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ISO-NE REPORT OF 2021 ECONOMIC STUDY: FUTURE GRID RELIABILITY STUDY PHASE 1
DEEP DIVE SUMMARY OF THE ISO-NE REPORT
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/new-england-future-grid-study-iso/628622/
LIFE WITHOUT OIL
Life without oil means many products that are made with oil, such as the hundreds listed below, would need to be provided by wind and solar and hydro.
Folks, including Biden's attendants, wanting to get rid of fossil fuels, such as crude oil, better start doing some rethinking.
The above also applies to natural gas, which is much preferred by many industries
If you do not have abundant low-cost energy, you cannot have modern industrial economies.
APPENDIX 1
These articles contain significant information regarding wind, solar and grid-scale battery systems
GRID-SCALE BATTERY SYSTEMS IN NEW ENGLAND TO COUNTERACT SHORTFALL OF ONE-DAY WIND/SOLAR LULL
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-systems-in-new-england
COLD WEATHER OPERATION IN NEW ENGLAND DECEMBER 24, 2017 TO JANUARY 8, 2018
ANALYSIS OF WIND AND SOLAR ENERGY LULLS AND ENERGY STORAGE IN GERMANY
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-energy-lulls-energy-storage-in-germany
IRELAND FUEL AND CO2 REDUCTIONS DUE TO WIND ENERGY LESS THAN CLAIMED
BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital-costs-losses-and-aging
HIGH COSTS OF WIND, SOLAR, AND BATTERY SYSTEMS IN US NORTHEAST
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/high-costs-of-wind-solar-and-battery-systems
APPENDIX 2
These articles explain a lot about the world-wide “Climate Crisis” scam, based on highly compromised surface station measurements, which typically read HIGH.
Climate scientists SUBJECTIVELY adjust the readings for use in their SUBJECTIVE computerized-temperature-calculation programs, which are used in the reports of IPCC, etc., for scare-mongering purposes.
New Surface Stations Report Released – It’s ‘worse than we thought’
Weather- Just how does it happen?
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/weather-just-how-does-it-happen
A summary of the results of three “Physics of the Earth’s Atmosphere” papers, which were submitted for peer review at the Open Peer Review Journal.
https://globalwarmingsolved.com/2013/11/19/summary-the-physics-of-the-earths-atmosphere-papers-1-3/
APPENDIX 3
Satellites and balloons measure temperatures of the Troposphere, which starts at ground level, and has an average height of 59,000 ft at the tropics, 56,000 ft at the middle latitudes, and 20,000 ft at the poles. Above those levels starts the Stratosphere.
Balloons directly measure temperatures. Satellites measure radiation, from which temperatures are calculated.
Both consistently measure much lower temperatures than the average of 102 computer-generated graphs.
See Appendix 2 and 3
The data in the below images is for a 43-y period.
There is global warming, but it is not anywhere near as much as scare-mongers are claiming.
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-systems-in-new-england
1) Objective satellite and balloon temperatures increased from 0.00 to 0.5 C, or, or 0.116 C/decade
2) Subjective computer-generated temperatures increased from 0.00 to 1.20 C; or 0.28 C/decade, about 2.7 TIMES AS FAST
The temperature data by satellites and balloons are more accurate than land-based measurements.
See Appendix 2 and URL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UAH_satellite_temperature_dataset
Satellite measurements are made many times during every day and systematically cover almost the entire world; +/- 85-degree latitude.
The satellite data is vastly more complete, and accurate than would be gathered by ground stations. (See Appendix 2)
Balloon measurements, made on a sampling basis, are vastly less complete than satellite measurements, but they serve as a useful crosscheck on the satellite measurements.
NOTE: Behind the 102 computer graphs are hundreds of organizations that likely receive a significant part of their revenues from governments and subsidy-receiving wind, solar, battery, etc., businesses.
The livelihood and career prospects of the people creating these graphs is more secure, if they aim high, rather than low.
A more detailed view of satellite temperatures.
APPENDIX 4
Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) and also a member of the CO2 Coalition. Sheahen and the Coalition are collaborating on a brief.
SEPP’s October 8 newsletter contains a summary of a major 2021 paper by Happer and co-author William van Wijngaarden that completely undermines the fake “science” the IPCC and EPA used to support the case of climate alarm. See URL
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2021/03/WPotency.pdf?x45936
Sheahen specifically discusses the efforts of Professors William van Wijngaarden and William Happer in their pioneering work in calculating the real-world Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) of the five most common Green-House Gases (GHGs).
Sheahan explains why the approach used by IPCC is faulty, but nonetheless used by its followers, such as the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the EPA.
These faulty methods lead to great exaggeration of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide, methane, and other minor greenhouse gases.
Sheahan shows the stunning agreement between the calculations of van Wijngaarden and Happer (W & H) with satellite measurements (and balloon measurements) of outgoing infrared radiation emitted by the earth to space . . .
Sheahan claims, because of the exceptionally good agreement between observational data and the calculations of W & H, we can conclude the W&H model has been validated.
The W&H model embodies the scientific method, i.e., it is reasonable to use it to study other hypothetical cases.
It is not possible to do so with IPCC models, which have never achieved agreement with observations.
See Appendix 3
The gist of the H&W work is the greenhouse effect of CO2 in the atmosphere is almost entirely saturated, such that any additional CO2 can have almost no additional warming effect.
Here is a chart prepared by Sheahan to illustrate the H&W results.
As atmospheric CO2 increases, say from 380 to 420 ppm; the 40 ppm increase has about 0.05C warming effect.
As atmospheric CO2 increases, say from 20 to 60 ppm; the 40 ppm increase has about a 0.5C warming effect.
Dan McKay
Mahatma Gandhi once said, “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”
Oct 9, 2022
Willem Post
Fuel Oil Minimum Storage Capacity
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cold-weather-operation...
Fuel oil used by power plants during the DECEMBER 24, 2017, TO JANUARY 8, 2018, cold period was = (1,303,415 MWh/0.50, average efficiency) x (3,412,000 Btu/MWh x 1 gallon/140,000 Btu, LHV = 63.532 million gallons
The storage capacity should exceed maximum use by at least 20%, i.e., about 80 million gallons NEAR POWER PLANTS.
Maximum use likely occurs during longer cold periods.
It should be abundantly clear, the capacities of NE strategic oil and gas storage systems should be increased, to ensure reliable delivery of electricity service, including for future heat pumps and electric vehicles.
That electricity should be generated by highly efficient, oil/gas-fired, on-demand, CCGT plants, especially during likely combinations of events, that would stress the NE grid.
Wind and solar would be totally unreliable during such stressed conditions.
Battery storage would be grossly too expensive during relatively rare stressed conditions.
New England
By the way, all of this, including rolling blackouts at ZUB-ZERO temperatures, and a lack of gas and oil for space heating, applies to New England, if:
1) New York State keeps obstructing new gas pipelines from Pennsylvania to New England; THIS SHOULD BE LEGALLY FORBIDDEN AS AN UNCONSTITUTIONAL INTERFERENCE OF INTER-STATE COMMERCE, and
2) The New England oil, gas and coal storage capacities near power plants are not increased by at least 100% to ensure RELIABLE ELECTRICAL SERVICE IN WINTER, WHICH WOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT, IF UNCERTAIN, MOTHER-NATURE, WEATHER-DEPENDENT WIND AND SOLAR WERE FURTHER EXPANDED, AS THE US IS AIMING TO BLINDLY COPY THE DISASTROUS EUROPEAN SCENARIO
Oct 19, 2022
Willem Post
Trump told the Germans, they were too dependent on Russian gas, in 2018.
They pooh-poohed and laughed at him.
The Germans are not laughing now, as they face being uncompetitive and de-industrialization on a massive scale.
Europe made a natural gas switch to other sources, such as the US, etc., because of the predictable blowback of its premeditated US/EU sanctions against Russia, due to the Ukraine events.
Europe had foolishly supported the US-instigated/financed, color revolution, in Ukraine, in 2014, which violently ousted a democratically elected leader.
"Fuck the EU" Ms. Nuland, Assistant Secretary of State, a former Ukrainian, was one of the on-site rooters of the Coup d’Etat.
See URL
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-plot-is-thickening...
Opportunities for the US/UK/NATO to:
1) Turn Ukraine, and most of East Europe, into an armed camp, by moving military infrastructures and personnel to Russia’s borders, to "bark at the gates of Russia", per the Pope.
2) Weaken Russia with sanctions, that backfired, mostly onto Europe, and benefitted the US LNG producers/exporters and LNG carrier owners, while
3) Biden's posse of Socialists is:
- More concerned with Ukraine’s borders, than our own US southern border
- Exporting our oil, gas and coal, which is contributing to 8+% inflation.
Those policies will back-fire, and take away the ill-gotten control by Dem/Progs of the US government, in November 2022.
4) Use foreign-financed NGOs to foster unrest and color revolutions to get control of Belarus (big fertilizer/potash exporter) and Kazakhstan (big oil/gas exporter); the attempted regime changes were unsuccessful.
5) Use Ukraine to stonewall Russia regarding the Minsk accords, for 8 years, while:
- Building up the Ukraine army with NATO weaponry
- Neo-Nazi "army personnel" were performing a punishing genocide of about 12,000 Dombas separatists, barely reported by the US/UK/EU media.
Kiev's government, led by neo-NAZI-nationalists, loaded with all sorts of NATO weapons, are ruining Ukraine, because they did not want to give "autonomy-while-being-part-of-Ukraine" to the Dombas, which is populated almost entirely by Russian-speakers, who, to their surprise, became, de facto, "Ukrainian" without being asked, who have been living in the Dombas, and elsewhere, for hundreds of years.
Europe is now outsourcing its natural gas deliveries to the US, which is charging 4 times for its LNG, than Russia was charging for its pipeline gas!!
It is highly likely, the US/UK/NATO blew up Russia’s Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines to eliminate any future low-cost competition, and to prevent Germany from making a gas deal with Russia.
Short-sighted Europeans Screwed Themselves Big-time
Europeans are burning their own trash, and cutting trees in the forests to stay warm
How good is that for the environment?
Europeans are finding expensive wind, solar and battery policies, made more expensive by high inflation, are unaffordable at high oil, gas and coal prices
Europe Teetering on Economic Ruin.
Energy-intensive factories and smelters are being shut down, many of them permanently.
The UK now has the highest electricity bills in Europe; previously RE mavens Denmark and Germany shared those honors.
According to a report released last week by the British government, business bankruptcies in the UK are now at their highest level since the 2009 financial crisis."
- China halted all resales of LNG sourced from Russian gas.
- The EU's sanctions on Russian oil will shut down Russian oil delivery to Europe in just over a month.
- Russia will sell its oil for rubles to friendly countries, because dollars and euros are worthless to Russia, because of pre-meditated US/UK/EU sanctions
- The Financial Times is reporting the UK’s National Grid warned British households to prepare for blackouts between 4 pm and 7 pm on "really, really cold" weekdays in January and February.
EU Sanctions are an "Economic Jonestown."
No wonder US Climate Jacobins are celebrating the economic and human devastation as winter closes in.
Meanwhile, US LNG shipments into Europe are pricing at 4x above Atlantic Basin prices -- a very nice payday.
While New England faces gas shortages due to New York State bans of pipeline expansion and the Jones Act.
Eventually There will be Other Options.
Erdogan agreed to study creating a gas hub in Turkey for blending Russian, Azerbaijan and other gas for shipment into the Balkans and southern Europe.
Europe is Toast for at Least the Next Five Years.
EU leaders’ first priority regarding energy is creating the appearance of being green, by not signing low-cost, long-term contracts for pipeline gas from Russia.
Russia responded by continuing the delivery of gas in accordance with signed contracts, and by not selling gas to the EU spot market, where prices have soared to unprecedented highs.
The EU had to implement the US pre-meditated sanctions on Russia, to protect its $15 trillion of investments in the US, and its huge annual balance of payments surpluses with the US.
Oct 22, 2022