WORLD’s LARGEST OFFSHORE WIND SYSTEM DEVELOPER ABANDONS TWO MAJOR US PROJECTS AS WIND BUST CONTINUES

Oersted Recorded Impairment Charges Well Above Prior Forecasts 

Oersted A/S announced, "US offshore wind projects have experienced further negative developments from adverse impacts relating to supply chains, increased interest rates, and the lack of an OREC adjustment (Offshore Renewable Energy Certificates) for Sunrise Wind, and the Ocean Wind 1 and 2 projects”.”

"OREC adjustment" involves being awarded “bonus” subsidies of Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, IRA.

Oersted wants Biden to ignore/waive the domestic-content requirements of IRA, so Europe would receive “OREC bonus” subsidies to create European jobs, and to build European factories, ports, cranes, specialized ships, etc., for manufacturing and erecting wind turbines to increase EU wind turbine exports to the US, UK, etc., for decades.

Europe is not interested in setting up the US as an offshore wind competitor.

Europe, lacking sufficient energy and other resources, has a self-serving goal to move the US, rich in energy and other resources, into the expensive wind/solar/battery/EV blackhole, using IPCC/WEF to scare-monger about global warming.

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A 500-ft long, specialized ship, standing on the sea floor, elevated 20 ft above water, erecting wind turbines

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Oersted said, "Total impairments recognized in the interim financial report for the first nine months of 2023 amount to DKK 28.4 billion ($4 billion), and the majority of these (DKK 19.9 billion) relate to Ocean Wind 1, a New Jersey State project."

This amount is much larger than the previously announced impairment in August on its US portfolio of up to DKK 16 billion ($2.6 billion). 

"This is a consequence of additional supplier delays further impacting the project schedule and leading to an additional significant project delay," the company said. 

Mads Nipper, chief executive, said he was "extremely disappointed to announce that we are ceasing the development of Ocean Wind 1 (1100 MW installed capacity) and Ocean Wind 2 (1148 MW installed capacity)," adding, "The significant adverse developments from supply chain challenges, leading to delays in the project schedule, and rising interest rates have led us to this decision, and we will now assess the best way to preserve shareholder value while we cease development of the projects." 

Shares of Oersted crashed as much as 22%, to DDK 279.4, to lows not seen in six years. 

The shares reached a peak of almost DDK 1400 in December 2020, more than 1 year before the Ukraine events, which intensified in February 2022

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In August, Nipper warned: "The situation in US offshore wind is severe." Weeks later, he told Bloomberg: "We are still upholding a real option to walk away."

The Biden administration has touted offshore wind systems as an essential component of decarbonizing America's grid.

Under the Inflation Reduction Act, Oersted has received upwards of 30% tax credits, plus 5y-depreciation of the project, plus deducting interest on borrowed money, plus production tax credit, plus "OREC bonus benefits", if qualified.

However, even more subsidies are needed as a financial crisis is brewing in the offshore wind industry, located mainly in the EU and China

Additional Financing by New Jersey Taxpayers

Under normal circumstances, Ocean Wind 1 and 2 would have a profit for most of the 20 years of its lifetime, on which it would have to pay federal and state income taxes.

Democrats, without a single Republican vote, exempted Oersted from state income taxes for the 20-y life of the two projects, a gift of about $1.0 billion.

In return, Oersted pledged to invest $300 million in onshore pre-assembly/staging facilities for the construction of various offshore wind projects on the Delaware River

The NJ Economic Development Authority, helped out by issuing $160 million in municipal bonds, free from federal and state taxes, which mostly benefits millionaires looking for tax shelters

Governor Murphy, etc., is upset about the project cancellations and the lack Oersted's pledged $300 million of the at least $500 million pre-assembly/staging facility. Those relatively low-tech jobs will stay in Denmark, etc.

As luck would have it, Murphy had recently increased, by executive order, the NJ offshore wind goal to 11,000 MW by 2040, up almost 50%, to show his extra seriousness about being green. 

Siemens Energy, A German Company

Last week, Siemens Energy in Germany crashed after the company warned its wind turbine business is grappling with quality  and maintenance issues of onshore and offshore wind systems, plus offshore ramp-up challenges.

 

Siemens Energy Shares Crash 37% As Renewable Bust Sparks 'Green Panic

The Siemens shares peaked in January 2021, more than a year before the Ukraine events

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/siemens-energy-shares-...

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Siemens/ Gamesa scraps plans to build blades for offshore wind turbines on Virginia’s coast

https://apnews.com/article/offshore-wind-virginia-factory-siemens-g...

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MORE CANCELLATIONS ARE COMING

New York State had signed contracts with EU big wind companies for four offshore wind projects

Sometime later, the companies were trying to coerce an additional $25.35 billion (per Wind Watch) from New York ratepayers and taxpayers over at least 20 years, because they had bid at lower prices than they should have.

New York State denied the request on October 12, 2023; “a deal is a deal”, said the Commissioner 

 

Owners want a return on investment of at least 10%/y, if bank loans for risky projects are 6.5%/y, and project cost inflation and uncertainties are high 

The about 3.5% is a minimum for all the years of hassles of designing, building, erecting, and paperwork of a project

The project prices, with no subsidies, would be about two times the agreed contract price, paid by Utilities to owners. That means, the effect of subsidies reduced the contract price by 50%.

All contractors had bid too low. When they realized there would be huge losses, they asked for higher contract prices.

It looks like the contract prices will need to be at least $150/MWh, for contractors to make money.

Those contract prices would be at least 60% higher than in 2021

Oersted, Denmark, Sunrise wind, contract price $110.37/MWh, contractor needs $139.99/MWh, a 27% increase

Equinor, Norway, Empire 1 wind, contract price $118.38/MWh, contractor needs $159.64/MWh, a 35% increase

Equinor, Norway, Empire 2 wind, contract price $107.50/MWh, contractor needs $177.84/MWh, a 66% increase

Equinor, Norway, Beacon Wind, contract price $118.00/MWh, contractor needs $190.82/MWh, a 62% increase

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/liars-lies-exposed-as-wind-electricity-price-increases-by-66-wake

Four Cancelled Projects

Empire Wind 2, 1260 MW, near Long- Island; 1404 MW, Attentive Energy One; 1314 MW, "Community" Offshore Wind; 1414 MW, Excelsior Wind

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/equinor-bp-cancel-contract-...

Offshore Cancellations in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island

BP (BP.L) and Oersted (ORSTED.CO) have announced hefty writedowns , and US offshore project cancellations, in recent days, in the face of high inflation, high interest rates, and lack of the timely availability of specialized ships.

In Rhode Island, in March 2023, a procurement for offshore wind drew only one bidder – an 884 MW proposal from Eversource and Ørsted.

In August, Ørsted CEO Mads Nipper warned the company could walk away from unprofitable projects in the US amid the turbulence in pricing and supply chain issues.

Avangrid, a Spanish company, in September 2022, walked away from its 804 MW Park City wind project, planned for off the coast of Martha’s Vineyard. It was no longer feasible at the 2019 contract price agreed with Connecticut.

At the time, the company said, inflation, higher interest rates and supply chain issues made the agreed price of $79.83 per MWh unprofitable.

In July 2023, Avangrid also walked away from its 1200 MW Commonwealth Wind project for Massachusetts.

The two projects became so unprofitable, it made better financial sense for Avangrid to pay $48, Massachusetts + $16, Connecticut = $64 million in walk-away penalties, rather than face much higher costs for building the project, with no prospect of a profit. 

SHELL: LONDON, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Shell's CFO said on Thursday, the firm had abandoned a power purchase agreement (PPA), at contract price of $76.73/MWh, for the planned 2400 MW South Coast offshore wind project, off the coast of Massachusetts, agreeing to pay a $60 million walk-away penalty, rather than face much higher costs for building the project, with no prospect of a profit. 

https://ctexaminer.com/2023/10/03/avangrid-cancels-park-city-wind-c...

Connecticut's New London Pier; a Hub for Pre-Assembly/Staging Construction

https://revolution-wind.com/state-pier#:~:text=As%20a%20staging%20a....

New London Pier will be a hub for pre-assembly/staging of construction of offshore wind projects.

Launched in 2020, the original cost was estimated at $93 million, with $75 million from "private sources"

That estimate turned out to be very much "off the mark", largely because existing concrete piers and deteriorating woodpile foundations had to be removed

At present, the cost has become $309 million, and counting

Sources of Funds, thus far:

Private sources, about $100 million, includes Ørsted and Eversource, $77.5 million

Misc. Connecticut state funds, from taxpayers, $89 million

Connecticut Bond Commission, ultimately paid by taxpayers, $50 million

Connecticut Port Authority municipal bond Issuances, ultimately paid by taxpayers $63 million

US Dept. of Transportation, from taxpayers $7 million

Total, $309 million

Recently, the first barge was loaded with 3 blades, a nacelle (the Greyhound-bus-size box at the top), and 4 tower sections for erecting one wind turbine of the South Fork Wind project  

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A 30 MW, 5 units @ 6 MW, “demonstration project”, costing $300 million, off Block Island, $10 million/installed MW

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Opposition to Wind Turbines in New Jersey

The cancelled Ocean Wind 1 and 2 projects were extremely unpopular in New Jersey, prompting widespread protests and aggressive congressional opposition, led by Jersey Shore lawmakers Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ) and Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ).

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/11/02/foreign-company-cance...

Local commercial and recreational fishing industry professionals fear the wind turbine maritime leases would:

1) prevent them from making a living,

2) kill off thriving fisheries, and

3) destroy century-old traditions along the Shore.

“The commercial fishing industry is extremely upset with the visual observations of dead whales floating at sea,” Brick Wenzel, Point Pleasant Beach.

He is New Jersey’s fishing industry liaison, and a longtime commercial fisherman.

He told Breitbart News in March. “One vessel reported, they had seen 3 different whales in one trip.

Another had parts of a whale come up in their net.

Most of the captains are generational fishermen, and are in their 60s — no one has heard of, or seen anything like the carnage  of whales"

The federal government has documented 66 whales stranded, including 10 in New Jersey, along the Atlantic Coast, up till October 2023

New Jersey has documented another 45 dolphins washing ashore in 2023

“The cancellation of the projects is a very, very big deal, and in my mind a good day for fishermen, for our tourism and our coasts, for whales and dolphins and life in the ocean, a good day for national security, and finally, a good day for our taxpayers and ratepayers,” said Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ).

Sonic Boom, Sub-Bottom Profiling of Sea Floors for Offshore Turbine Foundations

Environmentalists noted a concurrent increase in the deaths of marine mammals, particularly whales and dolphins, as Oersted's subcontractors were using sonar mapping for foundations. Various sound sources are used including Boomers and Sparkers to achieve deep signal penetration.

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After that comes the driving of piles about 100 ft (30 m) into bedrock, to support the weight, and resist over-turning forces of each 850-ft tall wind turbine. 

The sound waves travel at about 1500 m/sec in water vs about 340 m/s in air

Sounds, measured in decibels, dBs, are referenced to 20 microPascal in air, and 1 microPa in water

Sounds, dBs, in air are lower than in water 

The sounds of boomers and sparklers are in excess of 200 dB

The frequencies of boomers vary from 300 Hz (cycles per second) to 6000 Hz

The frequencies of sparkers vary from 40 Hz, to 1500 Hz

The sound of a sparker, at 40 Hz and 222 dB, a low, powerful sound, has a lot of energy that penetrates deeply into rock strata of the ocean floor. See Note and table

Jet aircraft noise, about 140 dB, causes pain and damage to unprotected human ears at 50 meters away

Each 10 dB doubles the sound pressure level, SPL, of a sound.

For example, the 140 dB of a jet engine at 50 m away has 10 x 10 x 10 = 1000 times the SPL of the 110 dB of a chainsaw at 1 m away  

NOTE: The sounds of sparkers in water is 26 dB greater, due to lower reference pressure, and 36 dB greater due to higher impedance of water compared to air.

Thus, a sparker dB of 222 in water, mathematically becomes 160 dB in air, which has an SPL about 1000 times greater than the 130 dB sound that causes pain in humans. See below table

https://www.arc.id.au/SoundLevels.html

Damage to Whales, Porpoises, Dolphins

A sparker may damage/destroy the echo-locating, sonar systems of whales, dolphins, etc., which significantly reduce their communication, navigational and food-finding abilities. 
They become disoriented, get hit by ships, cannot find food, cannot find their mates, and wash onto shores

https://tos.org/oceanography/article/acoustic-impacts-of-offshore-w...

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The dB values in air are referenced to 20 microPa

The dB values in water are referenced to 1 microPa

The energy of a sound wave, SPL, in dB = 10 log (Pa^2/Pa ref^2) = 20 log (Pa/Pa ref.)

Physical damage in air occurs at a measured Pa = 60, equivalent to 130 dB

In the image:

The circle has a measured diameter of 50 km (30 miles)

The dark-red band sounds, near the pile driver, are 170 dB

The green band sounds are 130 to 140 dB, 25 km away

Sound attenuation from 170 dB to 140 dB is 30 dB, after 25 km of travel in about 16 seconds

Each 10 MW wind turbine foundation requires a huge mono-pile

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A Guide to Sub-Bottom Profiling

https://www.aaetechnologiesgroup.com/news/guide-to-sub-bottom-profi...

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Bubble Curtains Protect Porpoises, Dolphins and Whales from Loud Sonic Mapping

BOEM, NOAA, etc., likely knew about the bubble curtains that minimize loud noises from solar mapping and pile driving, because those systems are used to protect whales, porpoises and dolphins in the Baltic Sea and North Sea, already for about 10 years.

Why was this not used before so many whales and dolphins were killed on the US East Coast, where 72 whales died since December 2022

The whales know what their nemesis is doing to their population

https://www.wind-watch.org/news/2023/11/08/72-whales-have-died-on-t...

BOEM, NOAA, etc., decided not to require them, because the bubble systems and suitable ships likely were not available in a timely manner, plus it would increase costs. 

BOEM, NOAA, etc., eager not to be accused of slowing down Biden's offshore wind projects, claimed, they ‘found no evidence linking sonar mapping detonations and the surge in whale and dolphin deaths”.

BOEM, NOAA, etc., enlisted the help of the lapdog US Media to spread the word.

However, Germany, etc., found the evidence more than 10 years ago, and did something about it.

In Germany, there is a saying: "Lügen haben kurze Beine", or "Lies have short legs".

New Jersey residents organized “Save the Whales” rallies, in defiance of those "official claims”.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20231106-the-big-bubble-curtains...

https://e360.yale.edu/digest/bubble_curtains_proposed_to_protect_wh...

This article is more than 12 years old

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/aug/09/german-bubble-w...

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Above is an image of pile driving in the Baltic Sea. The specialized ships are about 400 ft long

Monopiles for 10 MW wind turbines are about 10 meter in diameter, about 160 meter tall, from mudline to connection to mast.

The mast is about 100 meters tall 

Failure to use bubble curtains in waters off New England and off the New York/North Carolina shore likely killed a lot of whales and porpoises.

Below is a close-up image of bubble wall

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APPENDIX 1

 

Floating Offshore Wind Systems in the Impoverished State of Maine

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/floating-offshore-wind...

 

World Offshore Wind Capacity Placed on Operation in 2021

 

During 2021, worldwide offshore wind capacity placed in operation was 17,398 MW, of which China 13,790 MW, and the rest of the world 3,608 MW, of which UK 1,855 MW; Vietnam 643 MW; Denmark 604 MW; Netherlands 402 MW; Taiwan 109 MW

Of the 17,398 MW, just 57.1 MW was floating, about 1/3%

At end of 2021, 50,623 MW was in operation, of which just 123.4 MW was floating, about 1/4%

https://www.energy.gov/eere/wind/articles/offshore-wind-market-repo...

 

Despite the meager floating offshore MW in the world, pro-wind politicians, bureaucrats, etc., aided and abetted by the lapdog Main Media and "academia/think tanks", in the impoverished State of Maine, continue to fantasize about building 3,000 MW of 850-ft-tall floating offshore wind turbines by 2040!!

 

Maine government bureaucrats, etc., in a world of their own climate-fighting fantasies, want to have about 3,000 MW of floating wind turbines by 2040; a most expensive, totally unrealistic goal, that would further impoverish the already-poor State of Maine for many decades.

 

Those bureaucrats, etc., would help fatten the lucrative, 20-y, tax-shelters of mostly out-of-state, multi-millionaire, wind-subsidy chasers, who likely have minimal regard for:

 

1) Impacts on the environment and the fishing and tourist industries of Maine, and

2) Already-overstressed, over-taxed, over-regulated Maine ratepayers and taxpayers, who are trying to make ends meet in a near-zero, real-growth economy.

 

Those fishery-destroying, 850-ft-tall floaters, with 24/7/365 strobe lights, visible 30 miles from any shore, would cost at least $7,500/ installed kW, or at least $22.5 billion, if built in 2023 (more after 2023)

See below Norwegian floating offshore cost of $8,300/installed kW

 

Almost the entire supply of the Maine projects would be designed and made in Europe, then transported across the Atlantic Ocean, in specialized ships, also designed and made in Europe, then unloaded at the about $400-million Maine storage/pre-assembly/staging area, then barged to specialized erection ships, also designed and made in Europe, for erection of the floating turbines

 

About 300 Maine people would have pre-assembly/staging/erection jobs, during the erection phase

The other erection jobs would be by specialized European people, mostly on cranes and ships

About 100 Maine people would have long-term O&M jobs during the 20-y electricity production phase

 

The projects would produce electricity at about 40 c/kWh, no subsidies, at about 20 c/kWh, with subsidies, the wholesale price at which utilities would buy from Owners (higher prices after 2023)

https://www.maine.gov/governor/mills/news/governor-mills-signs-bill...

 

The Maine woke bureaucrats are falling over each other to prove their “greenness”, offering $millions of this and that for free, but all their primping and preening efforts has resulted in no floating offshore bids from European companies

 

The Maine people have much greater burdens to look forward to for the next 20 years, courtesy of the Governor Mills incompetent, woke bureaucracy that has infested the state government 

 

The Maine people need to finally wake up, and put an end to all the climate scare-mongering, which aims to subjugate and further impoverish them, by voting the entire Democrat woke cabal out and replace it with rational Republicans in 2024

The present course leads to financial disaster for the impoverished State of Maine and its people.

The purposely-kept-ignorant Maine people do not deserve such maltreatment

 

Floating Offshore Wind in Maine

 

Electricity Cost: Assume a $750 million, 100 MW project consists of foundations, wind turbines, cabling to shore, and installation at $7,500/kW.

 

Production 100 MW x 8766 h/y x 0.40, CF = 350,640,000 kWh/y

Amortize bank loan for $525 million, 70% of project, at 6.5%/y for 20 years, 13.396 c/kWh.

Owner return on $225 million, 30% of project, at 10%/y for 20 years, 7.431 c/kWh

Offshore O&M, about 30 miles out to sea, 8 c/kWh.

Supply chain, special ships, and ocean transport, 3 c/kWh

All other items, 4 c/kWh 

Total cost 13.396 + 7.431 + 8 + 3 + 4 = 35.827 c/kWh

Less 50% subsidies (ITC, 5-y depreciation, interest deduction on borrowed funds) 17.913 c/kWh

Owner sells to utility at 17.913 c/kWh

 

NOTE: If li-ion battery systems were contemplated, they would add 20 to 40 c/kWh to the cost of any electricity passing through them, during their about 15-y useful service lives! See Part 1 of URL
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital-costs-losses-and-aging

 

NOTE: The above prices compare with the average New England wholesale price of about 5 c/kWh, during the 2009 - 2022 period, 13 years, courtesy of:

 

Gas-fueled CCGT plants, with low-cost, low-CO2, very-low particulate/kWh

Nuclear plants, with low-cost, near-zero CO2, zero particulate/kWh

Hydro plants, with low-cost, near-zero-CO2, zero particulate/kWh

Cabling to Shore Plus $Billions for Additional Gridwork on Shore

 

A high voltage cable would be hanging from each unit, until it reaches bottom, say about 200 to 500 feet. 
The cables would need some type of flexible support system

There would be about 5 cables, each connected to sixty, 10 MW wind turbines, making landfall on the Maine shore, for connection to 5 substations (each having a 600 MW capacity, requiring several acres of equipment), then to connect to the New England high voltage grid. 

The onshore grid will need $billions for expansion/reinforcement to transmit electricity to load centers, mostly in southern New England.

 

Floating Offshore a Major Financial Burden on Maine People

 

Rich Norwegian people can afford to dabble in such expensive demonstration follies (See Appendix 2), but the over-taxed, over-regulated, impoverished Maine people would buckle under such a heavy burden, while trying to make ends meet in the near-zero, real-growth Maine economy.

Maine folks need lower energy bills, not higher energy bills.

 

APPENDIX 2

 

Floating Offshore Wind in Norway

 

Equinor, a Norwegian company, put in operation, 11 Hywind, floating offshore wind turbines, each 8 MW, for a total of 88 MW, in the North Sea. The wind turbines are supplied by Siemens, a German company

Production will be about 88 x 8766 x 0.5, claimed lifetime capacity factor = 385,704 MWh/y, which is about 35% of the electricity used by 2 nearby Norwegian oil rigs, which cost at least $1.0 billion each.

On an annual basis, the existing diesel and gas-turbine generators on the rigs, designed to provide 100% of the rigs electricity requirements, 24/7/365, will provide only 65%, i.e., the wind turbines have 100% back up.

The generators will counteract the up/down output of the wind turbines, on a less-than-minute-by-minute basis, 24/7/365

The generators will provide almost all the electricity during low-wind periods, and 100% during high-wind periods, when rotors are feathered and locked.

The capital cost of the entire project was about 8 billion Norwegian Kroner, or about $730 million, as of August 2023, when all 11 units were placed in operation, or $730 million/88 MW = $8,300/kW. See URL

That cost was much higher than the estimated 5 billion NOK in 2019, i.e., 60% higher

The project is located about 70 miles from Norway, which means minimal transport costs of the entire supply to the erection sites

 

https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/north-sea-europe/arti...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floating_wind_turbine

 

The project would produce electricity at about 42 c/kWh, no subsidies, at about 21 c/kWh, with 50% subsidies 

In Norway, all work associated with oil rigs is very expensive.

Three shifts of workers are on the rigs for 6 weeks, work 60 h/week, and get 6 weeks off with pay, and are paid well over $150,000/y, plus benefits.

 

Floating Offshore Wind in Maine

 

If such floating units were used in Maine, the production costs would be even higher in Maine, because of:

 

1) The additional cost of transport of almost the entire supply, including specialized ships and cranes, across the Atlantic Ocean, plus

2) The additional $300 to $500 million capital cost of any onshore facilities for storing/pre-assembly/staging/barging to erection sites

3) A high voltage cable would be hanging from each unit, until it reaches bottom, say about 200 to 500 feet. 

The cables would need some type of flexible support system
The cables would be combined into several cables to run horizontally to shore, for at least 25 to 30 miles, to several onshore substations, to the New England high voltage grid.

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APPENDIX 3

 

Offshore Wind

 

Most folks, seeing only part of the picture, write about wind energy issues that only partially cover the offshore wind situation, which caused major declines of the stock prices of Siemens, Oersted, etc., starting at the end of 2020; the smart money got out
All this well before the Ukraine events, which started in February 2022. See costs/kWh in below article

 

World’s Largest Offshore Wind System Developer Abandons Two Major US Projects as Wind/Solar Bust Continues 
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/world-s-largest-offsho...

 

US/UK Governments Offshore Wind Goals

1) 30,000 MW of offshore by 2030, by the cabal of climate extremists in the US government 
2) 36,000 MW of offshore by 2030, and 40,000 MW by 2040, by the disconnected-from-markets UK government

 

Those US/UK goals were physically unachievable, even if there were abundant, low-cost financing, and low inflation, and low-cost energy, materials, labor, and a robust, smooth-running supply chain, to place in service about 9500 MW of offshore during each of the next 7 years, from start 2024 to end 2030, which has never been done before in such a short time. See article
 
US/UK 66,000 MW OF OFFSHORE WIND BY 2030; AN EXPENSIVE FANTASY  
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biden-30-000-mw-of-off...

 

NOTE: During an interview, a commentator was reported to say” “renewables are not always reliable” 
That shows the types of ignorami driving the bus
The commentator should have said: Wind and solar are never, ever reliable 

US Offshore Wind Electricity Production and Cost

 

Electricity production about 30,000 MW x 8766 h/y x 0.40, lifetime capacity factor = 105,192,000 MWh, or 105.2 TWh. The production would be about 100 x 105.2/4000 = 2.63% of the annual electricity loaded onto US grids.

 

Electricity Cost, c/kWh: Assume a $550 million, 100 MW project consists of foundations, wind turbines, cabling to shore, and installation, at $5,500/kW.

 

Production 100 MW x 8766 h/y x 0.40, CF = 350,640,000 kWh/y

Amortize bank loan for $385 million, 70% of project, at 6.5%/y for 20 y, 9.824 c/kWh.

Owner return on $165 million, 30% of project, at 10%/y for 20 y, 5.449 c/kWh

Offshore O&M, about 30 miles out to sea, 8 c/kWh.

Supply chain, special ships, ocean transport, 3 c/kWh

All other items, 4 c/kWh 

Total cost 9.824 + 5.449 + 8 + 3 + 4 = 30.273 c/kWh

Less 50% subsidies (ITC, 5-y depreciation, interest deduction on borrowed funds) 15.137 c/kWh

Owner sells to utility at 15.137 c/kWh; developers in NY state, etc., want much more. See Above.

 

Not included: At a future 30% wind/solar on the grid:   

Cost of onshore grid expansion/reinforcement, about 2 c/kWh

Cost of a fleet of plants for counteracting/balancing, 24/7/365, about 2.0 c/kWh

In the UK, in 2020, it was 1.9 c/kWh at 28% wind/solar loaded onto the grid

Cost of curtailments, 2.0 c/kWh

Cost of decommissioning, i.e., disassembly at sea, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites

 

APPENDIX 4

Levelized Cost of Energy Deceptions, by US-EIA, et al.

Most people have no idea wind and solar systems need grid expansion/reinforcement and expensive support systems to even exist on the grid.

With increased annual W/S electricity percent on the grid, increased grid investments are needed, plus greater counteracting plant capacity, MW, especially when it is windy and sunny around noon-time.

Increased counteracting of the variable W/S output, places an increased burden on the grid’s other generators, causing them to operate in an inefficient manner (more Btu/kWh, more CO2/kWh), which adds more cost/kWh to the offshore wind electricity cost of about 16 c/kWh, after 50% subsidies

The various cost/kWh adders start with annual W/S electricity at about 8% on the grid.

The adders become exponentially greater, with increased annual W/S electricity percent on the grid

 

The US-EIA, Lazard, Bloomberg, etc., and their phony LCOE "analyses", are deliberately understating the cost of wind, solar and battery systems

Their LCOE “analyses” of W/S/B systems purposely exclude major LCOE items.

Their deceptions reinforced the popular delusion, W/S are competitive with fossil fuels, which is far from reality.

The excluded LCOE items are shifted to taxpayers, ratepayers, and added to government debts.

W/S would not exist without at least 50% subsidies

W/S output could not be physically fed into the grid, without items 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. See list.

 

1) Subsidies equivalent to about 50% of project lifetime owning and operations cost,

2) Grid extension/reinforcement to connect remote W/S systems to load centers

3) A fleet of quick-reacting power plants to counteract the variable W/S output, on a less-than-minute-by-minute basis, 24/7/365 

4) A fleet of power plants to provide electricity during low-W/S periods, and 100% during high-W/S periods, when rotors are feathered and locked,

5) Output curtailments to prevent overloading the grid, i.e., paying owners for not producing what they could have produced

6) Hazardous waste disposal of wind turbines, solar panels and batteries. See image.

.

. 

APPENDIX  5

 

BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

 

EXCERPT:

 

Annual Cost of Megapack Battery Systems; 2023 pricing

 

Assume a system rated 45.3 MW/181.9 MWh, and an all-in turnkey cost of $104.5 million, per Example 2

Amortize bank loan for 50% of $104.5 million at 6.5%/y for 15 years, $5.484 million/y

Pay Owner return of 50% of $104.5 million at 10%/y for 15 years, $6.765 million/y (10% due to high inflation)

Lifetime (Bank + Owner) payments 15 x (5.484 + 6.765) = $183.7 million

 

Assume battery daily usage for 15 years at 10%, and loss factor = 1/(0.9 *0.9)

Battery lifetime output = 15 y x 365 d/y x 181.9 MWh x 0.1, usage x 1000 kWh/MWh = 99,590,250 kWh to HV grid; 122,950,926 kWh from HV grid; 233,606,676 kWh loss

 

(Bank + Owner) payments, $183.7 million / 99,590,250 kWh = 184.5 c/kWh

Less 50% subsidies (ITC, depreciation in 5 years, deduction of interest on borrowed funds) is 92.3c/kWh

At 10% usage, (Bank + Owner) cost, 92.3 c/kWh

At 40% usage, (Bank + Owner) cost, 23.1 c/kWh

 

Excluded costs/kWh: 1) O&M; 2) system aging, 1.5%/y, 3) 19% HV grid-to-HV grid loss, 3) grid extension/reinforcement to connect battery systems, 5) downtime of parts of the system, 6) decommissioning in year 15, i.e., disassembly, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites.
 
NOTE: The 40% throughput is close to Tesla’s recommendation of 60% maximum throughput, i.e., not charging above 80%  full and not discharging below 20% full, to achieve a 15-y life, with normal aging

 

NOTE: Tesla’s recommendation was not heeded by the owners of the Hornsdale Power Reserve in Australia. They added Megapacks to offset rapid aging of the original system, and added more Megapacks to increase the rating of the expanded system.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-hornsdale-power-reserve-largest-battery-system-in-australia

 

COMMENT ON CALCULATION

Regarding any project, the bank and the owner have to be paid, no matter what.
Therefore, I amortized the bank loan and the owner’s investment

If you divide the total of the payments over 15 years by the throughput during 15 years, you get the cost per kWh, as shown.

According to EIA annual reports, almost all battery systems have throughputs less than 10%. I chose 10% for calculations.

A few battery systems have higher throughputs, if they are used to absorb midday solar and discharge it during peak hour periods of late-afternoon/early-evening.
They may reach up to 40% throughput. I chose 40% for calculations

Remember, you have to draw about 50 units from the HV grid to deliver about 40 units to the HV grid, because of a-to-z system losses. That gets worse with aging.

A lot of people do not like these c/kWh numbers, because they have been repeatedly told by self-serving folks, battery Nirvana is just around the corner, which is a load of crap.

APPENDIX 6

 

Solar is in a Downturn, Similar to Offshore Wind

SolarEdge Technologies shares plunged about two weeks ago, after it warned about decreasing European demand. 

 

Solar Panels Are Much More Carbon-Intensive Than Experts are Willing to Admit

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/solar-panels-are-more-...

 

SolarEdge Melts Down After Weak Guidance 

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-solar-implosion-s...

 

The Great Green Crash – Solar Down 40%

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/11/08/the-great-green-crash-solar-...

 

APPENDIX 7

 

Miscellaneous Sources of Information

 

World's Largest Offshore Wind System Developer Abandons Two Major US Projects as Wind/Solar Bust Continues 

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/world-s-largest-offsho...

 

US/UK 66,000 MW OF OFFSHORE WIND BY 2030; AN EXPENSIVE FANTASY  

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biden-30-000-mw-of-off...

 

BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

 

Regulatory Rebuff Blow to Offshore Wind Projects; Had Asked for Additional $25.35 billion

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/regulatory-rebuff-blow...

 

Offshore Wind is an Economic and Environmental Catastrophe

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/offshore-wind-is-an-ec...

 

Four NY offshore projects ask for almost 50% price rise

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/four-ny-offshore-proje...

 

EV Owners Facing Soaring Insurance Costs in the US and UK

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/ev-owners-facing-soari...

 

U.S. Offshore Wind Plans Are Utterly Collapsing

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/u-s-offshore-wind-plan...

 

Values Of Used EVs Plummet, As Dealers Stuck With Unsold Cars

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/values-of-used-evs-plu...

 

Electric vehicles catch fire after being exposed to saltwater from Hurricane Idalia

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/electric-vehicles-catc...

 

The Electric Car Debacle Shows the Top-Down Economics of Net Zero Don’t Add Up

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-electric-car-debac...

 

Lifetime Performance of World’s First Offshore Wind System in the North Sea 

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/lifetime-performance-o...

 

Solar Panels Are Much More Carbon-Intensive Than Experts are Willing to Admit

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/solar-panels-are-more-...

 

IRENA, a Renewables Proponent, Ignores the Actual Cost Data for Offshore Wind Systems in the UK
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/irena-a-european-renew...

 

UK Offshore Wind Projects Threaten to Pull Out of Uneconomical Contracts, unless Subsidies are Increased

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/uk-offshore-wind-proje...

 

CO2 IS A LIFE GAS; NO CO2 = NO FLORA AND NO FAUNA

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/co2-is-a-life-gas-no-c...

 

AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS DO NOT ECONOMICALLY DISPLACE FOSSIL FUEL BTUs IN COLD CLIMATES

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/air-source-heat-pumps-...

.

IRELAND FUEL AND CO2 REDUCTIONS DUE TO WIND ENERGY LESS THAN CLAIMED    

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fuel-and-co2-reduction...

 

APPENDIX 8

 

Nuclear Plants by Russia

 

According to the IAEA, during the first half of 2023, a total of 407 nuclear reactors are in operation at power plants across the world, with a total capacity at about 370,000 MW

Nuclear was 2546 TWh, or 9.2%, of world electricity production in 2022

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/batteries-in-new-england

Rosatom, a Russian Company, is building more nuclear reactors than any other country in the world, according to data from the Power Reactor Information System of the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA.

The data show, a total of 58 large-scale nuclear power reactors are currently under construction worldwide, of which 23 are being built by Russia.

 

Nuclear Plants: A typical plant may have up to 4 reactors, usually about 1,200 MW each

.

In Egypt, 4 reactors, each 1,200 MW = 4,800 MW for $30 billion, or about $6,250/kW, 

The cost of the nuclear power plant is $28.75 billion.

As per a bilateral agreement, signed in 2015, approximately 85% of it is financed by Russia, and to be paid for by Egypt under a 22-year loan with an interest rate of 3%.
That cost is at least 40% less than US/UK/EU

.

In Turkey, 4 reactors, each 1,200 MW = 4,800 MW for $20 billion, or about $4,200/kW, entirely financed by Russia. The plant will be owned and operated by Rosatom

.

In India, 6 VVER-1000 reactors, each 1,000 MW = 6,000 MW at the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant.

Capital cost about $15 billion. Units 1, 2, 3 and 4 are in operation, units 5 and 6 are being constructed

.

Rosatom, created in 2007 by combining several Russian companies, usually provides full service during the entire project life, such as training, new fuel bundles, refueling, waste processing and waste storage in Russia, etc., because the various countries likely do not have the required systems and infrastructures

 

Nuclear vs Wind: Remember, these nuclear plants reliably produce steady electricity, at reasonable cost/kWh, and have near-zero CO2 emissions

They have about 0.90 capacity factors, and last 60 to 80 years

Nuclear do not require counteracting plants. They can be designed to be load-following, as some are in France

.

Offshore wind systems produce variable, unreliable power, at very high cost/kWh, and are far from CO2-free, on a

mine-to-hazardous landfill basis.
They have lifetime capacity factors, on average, of about 0.40; about 0.45 in very windy places

They last about 20 to 25 years in a salt water environment 
They require: 1) a fleet of quick-reacting power plants to counteract the up/down wind outputs, on a less-than-minute-by-minute basis, 24/7/365, 2) major expansion/reinforcement of electric grids to connect the wind systems to load centers, 3)  a lot of land and sea area, 4) curtailment payments, i.e., pay owners for what they could have produced

 

Major Competitors: Rosatom’s direct competitors, according to PRIS data, are three Chinese companies: CNNC, CSPI and CGN.
They are building 22 reactors, but it should be noted, they are being built primarily inside China, and the Chinese partners are building five of them together with Rosatom.

American and European companies are lagging behind Rosatom, by a wide margin,” Alexander Uvarov, a director at the Atom-info Center and editor-in-chief at the atominfo.ru website, told TASS.

 

Tripling Nuclear? During COP28 in opulent Dubai, Kerry called for the world to triple CO2-free nuclear, from 370,200 MW to about 1,110,600 MW, by 2050.

https://phys.org/news/2023-12-triple-nuclear-power-cop28.html

 

Based on past experience in the US and EU, it takes at least 10 years to commission nuclear plants

That means, plants with about 39 reactors must be started each year, for 16 years (2024 to 2040), to fill the pipeline, to commission the final ones by 2050, in addition to those already in the pipeline.

 

New nuclear: Kerry’s nuclear tripling by 2050, would be 11% of the 2050 world electricity generation. See table

Existing nuclear: If some of the older plants are shut down, and plants already in the pipeline are placed in operation, that nuclear would be about 5% to the world total generation in 2050

Nuclear was 9.2% of 2022 generation.

Total nuclear would be about 16%, and would have minimal impact on CO2 emissions and ppm in 2050. 

Infrastructures and Manpower: The building of the new nuclear plants would require a major increase in infrastructures and educating and training of personnel, in addition to the cost of the power plants.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/electricity-sources-by-fuel-in-202....

.

 

Existing Nuclear, MW, 2022	370200
Proposed tripling	3
Tripled Nuxlear, MW, 2050	1110600
New Nuclear, MW	740400
MW/reactor	1200
Reactors	617
New Reactors, rounded	620
Reactors/site	2
Sites	310
New nuclear production, MWh, 2050	5841311760
Conversion factor	1000000	%
New nuclear production, TWh, 2050	5841	11
World total production, TWh, 2050	53000

 

APPENDIX 9

 

Electricity prices vary by type of customer

 

Retail electricity prices are usually highest for residential and commercial consumers because it costs more to distribute electricity to them. Industrial consumers use more electricity and can receive it at higher voltages, so supplying electricity to these customers is more efficient and less expensive. The retail price of electricity to industrial customers is generally close to the wholesale price of electricity.

In 2022, the U.S. annual average retail price of electricity was about 12.49¢ per kilowatthour (kWh).1

The annual average retail electricity prices by major types of utility customers in 2022 were:

 

Residential, 15.12 ¢/kWh

Commercial, 12.55 ¢/kWh

Industrial, 8.45 ¢/kWh

Transportation, 11.66 ¢/kWh

 

Electricity prices vary by locality

 

Electricity prices vary by locality based on the availability of power plants and fuels, local fuel costs, and pricing regulations. In 2022, the annual average retail electricity price for all types of electric utility customers ranged from 39.85¢ per kWh in Hawaii to 8.24¢ per kWh in Wyoming.2. 

Prices in Hawaii are high relative to other states mainly because most of its electricity is generated with petroleum fuels that must be imported into the state.

1 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.3, February 2023, preliminary data.
2 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B, February 2023, preliminary data.

Last updated: June 29, 2023, with data from the Electric Power Monthly, February 2023; data for 2022 are preliminary.

See URL

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/prices-and-factors-...

 

In the US, the cost of electricity to ratepayers ranges from about 8 c/kWh (Wyoming) to 40 c/kWh (Hawaii), for an average of about 12.5 c/kWh.

US ratepayers buy about 4000 billion kWh/y from utilities, costing about $500 BILLION/Y

With a lot of wind/solar/batteries/EVs by 2050, and ratepayers buying 8000 billion kWh/y, because of electrification, the average rate to ratepayers would be about 25 c/kWh,

US ratepayers would pay: two times the kWh x two times the price/kWh = $2,000 BILLION/Y
Electric bills would increase by a factor of 4, if all that scare-mongering renewable nonsense were implemented

NOTE: All numbers are without inflation, i.e., constant 2023 dollars

 

APPENDIX 10

 

LIFE WITHOUT OIL?

 

Life without oil means many products that are made with oil, such as the hundreds listed below, would need to be provided by wind and solar and hydro, which can be done theoretically, but only at enormous cost.

Folks, including Biden's handlers, wanting to get rid of fossil fuels, such as crude oil, better start doing some rethinking.

The above also applies to natural gas, which is much preferred by many industries, such as glass making, and the chemical and drug industries.

If you do not have abundant, low-cost energy, you cannot have modern industrial economies.

 

Without Crude Oil, there can be no Electricity.

 

Every experienced engineer knows, almost all the parts of wind, solar and battery systems, for electricity generation and storage, from mining materials to manufacturing parts, to installation and commissioning, in addition to the infrastructures that produce materials, parts, specialized ships, etc., are made from the oil derivatives manufactured from raw crude oil.

There is no escaping of this reality, except in green la-la-land.

.