Willem Post's Blog (1,037)

The rewrite of this article was prompted by an EIA report titled:

Utility-Scale Battery Storage Costs Decreased Nearly 70% Between 2015 and 2018.

The graph shows average values and ranges.

The graph shows the minimum cost trending towards $500/kWh, and the maximum cost trending towards $1000/kWh, within about 5 years. See notes.

The values are for custom-engineered, site-specific, utility-scale battery systems, i.e., greater than 2…

World Fossil Fuel Percentage Unchanged for Over 43 years

 In the 1970s the big worry was fossil fuels would soon run out, and so we should “use them wisely”. But in the 1980s the risk changed to one of an overheating planet, and so we should “leave them in the ground.”

This article shows unchanged fossil energy use from 1970 to 2013, a period of 43 years. See URL…

From 24 December, 2017 to 8 January, 2018, New England was gripped by cold weather stretch of cold weather, with all major cities in New England averaging temperatures below normal for 16 consecutive days, including 10 days with average temperatures more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal. This cold spell resulted in a temporary spike in the price of natural gas in New England, which in turn triggered heavy use of oil for electricity production and high…

Synapse Energy Economics prepared an analysis and report of state energy policy impacts on future natural gas consumption in New England’s electric sector.

http://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/New-Englands-Shrinking-Need-for-Natural-Gas-16-109.pdf

"First, with or without a new pipeline, existing laws and regulations will cumulatively…

The areas occupied by power systems for electricity generation by various energy sources for 60 years are shown in table 1. Wind and solar have short lives, i.e., 20 to 25 years, but nuclear has a life of about 60 years. Any large-scale build-out of wind and solar would have a much larger “footprint” area than nuclear.

- Nuclear produces 84 times more electricity per acre than solar during 60 years.

- Nuclear produces 612 times more electricity per acre than onshore…

Consumers should know the facts when it comes to buying a Cold Climate Heat Pump (HP) and whether it will help save money heating their house. See Appendix and URLs.

http://vermontfuel.com/heatpump/…

On December 18, 2018, a coalition of nine Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states and the District of Columbia announced their intent to design a new regional low-carbon transportation policy proposal that would cap and reduce carbon emissions from the combustion of transportation fuels, and invest funds (taxes, fees and surcharges imposed by the program) into low-carbon and more resilient transportation infrastructure.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey,…

The Vermont Comprehensive Energy Plan, CEP, projects to install about 35,000 cold-climate heat pumps, ccHPs, by 2025 to begin the transformation of about 63% of building heating to renewable electricity by 2050. About 34% would be by biomass (wood burning) and bio liquids, and only about 3% would be by fossil fuels. See page 8 of URL…

The Vermont Comprehensive Energy Plan (CEP) states biomass and bio liquids are projected to increase by 20% by 2025, on the way to doubling wood’s share of building heat by 2035. That wood share increase likely would not be obtained by increasing Vermont’s harvest, because Vermont is already harvesting in excess of US Forest service guidelines. That wood share increase likely would have to be imports from NH and NY and imported wood pellets. See page 8 of URL.…

BIOFUELS FROM POND ALGAE BY EXXON AN ECONOMIC DISASTER

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biofuels-from-pond-algae

Since 2009, ExxonMobil and Synthetic Genomics have been partners in research and development of oil from algae to produce biofuels to replace traditional transportation fuels.

In 2017, ExxonMobil and Synthetic…

The main purpose of replacing gasoline and diesel fuel with biofuels is to reduce CO2eq emissions. This analysis found:

- Replacing gasoline with 100% ethanol reduces CO2eq from 1504 MMt to 1431 MMt, or 4.9%

- Replacing diesel fuel with 100% biofuel reduces CO2eq from 587 MMt to 234 MMt, or 60.1%.

These values are less than are usually stated, because upstream CO2eq emissions were included.

In case of ethanol, E100, the combustion CO2eq…

Long-Term Road Test of Tesla Model 3

Edmunds, in California, has been performing a long-term road test of a Tesla Model 3 since January 2018. Here are the latest results from the Edmunds website.…

RE proponents want to “electrify” the Vermont transportation sector. That means:

- Much less consumption of gasoline and much more generation of electricity.

- Internal combustion engines using gasoline, hereafter called E10 (a blend of 90% gasoline/10% ethanol from corn), would be replaced with electric vehicles.

For this article, it is assumed:

- Only EVs will be used to replace IC vehicles that currently are using gasoline. 

-…

The EPA has a unique method of calculating the mileage of an electric vehicle. The EPA calls its MPGeq. The method is a grand deception of the US public. It is used nowhere else in the world.

Auto manufacturers did not object, because they were allowed to use the inflated EPA MPGeq values to boost their fleet averages. However, when rosy EV sales projections did not happen, the “54.5 mpg fleet average by 2025” proved to be an off-the-charts fantasy, and auto…

Primary Energy Sources Requiring Combustion

Source energy is the energy taken from the earth, such as from a well, a mine, a forest. The energy for exploration, extraction, processing and transport is used to convert the source energy to primary energy for the US economy. The US electrical system uses about 40% of all primary energy.

- Source energy is the energy taken from coalmines, oil and gas wells, and forests for conversion (by means of…

New England has the highest electric rates of any region in the US.

New England has the worst wind conditions of any region in the US, except the South, and the worst solar conditions, except the the rainy, overcast US Northwest.

See NREL wind map and NREL solar map.

https://www.nrel.gov/gis/images/100m_wind/awstwspd100onoff3-1.jpg…

SunCommon of Vermont commissioned Synapse-Energy to perform a study that would show the benefits of before-the-meter (BTM) solar. The study shows there were almost $20 million of benefits for all of New England, about $1.3 million for Vermont during the very sunny period of July 1 to July 7; that period had very little wind, and thus almost no wind generation.

That joyous news was released with much fanfare, plus admonitions from SunCommon not to reduce solar…

RE proponents want to “electrify” the New England transportation sector. That means:

- Much less consumption of gasoline and much more generation of electricity.

- Internal combustion engines using gasoline, hereafter called E10 (a blend of 90% gasoline/10% ethanol from corn), would be replaced with electric vehicles.

For this article, it is assumed only EVs will be used to replace IC vehicles that currently are using gasoline. Hybrids would not be…

Connecticut Governor Dannell Malloy, Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo, and Vermont Governor Phil Scott held a meeting about energy and issued a statement, which included the following topics.

The wording of the Governors Statement reflects the thinking of various RE proponents that appear to have hijacked the proceedings, such as the:

- Conservation Law Foundation

- Acadia…

VEIC, BERC and EV: Vermont Energy Investment Corporation, VEIC, a non-profit, quasi-government entity, assumed control of:

- Efficiency Vermont in 2008. EV, a quasi-government entity, is financed by a state-mandated surcharge on electric bills, about $60 million in 2016, which is annually increasing.

- Biomass Energy Research Center, BERC, a non-profit, in 2012. BERC became an in-house, captive entity that performs biomass studies for VEIC, Vermont…