King Coal Outdistancing Wind/Solar/Hydro/Other Renewables

By Kennedy Maize — August 15, 2023

In the worldwide battle for electric generation, coal isn’t down and out. It isn’t even on the ropes. According to World Energy Data (formerly BP’s data collection report), coal is still the champ.

World Electricity Production

In 2022, coal accounted for 35.4% of global electricity generation, followed by natural gas (22.7%), hydro (14.9%), nuclear (9.2%), wind (7.2%), solar (4.5%), geothermal, biomass, and other renewables (3.6%).

The historic trends contradict the conventional view, fossil generation has been declining, while renewables are gaining. According to the data, “The share of low carbon fuels (nuclear, hydro, wind & solar) peaked at 36% in 1995, coinciding with COP-1 [the first UN conference of parties].”

“Over the following 17 years, from 1996 to 2012, fossil fuels gained share, mainly due to the increased share of gas and the declining share of nuclear and hydro. As highly subsidized, expensive wind and solar became significant, this trend reversed.

“Despite this, and the hosting of twenty-seven COPs, the share of electricity generation by low carbon fuels in 2022 was roughly equivalent to the peak in 1995.”

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its Coal Market Update, inexpensive coal demand for power generation and steel making ”reached a new all-time high in 2022.” IEA added, “Coal trade in 2023 is heading back to 2019 volumes.”

IEA noted, “Despite lukewarm economic prospects, global coal consumption grew by 8% in 2022 to a record 8,634 BILLION metric ton.

The three largest producers – China, India, and Indonesia – each reached all-time highs in 2022.

Coal production was mainly boosted by China and India, which rapidly increased domestic production to mitigate exposure to high market prices after a first price spike in October 2021.”

IEA added, “Global coal production is expected to grow further in 2023, driven by an expected strong ramp-up of production in China, India, and Indonesia in the first six months of 2023, offsetting declines in the United States and the European Union.

Russian coal production is estimated to be back to normal levels in the first half of 2023.”

In a statement accompanying its report, the IEA stated, “by region, coal demand fell faster than previously expected in the first half of this year in the United States and the European Union — by 24% and 16%, respectively,

However, demand from the two largest consumers, China and India, grew by over 5% during the first half, more than offsetting all declines elsewhere.”

China is the coal heavyweight. 

Greenpeace East Asia recently reported from Beijing that China approved: “At least 50,400 MW of new coal power across China in the first six months of 2023.” 

These plants likely are ultra-super-critical, with high-efficiency pollution control systems to replace older inefficient plants.

China is also developing world-leading amounts of expensive wind and solar generation, but Greenpeace East Asia’s Gao Yuhe said, China's inexpensive coal focus would detract from building very expensive battery energy storage.

“We see a lot of new expensive wind and solar systems and a lot of inexpensive new coal plants.

Our major concern now, aside from the obvious emissions problem, very expensive energy storage remains sidelined, despite the key role it needs to play in the near future. which assumes fossil fuel will run out soon, instead of 200 years from now.

Building expensive renewable energy, but no even-more-expensive energy storage makes a lot of sense for poor countries like India and China,” Yuhe said.

OilPrice.com commented, “China is building coal-fired power plants at a record clip, as it tries to counter the effects of drought on hydropower production.”

The US and China get about 80% of their total energy from fossil.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-consumption-by-source-and...

China is also the hydro heavyweight, Asia’s largest producer, “accounting for 30% of global capacity.”

China “has recorded a 7.2% drop in output so far this year while India, the second largest producer, has seen production decline 5%.”

OilPrice.com adds, “China is not the only country whose hydropower sector has been hit by drought.

Electricity generation from hydro power sources has fallen quite dramatically in Europe (in 2021, well before Ukraine events),

In North America and Asia in 2023 compared to the corresponding period in 2022 with overall global hydro generation now 3% below the 2019-21 average.

Reduced supplies of non-emitting hydro power in these regions means, utilities, trying to keep the lights on, are increasingly deploying other sources of dispatchable power plants, such as coal and natural gas, to meet electricity demand.”

U.S. hydro from Nevada, Arizona, Washington, and Colorado had a 17% decline in hydropower production.

As Forbes observes, “In the U.S., coal demand has been on a downward trend for about 15 years.

There have been three significant drivers behind this decline.”

The first is horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking), which, starting in 2008 has revolutionized natural gas production.

The second is the rise of highly subsidized, expensive solar and wind power, driven largely by lower costs and government incentives at federal and state levels.

The third has been increased federal regulation/harassment of coal-fired power plants, including the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, which have driven up the costs of burning coal.

But these three US measures are totally useless regarding global warming compared what is happening in the rest of the world, because the US consumes less than 7% of the world’s coal production.

“China will continue to account for more than half the world’s coal use, with the power sector alone consuming one third of the worlds coal” .

Add in India and the global share rises to 70% “meaning China and India alone consume double the amount of coal as the rest of the world combined”

And in 2024 the“share of China, India and the Asean region is expected to reach 76%”

Coal production in China rose by 11% and by 12% in both India and Indonesia in 2022.

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APPENDIX 1

You can’t make the wind blow or the sun shine at night in the UK and New England

UK electricity loaded onto the grid this morning

https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

Wednesday, 16 August, 2023, at 06:25 BST

Wind 0.07 GW (0.29%)
Solar 0.00 GW (0.00%)
Coal 0.36 GW (1.48%)
CCGT 14.89 GW (61.18%)

A miserable result, despite investing billions of $$$.

Wind and solar are weather-dependent

Need I say more?

They are problem when they work, and even a bigger problem when they are not working

We could replace that evil fossil electricity at 06:25 BST, but it would require (14.89 GW + 0.36 GW) / (0.07 GW + 0.0 GW) = 217.9 times existing build-out of wind and solar.