GERMANY NOT MEETING CO2eq EMISSION REDUCTION GOALS

Germany, a major industrial country, is a leader in renewable energy generation. However, Germany made a significant mistake. Germany decided to phase out its nuclear plants, which produce low-cost electricity that has near-zero CO2/kWh, instead of replacing the plants. Germany continued to the use of lignite, a soft coal (low-Btu/lb.) coal, and hard coal. As a result, the CO2eq emissions have not decreased for the past 8 years.

 

Germany is headed for a clear failure to meet its 2020 and 2030 CO2eq reduction targets, according to calculations by the country’s environment ministry. Without further action, Germany’s CO2eq emissions will only be 31.7% to 32.5% below 1990 levels, an internal environment ministry paper seen by the Clean Energy Wire shows.

 

Given the official target of reducing CO2eq by 40%, the ministry warns that a failure of this magnitude would constitute a “significant blow to Germany’s climate policy”, and would amount to “a disaster for Germany’s international reputation as a climate leader”.

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/10/11/germany-miss-climate-ta...

 

German Electricity Consumption: Germany has a goal to have 80% of its final electricity consumption (to user meters) from RE sources by 2050, per Die Energiewende. The RE goals are:

 

Table 2/Year	% RE of final electricity consumption
2020	35
2030	50
2040	65
2050	80

 

Thus, about 20% of final electricity consumption could continue to be from fossil fuels, such as natural gas, in 2050. See table 2.

 

The RE percent of German final electricity consumption was 30.8%, 32.7%, and 35.1% in the first half of 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energiewende_in_Germany

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-consumpt...

Energy Conversion Flow Chart from Source to Meter: Grid operators often provide the real-time intensity of CO2eq emissions on their websites. They calculate the CO2eq/kWh and CO2eq/y for each generator, based on:

- The heat rate curve of each generator connected to the grid, which shows Btu/MWh versus percent of rated output.

- Monitoring the output fed to the grid of each generator on a real-time basis.

 

By summing the CO2eq of all generators, including peaking units and synchronous standby units (while in this mode they do not feed into the grid), the total grid CO2eq and grid g CO2eq/kWh, is determined for each year and published in reports. Ignored are:

1) The plant self use energy, about 4% of the energy fed to the plant.

2) The energy required for exploration, extraction, processing and transportation before the fuel is fed into the plant.

- If a grid has hydro plants with storage reservoirs there will be pumping losses; round-trip loss about 20%.

- Trading electricity involves energy losses and the imported electricity may not be as clean as the exported electricity.

- The energy left over is transmitted and distributed and metered as medium voltage or low voltage.

- Table 2A shows the CO2eq/kWh of the various steps.

- The bold values in table 2A are directly from referenced URLs.

 

	Table 2A	2016	2016	2016
		TWh	g CO2eq/kWh	million Mt
1	Gross generation; energy conversion; URL No. 1	650.6	460	299
2	Upstream uses various energy sources*, 10%			33
3	Self-use loss, 4% of gross generation	-26.0
5	Net generation (fed to grid), 1 - 3; URL No. 2	624.6	532	332
6	Step up to HV, 1% loss	-6.2
7	Pumped hydro storage loss*	-16.0
8	Net exports (Exports - Imports); URL No. 1	-53.7
9	HV transmission loss, 2% of net generation	-12.6
10	Electricity consumption; URL No. 3	536.0	619	332
11	Step down to Medium Voltage, 1% loss	-5.4
12	Grid CO2 for MV users	530.7	626	332
13	Step down to Low Voltage, 1% loss	-5.3
14	Grid CO2 for LV users	525.4	632	332

 

* Electric pumps pump water into upper hydro reservoirs, from which it is later discharged to hydro plants to generate electricity. That process has a round-trip pumping loss.

* Upstream CO2eq adds about 10% to the combustion CO2eq of gross generation by plants

* Upstream includes emissions due to exploration, extraction, processing and transportation.

 

1) https://www.ag-energiebilanzen.de/4-1-Home.html

2) https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-greenhouse-gas-...

3) https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-consumpt...

 

NOTE: Regarding plug-in hybrids and plug-in electric vehicles in Germany, CO2eq = 632 g/kWh should have been used in 2016 for analysis for only the driving CO2eq, as in this article. The embedded CO2eq is separate issue.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/comparison-of-energy-ef...

German Primary Energy Consumption: Germany has a goal to have 60% of its primary energy consumption from RE sources by 2050, per the Energiewende. Table 3 shows the German goals and compares them with Denmark and Vermont.

 

Table 3/RE goals	Primary energy	Elect’l prod’n	Primary energy	Household elect rate
	% of total	% by 2050	% by 2050
Denmark 2015	27.2	100	100	30 eurocent/kWh
Vermont 2016	16.5	90	90	18 c/kWh
Germany 2016	12.6	80	60	29 eurocent/kWh

Germany 2030 Energiewende Goals: Germany’s CO2eq emission goals (from all sources) for 2030 are shown in table 4. See URL.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-greenhouse-gas-...  

 

Table 4/Year	1990	2014	2030	2030
CO2eq	MMt	MMt	MMt	% reduction
Energy	466	358	175-183	61-62
Buildings	209	119	70-72	66-67
Transport	163	160	95-98	40-42
Industry	283	181	140-143	49-51
Agriculture	88	72	58-61	31-34
Other	39	12	5	87
Total	1248	902	543-562	55-56

Germany Not Reaching CO2eq Goals: Germany’s CO2eq emissions (from all sources) are about the same as in 2009. As part of the Energiewende, Germany is aiming to have:

 

- 80% of its electricity from RE by 2050

- 60% of all primary energy from RE by 2050

- 80% less CO2eq than in 1990, by 2050

 

Germany will not meet its CO2eq reduction targets for 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, unless it immediately starts phasing out all coal power plants, which produced 261.5/648.3 = 40.3% of net electricity generation in 2016.

http://www.ag-energiebilanzen.de/4-1-Home.html

https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/klima-energie/energieversorgu...

NOTE: This URL shows 332 million Mt from 575.2 TWh in 2016, or 332/575.2 = 577 g CO2/kWh. See table 5.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-greenhouse-gas-...

https://www.platts.com/latest-news/electric-power/london/german-201...

 

NOTE: In Germany, the GWP for the electricity mix remained stable with 611 g CO2-eq./kWh in 2013 compared to 606 g CO2-eq./kWh in 2012. The 611 corroborates the 604 value in table 5. See page 17 of URL.

http://www.gabi-software.com/fileadmin/GaBi_Databases/GaBi_Database...

 

Table 5/Year	All sources CO2eq	Below 1990	CO2 Elect	Below 1990	CO2 Elect
	Million Mt	%	Million Mt	%	g/kWh
1990 actual	1252		427
2000 actual	1045		358
2009 actual	908	28	345
2010 actual	943		357
2013 actual	942		367		604
2014 actual	903		349
2015 actual	907		337
2016 actual	909	28	332	22	577
2017 actual	905	28	319
2020 target	751	40
2030 target	562	55
2040 target	375	70
2050 target	250	80

German Not Reaching Primary Energy Goals:Regarding the consumption of thermal energy for buildings, industry and commerce, and fuels for transportation, there has been so little change that the overall primary energy consumption from RE has increased to 13.1% in 2017. See goals in table 6 and URL.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-consumpt...

https://energytransition.org/2016/01/can-germany-reach-its-renewabl...;

NOTE: Primary energy is a lump of coal or a tank of gas; final energy is the electricity from that coal or the motive energy from that gasoline. However, no official estimate has yet been produced for final energy. The calculation is abstract; we know how much electricity was generated, but the calculation of final energy for all the heating systems around the country and for motor fuel used in the country’s more than 40 million vehicles is based on certain assumptions, such as the average efficiency of heating systems and vehicle gas mileage.

 

Table 6/Year	Final energy	Primary energy
RE	%	%
2010	10.9	9.9
2014	13.5	11.6
2015	15.3	12.6
2016	?	12.6
2017	?	13.1
2020 goal	18.0
2050 goal	60.0

Germany Disconnecting GDP and CO2eq Emissions: Germany’s CO2eq decreased from 1252 MMt in 1990 to 1045 MMt in 2000 mainly due to closing down inefficient plants in East Germany. Germany did mange to have near constant CO2eq for 9 years during which GDP increased 3263/2460 = 32.6%, a remarkable achievement; population increased as well.

As far a nature is concerned, there was no positive achievement at all, because of the environmental damage, and damage to flora and fauna, caused by the increase in population and GDP.

 

Table 7/Year	CO2eq in MMt	GDP in Euro
2000	1045	2116
2006	1000	2393
2007	973	2513
2008	975	2561
2009	908	2460
2010	943	2580
2011	920	2703
2012	925	2758
2013	942	2826
2014	903	2932
2015	907	3043
2016	909	3144
2017	905	3263

APPENDIX 1

US CO2 Emissions Decreased Due to Less Coal and More Natural Gas: The URL shows the unusually rapid decrease of CO2 emissions during 2015 and 2016. Such a rapid decrease likely will not occur during the next few years, as natural gas prices likely will increase due to exports, and as changes in EPA rules likely will cause fewer coal plants to close. A “cleaner” US grid would mean EVs would compare more favorable with E10 vehicles regarding emissions. The US grid is “cleaner” than the German grid, on a source energy basis. See Table 2B.

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/mer.pdf

 

Table 2B
Year	2013	2016
CO2, MMt	2053	1821
To meters, TWh	3845.38	3845.38
kg CO2/kWh	0.5339	0.4736
lb/kg	2.2046	2.2046
lb CO2/kWh, PE basis	1.1770	1.0440
Upstream factor	1.08	1.08
lb CO2/kWh, SE basis	1.2712	1.1275
g/lb	454	454
g CO2/kWh, SE basis	577	512

APPENDIX 2

Comparison of Denmark, Vermont and Germany: Germany's goals are much less extreme than Vermont’s goal of "90% RE of all primary energy by 2050".

 

It would be less onerous, if Vermont had a goal of “40% RE of all primary energy by 2050”.

Vermont had 16.5% RE of all primary energy in 2016. See table 3.

 

Germany and Denmark, both with high levels of RE electricity generation, charge most of the extra costs to household electric bills by means of various taxes, fees and surcharges. As the result, both have the highest household electric rates in Europe. France, 80% nuclear, has one of the lowest household rates, about 15 c/kWh. See table 3.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-s-90-percent-re...

APPENDIX 3

- Source energy is the energy taken from coalmines, oil and gas wells, and forests for conversion to electricity and heat.

- Primary energy = source energy - energy used for exploration, extraction, processing and transport of fuels (coal, oil, gas, biofuels, wastes, etc.) to users, such as fuel to electricity generating plants, process plants, buildings, vehicles, etc. That means it has not been subjected to any conversion or transformation process.

 

APPENDIX 4

Denmark is in a unique situation with plentiful onshore and offshore winds, and large nearby grids to balance export excess electricity in case of stronger winds.

 

Vermont has no such wind uniqueness. Vermont has medium wind conditions and poor solar conditions, which means high wind and solar electricity costs/kWh, which would act as a wet blanket on the anemic, near-zero, real-growth Vermont Economy. See URLs.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-true-cost-of-solar-...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-true-cost-of-wind-e...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-speed-renewable...

 

For Vermont to reach “90% RE of all primary energy by 2050”, the best approach would be to significantly increase purchases of hydro electricity from Hydro Quebec, which is steady, 24/7/365, low-cost (5 - 7 c/kWh, much less than wind and solar), and has very low CO2/kWh (less than wind and solar). Here are some URLs about increased hydro energy from Hydro Quebec.

 

http://vtdigger.wpengine.com/2015/01/28/utilities-want-flexibility-...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eversource-hydro-qu-bec-offer-170400...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/increased-canadian-hydr...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/more-energy-from-hydro-...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/gmp-refusing-to-buy-add...