RE FOLKS HOLD HIGH-LEVEL MEETINGS REGARDING WIND AND SOLAR BRINGING WORLD PEACE

Energy Secretary Granholm says solar panels may bring about world peace

Wow! That is amazing. Solar the Savior!

Solar, the Savior

 

Solar is very expensive on an “all-in” cost basis, shows up around midday, disturbs the grid, so the other electricity generators have to ramp up and down their outputs, to allow this short-time intruder onto the grid. After that disturbance, peace and quiet is restored to the grid, until the unruly intruder shows up again the next day; its output depending on 1) level of sunshine, 2) variable cloudiness, 3) snow and ice, and 4) the seasons. See table 1 and URLs

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cost-shifting-is-the-na...

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-provide...

 

Table 1/VT & NE sources

Paid to

Subsidy

Grid

GMP

 Added

ISO-NE

Total

NE

Times

 

 

paid to

support

 

to rate

RNS+

 

utility

 

owner

towner

cost

adder

base

FCM

cost

cost

c/kWh

c/kWh

c/kWh

c/kWh

c/kWh

c/kWh

c/kWh

c/kWh

Solar, rooftop, net-metered, new

17.4

5.2

2.1

3.5

20.9

1.6

29.8

7.6

3.92

Solar, rooftop, net-metered, legacy

18.2

5.4

2.1

3.5

21.7

1.6

30.8

7.6

4.05

Solar, standard offer, combo

11.0

6.74

2.1

11.0

1.6

21.44

7.6

2.82

Solar, standard offer, legacy

21.7

10.5

2.1

21.7

1.6

35.9

7.6

4.72

Wind, ridge line, new

8.5

3.9

2.4

8.5

1.6

16.4

7.6

2.15

Wind, offshore, new

9.0

4.1

2.4

9.0

1.6

17.1

7.6

2.25

 

As an energy systems analyst with about 4 decades of experience in the energy sector, I find it very difficult to see this expensive unruly intruder as having anything to do with world peace.

 

Wind and solar cannot even be fed into the grid, without the other electricity generators being forced to alter their outputs up and down to counteract the unpredictable output variations of wind and solar, 24/7/365

 

Other Drawbacks of Wind and Solar

 

Utility/grid-scale wind and solar cannot exist without greatly aggravating nearby rural folks

Those folks have to be cajoled, or brow-beaten, or scare-mongered, into acceptance of the land-guzzling monstrosities.

Folks living near wind turbines have been told wind turbine noises are imaginary, and that their infrasound is harmless

A parade of glib-talking lawyers and experts travel to various town meeting sites to testify, i.e., lie and obfuscate

 

The image shows a heavily subsidized, solar monstrosity destroying perfectly good farmland for at least 25 years. It would produce near-zero electricity 1) from late-afternoon/early-evening to about mid-morning the next day, every day, 2) if covered by snow and ice. Solar the Savior! 

 

On top of that, rural folks are coerced to pay the subsidies for these way-of-life-altering monstrosities.

The more wind and solar per capita, the higher household electric rates, as proven in Denmark and Germany 

 

Electricity prices in the first half of 2021 were highest in Germany (EUR 0.3193 per kWh), Denmark (EUR 0.2900 per kWh), Belgium (EUR 0.2702 per kWh) and Ireland (EUR 0.2555 per kWh), all with the most wind and solar per capita

There is no way, New England could avoid very high household electric rates, if it follows the wind and solar scenario.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=...

 

 

Wealthy Folks Love Their Wind and Solar Tax Shelters

 

Those monstrosities are owned by wealthy folks living elsewhere, likely close to a golf course or yacht club 

They would not be caught dead near any of them

They enjoy their lucrative, tax-shelter subsidies for decades

They are doing their part fighting climate change. 

 

Fair is Fair

Warren Buffett Quote: "I will do anything that is basically covered by the law to reduce Berkshire's tax rate," Buffet told an audience in Omaha, Nebraska recently. "For example, on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit." 

https://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/nancy-pfotenhauer/2014/05/12/e...

PART 1

 

Department of Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm suggested solar panels and wind farms could be the key to ensuring world peace in the future.

 

Solar, wind and other renewable sources would be key for the US, and its European allies to have energy security, Granholm said during her remarks at the US/EU Energy Ministerial, hosted by the US State Department on Monday, February 8, 2022.

 

She added, fossil fuel dependence puts the West at greater risk of volatile energy prices.

 

“High energy prices have been putting strains on households on both sides of the Atlantic,” Granholm remarked. “In Europe, you have seen prices go through the roof. Of course, tensions between Russia and Ukraine pose threats to the energy security of the EU, who are our friends and partners.”

 

“All of this underscores the benefits of clean energy,” she continued. “I was at a ministerial last week, and my counterpart in Ireland, Minister Ryan, said words I thought were very interesting:

 

No country has been held hostage to access to the sun.

No country has been hostage to the wind.

This is not just an energy and climate issue; it is also potentially the greatest peace plan that ever existed.”

 

Granholm, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and their EU counterparts discussed a range of issues at the ministerial, including global net-zero ambitions, and clean energy investment, according to a joint statement issued by the US/EU, on Monday, February 8, 2022.

 

But the meeting also focused on the European energy crisis , in part caused by Russia’s decision to cut off natural gas supplies as the weather got colder, over the last several months.

This is a false statement. See Note

 

NOTE: Up to 40% Additional LNG Carrier Loads, if Russian Pipeline Gas Supply to Europe were Stopped 

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-plot-is-thickening...

 

Brussels wind/solar bureaucrats make the same mistakes as Washington wind/solar bureaucrats

 

The only beneficiaries are multi-billion companies that supply the wind and solar systems, and Utilities, that sell much more high-priced electricity due to implementing the "electrify everything" mantra

 

Everyone else gets screwed with higher taxes, fees and surcharges, and higher household electric rates, as happened in Denmark and Germany.

 

Those people are told to grin-and-bear-it/sacrifice, because they are “fighting” climate change, a la Don-Quixote tilting at wind mills, while the RE subsidy-collecting elites cruise around in private jets and yachts.

 

Historically, the EU has imported very minor quantities of LNG, because LNG prices are about 25 - 30% higher than pipeline gas bought from Russia, under long-term contracts.

That will always be the case, due to cost differences of applicable technologies.

 

Brussels RE bureaucrats, likely with little hands-on experience in the energy sector, have urged EU countries not to sign long-term gas supply contracts with Russia, because that would send the wrong “virtue signal” regarding “weaning the EU off fossil fuels”. Just google, if you find this incredible.

 

As a result of Brussels RE bureaucrat myopic decisions, EU spot prices for gas have become “volatile”, i.e., about 5 to 10 times long-term prices

 

Russia made sure to reliably provide pipeline gas, to clients with signed long-term contract, as confirmed by Brussels, Germany, Turkey, etc.

Russia has no contractual obligations to supply gas to the EU spot market to reduce prices

Russia has no contractual obligations to fill the EU above- and belowground gas storage reservoirs

This was known by Brussels RE bureaucrats, prior to their myopic decisions.

The EIA image shows:

 

EU-27 gas imports from various sources in billion cubic meter per day.

EU-27 production has been decreasing for at least 20 years.

Imports of LNG increased in 2019 and 2020 (pre COVID), due to Nord Stream2 not yet completed

Nord Stream capacity 55 bcm/y, or about 0.15 bcm/d; much brouhaha for a minor addition to Russian supply

Nord Stream 2 was completed at end 2021.

 

KILLING NORD STREAM2

 

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden has stood by his decision to support Nord Stream 2, a direct Russia-to-Germany pipeline that would tether EU natural gas supply to a Russian state-run energy firm.

 

The president said Nord Stream 2 would be killed, only if Russian troops invaded Ukraine, following a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House on Monday.

 

NOTE: Germany has given no commitment regarding “killing” Nord stream2  

 

“Energy security is tied directly to national security, regional security, global security,” Blinken said during a news conference. “Europe needs reliable and affordable energy, especially in the winter months.”

 

 “When Russia halted gas supplies to Europe over a dispute with Ukraine in 2009, people died from the cold. And when energy supplies fail, economies falter,” he added.

 

EXPLANATION: UKRAINE HAD BEEN SIPHONING GAS, MEANT FOR EU COUNTRIES, FROM THE TRANSIT PIPELINES FOR YEARS. RUSSIA COMPLAINED MANY TIMES, DID NOT GET PAID BY EU COUNTRIES OR BY UKRAINE, SHUT DOWN THE PIPIELINE.

 

On Jan. 25, the White House announced it would help facilitate greater non-Russian natural gas flows into Europe amid the increasing tensions on the Ukrainian border.

 

EXPLANATION: THIS “NON-RUSSION GAS” ACTUALLY IS LIQUID NATURAL GAS, LNG, MOSTLY FROM UNSTABLE COUNTRIES, THAT IS 25% to 30% MORE EXPENSIVE THAN RUSSIAN PIPELINE GAS

 

Such LNG imports would come from North Africa, the U.S., Middle East and Asia.

 

German Energy Sector, ENERGIEWENDE, and Global Competitiveness

 

Germany is currently buying pipeline gas from Russia, under long-term contracts, at about $280 per 1000 cubic meter, or $7.93/million Btu. For comparison, US long-term pipeline gas prices are about $3/million Btu

 

Germany would be buying LNG gas, for many years, at spot prices of up to $1500 per 1000 cubic meter, or $42.47/million Btu

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-gas-flows-germany-v...

 

There is no way Germany could shut down additional coal and nuclear plants, and have more wind and solar, as part of its multi-decade ENERGIEWENDE, without having much more low-cost pipeline gas from Russia.

 

The additional gas is planned to arrive, via the completed Nords Stream2 pipeline under the Baltic Sea, directly from Russia to Germany.

 

Germany would have to buy very large quantities of LNG, at very high spot prices, from whatever unstable countries, if Russian gas were stopped.

 

That cost adder would be a major setback for Germany's world competitiveness, and very large annual trade surpluses.

The ENERGIEWENDE, and fighting climate change, would have to be on the back burner for up to 10 years. 

 

NOTE: 1000 m3 contains 1000 x 35.315 ft3/m3 x 1000 Btu/ft3 = 35,315,000 Btu

 

BIDEN EXPENSIVELY SUBSIDIZING MORE US WIND AND SOLAR

 

Biden has pushed renewable energy alternatives, including solar and wind projects, aggressively since taking office in 2021. See Note

Biden has outlined plans to ensure the entire US grid is carbon-free by 2035, and the economy reaches net-zero emissions by 2050. See URL

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biden-30-000-mw-of-off...

 

BIDEN WAGING WAR ON US INFRASTRUCTURES OF FOSSIL FUELS

 

The Biden administration has also waged a war on traditional energy production, nixing the Keystone XL pipeline, ditching an oil drilling project in Alaska and confirming it would review the possibility of shutting down a Michigan pipeline supplying much of the Midwest.

 

EXPLANATION: SUCH THOUGHTLESS DECISIONS CAUSED THE US TO BE NO LONGER ENERGY INDEPENDENT, AND DROVE UP ENERGY PTICES.

 

PART 2

 

AN ANALYSIS FOR: "IF THE US HAD 100% OF ITS ELECTRICITY FROM SOLAR"

 

If you prefer 50% wind and 50% solar, just divide the solar numbers by two.

 

SOLAR SYSTEM CAPACITY

 

The US electricity fed to grid is about 4,000 billion kWh/y, not counting future marginally useful heat pumps, and future marginally useful electric vehicles. Here are some URLs regarding heat pumps and electric vehicles, for your information 

 

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/price-shock-mercedes-h...

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/heat-pumps-are-money-l...

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/electric-bus-systems-l...

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/poor-economics-of-elec...

 

Required installed capacity, MW, of solar panels would be (4,000 billion kWh/y)/(8,766 h/y x 0.20, US average CF) = 2.28 billion kW, or 2.28 million MW, plus 1.133 margin for solar system aging at 0.5%/y, plus 20% margin for scheduled and unscheduled outages = 3.102 million MW

 

- Large areas of the US with solar panels would have unscheduled solar outages for up to a week, if covered by snow and ice. 
- If the US had 100% solar, the entire solar shortfall would need to be supplied from storage systems 

- If the US had 50% solar and 50% wind, any wind/solar shortfall would need to be supplied from storage systems, weak winds often coincide with weak solar (including  zero night-time solar), per US Weather bureau data.

 

SOLAR SYSTEM REQUIRED AREA

 

Area required would be 3,102,000 MW/(7 MW/acre) = 443,141 acres of open fields

 

TURNKEY CAPITAL COST

 

Turnkey capital cost would be 3.102 million MW x $2 million/MW = $6.204 TRILLION, plus about 10% for

 

1) High voltage grid extensions

2) Distribution grid extensions

3) Grid augmentations.

 

HVDC OVERLAY GRID

 

The 100% solar setup would require a nationwide HVDC overlay grid, connected at many hundreds of points to the existing HVAC grids, to:

 

1) Ensure electricity, generated in the sunny US Southwest, would be instantly distributed throughout the US, to wherever it is needed, such as to the overcast/sun-starved US Northeast during snow storms, and

 

2) Fill in for seasonal variations all over the US; high solar generation during summer would need to be stored, to provide electricity to areas with minimal solar generation, such as during the winter months of New England, etc.

 

The overlay grid would have a turnkey capital cost of about $500 billion.

 

STORAGE SYSTEM CAPACITY AND TURNKEY CAPTIAL COST

 

Solar electricity is mainly a midday event, which means storage capacity, MWh, is required, because solar is zero at night.

 

Assume one month of storage. That number keeps appearing in various studies

 

US average monthly consumption is 4000/12 = 333.33 TWh.

 

During periods of strong winds and good sunshine, any electricity generated in excess of US demand would be stored.

During periods of weaker winds and poorer sunshine, any electricity generated short of US demand would be withdrawn from storage.

 

The battery must be operated between 15% full and 80% full, for long 15-y life, i.e., available battery capacity is 65%.

Turnkey Capital Costs of Site-specific, Custom-designed, Utility-grade, Grid-scale Battery Systems would be (333.33 billion kWh/0.65, available capacity) x $500/kWh, plus 25% aging at 1.5%/y, plus 10% contingency to cover scheduled and unscheduled outages = $353 TRILLION, most of it would be a recurring expense EVERY 15 YEARS

 

NOTE: Similar calculations for New England storage would be as shown in table 2. See Note

 

NOTE: Even if future storage costs would decrease to a Holy-Grail-low of $100/kWh, the capital cost would still be off-the-charts unaffordable

 

NOTE: Most “analysts”, including folks enthusiastically writing for trade magazines and newspapers, do not include 1) battery system aging, 2) battery operating losses, and 3) lifetime basis; lifetime means accounting for energy and CO2 emissions from mines/wells to disposal.

 

Table 2/Storage

US

NE

Consumption

TWh/y

4000

115

Months/y

12

12

Consumption

TWh/mo

333.33

9.58

Usable fraction

0.65

0.65

Capacity

TWh

512.82

14.74

Aging factor

1.25

1.25

Capacity

TWh

641.03

18.43

Contingency

1.1

1.1

Capacity

TWh/y

705.13

20.27

Turnkey cost

$/kWh

500

500

Turnkey cost

$trillion

352.56

10.14

 

BATTERY SYSTEM LOSS, A-to-Z, LIFETIME BASIS

 

Assume the battery annual throughput, at a capacity factor of 0.5, is 2000 TWh/y

A-to-Z loss, lifetime basis, would be about 20%, or about 400 TWh/y

 

NOTE: This loss requires additional solar systems to generate it, and additional storage systems to store it. 

 

NOTE: Utility-grade, grid-scale battery systems age at about 1.5% per year, because they operate 24/7/365

 

NOTE: Batteries for EVs age at about 1% per year (depending on driver habits; frequency of high-speed charging, heavy foot, etc.), because they operate about 4 hours per day.

 

NOTE: For comparison, Biden’s BBB plan would be only $4.5 TRILLION for 10 years; about 75% for the Sanders/Wyden social programs, about 25% for energy/environment, etc.

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/build-back-better-woul...

 

HIGH COSTS OF WIND, SOLAR, AND BATTERY SYSTEMS IN US NORTHEAST

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/high-costs-of-wind-sol...

 

BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital... 

 

PUMPED STORAGE HYDRO PLANTS IN NEW ENGLAND, IF 100% WIND AND SOLAR

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/pumped-storage-hydro-p...

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Comment by Steve Thurston on February 14, 2022 at 9:04am

Competition for the raw materials to make wind turbines, solar panels and batteries is already creating conflicts, which will only get worse as we proceed into this cul-de-sac of energy poverty.   

 https://whygreeneconomy.org/solar-and-wind-energy-driver-of-conflic...

Comment by Kenneth Capron on February 14, 2022 at 2:00am

Willem - all those details. If Jennifer Granholm says its true then trust it. Although I always thought more GHG would reduce the amount of sunlight available for solar. But I'm a mere

human. Jennifer is a Commissioner right up there next to the presidency. I thought the road to peace was nukes, lasers and railguns.

Whatever, wherever warming is real, all this crap about peace and saving humanity has got to stop. Its crap.

Comment by Penny Gray on February 13, 2022 at 5:23pm

If the path to world peace is through mass starvation, 100% wind and solar is definitely the way to go.

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

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