amortization cost. See URL

"Vermonters must have 25,000 HPs, by so and so year, to save the climate, even though it is required by the off-the-charts nutty GWSA act, and the grandiose Comprehensive Energy Plan.

The GWSA should be scrapped, and the CEP should be rewritten along realistic lines.

In the World-CO2 picture, Vermont is just a dot at the end of this sentence.

VT-Department of Public Service found, after a survey of 77 HPs installed in Vermont houses:

- The annual energy cost savings were, on average, $200, but the maintenance and annual amortizing costs would turn that gain into a loss of at least $200.

- On average, the HPs provided 27.6% of the annual space heat, and traditional fuels provided 72.4%. These numbers are directly from the CADMUS report.

- Owners started to turn off their HPs at about 28F, and very few owners were using their HPs at 10F and below, as shown by the decreasing kWh consumption totals on figure 14 of URL

1) To outdoor unit (compressor, outdoor fan, controls) + indoor air handling unit (fan and supplemental electric heater, if used) to provide heat 1,880 kWh;

3) Defrost mode 129 kWh, or 100 x 129/2085 = 6.2%. Defrost starts at about 37F and ends at about 10F.

- Turnkey cost for a one-head HP system is about $4,500; almost all houses had just one HP. See URLs.

On average, these houses were unsuitable for HPs, and the owners were losing money.

NOTE: Coefficient of Performance, COP = heat delivered to house/electrical energy to HP

As a result of a few years of complaints by various HP users, mainly about energy cost savings being much less than stated on various websites, VT-DPS was ordered by the Legislature to hire a consultant to perform a survey. CADMUS gathered the operating data of 77 HPs at 65 sites, to determine annual energy cost savings of the heat pumps.

- Space heat to all sites was 65 x 92 million Btu/site = 5,980 million Btu from all fuels. See URL, page 22

- Heat from HPs was 77 x 21.4 million Btu/HP = 1,648 million Btu. See URL, page 21

- Traditional systems provided 5980 – 1648 = 4,332 million Btu, or 4332/5980 = 72.4% of the total space heat.

The energy cost savings were an average of about $200/HP per year, instead of the $1,200/y to $1,800/y bandied about by RE folks and GMP, VT-DPS, VPIRG, etc. After the CADMUS report, those estimates disappeared from booster websites. See URLs.

Method 1 is “location-based”. It is based on physical conditions, i.e., science-based

The CO2 of each electric power source on an electric grid is calculated, based on fuel consumption.

The CO2 of each electric power source on an electric grid is calculated, based on EPA emission factors applicable to the electricity of commercial contracts. See page 3 of epa.gov URL

Per international convention, the EPA declared wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, biomass (i.e., wood chip burning), farm methane, etc., as having zero CO2 emissions, for bookkeeping purposes.

NOTE: Electricity travels, as electromagnetic waves, at slightly less than the speed of light, i.e., almost 1860 mile in 0.01 second, i.e., from northern Maine to southern Florida in 0.01 second! The electrons largely vibrate in place at 60 cycles per second.

It is nonsense for RE folks to talk of the “Vermont Energy mix”, or the “New Hampshire energy mix”, or to use a “paper PPA energy mix”. These fictitious mixes have no physical basis.

BTW, if electricity did not travel that fast, the operation of electric grids would be physically impossible.

In 2019, about 82% of electricity loaded onto the NE grid was generated in NE, and 18% was imported. See Note and table in epa URL

The ISO-NE-calculated CO2 emissions for 2019 = (30.997 million US ton, see iso-ne emissions URL x 2000lb/US ton x 454 g/lb)/ (97,853,000 MWh, NE generation, per epa URL) x 1000 kWh/MWh) = 288 g/kWh, fed-to-grid basis, or 288/0.908 = 317 g/kWh, fed-to-user-meter basis, i.e., consumption based, if total grid loss = 2.5%, NE grid + 6.7%, distribution grids = 9.2%.

The grid CO2/kWh will be slowly decreasing as more low-CO2 electricity generators, such as wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, biomass (i.e., wood chip burning), farm methane, etc., are added to the electricity mix of the NE grid.

NOTE: Since 2004, lower-priced electricity has been imported to serve NE demand; much of it is Canadian hydropower. The CO2 of the imports does not count toward NE grid emissions, by convention, because that CO2 is assumed to be counted in the “jurisdiction of origin”. See URL

VT-DPS, without providing any calculations, announced the CO2 emissions of the VT electrical sector were 1,000,000; 810,000; 490,000; 190,000; and 130,000 metric ton, for 2015 through 2019.

The VT-DPS emissions were almost entirely “market-based”, i.e., based on EPA emission factors applicable to the electricity of power purchase agreements, PPAs

VT utilities are legally required to have PPAs with the owners of in-state and out-of-state electricity producers

If VT utilities did not have such PPAs, they would be drawing electricity from the NE grid without contracts, which is the legal equivalent of stealing!

Physically, VT utilities draw about 95% of their annual 6.0 billion electricity supply from the NE high voltage grid, i.e., they draw the mix of the NE grid.

The remaining 5% is fed to utility-owned distribution grids, such as rooftop solar. See Note

Because of losses, about 5.6 billion kWh/y arrives at user meters, a distribution loss of about 100 x (1- 5.6/6.0) = 6.7%

VT-DPS-calculated CO2 emissions for 2019 = 130,000 Mt/y / 5.6 billion kWh/y = 23 g CO2/kWh, fed-to-user-meter basis, i.e., consumption based, or only 100 x {1 - (1 - 23/317)} = 7.3% of the ISO-NE value.

The below graph of the VT electric sector (blue) has been deceptive for many years

VT Location-based CO2, in 2019, was about 5.6 billion x 317 g/kWh = 1,773,918 Mt, per ISO-NE fuel data.

The market-based method enabled GMP to proclaim itself to be 95% CO2-free, without spending one dime, because it signed PPAs for wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, biomass (i.e., wood chip burning), farm methane, etc., which are designated as having zero CO2 emissions, per international convention.

By the way, all of this, including rolling blackouts at ZUB-ZERO temperatures, and a lack of gas and oil for space heating, applies to New England, if:

1) New York State keeps obstructing new gas pipelines from Pennsylvania to New England; THIS SHOULD BE LEGALLY FORBIDDEN AS AN UNCONSTITUTIONAL INTERFERENCE OF INTER-STATE COMMERCE, and

2) The New England oil, gas and coal storage capacities near power plants are not increased by at least 100% to ensure RELIABLE ELECTRICAL SERVICE IN WINTER, WHICH WOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT, IF UNCERTAIN, MOTHER-NATURE, WEATHER-DEPENDENT WIND AND SOLAR WERE FURTHER EXPANDED, AS THE US AIMS TO BLINDLY COPY THAT DISASTROUS EUROPEAN SCENARIO

ISO-NE REPORT OF 2021 ECONOMIC STUDY: FUTURE GRID RELIABILITY STUDY PHASE 1

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2022/07/2021_economi...

DEEP DIVE SUMMARY OF THE ISO-NE REPORT

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/new-england-future-grid-study-iso/...

LIFE WITHOUT OIL

Life without oil means many products that are made with oil, such as the hundreds listed below, would need to be provided by wind and solar and hydro.

Folks, including Biden's attendants, wanting to get rid of fossil fuels, such as crude oil, better start doing some rethinking.

The above also applies to natural gas, which is much preferred by many industries

If you do not have abundant low-cost energy, you cannot have modern industrial economies.

APPENDIX 1

These articles contain significant information regarding wind, solar and grid-scale battery systems

GRID-SCALE BATTERY SYSTEMS IN NEW ENGLAND TO COUNTERACT SHORTFALL OF ONE-DAY WIND/SOLAR LULL

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...

COLD WEATHER OPERATION IN NEW ENGLAND DECEMBER 24, 2017 TO JANUARY 8, 2018

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cold-weather-operation...

ANALYSIS OF WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY LULLS AND ENERGY STORAGE IN GERMANY

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-energy-...

IRELAND FUEL AND CO2 REDUCTIONS DUE TO WIND ENERGY LESS THAN CLAIMED

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fuel-and-co2-reduction...

BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

HIGH COSTS OF WIND, SOLAR, AND BATTERY SYSTEMS IN US NORTHEAST

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/high-costs-of-wind-sol...

CO2 is a Life Gas; No CO2 = No Life

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/co2-is-a-life-gas-no-c...

APPENDIX 2

These articles explain a lot about the world-wide “Climate Crisis” scam, based on highly compromised surface station measurements, which typically read HIGH.

Climate scientists SUBJECTIVELY adjust the readings for use in their SUBJECTIVE computerized-temperature-calculation programs, which are used in the reports of IPCC, etc., for scare-mongering purposes.

New Surface Stations Report Released – It’s ‘worse than we thought’

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/new-surface-stations-r...

Weather- Just how does it happen?

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/weather-just-how-does-...

A summary of the results of three “Physics of the Earth’s Atmosphere” papers, which were submitted for peer review at the Open Peer Review Journal.

https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/19/summary-the-physics-of-t...

APPENDIX 3

Satellites and balloons measure temperatures of the Troposphere, which starts at ground level, and has an average height of 59,000 ft at the tropics, 56,000 ft at the middle latitudes, and 20,000 ft at the poles. Above those levels starts the Stratosphere.

Balloons directly measure temperatures. Satellites measure radiation, from which temperatures are calculated.

Both consistently measure much lower temperatures than the average of 102 computer-generated graphs.

See Appendix 2 and 3

The data in the below images is for a 43-y period.

There is global warming, but it is not anywhere near as much as scare-mongers are claiming.

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...

1) Objective satellite and balloon temperatures increased from 0.00 to 0.5 C, or, or 0.116 C/decade

2) Subjective computer-generated temperatures increased from 0.00 to 1.20 C; or 0.28 C/decade, about 2.7 TIMES AS FAST

The temperature data by satellites and balloons are more accurate than land-based measurements.

See Appendix 2 and URL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset

Satellite measurements are made many times during every day and systematically cover almost the entire world; +/- 85-degree latitude.

The satellite data is vastly more complete, and accurate than would be gathered by ground stations. (See Appendix 2)

Balloon measurements, made on a sampling basis, are vastly less complete than satellite measurements, but they serve as a useful crosscheck on the satellite measurements.

NOTE: Behind the 102 computer graphs are hundreds of organizations that likely receive a significant part of their revenues from governments and subsidy-receiving wind, solar, battery, etc., businesses.

The livelihood and career prospects of the people creating these graphs is more secure, if they aim high, rather than low.

https://www.scienceunderattack.com/blog/2021/2/22/latest-computer-c...

NOTE: The bottom dotted, squiggly graph is the Russian Model (IMM-C-M4), which is close to the balloon and satellite data.

A more detailed view of satellite temperatures.

APPENDIX 4

Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) and also a member of the CO2 Coalition. Sheahen and the Coalition are collaborating on a brief.

SEPP’s October 8 newsletter contains a summary of a major 2021 paper by Happer and co-author William van Wijngaarden that completely undermines the fake “science” the IPCC and EPA used to support the case of climate alarm.

Sheahen specifically discusses the efforts of Professors William van Wijngaarden and William Happer in their pioneering work in calculating the real-world Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) of the five most common Green-House Gases (GHGs).

Sheahan explains why the approach used by IPCC is faulty, but nonetheless used by its followers, such as the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the EPA.

These faulty methods lead to great exaggeration of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide, methane, and other minor greenhouse gases. . . .

Sheahan shows the stunning agreement between the calculations of van Wijngaarden and Happer (W & H) with satellite measurements (and balloon measurements) of outgoing infrared radiation emitted by the earth to space . . .

Sheahan claims, because of the exceptionally good agreement between observational data and the calculations of W & H, we can conclude the W&H model has been validated.

The W&H model embodies the scientific method.

In that case, it is reasonable to use it to study other hypothetical cases.

It is not possible to do so with IPCC models, which have never achieved agreement with observations. . .

See Appendix 3

The gist of the H&W work is the greenhouse effect of CO2 in the atmosphere is almost entirely saturated, such that any additional CO2 can have almost no additional warming effect.

Here is a chart prepared by Sheahan to illustrate the H&W results.

As atmospheric CO2 increases, say from 380 to 420 ppm, it has less warming effect.

The most warming effect occurs at very low levels of CO2, say 20 to 60 ppm.

APPENDIX 5

A timely and important new paper has just been uploaded to the CO2 Coalition website on nitrogen.

The first half of the paper on the greenhouse warming effect of N2O is quite technical

It is summarized in the first link.

Link to the full paper is at the bottom. Please distribute widely.

Authors: Will Happer, C. A. de Lange, William Wijngaarden and J.D. Ferguson

Nitrous Oxide and Climate – Why restricting N2O emissions is unnece...

Nitrous oxide (N₂0) has now joined carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) in the pantheon of “human-generated demon” gases.
GW scare-mongers view increasing concentrations of these molecules are leading to unusual and unprecedented GW, which will lead to catastrophic consequences for both our ecosystems and humanity.

Countries around the world are in the process of greatly reducing, or eliminating, the use of nitrogen fertilizers, based on heretofore poorly understood properties of nitrous oxide.

Reductions of N₂O emissions of 40 to 45 percent are being proposed in Canada , and by up to 50 percent in the Netherlands .

Sri Lanka’s complete ban on fertilizer in 2021 led to the total collapse of their primarily agricultural economy.

The CO2 Coalition has published this paper, which evaluates the GW effect of the N20 and its role in the nitrogen cycle.

Policymakers can now proceed to make informed decisions about the costs and benefits of mandated N20 reductions of this beneficial molecule.

This new paper joins previous CO2 Coalition reports on other greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane.

Key takeaways from the paper:

At current rates, a doubling of N₂O would occur in more than 400 years.
Atmospheric warming by N₂O is estimated to be 0.064 C per century.
Increasing crop production requires continued application of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer to feed a growing population.

Download the entire PDF Nitrous Oxide

It is dangerous to be correct in matters, where established men are wrong, by Voltaire

Comment by Thinklike A. Mountain on September 18, 2021 at 8:26pm

Comment by Willem Post on September 18, 2021 at 3:39pm: Roger,

Thank for the compliment, and for spreading the article to your contacts.

I continue to make refinements, as time goes by.

Comment by Willem Post on September 18, 2021 at 8:45am: Hi Nancy,

I have added the URL to my article.

I wonder what could happen during rush our traffic, or in a parking garage, or at a shopping mall, etc.

THETFORD; July 2, 2021 — A fire destroyed a 2019 Chevy Bolt, 66 kWh battery, EPA range 238 miles, owned by state Rep. Tim Briglin, D-Thetford, Chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Technology.

He had been driving back and forth from Thetford, VT, to Montpelier, VT, with his EV, about 100 miles via I-89

He had parked his 2019 Chevy Bolt on the driveway, throughout the winter, per GM recall of Chevy Bolts

He had plugged his EV into a 240-volt charger.

The battery was at about 10% charge at start of charging, at 8 PM, and he had charged it to 100% charge at 4 AM; 8 hours of charging. See Note

Li-ions (pos.) would plate out on the cathode (neg) each time when charging from 80 to 100%.

Li-ions would plate out on the anode (pos) each time when charging from 10% to 20%, especially when such charging occurred at battery temperatures of 32F or less.

Fire: Firefighters were called to Briglin’s Tucker Hill Road home around 9 AM Thursday.

Investigators from the Vermont Department of Public Safety Fire and Explosion Investigation Unit determined:

1) The fire started in a compartment in the back of the passenger’s side of the vehicle

2) It was likely due to an “electrical failure”.

https://www.vnews.com/Firefighters-put-out-blaze-in-car-of-Vt-State...

https://www.engadget.com/gm-chevy-bolt-fire-warning-215322969.html

https://electrek.co/2020/11/13/gm-recall-chevy-bolt-evs-potential-f...

GM Recall of Chevy Bolts: In 2020, GM issued a worldwide recall of 68,667 Chevy Bolts, all 2017, 2018 and 2019 models, plus, in 2021, a recall for another 73,000 Bolts, all 2020, 2021, and 2022 models.

GM set aside $1.8 BILLION to replace battery modules, or 1.8 BILLION/(68,667 + 73,000) = $12,706/EV.

https://insideevs.com/news/524712/chevrolet-bolt-battery-recall-cost/

https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/568817-gm-expands-bolt-ev...

Owners were advised not to charge them in a garage, and not to leave them unattended while charging, which may take up to 8 hours; what a nuisance!

I wonder what could happen during rush our traffic, or in a parking garage, or at a shopping mall, etc.

Rep. Briglin heeded the GM recall by not charging in his garage. See URLs

https://www.ericpetersautos.com/2021/09/16/electric-social-distancing/

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/some-ne-state-governme...

NOTE:

- Cost of replacing the battery packs of 80,000 Hyundai Konas was estimated at $900 million, about $11,000 per vehicle

https://insideevs.com/news/492167/reports-lg-chem-cost-hyundai-batt...

- EV batteries should be charged from 20 to 80%, to achieve minimal degradation and long life, plus the charging loss is minimal in that range

- Charging EVs from 0 to 20% charge, and from 80 to 100% charge, 1) uses more kWh AC from the wall outlet per kWh DC charged into the battery, and 2) is detrimental to the battery. Also, it requires additional kWh for cooling the battery while charging.

- EV batteries must never be charged, when the battery temperature is less than 32F; if charged anyway, the plating out of Li-ions on the anode would permanently damage the battery.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/how-does-lithium-ion-battery-work

See section Charging Electric Vehicles During Freezing Conditions in URL

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/some-ne-state-governme...

Comment by Willem Post on September 18, 2021 at 8:33am: Kenneth,

A small capacity heat pump is used on Tesla EVs to provide for cabin and battery heating and cooling.

It has a patented, eight-way valve, which enables more loops to be "in-play", instead of the 4-way valve used on other EVs with heat pumps. The ranges of Teslas were increased, as a result.

Comment by Nancy Sosman on September 18, 2021 at 5:15am: https://www.ericpetersautos.com/2021/09/16/electric-social-distancing/

GM has just advised owners of the Chevy Bolt electric car to park the thing at least 50 feet away from other cars, so as to avoid burning them to cinders – along with the auto-igniting Bolt.

Comment by Willem Post on September 17, 2021 at 10:38pm: Roger,

There is a lot of misinformation out there regarding HPs, propagated by HP hucksters, i.e., career bureaucrats, who want to use Global Warming as a long-term pathway towards retirement and pensions, etc.

All keep on spouting the same talking points to reinforce the story, which they know to be untrue, because I have emailed my articles to them for at least 15 years.

Then, there are the HP installers, who arrive at your door to "assess your HP needs", with the latest/fanciest, crew-cab, pick-up trucks, $50,000 and up.

They charge extra, because it is a sellers market, and because of hyping and mandates, and they are "certified" by Vermont Energy Efficiency.

They are laughing all the way to the bank.

In the meantime, non-technical lay folks and most Legislators do not have enough information to make buying and legislative decisions.

In fact, most legislators are in cahoots with the hucksters and hypers, shower them with subsidies, etc., because that gets them re-elected.

Comment by Kenneth Capron on September 17, 2021 at 4:57pm: Anyone know what the smallest HP is?
Or equivalent that I can put in a 4px gondola for heating and cooling?

Comment by Kenneth Capron on September 17, 2021 at 4:18pm: "there's only one solution: global government" - could also be a ruse to get us to buy more guns and bullets.

I'm going to run for Governor. Enough of this crap. Just close the doors behind you ....

Comment by Thinklike A. Mountain on September 17, 2021 at 3:44pm: In my opinion, manmade climate change is a ruse as are most of the remedies like wind, solar and hype for heat pumps in cold climates. Notice the word global is found in both globalism and global warming. It is all driven by globalists who want to be big fish in a big pond, the world. The hell with national sovereignty. Their scams are thus based on ideas for which national boundaries are meaningless such as CO2, Covid, terrorists, unlimited illegal migration, etc. When a threat knows no national boundaries, there's only one solution: global government. These people are more than dishonest. They are evil. Here in the U.S., the Democrat party is the more infected but a huge number of Republicans are also on board with destroying the U.S. and ushering in a new world order. The Bush crime family is a good example.

Comment by Kenneth Capron on September 17, 2021 at 1:07pm: Is everything related to GHG a ruse? In every instance whether wind, solar, HP etc, there is a scam underlying - a government funded scam. Must be a legal action that could be brought if the Judicial system were reliable.

‹ Previous
1
2
Next ›

Table 1A, Energy Savings
Heat in propane, Btu/y, HHV	25275000
Fuel to power plant, Btu/y		23312490
Fuel to power plant, kWh/y		6833
Conversion efficiency		0.4
Fed to grid, kWh		2733
Transmission loss adjustment, 2.4%		2667
Distribution loss adjustment, 6.7%		2489
Heat in propane, Btu/gal, HHV	84250
Purchased propane, gal/y	300
Purchased electricity, kWh/y		2489
Heat in propane Btu/gal, LHV	84250
Standby, kWh		91
Defrost, kWh		154
To compressor, kWh		2244
COP		2.64
Heat for space heat, kWh		5926
Btu/kWh		3412
Furnace efficiency	0.8
Btu/y for space heat	20220000	20220000

Table 1/CO2 Reduction	With HP	With HP
Fuel displaced 35%	Electricity	Electricity
	Market based	Location based
Electricity CO2, g/kWh	33.9	317
CO2 of 2489 kWh, Mt/y	0.084	0.789
CO2 of 550 gal of propane, Mt/y	3.168	3.168
Total CO2 with HPs, Mt/y	3.253	3.957
CO2 of 850 gal of propane, Mt/y	4.897	4.897
CO2 reduction by my HPs, Mt/y	1.644	0.939
.
Fuel displaced 100%
CO2 reduction by EAN, Mt/y	4.111

Table 1	Vermont HPs	My HPs	My HPs, if 100%	Before HPs
	Per CADMUS survey			Propane
Fuel Displacement, %	27.6	35%	100%	100%
Operation	Down to 28F	Down to 15F	Down to -10F
Purchased electricity, kWh	2085	2489	8997
Standby, kWh	76	91	329
Defrost, kWh	129	154	557
Electricity to HPs, kWh	1880	2244	8111
COP, excl HP self-use	3.34	2.64	2.07
Space heat, kWh	6272	5926	16791
Btu/kWh	3412	3412	3412
Space heat, Btu/site	21400000	20220010	57290000	57290000
Efficiency				0.8
Btu/gal, LHV				84250
Unit cost	0.20	0.20	0.20	2.3390
Electricity cost, $	417	498	1799
Propane, gal		550	0	850
Propane cost, $		1286	0
Total energy cost, $		1784	1799	1988
Energy savings, $		204	189

Table 1A, Energy Savings
Heat in propane, Btu/y, HHV	25275000
Fuel to power plant, Btu/y		23312490
Fuel to power plant, kWh/y		6833
Conversion efficiency		0.4
Fed to grid, kWh		2733
Transmission loss adjustment, 2.4%		2667
Distribution loss adjustment, 6.7%		2489
Heat in propane, Btu/gal, HHV	84250
Purchased propane, gal/y	300
Purchased electricity, kWh/y		2489
Heat in propane Btu/gal, LHV	84250
Standby, kWh		91
Defrost, kWh		154
To compressor, kWh		2244
COP		2.64
Heat for space heat, kWh		5926
Btu/kWh		3412
Furnace efficiency	0.8
Btu/y for space heat	20220000	20220000

Table 1/CO2 Reduction	With HP	With HP
Fuel displaced 35%	Electricity	Electricity
	Market based	Location based
Electricity CO2, g/kWh	33.9	317
CO2 of 2489 kWh, Mt/y	0.084	0.789
CO2 of 550 gal of propane, Mt/y	3.168	3.168
Total CO2 with HPs, Mt/y	3.253	3.957
CO2 of 850 gal of propane, Mt/y	4.897	4.897
CO2 reduction, Mt/y	1.644	0.939
.
Fuel displaced 100%
CO2 reduction by EAN, Mt/y	4.111	4.111

HEAT PUMPS ARE MONEY LOSERS IN MY VERMONT HOUSE, AS THEY ARE IN ALMOST ALL NEW ENGLAND HOUSES

You need to be a member of Citizens' Task Force on Wind Power - Maine to add comments!

Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Table 2	Vermont HPs	My HPs		Before HPs
Fuel Displacement, %	27.6	35%	100%	Propane
Operation	Down to 28F	Down to 15F	Down to -10F
Purchased electricity, kWh	2085	2489	8997	850	Gal
Standby, kWh	76	91	329	0.8	Efficiency
Defrost, kWh	129	154	557	84250	Btu/gal, LHV
Electricity to HPs, kWh	1880	2244	8111
COP	3.34	2.64	2.07
Space heat, kWh	6279	5926	16791
Btu/kWh	3412	3412	3412
Space heat, kWh	21400000	20220000	57290000	57290000

Table 3	Heat	Propane	HP	Elect	Diff.
Outdoor Temp	Demand	Cost	COP	Cost
F	Btu/h	$/h		$/h	$/h
-10	40000	1.39	1.20	1.95	0.57
0	35000	1.21	1.45	1.41	0.20
5	32500	1.13	1.55	1.23	0.10
10	30000	1.04	1.75	1.00	-0.04
15	27500	0.95	1.85	0.87	-0.08
17	26500	0.92	2.14	0.73	-0.19
20	25000	0.87	2.45	0.60	-0.27
30	20000	0.69	3.00	0.39	-0.30
35	17500	0.61	3.30	0.31	-0.30
40	15000	0.52	3.70	0.24	-0.28
47	11500	0.40	4.19	0.16	-0.24
50	10000	0.35	4.40	0.13	-0.21
60	5000	0.17	5.10	0.06	-0.12
70	0

Table 4/Space heat, per CADMUS		Sites	Million Btu/site	Million Btu	%
Heat to sites		65	92.00	5,980		See URL, page 22
		HPs	Million Btu/HP
Heat from HPs	1648/5980	77	21.40	1,648	27.6	See URL, page 21
Heat from traditional	4332/5980			4,332	72.4
.
			Million Btu/site		%
Heat from HPs, on average	1648/65		25.35		27.6
Heat from traditional, on average	92.00 – 25.35 = 66.65		66.65		72.4
			92.00