BIOFUELS FROM POND ALGAE

Since 2009, ExxonMobil and Synthetic Genomics have been partners in research and development of oil from algae to produce biofuels to replace traditional transportation fuels.

 

In 2017, ExxonMobil and Synthetic Genomics announced breakthrough research published in Nature Biotechnology that resulted in a modified algae strain that more than doubled oil content without significantly inhibiting growth, a key challenge along the path to commercial scalability.

 

In the California desert near the Salton Sea and the tiny town of Calipatria, an acre-size rectangular pond is filled with saltwater and algae. The pond is one of several at the site for the production of biofuel at scale.

 

“The goal is a sustainable, renewable biofuel that can be cost-competitive with pumping oil out of the ground, but can scale to levels that go far beyond demonstration levels, according to Oliver Fetzer, chief executive officer at Synthetic Genomics.

 

In 2017, the partners announced, after nine years of research, they had solved one key challenge for making biofuel from algae. By tweaking a particular gene in a certain species of algae, the algae produced twice as much fat as it would in the wild, but still grow as quickly as usual. That fat can be made into biofuel.

 

Scientists are continuing development of the basic biology to make algae even more productive. That effort is in parallel with solving engineering challenges to efficiently grow and harvest algae.

 

In the ponds, engineers are studying how to best move algae to expose it to the most sunlight and CO2, both of which it needs to grow. At first, the testing will be with natural strains of algae. Later, the testing will be with gene-edited algae. The partners need time to obtain acceptance by regulators and the public.

 

In seven years, 2025, and continued advancements regarding gene-editing and farming of algae, they estimate production of about 10,000 barrels of biofuels from algae per day. That’s a tiny amount compared to crude production.

 

“Ten thousand barrels a day would be world-scale for current biofuels,” says Vijay Swarup, vice president for research and development at ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company. “It is an important step, because we will learn about the engineering fundamentals tied with the biology fundamentals. The goal is hundreds of thousands of barrels a day. If we didn’t think this as scalable, reliable, affordable, and sustainable, we would not be working on it. We proceed only with scalable solutions. We are not interested in niche applications or additive applications. The goal is large scale.”

 

The algae would be grown on arid land that is not capable of growing food crops

The process uses saltwater to avoid burdening the local water supply

At some sites, including the test site near the Salton Sea, the algae farms may be able to use waste CO2.

 

Exxon’s continued investments in non-fossil-fuels is happening under a cloud of increasing attention–and major lawsuits–for how much the company knew about the climate... its product was causing.

 

Startup efforts by other companies attempting to make biofuels from algae have failed in the past, in part because they made rosy assumptions about oil prices.

 

Whereas a truck running on biofuel still has CO2eq emissions, those combustion emissions can be considered carbon neutral, because the algae absorb almost all of the CO2eq as it grows.

Upstream CO2eq: The CO2eq of upstream energy, likely from fossil sources for at least the next few decades, has to be counted. That CO2eq could equal at least 40% of the combustion CO2eq. That CO2eq would be from:

 

- Providing make-up seawater to maintain salinity

- Operating and maintaining the facilities

- Providing large quantities of fertilizer to grow algae

- Processing the algae oil into B100

- Transporting the B100 to users

 

NOTE: The CO2 of fossil fuels is from carbon that was buried many millions of years ago.

 

https://www.fastcompany.com/40539606/exxon-thinks-it-can-create-bio...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/replacing-gasoline-and-...

US BIOFUEL PRODUCTION BY 2040

 

Exxon-Mobil From Pond Algae

 

Table 1 shows Exxon-Mobil extrapolated to 1830.0 TBtu/y by 2040.

Most estimates for biofuel from pond algae are about 5000 gal/acre/y

By comparison, biofuel from soybean oil was about 76 gal/acre/y in 2017

 

Table 1	Production	Production	LHV	Area	Time
	million gal/y	million barrel/d	TBtu/y	million acre	year
World crude oil		97.000			2018
US crude oil		11.000			2018
US gasoline*	142980.0	9.327	14881.0	29.900	2017
US diesel*	43848.0	2.860	5634.0		2017
US biodiesel, B100, traditional	1596.0	0.104	190.8	20.000	2017
Exxon-Mobil B100; algae	153.3	0.010	18.3	0.031	2025
Exxon-Mobil B100 x 10; algae	1533.0	0.100	183.0	0.307	2030
Exxon-Mobil B100 x 100; algae	15330.0	1.000	1830.0	3.070	2040

 

* US gasoline includes 14798 million gallon of ethanol, E100, which required 29.9 million acre in corn. US diesel includes 1596 million gallon of B100, which required 20.0 million acre in various crops, plus B100 from animal sources. Imports are excluded.

US Biodiesel Production From Traditional Sources

 

US production of biodiesel, B100, from all feedstock sources, increased 19.2% during the 2013 - 2017 period.

Extrapolating the same growth to 2030, B100 production would increase from 190.8 TBtu in 2017 to 323.2 TBtu in 2030.

US cropland for E100l from corn was 29.9 million acres

US cropland for B100 from various sources was about 10.857, soybean + 9.143, other = 20.0 million acres.

Increasing that B100 cropland area by about 323.2/190.8 = 69% by 2030 would be a major effort. See table 2.

https://www.agmrc.org/renewable-energy/renewable-energy-climate-cha...

 

Table 2	Production	Growth	TBtu	Area
US B100 Production	million gallons	%		million acre
2013	1339
2014	1271
2015	1268
2016	1569
2017	1596	19.2	190.8	20.0
2021	1902	19.2
2026	2268	19.2
2030	2702	19.2	323.2	33.9

Estimated Future US Biofuel Production

 

The estimated US biofuel production for 2030 and 2040 would be as shown in table 3.

B100 from traditional sources is assumed not to grow from 2030 to 2040, due to a lack of cropland.

 

Table 3/Biofuel production	2030	Cropland/Pond area	2040	Cropland/Pond area
	TBtu	million acre	TBtu	million acre
Exxon-Mobil, pond algae	183.0	0.307	1830.0	3.070
B100, traditional sources	323.2	33.900	323.2	33.900
Total	506.2	34.200	2153.2	36.970

APPENDIX 1

Vermont Energy Action Network, EAN, performs engineering analyses for Vermont RE entities and the Vermont Department of Public Service, DPS.

 

The VT Comprehensive Energy Plan, CEP, prepared by DPS, has a goal to have 90% of ALL primary energy, PE, from renewables by 2050, such as wind, solar, biomass, ethanol, E100, biofuel, B100, etc. EAN provided major input to the CEP. Table 4 is from tables in URL.

http://eanvt.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/EAN-2050-Energy-Analysi...

 

Table 4	PE							CEP goals
EAN	Total	Transport	Thermal	B100	B100	Biomass	Biomass	Non-RE/RE
	TBtu	TBtu	TBtu	TBtu	%	TBtu	%	%
2010	148.40			0.00	0.00	5.75	3.67	88/12
2020	136.62	1.50	0.00	1.50	1.10	8.66	6.34	80/20
2030	116.61	8.20	3.30	8.20	7.03	12.86	11.03	60/40
2040	93.32	14.61	6.61	21.22	22.74	15.70	16.82	32/68
2050	95.27	25.28	9.91	35.19	36.94	16.18	16.98	10/90

 

EAN Projected Biomass

 

- EAN estimated biomass at 16.98% of all VT PE in 2050 (table 4).

- EAN estimated the biomass harvest to be 16.18/5.75 = 2.81 times larger in 2050 than in 2010.

- EAN did not mention where the additional trees and other biomass would be sourced.

- EAN mentioned more wood pellet stoves. Would the pellets come from out-of-state? See table 4.

 http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wood-for-fuel-logging-i...

 

- VT annual wood harvest already is about 350,000 dry ton in excess of the US Forest Service recommended limit for removals, i.e., about 50% of the annual growth rate of above ground biomass.

- McNeil and Ryegate, old-technology wood-burning power plants, efficiency about 24%; new plants would be about 30%) use about 347,342 (in-state) + 371,691 (out-of-state) = 719,033 green ton/y.

- Those plants should be closed down to make the wood available for more efficient purposes. See URLs.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/is-burning-wood-co-2-ne...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-wood-harvesting...

 

EAN Projected B100

 

- EAN estimated B100 at 36.94% of all VT PE in 2050 (table 4).

- That likely assumes major breakthroughs in B100 production from pond algae, because, significant additional B100 could not possibly come from land-based crops.

- The CO2eq of upstream energy for make-up seawater to maintain salinity, for operating and maintaining the facilities, for large quantities of fertilizer to grow algae, for processing the oil into B100, likely from fossil sources for at least the next few decades, has to be counted. That CO2eq could equal at least 40% of the combustion CO2eq.

- The CO2eq of fossil fuels is from carbon that was buried many millions of years ago. See URL

- There is not enough land area in all of Vermont to produce 35.19TBtu/y of B100 from soybeans, and there is not enough sunshine to economically produce it from pond algae. See table 5

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biofuels-from-pond-algae

 

Table 5/VT B100 in 2050
Soybean, gal/acre/y	76
Btu/gal, LHV	119550
Yield, Btu/acre/y	9085800
Tbtu from B100 in 2050	35.19
Soybean cropland, acres	3874177

 

EAN estimates appear to be extremely excessive, based on the small quantities of biofuel likely to be produced by 2030. See tables 1 and 2 in URL.

 

US population is about 325 million

VT population is about 0.62 million

 

EAN projected 1.50 TBtu in 2020. If scaled to US levels, US consumption would be 1.50 x 325/0.62 = 786 TBtu.

EAN projected 8.20 TBtu in 2030. If scaled to US levels, US consumption would be 8.20 x 325/0.062 = 4298 TBtu.

EAN projected 21.22 TBtu in 2040. If scaled to US levels, US consumption would be 21.22 x 325/0.62 = 11123 TBtu

There is no way the US could produce that much TBtu from land cropping, animal sources, and pond algae by 2030 or 2040. 

EAN projections for 2050 is even more excessive, as almost all of that biofuel would have to be from pond algae, i.e., it could not come from land crops due to a lack of cropland.

See table 3, 4 and 6 of URL.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biofuels-from-pond-algae

 

Table6/Year	CEP projection	Implied US consumption	Estimated US production
	TBtu	TBtu	TBtu
2020	1.50	786
2030	8.20	4298	506.2
2040	21.22	11123	2153.2