SYNAPSE STUDY OF NEW ENGLAND FUTURE GAS CONSUMPTION AND PIPELINE REQUIREMENTS

Synapse Energy Economics prepared an analysis and report of state energy policy impacts on future natural gas consumption in New England’s electric sector.

http://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/New-Englands-Shri...

"First, with or without a new pipeline, existing laws and regulations will cumulatively require New England’s use of natural gas for electric generation to decrease by 27 percent by 2023, relative to 2015 levels."  

The below section ALTERNATIVE EVALUATION OF GAS CONSUMPTION AND PIPELINES, shows there will be no shrinking of NE gas requirements due to:

- Normal GDP growth of the NE economy of about 2%/y

- Millions of additional heat pumps for building space heating to replace about 1/3 of the fossil fuels presently used by traditional heating systems. The traditional systems would supply the other 2/3.

- Millions of light duty electric vehicles to replace light duty internal combustion vehicles.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fact-checking-regarding...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-baseless-claims...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/replacing-gasoline-cons...

Imported High-Cost Liquid Natural Gas Versus Low-Cost Domestic Natural Gas:

Synapse and its clients want to ship more LNG through the Everett terminal, but one must not forget that additional LNG would not be coming from friendly Trinidad at about $5/million Btu, but from hostile Russia and the Middle East at about $9/million Btu, in foreign-owned tankers, built in foreign shipyards, crewed by foreigners.

Sending $dollars abroad to buy gas when the US has an abundance of gas appears not too smart to me. It is downright subversive, as it would be adding to the US trade deficit and would fail to put America first.

Sponsors of Synapse Studies

1) Synapse was hired by the following anti-pipeline/anti-fossil fuel entities:

- The Connecticut Fund for the Environment, Consumers for Sensible Energy

- Mass Energy Consumers Alliance

- Pipe Line Awareness Network for the Northeast Sierra Club Connecticut

- Sierra Club Massachusetts

2) Synapse performed an analysis of the ISO-NE “Operational Fuel Security Analysis”. See URL.

https://www.clf.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Understanding-ISO-NE...

An RE activist group paid Synapse:

- Conservation Law Foundation

- Acadia Center

- New Hampshire Office of the Consumer Advocate

- PowerOptions

- RENEW Northeast

- Vermont Energy Investment Corporation

The group did not like the way ISO-NE had made its analysis.

The group is avidly promoting wind, solar, and other measures.

Synapse is their go-to consultant to provide them with reports that support their views and objectives.

The Synapse analysis claimed:

- The ISO-NE analysis "suffers" from being overly conservative and therefore used flawed assumptions about how the NE grid is likely to evolve in the future.

- ISO-NE is not being realistic regarding current grid and fuel conditions, and also not understanding the future development of RE, in particular wind and solar.

- ISO-NE did not sufficiently take into account the mandated RE build-outs enacted by the six legislatures of New England.

3) The following RE entities are agitating, by various means, in favor of high-cost LNG instead of abundant, low-cost, domestic NG from Pennsylvania.

- Sierra Club

- Conservation Law Foundation

- Acadia Center

- New Hampshire Office of the Consumer Advocate

- PowerOptions

- RENEW Northeast

- Vermont Energy Investment Corporation

- Cere

These RE entities are against more pipelines for bringing gas from Pennsylvania, because they know what is good for us.

They are adamant about weaning us off fossil fuels, no matter what the cost or inconvenience.

They are in favor of more Russian/Middle East LNG that costs about 3 times as much as gas from Pennsylvania, and emits about 1.43/1.17 = 22.2% more CO2 than gas from Pennsylvania.

They think choosing to emit more CO2 for decades while “building out wind and solar” would be saving the world. See Appendix.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/new-england-will-need-t...

ALTERNATIVE EVALUATION OF GAS CONSUMPTION AND PIPELINES

Below is presented an alternative evaluation of NE gas consumption and additional pipelines. Other aspects are:

- Arranging existing gas turbine plants for duel-fuel (gas and fuel oil) firing

- Providing more gas and fuel oil storage facilities near existing dual fuel plants and near any new dual fuel plants.

NE Wind in 2017 and Projected to 2030

ISO-NE has incorporated future plans of the NE states regarding onshore and offshore wind. See table 1 and URL for latest summary of capacity and electricity generation fed to grid in 2017 and by 2030.

NOTE: In this article it is assumed all of the state plans are implemented by 2030

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2018/12/clg_meeting_...

*Maine has installed 923 MW, but about 23 MW is connected to Canadian grid, i.e., not “seen” by ISO-NE

NE PV Solar in 2017 and Projected to 2030

ISO-NE has incorporated future plans of the NE states regarding “before and after the meter” PV solar. See table 2 and URLs for latest summary of capacity and electricity generation fed to grid in 2017 and by 2030. The ISO-NE data were extrapolated to 2030.

NOTE: In this article it is assumed all of the state plans are implemented by 2030.

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2018/02/02272018_pr_...

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2018/12/clg_meeting_...

NE Grid Load in 2017, and Projections for 2026 and 2030

Table 3 shows the:

- ISO-NE estimates for 2026

- Extrapolated estimates for 2030

With high levels of variable, intermittent wind and solar (wind and sun dependent), adequate flexible gas turbine capacity, with adequate gas/oil supply, has to be ready to run (kept in good repair), staffed and fueled for peaking, filling in and balancing to ensure electricity consumption by users exactly matches the electricity supplied to the grid, 24/7/365, regardless of whether there is adequate wind and/or sun.

Hour-By-Hour Analyses of Fuel Requirements for Electricity Generation

Synapse did not perform an hour-by-hour analysis to determine the hourly fuel requirements for:

- Generating electricity for general uses

- Generating electricity for heating buildings with normal fuels and heat pumps

- Operating vehicles with normal fuels and with electricity

- When the sum of wind and solar is minimal, i.e., near zero, for several days in a row, such as with snow and ice on the solar panels.

The Synapse report does not mention:

- ISO-NE has already performed an analysis of the projected NE grid load

- ISO-NE does not, at this time, know how fast electric vehicles and heat pumps will be deployed in future years.

- ISO-NE has observed, over the years, the actual build-outs of RE and energy efficiency usually are well short of and occur later than the avowed intentions of states. Synapse assumes all avowed intentions will be implemented and on time.

- ISO-NE states: "If rapid EV or electric heating adoption emerges, the impacts may need to be considered in the ISO’s outlook for the region’s demand and energy.

- ISO-NE plans to start working with regional stakeholders to quantify the impact of the states’ anti-fossil policies on long-term demand so that ISO-NE can understand their potential effects on the power system and reflect these in future Regional System Plans.

NOTE:It is likely, on an hour-to-hour basis, wind and solar could be minimal, i.e., near zero, at any time during the year, including during cold spells in winter, such as the severe, extended, cold spell of 2016/2017, which could have been made worse with snow and ice on the PV panels. That means a full complement of other energy sources must be available (ready to run, kept in good repair, staffed and fueled) at any time during the year, i.e., 24/7/365, to serve the NE electricity demand. Wind and solar must not be counted due to a lack of reliability. Reliability of supply, 24/7/365, must come before everything. How could people get to work with their EVs, if they had to rely on unreliable sources, such as wind and solar, which are near zero almost every morning?

NOTE: The Connecticut legislature voted to accept zero-carbon bids of two nuclear power plants, Millstone and Seabrook, and rejected bids of 6 wind entities in Maine.

https://nawindpower.com/ct-selects-bids-for-offshore-wind-solar-and...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/all-six-maine-onshore-w...

Projected Electricity Generation for 2026 and 2030

Table 3 shows the generation, GWh, of each energy source for 2017, 2026, and 2030, if planned wind, solar and other build-outs were implemented. Below are explanatory comments on table 3:

- The first two columns are from ISO-NE historic data 

- Coal generation is assumed at zero for 2026 and 2030

- Standard, low efficiency, gas/oil plants should be closed down and replaced with up to 60% efficient, dual fuel, gas turbine plants. The same quantity of fuel would generate more electricity.

- Gas generation is assumed to slightly increase as older, less efficient gas turbine plants are replaced with up to 60% efficient, dual fuel, gas turbine plants.

- Nuclear generation is assumed to decrease in 2026 and 2030, due to plants closing down.

- Hydro generation is assumed to slightly increase due to ongoing plants efficiency improvements

- Solar generation, ATM, is assumed to increase in accordance with ISO-NE projections

- Wind generation is assumed to increase in accordance with projects listed with ISO-NE

- Geo, Muni refuse, Biomass, Landfill gas generation are assumed about unchanged for 2026 and 2030

- Methane, farm and other generation is assumed to slightly increase for 2026 and 2030

- Net external ties is assumed to slightly increase in 2026 and 2030

- Pumping loss is assumed unchanged for 2026 and 2030. Pumping loss = electricity required for pumping to upper reservoir - electricity generated by flow from upper to lower reservoir. The round trip pumping loss, high voltage AC-to-high voltage AC, is about 25 to 30%.

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2018/02/02272018_pr_...

ISO-NE Projected NE Consumption

The consumption for 2030 was assumed by extrapolation. See table 3A

The solar, BTM, for 2030 was assumed by extrapolation.

The "Difference" between “Net” at bottom of table 3 and “Consumption, with HP and EV” in table 3A is 11456 GWh for 2026 and 13736 GWh for 2030. These small differences are not material.

There cannot be any significant reduction in annual gas supply, because all gas supply will be needed to serve future electricity demand due to:

- Wind and solar varying from year to year (more or less wind and sun), as happens in Germany and Denmark

- Hydro varying from year to year (more or less rain/snow), as happens during drought periods

- Some wind, solar and energy efficiency measures not fully implemented, or not at all, or at a later date. 

NOTE: An hour-by-hour study of fuel and gas consumption would reveal the need for additional fuel oil and gas storage near gas turbine plants and near other users during high stress events, such as the long cold spell of 2016/2017.

Click on 2018 Forecast Data, 2018 - 2027

https://www.iso-ne.com/system-planning/system-forecasting/load-fore...

See page 20 of URL

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2018/02/02272018_pr_...

Energy Efficiency

The US has had near-constant electricity generation at about 4000 TWh/y, with average real GDP growth at about 2%/y, for about 10 years. That 2% was due to 1) improvements in electricity generation and 2) improvements to subsequent consumption, i.e., improved energy efficiency.

New England likely is as virtuous as the US. It likely also had about a 2% improvement. Any claim made by the six NE states in excess of 1.5 - 2% for improved EE would be highly suspect, as that would leave less than 0 - 0.5% for generation improvements. See table 3A and page 20 of URL.

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2018/02/02272018_pr_...

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2018/04/eef2018_fina...

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2018/04/a2_new_engla...

Estimated Heat Pump and Electric Vehicle Implementation

Table 4 shows the estimated number of heat pumps installed (about 750000 in 2026), and estimated EVs on the road (about 1.35 million in 2026), and the estimated electricity fed to grid, kWh, for each HP and EV.

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2018/02/02272018_pr_...

Caveat Regarding Enthusiastic Energy Efficiency Calculations

- The calculations performed by state entities regarding energy efficiency savings are not uniform from state to state

- The estimates by state entities likely are on the high side to "prove" to voters and legislators the effectiveness of EE programs to justify perpetuating them. See Note

- It is somewhat like having the fox determining the combination of the lock on the chicken coop.

- ISO-NE relying on those EE calculations regarding grid planning may be unwise, i.e., how good are these EE numbers provided by the states? 

http://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/New-Englands-Shri...

NOTE: Efficiency Vermont was claiming annual energy cost savings for heat pumps that were FOUR TO NINE times greater than in the real world, as proven by a VT-DPS sponsored survey of existing HP installations.

- Savings per Efficiency Vermont, $865 - $1842/y

- Savings per the VT-DPS survey about $200/HP/y.

- Those savings were reported by Efficiency Vermont in its annual reports to get its budgets approved and perpetuate its programs,

See URLs and Appendix

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fact-checking-regarding...

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2018/02/02272018_pr_...

APPENDIX 1

Increased Renewables per Capita Leads to Higher Household Electric Rates

The below graph shows countries with high levels of wind, solar, etc., also have high levels of household electric rates.

Politicians and bureaucrats find ways to place the cost burden of renewables (such as subsidies, grants, taxes, fees and surcharges) mostly on households, but give a free pass to the industrial and commercial sectors low for "competitive reasons"

Industry and commerce are vastly better organized and have vastly more political clout, and are much less easily swayed/bamboozled/conned than households. 

APPENDIX 2

"Fossil fuels are essential for making wind turbines, as Robert Wilson explains in Can You Make a Wind Turbine Without Fossil Fuels?"

"Oil is used from start to finish; from mining to crushing ore and smelting it; to delivery to the supply chain fabrication plants for the 8,000 parts in a turbine; to the final delivery to the site and erection.

Cement trucks drive to the delivery site over roads built by diesel powered road equipment.

The roads are paved with asphalt made from refinery tar.

Fossil-made cement and steel rebar is required for the wind turbine foundations.

Diesel trucks haul the components of the turbine to the installation place, and diesel cranes lift the turbine sections and 8,000 parts upward.

There are no electric blast furnaces, only fossil fueled ones to make cement and most steel.

There are no electric mining trucks, electric long haul trucks to deliver the 8,000 parts made all over the world, nor electric cement trucks, electric cranes, etc.

That means, even if a wind turbine could generate enough energy to replicate itself, it wouldn’t matter, the A-to-Z process would need to be electrified."

"Not only would windmills have to generate enough power to reproduce themselves, but they have to make enough power above and beyond that to fuel the rest of civilization.

Think of the energy to make the cement and steel of a 300-foot tower with three 150-foot rotor blades sweeping an acre of air at 150 miles per hour. 

The turbine housing alone weighs over 56 tons, the blade assembly 36 tons, and the whole tower assembly over 163 tons. 

Florida Power & Light says a typical turbine site is a 42 by 42 foot area with a 30-foot hole filled with tons of steel rebar-reinforced concrete; about 1,250 tons of foundation to hold the 300-foot tower in place (per Rosenbloom)."

APPENDIX 3

Wind and Solar Conditions in New England 

New England has highly variable weather and low-medium quality wind and solar conditions. See NREL wind map and NREL solar map.

https://www.nrel.gov/gis/images/100m_wind/awstwspd100onoff3-1.jpg

https://www.nrel.gov/gis/images/solar/national_photovoltaic_2009-01...

Wind:

- Wind electricity is zero about 30% of the hours of the year (it takes a wind speed of about 7 mph to start the rotors)

- Wind is minimal most early mornings and most late afternoons/early evenings (peak demand hours), especially during summer

- Wind often is minimal 5 - 7 days in a row in summer and winter, as proven by ISO-NE real-time generation data.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/daily-shifting-of-wind-...

- About 60% is generated at night, when demand is much less than during the late afternoons/early evenings

- About 60% is generated in winter.

- During winter, the best wind month is up to 2.5 times the worst summer month

- New England has the lowest capacity factor (about 0.262) of any US region, except the US South. See URL.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=20112

Solar:

- Solar electricity is strictly a midday affair.

- It is zero about 65% of the hours of the year, mostly at night.

- It often is minimal 5 - 7 days in a row in summer and in winter, as proven by ISO-NE real-time generation data.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/daily-shifting-of-wind-...

- It is minimal early mornings and late afternoons/early evenings

- It is minimal much of the winter months

- It is minimal for several days with snow and ice on most of the panels.

- It varies with variable cloudiness, which would excessively disturb distribution grids with many solar systems, as happens in southern California and southern Germany on a daily basis. Utilities use batteries to stabilize their grids.

- During summer, the best solar month is up to 4 times the worst winter month; that ratio is 6 in Germany.

- New England has the lowest capacity factor (about 0.145, under ideal conditions) of any region in the US, except some parts of the US Northwest.

NOTE: Even if the NE grid had large capacity connections with Canada and New York, any major NE wind lull and any major NE snowfall likely would affect the entire US northeast, i.e., relying on neighboring grids to "help-out" likely would not be prudent strategy.

Wind Plus Solar:

ISO-NE publishes the minute-by-minute outputs off various energy sources contributing their electricity to the grid.

All one has to do is add the wind and solar and one comes rapidly to the conclusion both are minimal many hours of the year, at any time during the year.

- Wind plus solar production could be minimal for 5 - 7 days in summer and in winter, especially with snow and ice on most of the panels, as frequently happens during December, January and February, as proven by ISO-NE real-time generation data.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/daily-shifting-of-wind-...

If we were to rely on wind and solar for most of our electricity, massive energy storage systems (a few hundred GWh-scale for Vermont, multiple TWh-scale for NE) would be required to cover multi-day wind lulls, multi-day overcast/snowy periods, and seasonal variations. See URLs.

Wind and solar cannot ever be expected to charge New England’s EVs, so people can get to work the next day, unless backed up by several TWh of storage, because wind/solar lulls can occur for 5 - 7 days in a row, in summer and in winter. BTW, the turnkey capital cost of one TWH of storage (delivered as AC to the grid) is about $400 billion.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-energy-l...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-example-of-elec...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/seasonal-pumped-hydro-s...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/electricity-storage-to-...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/pumped-storage-hydro-in...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-hype-ver...

APPENDIX 4

High Levels of Wind and Solar

High levels of wind and solar, say 60% of NE grid annual load (the rest supplied by other sources), could not ever stand on their own, without the NE grid having:

- Much more robust connections to nearby grids (Canada, New York State), plus

- Gas turbine plants and reservoir/run-of-river hydro plants that could quickly vary their outputs to compensate for the quickly varying outputs of wind and solar, including very lowoutputs of wind and solar, which occur at random, at least 30% of the hours of the year, according to minute-by-minute generation data posted by ISO-NE.

If high levels of wind and solar were built out after a few decades, and the gas turbine, nuclear, coal and oil plants were closed down (according to RE proponent wishes), and with existing connections to nearby grids, and with existing reservoir/run-of-river hydro plants, and with existing other sources, the NE grid would require 6 - 8 TWh of storage to cover 5 to 7 day wind/solar lulls, which occur at random, and to cover seasonal variations (storing wind when it is more plentiful during fall, winter and spring, and when solar is more plentiful in summer, so more of their electricity would be available in summer when wind usually is at very low levels). See URLs.

That storage would need to have a minimal level at all times (about 10 days of demand coverage), to cover multi-day, scheduled and unscheduled equipment and system outages and unusual multi-day weather events, such as a big snow fall covering the solar panels andminimal wind.

- One TWh of storage costs about $400 billion, at $400/kWh, or $100 billion at a Holy Grail $100/kWh.

- Any electricity passing through storage has about a 20% loss, on a high voltage AC-to-high voltage AC basis, to be made up by additional wind, solar and other generation.

- Any electricity fed to EVs and plug-in hybrids has about a 20% charging and resting loss, from wall meter to “in battery”, as indicated by the vehicle meter, to be made up by additional wind, solar, and other generation. See URLs.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/tesla-model-3-long-term...

 http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/daily-shifting-of-wind-...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/new-england-will-need-t...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-example-of-elec...;

APPENDIX 5

Hydro-Quebec Electricity Generation and Purchases: Google this URL for the 2017 facts. The H-Q electricity supply is an order of magnitude cleaner than the Vermont supply.
http://www.hydroquebec.com/sustainable-development/energy-environme...

NOTE: Gentilly-2 nuclear generating station, plus three thermal generating stations (Tracy, La Citière and Cadillac) were shut down.

Hydro-Quebec Export Electricity: H-Q net exports were 34.4 TWh/y in 2017; provided 27% of H-Q net income, or $780 million, i.e., very profitable.

H-Q export revenue was $1,651 million in 2017, or 1641/34.4 = 4.8 c/kWh.

See page 24 of Annual Report URL.

This is for a mix of old and new contracts.

Revenue = 1641

Net profit = 780

Cost = 1641 - 780 = 861

Average cost of H-Q generation = 861/34.4 = 2.5 c/kWh

GMP buys H-Q electricity, at the Vermont border, for 5.549 c/kWh, under a recent contract. GMP buys at 5.549 c/kWh, per GMP spreadsheet titled “GMP Test Year Power Supply Costs filed as VPSB Docket No: Attachment D, Schedule 2, April 14, 2017”.

H-Q is eager to sell more of its surplus electricity to New England and New York.

That is at least 50% less than ridgeline wind and large-scale field-mounted solar, which are heavily subsidized to make their electricity appear to be less costly than reality. 

GMP sells to me at 19 c/kWh, per rate schedule. Consumers pricing for electricity is highly political. That is implemented by rate setting, taxes, fees, surcharges, etc., mostly on household electric bills, as in Denmark and Germany, etc. The rate setting is influenced by protecting “RE policy objectives”, which include highly subsidized, expensive microgrids, islanding, batteries and net metered solar and heat pumps.

http://www.hydroquebec.com/sustainable-development/energy-environme...

http://news.hydroquebec.com/en/press-releases/1338/annual-report-2917/

http://www.hydroquebec.com/data/documents-donnees/pdf/annual-report...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/green-mountain-power-co...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/increased-canadian-hydr...

APPENDIX 6

The Vermont Heat Pump Promotion Troika

1) GMP: Kristin Carlson, GMP's vice president for strategic and external affairs, said in an email that the utility has now installed 1,125 heat pumps.

-GMP arranges for the installation with an Efficiency Vermont-approved contractor.

- The contractor chooses the heat pump brand and model; brands include Daikin, Fujitsu, and Mitsubishi, with outputs ranging from 9,000 Btu/h to 18,000 Btu/h.

- GMP loan at an interest rate is 10.74%/y. That appears to be a usury rate!

- GMP says that payments will range from $49 to $81 per month, depending on the model of heat pump that's installed.

- Maintenance is included; no mention of parts or outage service calls

- That doesn't include the electricity required to run the unit.

- Should a homeowner sell the house before the loan is repaid, GMP says it can offer a buy-out price for the heat pump, or the new owner could pick up the payments.

http://www.greenbuildingadvisor.com/blogs/dept/green-building-news/...

Annual Cost Summary

* Amortize $10,000 back-up system at 5% for 20 y

^ GMP loan, average cost = (49 + 81)/2 x 12 = $780/y, includes (unspecified) ccHP maintenance. Does that include ccHP outage calls?

NOTE: With a carbon tax on fuel oil the scale can be tipped in favor of ccHPs.

2) Efficiency Vermont: According to a fact sheet at Efficiency Vermont, a homeowner would save:

- $1,842/y by shifting 80% of the heating load away from electric resistance heat to a cold-climate heat pump.

- Propane users would save $1,268/y.

- Fuel oil users would save $865/y.

- The “fact sheet” (fiction sheet?) is no longer accessible!
http://www.greenbuildingadvisor.com/blogs/dept/green-building-news/...

3) VPIRG, an RE Lobby: VPIRG, a booster of renewable energy, mostly financed by Vermont RE businesses, estimated the annual savings of a heat pump at $1000 to $1500 on a $3000 household heating bill. It appears, VPIRG grabbed a number out of the air, because it looked good.