REPLACING GASOLINE AND DIESEL FUEL WITH BIOFUELS

The main purpose of replacing gasoline and diesel fuel with biofuels is to reduce CO2eq emissions. This analysis found:

 

- Replacing gasoline with 100% ethanol reduces CO2eq from 1504 MMt to 1431 MMt, or 4.9%

- Replacing diesel fuel with 100% biofuel reduces CO2eq from 587 MMt to 234 MMt, or 60.1%.

 

These values are less than are usually stated, because upstream CO2eq emissions were included.

In case of ethanol, E100, the combustion CO2eq emissions are 12.754 lb/gal and upstream are 15.041 lb/gal. The combustion emissions are not counted, but upstream emissions are counted. See Appendix 1.

 

In case of biodiesel, B100, the combustion CO2eq emissions are 20.829 lb/gal and upstream are 10.524 lb/gal. The combustion emissions are not counted, but upstream emissions are counted. See Appendix 1.

NOTE: Politics is the only reason the ethanol from corn program exists. If the 32.214 million acres planted with corn for E100 in 2017 were instead planted with soybeans, there would be a (32.214, E100 + 10.857, B100)/10.857, B100 = 3.96 times increase in biofuel from soybeans and a far greater reduction in CO2eq. Politicians knew that, but set up the heavily subsidized ethanol from corn program anyway, at great cost to the public treasury.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/politically-inspired-ma...

US Biodiesel Production

 

The US production of biodiesel, B100, from all feedstock sources increased 19.2% during the 2013 -2017 period. See table 1

https://www.agmrc.org/renewable-energy/renewable-energy-climate-cha...

 

Table 1	Production	Growth
US B100 Production	million gallons	%
2013	1339
2014	1271
2015	1268
2016	1569
2017	1596	19.2

US B100 Major Feed stocks

B100 can be made from soybeans and other sources, such as tallow (fat) from rendering plants, used cooking oils, vegetable oils, and algae and kelp. In the U.S., soybean oil and used cooking oils are the most common feedstocks.

 

NOTE: B100 from algae is an area of ongoing research. Algae could potentially produce 10 to 300 times more B100 per acre than other crops. Any projections regarding the future availability of B100 from algae would be merely guesswork. It likely would take decades before mass production would be a reality of any significance.

 

The major feedstock sources are shown in table 2.

 

Table 2	Quantity	Quantity	B100
US B100 Feedstocks	million lb	million lb	billion gallon
Vegetable fats	2016	2017	2017
Soybean oil	6096	6230	0.826
Corn oil	1306	1579
Canola oil	1130	1452
Total	10548	11278
.
Animal fats
Yellow grease	1389	1471
Choice white grease	578	591
Tallow	332	340
Poultry fat	220	230
Total	2519	2632
B100 from all other sources			0.770
Total B100 production			1.596
US diesel consumption			45.833

 

NOTE: The tallow and poultry fat data for 2017 were assumed, as they were not yet available

 

US Gasoline and Diesel Consumption in 2017

In 2017, the US consumed 142.980 billion gallons of “gasoline”, which included 14.798 billion gallons of E100

If the US were to replace all petro-gasoline with E100, about 424 million acres would need to be planted in corn.

 

In 2017, the US consumed 45.833 billion gallon of “diesel”, which included 1.986 billion gallon of B100

If the US were to replace all petro-diesel with B100, about 651 million acres would need to be planted in soybeans.

US Cropland

 

The US planted crops on about 334 million acres in 2017. It would be a miracle, if the US could increase its crop area by 50 million acres. See major crops in table and URLs.

 

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/Acre/Acre-06-29-2018.pdf

See Summary Table 3 of URL.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx

 

Table/2017	Million acre
Corn	89.1
Soybean	89.6
Hay	55.0
All wheat	47.8
All cotton	13.5

US Ethanol (E100) from Corn

 

During 2017, the US planted 89.1 million acre in corn, of which 32.214 million acre were dedicated to E100.

E100 production was 15.936 billion gallon. See table 4.

Click table 10.3, xls of eia URL.

 

https://www.agweb.com/article/usda-2017-corn-production-down-despit...

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=90&t=4

https://www.afdc.energy.gov/data/10339

 

Table 4/E100 from Corn	2017
Planted, million acre	89.100
Crop, all uses, billion bushel	14.604
Crop, E100 from corn, billion bushel	5.280
Yield, bushel/acre	176.6
.
Planted for ethanol, all uses, million acre	32.214
Planted for E100, blending, million acre	29.913
Ethanol production, all uses, billion gallon	15.936
Yield, gal/acre; 1000 x 15.936/32.214	495
E100 for blending, billion gallon	14.798

 

Replace US Petro-Gasoline with E100 From Corn

 

US “gasoline” consumption was 142.298 billion gal in 2017, per EIA

E100 blended with petro-gasoline was 14.798 billion gal from 29.913 million acres of corn

Petro-gasoline was 128.182 billion gal

E100 was about 7.06% of the total Btu of “gasoline” consumption, based on LHV

Additional E100 would be 128.182 x 116090/76330 = 194.952 billion gal, based on LHV

Total E100 would be 14.798, existing + 194.952, new = 209.750 billion gal

Total cropland for blending ethanol would be about 29.913 x 209.750/14.798 = 423.992 million acres to replace all US petro-gasoline with E100. See table 5

 

https://www.uaex.edu/publications/PDF/FSA-1050.pdf

https://www.statista.com/statistics/189410/us-gasoline-and-diesel-c...

https://unitedsoybean.org/media-center/issue-briefs/biodiesel/  

NOTE: A fuel has a higher and lower heating value, Btu/gal. Some of the Btus are used during combustion to create water vapor, leaving only the lower heating value, LHV, Btus to perform useful work.Any replacement of petro-gasoline would be by replacing its LHV Btus with ethanol having an equal LHV Btus. See Appendix.

 

Table 5/2017	“Gasoline”
Consumption, 1000 barrel/d	9326.81
gal/barrel	42	TBtu, LHV
“Gasoline”, billion gal	142.980	16010.180
Petro-gasoline, billion gal	128.182	14880.648
E100 for blending, billion gal	14.798	1129.531
Planted for E100 blending, million acres	29.913
Additional E100, billion gal	194.952
Total E100, billion gal	209.750
Total acres in corn, million acres	423.992
E100, % of total Btu, LHV		7.06

 

US Biodiesel (B100) From Soybean and Other Sources

 

The US planted about 89.6 million acres in soybeans in 2017.

The soybean crop, all uses, was 4.390 billion bushel, for a yield of about 4.39 x 1000/89.6 = 49 bushel/acre

 

B100 production required 6.230 billion pounds of soybean oil from 0.532 billion bushels in 2017, or 11.654 lb oil/bushel. See URL.

 

https://unitedsoybean.org/media-center/issue-briefs/biodiesel/

https://www.eia.gov/biofuels/biodiesel/production/

 

The soybean crop for B100 required about 0.532, B100/4.39, all uses x 89.6 = 10.857 million acres.  

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2018/01_12_2018.php

 

B100 produced from soybean oil was 0.826 billion gallon in 2017

B100 from other sources was 0.770 billion gallon. See table 6

 

Click on the 10.4, xls, in the URL to see the values in table

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.php#renewable

 

NOTE: Renewable diesel is made from used, petro-based grease and used, petro-based lubricating oils. It is not B100. Its CO2eq has to be counted.

 

Table 6	million gallon	Tbtu, LHV
B100 from soybeans	826	98.748
B100 from other sources	770	92.054
B100 total production	1596	190.802
Imports	301	35.985
Inventory	88	10.520
B100, total consumption	1985	237.307

 

Total US diesel fuel consumption was 45.833 billion gallon in 2017, which included 1985 billion gallon of B100. See table 7

https://www.statista.com/statistics/189410/us-gasoline-and-diesel-c...

 

Table 7
B100 from soybeans	2017
Crop, bushel/acre/y	49
Weight, lb/bushel	60
Crop weight, lb/acre	2940
Oil, lb/bushel; see URL	11.654
Oil, lb/acre/y	571
Process yield	0.973
B100, lb/acre/y	556
Weight, lb/gal	7.3
B100, gal/acre/y	76
B100, gal/bu	1.55
.
Soybeans, billion bu; see URL	0.532
Area, million acres	10.857

 

Replace US Petro-Diesel with B100 from Soybeans

 

US “diesel” consumption was 45,833 billion gal in 2017, per EIA

B100 blended with petro-diesel was 1,985 billion gal from various sources. See table 6.

Petro-diesel was 43.848 billion gal

B100 was about 4.00% of the total Btu of “diesel” consumption, based on LHV

Additional B100 would be 43.848 x 129488/119550 = 47,493 billion gal, based on LHV.

Total B100 would be 1.985, existing + 47.493, new = 49.478 billion gal

Total cropland for B100 would be about 49.478 billion gal/76 gal/acre = 651 million acres, if no imports. See table 9

https://www.statista.com/statistics/189410/us-gasoline-and-diesel-c...

 

Table 9/2017	"Diesel"	Petro-diesel in blend	Petro-diesel
US consumption, 1000 barrel/d	2989.78
US consumption, 1000 barrel/y	1091270
gal/barrel	42
US consumption, billion gallon/y	45.833	1.985	43.848
Tbtu, LHV	5934.866	237.307	5697.559
B100 in blend, % of Btus	4.00
Additional B100 to replace diesel, b gallon	47.658
Total B100, billion gallon	49.643
Yield, gal/acre	76
Total acres, million	651
.
HHV, Btu/gal	138490	127960
LHV, Btu/gal	129488	119550

Additional Sources of Information:

 

https://ethanolrfa.org/resources/industry/statistics/#1537811482060...

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_a_EPM0F_VPP_mbbl_a.htm

https://www.agmrc.org/renewable-energy/renewable-energy-climate-cha...

https://ethanolrfa.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/2017-U.S.-Ethanol...

CO2eq Reduction

 

The CO2eq reduction is significant, because the combustion CO2 of E100 and B100 are not counted, per international agreement.

 

The CO2eq reduction would be 1504 - 1431 = 73 million metric ton, or about a 4.9% reduction.

See Appendix 2 for CO2eq data.

 

CO2eq reduction				Comb'n	Upstream	Comb'n	Upstream	Total
Table 10	LHV	Consume	LHV	CO2eq	CO2eq	CO2eg	CO2eg	CO2eg
Before	Btu/gal	b gallon	Tbtu	lb/gal	lb/gal	million mt	million mt	million mt
Petro-gasoline, table 5	116090	128.182	14881	19.301	4.825	1122	281	1403
E100, table 6	76330	14.798	1130	0	15.041	0	101	101
Total		142.980	16010			1122	381	1504
After
E100, table 5	76330	209.750	16010	0	15.041	0	1431	1431

The CO2eq reduction would be 587 - 234 = 352 million metric ton, or about a 60.1% reduction.

See Appendix 2 for CO2eq data.

 

CO2eq reduction				Comb’n	Upstream	Comb’n	Upstream	Total
Table 11	LHV	Consume	LHV	CO2eq	CO2eq	CO2eq	CO2eq	CO2eq
Before	Btu/gal	b gallon	Tbtu	lb/gal	lb/gal	million mt	million mt	million mt
Petro-diesel, table 8	128488	43.848	5634	22.638	6.381	450	127	577
B100, table 6	119550	1.985	237	0	10.524	0	9	9
Total		45.833	5871			450	136	587
After
B100, table 9	119550	49.112	5871	0	10.524	0	234	234

APPENDIX 1

Combustion CO2eq

 

The combustion CO2eq of various fuels are shown in table 1. See URLs

 

https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/fuel_comparison_chart.pdf

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-07/documents/emissi...

 

Table 1/Combustion	CO2	CH4	N2O	CO2eq	CO2eq
		25	298		2.2026
	kg/MBtu	g/M Btu	g/M Btu	kg/M Btu	lb//MBtu
E100	68.440	1.10	0.11	68.500	150.882
Gasoline	70.220	3.00	0.60	70.474	155.229
E10	70.042	2.81	0.55	70.276	154.794
Diesel	73.960	3.00	0.60	74.214	163.467
B100	73.840	1.10	0.11	73.900	162.776
B20	73.936	2.62	0.50	74.151	163.328
.
Mbtu = million Btu

Upstream CO2eq

 

The upstream CO2eq of various fuels are shown in table 2. See URLs

 

https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/042308lcfs_etoh.pdf

https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/121514ulsd.pdf

https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/092309lcfs_uco_bd.pdf

https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/100308lcfs_soybiodsl.pdf

HHVs from

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-07/documents/emissi...

 

Table 2/Upstream	g CO2eq/MJ	g/MJ to lb/Mbtu	lb CO2eq/Mbtu	Btu/gal	gal/Mbtu	lb CO2eq/gal
E100	76.500	2.326	177.939	84000	11.905	14.947
Gasoline	16.680	2.326	38.798	125000	8.000	4.850
E10	22.662	2.326	52.712	120900	8.271	6.373
Diesel	19.810	2.326	46.078	138000	7.246	6.359
B100	31.660	2.326	73.641
B100	3.700	2.326	8.606
Total B100	35.360	2.326	82.247	128000	7.813	10.528
B20	22.920	2.326	53.312	136000	7.353	7.250
MBtu = million Btu

1 g/MJ x 1 lb/453.59237 g x 1.05506 GJ/1 MBtu = 2.326 lb/MBtu.

Combustion + Upstream CO2eq

 

The higher and lower heating values and upstream and combustion CO2eq of various fuels are shown in table 3. The upstream CO2eq/gal of E100 is greater than its combustion CO2eq/gal! See URLs.

https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/fuel_comparison_chart.pdf

 

Table 3/Comb'n + Upstr	Combustion	Upstream	Total	Total, no bio
	lb CO2eq/MBtu	lb CO2eq/MBtu	lb CO2eq/MBtu	lb CO2eq/MBtu
E100	150.882	177.939	328.821	177.939
Gasoline	155.239	38.798	194.037	194.037
E10	154.794	52.712	207.506	192.027
Diesel	163.467	46.078	209.545	209.545
B100	162.776	73.641	236.417	73.641
B20	163.328	53.312	216.640	183.974
.
MBtu = million Btu

Natural Gas and Liquefied Natural Gas

 

The CO2eq and CO2eq factors of NG and LNG are shown in table 4. The upstream energy factors were assumed to be the same as the CO2eq factors, because I was unable to find the upstream energy for extraction, processing and transport of NG and LNG. See URLs.

 

Comparative Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of LNG versus Coal and Gas for Electricity Generation

Google the title and the PDF will appear.

http://www.igu.org/sites/default/files/node-page-field_file/LNGLife...

 

The high CO2eq factor for LNG is due to the additional processing of natural gas, liquefying, storing, loading into tankers, tanker transport and losses during transport, unloading from tanker and storing, re-gasifying and distribution.

 

Table	Combustion	Upstream	Combustion + Upstream	CO2eq factor
	lb/mil’n Btu	lb/mil’n Btu	lb/mil’n Btu
NG CO2eq	120.000	20.4	140.400	0.1700
LNG CO2eq	120.000	51.4	171.400	0.4283

APPENDIX 2

Vermont Comprehensive Energy Plan:The CEP, issued by the Vermont Department of Public Service, DPS, has a goal to have 90% of ALL primary energy from renewables by 2050, such as wind, solar, hydro, biomass, E100, B100, etc.

 

Energy Action Network, EAN, provided major input to the CEP. It performs engineering analyses for various Vermont RE entities and for the Vermont Department of Public Service, DPS.

 

The estimated capital cost of the CEP, as estimated by EAN, is at least $33 billion by 2050, or about ONE BILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR, or about 6 to 7 times greater than current annual RE investments in Vermont.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-s-90-percent-re...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-energy-transfor...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/90-or-100-renewable-ene...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/gmp-and-vermont-s-90-re...

 

Table 1 was compiled from the tables in the URL.

http://eanvt.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/EAN-2050-Energy-Analysi...

 

Table 1	PE							CEP goals
EAN	Total	Transport	Thermal	B100	B100	Biomass	Biomass	Non-RE/RE
	TBtu	TBtu	TBtu	TBtu	%	TBtu	%	%
2010	148.40			0.00	0.00	5.75	3.67	88/12
2020	136.62	1.50	0.00	1.50	1.10	8.66	6.34	80/20
2030	116.61	8.20	3.30	8.20	7.03	12.86	11.03	60/40
2040	93.32	14.61	6.61	21.22	22.74	15.70	16.82	32/68
2050	95.27	25.28	9.91	35.19	36.94	16.18	16.98	10/90

 

EAN Biomass Claim is a Baseless Fantasy

 

- EAN estimated biomass at 16.98% of all VT PE in 2050. See table 1.

- EAN estimated the biomass harvest to be 16.18/5.75 = 2.81 times larger in 2050 than in 2010.

- EAN did not mention where the additional trees and other biomass would be sourced.

- EAN mentioned more wood pellet stoves. Would the pellets come from out-of-state? See table 1.

 http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wood-for-fuel-logging-i...

 

- VT annual wood harvest already is about 350,000 dry ton in excess of the US Forest Service recommended limit for removals, i.e., about 50% of the annual growth rate of above ground biomass.

- McNeil and Ryegate, old-technology wood-burning power plants (efficiency about 24%; modern plants about 30%) use about 347,342 (in-state) + 371,691 (out-of-state) = 719,033 green ton/y.

- Those plants should be closed down to make the wood available for more efficient purposes. See URLs.

- VT is harvesting in excess on its own land, plus it is importing from NH and NY.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/is-burning-wood-co-2-ne...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-wood-harvesting...

 

EAN Biofuel Claim is a Baseless Fantasy

 

- EAN estimated B100 at 36.94% of all VT PE in 2050. See table 1.

- That likely assumes major breakthroughs in B100 production from pond algae, because, significant additional B100 could not possibly come from land-based crops.

- The CO2eq of upstream energy for make-up seawater to maintain salinity, for operating and maintaining the facilities, for large quantities of fertilizer to grow algae, for processing the oil into B100, likely from fossil sources for at least the next few decades, has to be counted. That CO2eq could equal at least 40% of the combustion CO2eq.

- The CO2eq of fossil fuels is from carbon that was buried many millions of years ago. See URL

 

There is not enough land area in all of Vermont to produce 35.19TBtu/y of B100 from soybeans, and there is not enough sunshine to economically produce it from pond algae. See table 2 and URL.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biofuels-from-pond-algae

 

Table 2/VT B100 in 2050
Soybean, gal/acre/y	76
Btu/gal, LHV	119550
Yield, Btu/acre/y	9085800
Tbtu from B100 in 2050	35.19
Soybean cropland, acres	3874177

 

EAN estimates appear to be extremely excessive, based on the small quantities of biofuel likely to be produced by 2030. See tables 1 and 2 in URL.

 

US population is about 325 million

VT population is about 0.62 million

 

EAN projected 1.50 TBtu in 2020. If scaled to US levels, US consumption would be 1.50 x 325/0.62 = 786 TBtu.

EAN projected 8.20 TBtu in 2030. If scaled to US levels, US consumption would be 8.20 x 325/0.062 = 4298 TBtu.

EAN projected 21.22 TBtu in 2040. If scaled to US levels, US consumption would be 21.22 x 325/0.62 = 11123 TBtu

 

There is no way the US could produce that much TBtu from land cropping, animal sources, and pond algae by 2030 or 2040. 

 

EAN projections for 2050 is even more excessive, as almost all of that biofuel would have to be from pond algae, i.e., it could not come from land crops due to a lack of cropland. See URLs.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biofuels-from-pond-algae

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/replacing-gasoline-and-...

 

Table3/Year	CEP projection	Implied US consumption	Estimated US production
	TBtu	TBtu	TBtu
2020	1.50	786
2030	8.20	4298	506.2
2040	21.22	11123	2153.2

APPENDIX 3

Higher and Lower Heating Values of Fuels

The higher heating value, HHV, is the heat content in a fuel, such as Btu/lb

The lower heating value, LHV, is the heat content in a fuel available to an internal combustion engine.

 

Any replacement of petro-diesel fuel and petro-gasoline would be by replacing their total Btus, based on LHVs, with biofuels having an equal total Btus, based on LHVs.

 

- E10, usually called gasoline, also called gasohol, is a blend of 90% gasoline and 10% ethanol, E100, from corn.

- B100 is 100% biodiesel

- B20 is a blend of 80% petro-diesel and 20% B100

See table 3 and URL.

https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/fuel_comparison_chart.pdf

https://h2tools.org/hyarc/calculator-tools/lower-and-higher-heating...

 

Table	Ethanol	Gasoline	E10 (90/10)	Petro-diesel, LS	B100	B20 (80/20)	NG	LNG
HHV, Btu/gal	84530	124340	120359	138490	127960	136384	22453	23735
LHV, Btu/gal	76330	116090	112114	129488	119550	127500	20267	20908