Not That We Didn't Already Know, But Going Green KILLS!!!

The Green New Deal, being promoted worldwide, is causing famine, inflation, trade problems . . . . you name it . . . issues that are confounding and have to be reversed.

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Comment by Willem Post on April 23, 2022 at 5:43am

BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

 

This article has seven parts

 

PART 1

 

Turnkey Capital Costs of Site-specific, Custom-designed, Utility-grade, Grid-scale Battery Systems

 

Tesla Megapacks

 

Tesla is at the forefront of providing the world with lithium-ion battery systems, that include frontend power electronics, the batteries, and backend power electronics, and systems for battery heating and cooling, as needed, in standardized enclosures.

 

The Megapack ratings shown in the table, in bold, fit into a standard container W, 286” x D, 85” x H, 99”

If multiple Megapacks are purchased, the $/kWh becomes less. See URL

https://www.tesla.com/megapack/design

 

The 2022 Megapack pricing is shown in the table

The 2022 Megapack pricing is 24.5% greater than the 2021 pricing. See URL

 

The 2025 Megapack price likely will be much higher, due to increased inflation rates, increased interest rates, and increased materials prices, such as of Tungsten, Cobalt, and Lithium.

 

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-03-21_15-28-4...

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/tesla-hikes-megapack-prices-c...

 

NOTE: After looking at several aerial photos of large-scale battery systems with many Megapacks, it is clear many other items of equipment are shown, other than the Tesla supply, such as step-down/step-up transformers, connections to the grid, land, access roads, fencing, security, lighting, insurance, i.e., the cost of the Tesla supply is only one part of the total battery system cost on a site.

 

NOTE: PG&E, a California utility, put in operation a 182.5 MW/730 MWh battery system, at a turnkey cost of about $330 million, based on 2020/2021 pricing. See URL

https://www.10news.com/news/national/pg-es-tesla-megapack-battery-i...

 

Purchase

Capacity

Energy

Duration

Location

Cap Cost

Price

Units

MW

MWh

h

State

$million

$/kWh

1

1.295

2.570

2

Vermont

1.842

717

2

2.590

5.140

2

Vermont

2.808

546

3

3.885

7.710

2

Vermont

4.189

543

1

0.770

3.070

4

Vermont

1.566

510

2

1.540

6.140

4

Vermont

2.957

482

3

2.310

9.210

4

Vermont

4.409

479

 

Turnkey Capital Cost Surveys of Grid-Scale Battery System by EIA

The Energy Information Agency, EIA, has collected turnkey capital costs and operating data of the energy sector for many decades.

 

The first EIA report regarding the turnkey capital costs of various types of grid-scale battery systems, not just Lithium-ion, was issued in 2017, and covered battery system in use for all of 2015

 

The most recent EIA report was issued in 2021, and covered battery systems in use for all of 2019

 

The trend of the data revealed, the turnkey capital cost decreased after 2015, as shown by the table and image.

The EIA projects turnkey capital costs at about $500/kWh in 2025, based on historic cost trends.

 

Power Delivery Duration: The average duration of battery discharge increased from 0.5 h in 2015 to 3.2 h in 2019, because they are increasingly used to absorb midday solar output bulges, and to deliver about 80% of that electricity during peak hours in the late-afternoon/early-evening.

 

EIA 2020 Report, which includes systems in operation during all of 2018

 

The EIA graph, based on surveys of battery system users, shows slowly decreasing costs after 2018

The average price was $625/kWh in 2018

It appears, the range of values likely would become $900/kWh to 450/kWh in 2025.

The values would be near the higher end of the range in New England. 

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45596


EIA 2021 Report, which includes systems in operation during all of 2019

 

The US average turnkey capital cost of battery systems was about $589/kWh, delivered as AC, in 2019. 

The average price decreased from $625 in 2018, to $589 in 2019, or a $36/kWh decrease

The average price would decrease to $500 in 2025, if the annual decreases were about $15. See image

The NE average turnkey capital cost for such systems was about $700/kWh, delivered as AC, in 2019

 

Those average prices will not decrease, unless major technical breakthroughs are discovered, and subsequently implemented on a large scale.


See table 3 and page 18 of EIA URL

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/electricity/batterystorage/pdf...

 

Such grid-scale battery systems operate 8766 hours per year

Annual capacity factor is about 0.5, i.e., a working throughput of about 50% of rated throughput

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/economics-of-utility-s... 

 

Table 1 combines the data of five EIA reports

 

NOTE: The EIA projected cost is $500/kWh for 2025, but that value likely will not be attainable, due to increased inflation rates, increased interest rates, and increased materials prices.

Future EIA Reports

 

EIA 2022 Report for 2020 likely would show the decreasing capital cost trend of the 2019 report.

EIA 2023 Report for 2021, and reports for subsequent years, likely would show an increasing capital cost trend, due to increased inflation rates, increased interest rates, and increased materials prices, especially with lithium-ion battery systems becoming a significant part of a year's mix.

 

NOTE: Various financial services entities, such as Bloomberg and Lazard, issue self-serving reports that project much lower battery system costs/kWh, delivered as AC, than the EIA. Those entities tend to underestimate battery costs to avoid chasing away their wealthy clients who are seeking tax shelters, which would adversely affect their financial services business. It would be prudent to ignore those reports.

 

Table 1/Battery system turnkey cost

Range

Duration

Average

Year

 $/kWh as AC

hour

 $/kWh as AC

2015

 2500 to 1750

0.5

 2102

2016

 2800 to 750

1.5

 1417

2017

 1500 to 700

1.8

 755

2018

 1250 to 500

2.4

 625

2019

1050 to 475

3.2

589

2025

 900 to 450

 

 500

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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Sign up today and lend your voice and presence to the steadily rising tide that will soon sweep the scourge of useless and wretched turbines from our beloved Maine countryside. For many of us, our little pieces of paradise have been hard won. Did the carpetbaggers think they could simply steal them from us?

We have the facts on our side. We have the truth on our side. All we need now is YOU.

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

 -- Mahatma Gandhi

"It's not whether you get knocked down: it's whether you get up."
Vince Lombardi 

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

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