Willem Post's Blog (686)

Cape Wind, started in 2001, 468 MW, turnkey capital cost $2.6 billion, $5550/kW, to be located south of Nantucket, highly visible to many multi-millionaires summering on the Island, has finally been cancelled as of 1 December 2017.

The negotiated Cape Wind power purchase agreement called for 18.7 c/kWh the first year, increasing at 3.5% per year for 20 years, to reach 37.2 c/kWh in the 20th year. These are wholesale prices. The utility mandated to buy that expensive…

Based on the plan of eliminating fossil fuel plants (they emit CO2 and particulates) and nuclear fuel plants (they are alleged to be dangerous) by 2050, the existing gas, nuclear, coal and oil generating plants would be decommissioned and no new ones would be built.

This would require huge build-outs of wind, solar, and storage systems, and increased electricity supply via external ties to adjacent grids.

The storage systems serve to cover wind and solar…

New England wind and solar electricity generation is much more expensive, c/kWh, than elsewhere in the US; wind electricity cost in the US south is even higher than in New England. See URLs and table 2.

Here is a partial list of the various subsidies for wind and solar that artificially lower their electricity costs. Those costs would be much higher without subsidies, and higher still with the addition of the costs of:

1) Peaking, filling-in, and balancing the…

Pumped storage hydro, PSH, is the largest-capacity form of grid energy storage available. As of 2017, the DOE Global Energy Storage Database reports, PSH accounts for over 96% of all tracked storage installations worldwide, with a total installed nameplate capacity of over 168 GW. The round-trip …

As part of COP21, the US offered* a pledge to reduce emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. The emission reduction would be at a 14% more rapid rate during the 2015 - 2025 period, than during the 2005 - 2015 period, which was made easier, because it benefitted from the reduced burning of coal and increased burning of natural gas and generous subsidies that are scheduled to decrease in future years. See below table with 2025 targets based on EPA data from Page ES-10 of…

The four largest CO2eq emitters are shown in the below table. The world CO2eq emissions, all sources, is based on 50 billion metric ton CO2eq in 2012. See URLs.

http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india.html

https://www.carbonbrief.org/paris-2015-tracking-country-climate-pledges…

Germany, a major industrial country, is a leader in renewable energy generation. However, Germany made a significant mistake. Germany decided to phase out its nuclear plants, which produce low-cost electricity that has near-zero CO2/kWh, instead of replacing the plants. Germany continued to the use of lignite, a soft coal (low-Btu/lb.) coal, and hard coal. As a result, the CO2eq emissions have not decreased for the past 8 years.

Germany is headed for a clear failure to meet…

Various government entities, eager to show their greenness regarding global warming, passed laws to subsidize renewable power, so-called “green power”, as if there is such a thing. Some governments even passed laws that declare hydropower as non-renewable, but, on reflection of its implications, reversed themselves and passed laws that declare hydropower IS renewable, as recently did Vermont’s legislature.

President Andrew Jackson, Democrat, populist: “When government…

This article describes the build-outs of nuclear, wind and solar required by 2050 to make progress towards the IPCC temperature goals of 2.0 C above pre-industrial by 2100 or 1.5 C above pre-industrial by 2100. Estimates of world and US electricity generation are shown. See URLs.

 …

The world’s fossil fuel consumption has been about 78% of all primary energy* for the past 10 years, despite several trillion dollars of investments in RE systems. Current coal consumption is about 8000 million metric ton/y. China and India use about 60%.

* The energy from wells, mines, forests, etc., is called source energy, less exploration, extraction, processing and transport energy = primary energy to power plants, buildings, vehicles, industry,…

The man-made world CO2eq, energy related, were only about 36.183/53.4 = 68% of all manmade sources, in 2016.

Much of current efforts to reduce emissions have been energy-related, as in Germany, which has had the same CO2eq emissions during the 2009 - 2017 period, while charging about 225 billion euros to household electric bills during these 9 years, because it is closing nuclear plants and using about the same quantity of coal each year.

The…

Recently the media reported wind and solar are competitive with coal and natural gas for generating electricity. The Wall Street Journal published an article “Economic impact of wind farms is changing the political dynamics of renewable energy”.

It is of major importance to understand, financial entities, such as Bloomberg and Lazard, hype wind and solar, because they want to promote their financial management services for high-net-worth investors, who are looking to shelter…

This article describes the current global CO2eq emission from all sources, not just energy-related, and the COP21/IPCC goals regarding reducing CO2eq during the 2017 - 2100 period to avoid excessive global warming above pre-industrial (the 1861 - 1880 period). See URL of The Emissions Gap Report 2017.…

During the past 420,000 years, various forces combined to cause 4 major glaciation and thawing cycles. The world temperature was about 2 - 3 C above and about 8 - 9.5 C below, the reference value of the past 10,000 years. The past four cycles indicate, the world, surrounded by outer space at near absolute zero, has a hard time warming up above reference, but a much easier time cooling down below reference, i.e., computer model global warming predictions of 4.3 C above pre-industrial likely…

Should the US stay with COP21 to reduce CO2 emissions or not. The real issues are about international trade, reducing the US trade deficit, improving the US debtor nation status, bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, and paying for world peacekeeping. The US would be less competitive in world markets if:

- The US invested more in renewable energy systems, such as expensive offshore wind. It would increase its cost structure.

- The US continues to overinvest in…

Recently the media reported wind and solar are competitive with coal and natural gas for generating electricity. The Wall Street Journal published an article “Economic impact of wind farms is changing the political dynamics of renewable energy”.

It is of major importance to understand, financial entities, such as Bloomberg and Lazard, hype wind and solar, because they want to promote their financial management services for high-net-worth investors, who are looking to shelter…

First, I want to commend John Lippman for writing on of the best energy articles in the Valley News. The article is well organized and provides much information that likely was not known to many VN readers.

http://www.vnews.com/Elizabeth-Mine-Solar-Array-Sheds-Light-on-Economics-of-Electricity-12760723

Brightfields Development is developing a 7 MW-DC solar…

This article shows the following:

- Gross state product growth was 13.08% faster than state budget growth, a desirable condition, during the Douglas years,

- GSP growth was 45.5% slower than state budget growth, an undesirable condition, during the Shumlin years.

- The state government needs to decrease the burden of taxes, fees and surcharges on the anemic private sector.

See attached spreadsheet with sources of…

TransCanada, TC, purchased 13 hydro power plants, total capacity 560 MW, on the Connecticut and Deerfield Rivers from bankrupt USGen New England for $505 million in 2005. Almost all of the plants are located in New Hampshire. All plants and their drainage areas are shown on an enlarged map. See URL.

The current Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FERC, licenses of the Wilder, Bellows Falls and Vernon Plants expire in 2018. The renewal process takes about 5…

The original SPEED program, started in July 2010, was repealed and replaced by Act 56 of 2015, the Renewable Portfolio Standard, RPS, act, which requires 55% of utility retail electricity sales to be from renewable sources by 2017; 75% by 2032. The SPEED program replacement is called Standard Offer, SO, as described in 30 VSA 8005b.

SO projects, 2.2 MW or less:

Those projects have a cap of 127.5 MW by 2022; about 60,850 kW, all energy sources, has been…