Willem Post's Blog (1,031)

Daily, Weekly and Seasonal Electricity Storage

MIT Professor Steven Chu, former US-DOE Secretary, stated:

- Whereas, the turnkey capital costs of battery systems likely would be about 50% less over the next decade, that storage approach would never be cheap enough to accommodate the big seasonal shifts in renewable power production.

- Battery systems could prove…

EVS AND PLUG-IN HYBRIDS IN NEW ENGLAND AND NORWAY

The VT Public Utilities Commission, PUC, working together with self-styled transportation gurus, and RE activists, such as the Conservation Law Foundation CLF, want to subsidize low-income Vermonters to drive electric vehicles.

The same RE folks pushing for unilateral carbon taxes also are pushing for subsidies for plug-in EVs…

THE EU AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-eu-and-international-trade

By Willem Post

Most US economists do not worry about US trade deficits to a large degree. They claim trade imbalances are affected by a host of macroeconomic factors, including the relative economic growth rates of countries, the value of their currencies, and…

Vermont has an anemic, near-zero, real-growth economy, which does not produce enough tax revenues year after year, partially due to the huge RE giveaways, such as: 

1) Federal and state ITCs; upfront giveaways to offset any taxes. 

2) Federal and state taxes not paid due to rapid depreciation write-offs during there first 6 years 

3) Federal and state taxes not paid due to loan interest deducted from taxable profits.

4)…

A wise person would advocate putting the horse before the car, i.e., first use less energy, then build-out the much lesser capacity systems needed for the energy still being used. This is so simple. Most people get it, but most pro-carbon tax folks do not.

Pro-carbon tax folks want to have the unilateral carbon tax now, so the state government would set up various programs, and folks would have to go through various hurdles to qualify to get some of their money back; most…

Cape Wind, started in 2001, 468 MW, turnkey capital cost $2.6 billion, $5550/kW, to be located south of Nantucket, highly visible to many multi-millionaires summering on the Island, has finally been cancelled as of 1 December 2017.

The negotiated Cape Wind power purchase agreement called for 18.7 c/kWh the first year, increasing at 3.5% per year for 20 years, to reach 37.2 c/kWh in the 20th year. These are wholesale prices. The utility mandated to buy that expensive…

Based on the plan of eliminating fossil fuel plants (they emit CO2 and particulates) and nuclear fuel plants (they are alleged to be dangerous) by 2050, the existing gas, nuclear, coal and oil generating plants would be decommissioned and no new ones would be built.

This would require huge build-outs of wind, solar, and storage systems, and increased electricity supply via external ties to adjacent grids.

The storage systems serve to cover wind and solar…

New England wind and solar electricity generation is much more expensive, c/kWh, than elsewhere in the US; wind electricity cost in the US south is even higher than in New England. See URLs and table 2.

Here is a partial list of the various subsidies for wind and solar that artificially lower their electricity costs. Those costs would be much higher without subsidies, and higher still with the addition of the costs of:

1) Peaking, filling-in, and balancing the…

PUMPED STORAGE HYDRO IN NEW ENGLAND

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/pumped-storage-hydro-in-new-england

By Willem Post

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Pumped storage hydro, PSH, is the largest-capacity form of …

As part of COP21, the US offered* a pledge to reduce emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. The emission reduction would be at a 14% more rapid rate during the 2015 - 2025 period, than during the 2005 - 2015 period, which was made easier, because it benefitted from the reduced burning of coal and increased burning of natural gas and generous subsidies that are scheduled to decrease in future years. See below table with 2025 targets based on EPA data from Page ES-10 of…

The four largest CO2eq emitters are shown in the below table. The world CO2eq emissions, all sources, is based on 50 billion metric ton CO2eq in 2012. See URLs.

http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india.html

https://www.carbonbrief.org/paris-2015-tracking-country-climate-pledges…

Germany, a major industrial country, is a leader in renewable energy generation. However, Germany made a significant mistake. Germany decided to phase out its nuclear plants, which produce low-cost electricity that has near-zero CO2/kWh, instead of replacing the plants. Germany continued to the use of lignite, a soft coal (low-Btu/lb.) coal, and hard coal. As a result, the CO2eq emissions have not decreased for the past 8 years.

Germany is headed for a clear failure to meet…

Various government entities, eager to show their greenness regarding global warming, passed laws to subsidize renewable power, so-called “green power”, as if there is such a thing. Some governments even passed laws that declare hydropower as non-renewable, but, on reflection of its implications, reversed themselves and passed laws that declare hydropower IS renewable, as recently did Vermont’s legislature.

President Andrew Jackson, Democrat, populist: “When government…

This article describes the build-outs of nuclear, wind and solar required by 2050 to make progress towards the IPCC temperature goals of 2.0 C above pre-industrial by 2100 or 1.5 C above pre-industrial by 2100. Estimates of world and US electricity generation are shown. See URLs.

 …

The world’s fossil fuel consumption has been about 78% of all primary energy* for the past 10 years, despite several trillion dollars of investments in RE systems. Current coal consumption is about 8000 million metric ton/y. China and India use about 60%.

* The energy from wells, mines, forests, etc., is called source energy, less exploration, extraction, processing and transport energy = primary energy to power plants, buildings, vehicles, industry,…

SUMMARY OF WORLD CO2eq EMISSIONS; ALL SOURCES AND ENERGY RELATED

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/summary-of-world-co2eq-emissions-all-sources-and-energy-related

The man-made world CO2eq, energy related, were only about 36.183/53.4 =…

Recently the media reported wind and solar are competitive with coal and natural gas for generating electricity. The Wall Street Journal published an article “Economic impact of wind farms is changing the political dynamics of renewable energy”.

It is of major importance to understand, financial entities, such as Bloomberg and Lazard, hype wind and solar, because they want to promote their financial management services for high-net-worth investors, who are looking to shelter…

This article describes the current global CO2eq emission from all sources, not just energy-related, and the COP21/IPCC goals regarding reducing CO2eq during the 2017 - 2100 period to avoid excessive global warming above pre-industrial (the 1861 - 1880 period). See URL of The Emissions Gap Report 2017.…

During the past 420,000 years, various forces combined to cause 4 major glaciation and thawing cycles. The world temperature was about 2 - 3 C above and about 8 - 9.5 C below, the reference value of the past 10,000 years. The past four cycles indicate, the world, surrounded by outer space at near absolute zero, has a hard time warming up above reference, but a much easier time cooling down below reference, i.e., computer model global warming predictions of 4.3 C above pre-industrial likely…

Should the US stay with COP21 to reduce CO2 emissions or not. The real issues are about international trade, reducing the US trade deficit, improving the US debtor nation status, bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, and paying for world peacekeeping. The US would be less competitive in world markets if:

- The US invested more in renewable energy systems, such as expensive offshore wind. It would increase its cost structure.

- The US continues to overinvest in…