GERMANY, CALIFORNIA AND VERMONT STAGNANT CO2 EMISSIONS

GERMANY

 

Germany, a major industrial country, is a leader in renewable energy generation. However, Germany made a significant mistake. Germany decided to phase out its nuclear plants, which produce low-cost electricity that has near-zero CO2/kWh, instead of replacing the plants. Germany continued to the use of lignite, a soft coal (low-Btu/lb.) coal, and hard coal. As a result, the CO2eq emissions have not decreased for the past 8 years.

 

Germany is headed for a clear failure to meet its 2020 and 2030 CO2eq reduction targets, according to calculations by the country’s environment ministry. Without further action, Germany’s CO2eq emissions will only be 31.7% to 32.5% below 1990 levels, an internal environment ministry paper seen by the Clean Energy Wire shows.

 

Given the official target of reducing CO2eq by 40%, the ministry warns that a failure of this magnitude would constitute a “significant blow to Germany’s climate policy”, and would amount to “a disaster for Germany’s international reputation as a climate leader”.

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/10/11/germany-miss-climate-ta...

 

Germany Not Reaching CO2eq Goals: Germany’s CO2eq emissions(from all sources) are about the same as in 2009. As part of the Energiewende, Germany is aiming to have:

 

- 80% of its electricity from RE by 2050

- 60% of all primary energy from RE by 2050

- 80% less CO2eq than in 1990, by 2050

 

Germany will not meet its CO2eq reduction targets for 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, unless it immediately starts phasing out all coal power plants, which produced 261.5/648.3 = 40.3% of net electricity generation in 2016.

 

NOTE:The Energiewende taxes, fees and surcharges on electric bills of German households totaled about 9 x 25 billion euro = 225 billion euro during 9 years (2009 - 2017) and achieved ZERO CO2eq emission reduction.  See table 5.

 

http://www.ag-energiebilanzen.de/4-1-Home.html

https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/klima-energie/energieversorgung/strom-waermeversorgung-in-zahlen?sprungmarke=Strommix - Strommix

 

Table 5/Year	All sources CO2eq	Below 1990	CO2 Elect	Below 1990
	Million Mt	%	Million Mt	%
1990 actual	1252		427
2000 actual	1045		358
2009 actual	908	28	345
2010 actual	943		357
2013 actual	942		367
2014 actual	903		349
2015 actual	907		337
2016 actual	909	28	332	22
2017 actual	905	28	319
2020 target	751	40
2030 target	562	55
2040 target	375	70
2050 target	250	80

 

Germany’s Solar Sector Growth Decreased Since 2010

 

German solar in 2017 was 39.9/654.8 = 6% of total generation, and wind 106.6/654.8 = 16.3% total generation. For now, Germany still manages to deal with 6% solar, because it is “allowed” to spread its excess electricity at near zero or negative wholesale prices to nearby grids. Those grids act as safety valves*.

 

*The solar-induced electricity surge is a large midday Tsunami, if clear skies; a variable Tsunami, if variable cloudiness; a lesser Tsunami, if overcast; a near-zero Tsunami, if snow and ice on most of the panels, in early morning, in late afternoon; a zero Tsunami, if at night. The celebrating (aka hyping), and subsidizing of that kind of troublesome electricity, and equating it with the steady, 24/7/365 electricity of traditional plants is far beyond rational.

 

Additional Items Regarding Solar in Germany

 

- Feed-in tariffs (FITs) for new solar systems (residential rooftop) were about 49.2 eurocent/kWh in 2007; and about 12.2 eurocent/kWh in 2015, 2016 and 2017.

- Larger-scale, ground-mounted FITs were about 8.0 eurocent/kWh in 2015, 2016 and 2017. See figure 4 of Fraunhofer URL.

- Investments for new solar systems were 5.5 b euro in 2007 and 19.5 b euro in 2010 (the high point), but were only 2.40, 1.62 and 1.58 b euro in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively.

- Solar sector employment was 38,600 in 2007; peaked at 110,900 in 2011; was only 31,600 in 2015.

- Annual solar system capacity additions were over 7000 MW in 2010, 2011, and 2012 (the high point years), but were only 1320, 1490 and 2260 MW in 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively, less than the 2500 MW/y Energiewende goal.

- Annual solar electricity generation slightly increased during 2015, 2016 and 2017, due to annual capacity additions.

- Legacy solar electricity cost was about 53 eurocent/kWh in 2005 and 2006 and slowlydecreased to about 27 eurocent/kWh in 2017. That legacy cost will be slowlydecreasing as about 2000 MW/y is added to the installed capacity. See figure 4 in Fraunhofer URL.

- On a sunny day, much solar electricity is generated at about 27 eurocent/kWh, and very little by the traditional generators at about 5 eurocent/kWh, thus the national mix of electricity costs at least 20 eurocent/kWh. A part of that mix is exported at near-zero or negative wholesale prices.

-  In 2017, the average FIT was = 0.30 x 12.2 (small rooftop) + 0.70 x (4.8 + 6.5)/2 (large-scale, ground-mounted) = 7.615 c/kWh, which reduced the solar FIT from 28.1 c/kWh at end 2016 to (40720 x 28.1 + 2260 x 7.615)/42980 = 27 c/kWh at end 2017, a reduction of about 1.0 c/y.

- German household electricity prices were 15 eurocent/kWh in 2000; were about 30 eurocent/kWh in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, a 100% increase in 17 years. See URL.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/what-german-households-p...

 

http://notrickszone.com/2018/04/21/green-failure-german-solar-indus...

https://www.thegwpf.com/green-mega-flop-german-solar-industry-crash...

https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/en/documents/publicat...

https://www.energy-charts.de/power_inst.htm?year=2014&period=an...

 

Additional descriptions of Germany’s ENERGIEWENDE results are in these URLs.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/germany-not-meeting-co2...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-energy-l...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/german-renewable-energy...

 

CALIFORNIA

 

With all its efforts to install wind and solar, and do away with nuclear and coal-fired power generation, California has made very little reduction of its CO2 emissions, compared with 1990 levels. Some of the reductions since 2008 were caused by the great recession. California’s 2020 target is merely to reach 1990 levels. See EIA graph in first URL, and figure 1 in third URL, and spreadsheet in fourth URL.

 

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=34792

https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/1990level/1990level.htm

https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/pubs/reports/2000_2016/ghg_inve...

https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/tables/ghg_inventory_scopi...

 

Table 1/Year	Total CO2	Below 1990	Electrical CO2	Transportation CO2
Units	million Mt	%	million Mt	million Mt
1990	431.00	Actual
2000	467.19	Actual	104.84	176.49
2008	482.78	Actual	120.14	173.18
2009	453.34	Actual	101.37	166.37
2015	440.36	Actual	83.67	166.14
2016	429.40	Actual	68.58	169.38
2017		Estimate	62
2020, goal	431	0
2030, goal	259	40
2040, goal	172	60
2050, goal	86	80

California Electric Rates

 

California’s electricity rates increased 5.7 times fasterthan the rest of the US during the 2011 - 2017 period, due to the rapid build-outs of wind and solar and storage. The data in the table is from the EIA. See URL.

http://environmentalprogress.org/big-news/2018/2/12/electricity-pri...

 

Table 2/Year	California	US	Times faster
	c/kWh	c/kWh
2011	13.1	9.7
2012	13.5	9.6
2013	14.3	9.8
2014	15.2	10.1
2015	15.4	10.0
2016	15.3	9.9
2017	16.2	10.1
Increase; %	23.7	4.1	5.7

 

California’s PV Solar Rooftop Mandate Grossly Inadequate

 

California, with great fanfare and huge media accolades, announced it will mandate PV rooftop solar on all NEW residences, including any building of three stories or less, beginning in 2020. This will greatly worsen the Duck Curve conditions.

http://www.powerforusa.com/2018/05/22/effects-of-mandating-pv-rooft...

 

The mandate should have been Zero Net Energy, which would require NEW buildings be:

 

1) Highly sealed and insulated, and

2) Have long time constants for heating and cooling,

3) Have low requirements for heating, cooling and electricity, a la Passivhaus.

 

A next step would be for all NEW buildings to be Energy Surplus, which would require these buildings to have enough solar and battery capacity for all electricity needs, and for charging plug-in hybrid vehicles, PHVs, and all electric vehicles, PEVs.

Additional description of Duck Curves is in this URL

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-hype-ver...

 

VERMONT

 

Based in the latest Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Update 1990 - 2013, issued July 2017, it appears there has been an increasein CO2eq emissions from 8.378 million metric ton in 1990 to 8.745 MMt in 2013. The numbers for 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 likely were about the same as 2013. See table 1.

http://dec.vermont.gov/sites/dec/files/aqc/climate-change/documents...

 

NOTE:It is truly amazing Germany, with a hugely more complex economy than Vermont, has up-to-date CO2eq data for 2017, but Vermont only manages to come up with 2013 data in July 2017!

 

- If the CO2eq of wood burning is added, the CO2eq becomes about 10.0 MMt in 1990 and 10.8 MMt in 2013.

- If Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry, LULUCF, are subtracted, the CO2eq becomes 5.2 MMt in 1990 and 6.350 MMt in 2013. See URL.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-far-from-meetin...

 

CO2 Sequestering by Vermont’s Forests Has Decreased

 

The CO2eq sequestering of Vermont’s forests has decreased, because of:

 

1) Less forest acreage, due to encroachments and development.

2) Increased clearcutting, roads, and other development within forests, which reduces sequestering, CO2eq/acre.

3) About 50% of standing timber being of low quality and suitable only for burning.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/is-wood-burning-carbon-... 

 

Year/Source	1990	2000	2005	2013	2014	2015	Share
Units; million Mt							%
Electricity	1.090	0.430	0.640	0.810	0.840	1.000	10.00
Transportation	3.380	4.150	4.490	3.880	4.200	4.330	43.28
Res’l/Com’l/Ind’l	2.410	2.860	2.980	2.460	2.600	2.780	27.79
Fossil fuel	0.0077	0.0040	0.0039	0.0047	0.0048	0.0050	0.05
Waste	0.270	0.360	0.340	0.220	0.210	0.170	1.70
Agriculture	1.220	1.230	1.170	1.120	1.120	1.140	11.39
Ind’l Processes	0.210	0.590	0.590	0.600	0.570	0.580	5.80
Total # 1	8.588	9.624	10.214	9.095	9.545	9.990	100.00
Wood combustion	1.412	1.776	1.686	1.405	1.055	0.795
Total # 2	10.000	11.400	11.900	10.500	10.600	10.785
LU, LUC, F	-4.800					-4.450
Total # 3	5.200					6.335
VT forest area; million acres	4.6					4.5
Aboveground C; million Mt	110.0					128.0

 

Vermont CO2 Reduction Goals

 

Vermont has a Comprehensive Energy Plan (latest revision in 2016) with CO2 reduction goals as show in below table. They exceed California and Germany CO2 reduction goals.

 

Year	Actuals	Goals pulled out of a hat	% below 1990
	million Mt	million Mt
1990	8.588
2012	9.000	6.450	25
2013	9.095
2014	9.545
2015	9.990
2028		4.300	50
2030		5.160	40
2050		2.150	75
2050		1.720	80
2050		0.430	95