Comment

Comment by Art Brigades on February 22, 2019 at 12:42pm

It's difficult to understand why so many people are hung up about "where the power goes."

Yes, Power Purchase Agreements (PPA), the PUC/legislature mandated contracts for southern New England state clean energy procurements, have been the driver for almost all the 400 wind turbines in Maine. But New England is one grid, with imports and exports daily at several interchanges with New York and Canada. While ISO-NE is losing several thousand MW of base load capacity, and the ISO-NE has been warning about reliability for years, and NECEC purports to mitigate those losses, it shouldn't concern us where the power is "shipped."  

Wherever the HQ energy is being procured within the ISO-NE grid, it can help suppress price, but also supress the "demand" for Maine wind projects. Combine the NECEC PPA with southern New England's newfound affinity for offshore wind and nuclear, and Mainers fighting wind blight and air pollution have reasons to be encouraged. 

Mr. Post said:

If Maine connects its grid with a 1000 MW HVDC line to the H-Q grid system, then it could negotiate a 20-y contract at about 6 c/kWh.

ALL THAT ELECTRICITY SHOULD STAY IN MAINE.

IT SHOULD NO BE SENT TO MASSACHUSETTS.

MASSACHUSETTS IS BUILDING 1600 MW OF OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES SOUTH OF MARTHA's VINEYARD.

MASSACHUSETTS INTENDS TO KEEP ALL THAT ELECTRICITY FOR MASSACHUSETTS

OK Willem, good point, but are we really concerned about that?  Starting in 2015, Maine became and has continued to be a net importer of electricity (as Vermont has been since closing its nuke). But that doesn't mean Maine is desperate for new generation.  In a number largely unchanged since the Maine Yankee era, we have over 4000 MW of generation capacity in Maine, about 4 times our typical load. This ratio often leads people to erroneously call Maine a net exporter. We are not. 

In 2002 Maine generation was 22.5 million MWH and our consumption was 11.4 million MWH.  

In 2017 Maine generation was 8.3 million MWH while our consumption was 8.5 million MWH.

The Wyman Oil Plant is our biggest plant, with 600 - 850 MW of capacity depending on whether they restart their one sidelined unit. Wyman is a fast-ramp plant, unlike our modern fleet of combined-cycle gas plants, so despite its status as a polluter it brings value to the grid as a peaking plant that doesn't suck up scarce peak natural gas. Even operating below 2% capacity factor, Wyman must be a cash cow for its owner, FPL.

Maine built several natural gas (NG) plants starting in the late 1990s to replace and double the lost capacity of Maine Yankee. A few years ago, 60% of Maine generation was from NG.  Last year NG had steadily declined by threefold to just 20% of Maine generation. Not only are those modern plants way underutilized, life is good for them because they get paid millions to sit there like Andy Griffith and Barney Fife with their feet up, being ready. (The excessive capacity payments they receive are in large part necessitated by New England's recent - and hopefully passing - obsession with building wind generation. Hence the cost of those capacity payments can effectively be added to the "cost" of wind energy.)  

Peruse 2018 FERC & EIA data to see how much money (and how little work) Maine's biggest power plants get:

			EIA	EIA	ENERGY	ENERGY	ENERGY	CAPACITY	OTHER	Total	Capacity	Primary
	FERC		Gen	MW	Sales	Revenues	Average	PAYMENTS	Revenues	Revenues	Factor	Fuel
Year	I.D. #	FERC Name	Units	Capacity	MWHs	$$$	Rate/MWH	$$$	$$$	$$$	%	Source
2018	C000666	Brookfield White Pine Hydro	59	321.2	1,366,553.24	61,446,869.75	$44.96	34,548,756.54	3,196,292.54	99,191,918.83	48.57%	Hydro
2018	C003976	Bucksport Generation	3	282.8	7,645.82	1,866,699.89	$244.15	13,350,238.37	1,725,991.86	16,942,930.12	0.31%	NG
2018	C000719	Casco Bay Energy Veazie	3	550.2	231,806.86	12,679,434.91	$54.70	52,890,640.81	1,997,949.84	67,568,025.56	4.81%	NG
2018	C000681	FPL Wyman IV	4	846.0	114,883.43	16,187,045.46	$140.90	53,407,412.08	2,767,086.23	72,361,543.77	1.55%	Oil
2018	C000948	Rumford Power	2	274.5	149,679.30	7,802,578.21	$52.13	25,180,796.93	1,687,951.73	34,671,326.87	6.22%	NG
2018	C001300	Verso Androscoggin LLC	3	163.5	333,049.29	16,879,807.84	$50.68	13,916,718.94	602,342.57	31,398,869.35	23.25%	NG
2018	C003485	Westbrook Energy Center	3	563.9	1,428,176.00	0.00	$0.00	62,975,088.00	0.00	0.00	28.91%	NG
		First Six Names	74	2,438.2	2,203,617.9	$116,862,436.06	$53.03	$193,294,563.67	$11,977,614.77	$322,134,614.50	10.32%	Mixed
		All Seven Names	77	3,002.1				$256,269,651.67

Comment by Dan McKay on February 22, 2019 at 10:22am

As I have been saying, Maine should remain passive to contracting with solar and wind resources because, as Willem points out, they are twice as expensive. When Massachusetts contracts with renewables, it pays them a set price. When these same renewables offer bids in the wholesale energy market administered by ISO-NE, they are able to bid $ 0 which suppresses price near where they are located. Much of this suppression is the due to line losses and congestion in transmission which brings about lower values to the resources setting prices. Contracted wind and hydro with Massachusetts that originates in Maine suppresses wholesale prices in Maine and is one of the reasons Maine rates are the lowest in New England. 

The hydro power from Canada (NECEC) is also contracted with Massachusetts and can bid zero. If they and Maine wind bid zero, they could easily dominate the other resource types from Maine, notably, natural gas and biomass, which both require at least a break even price. Rooftop solar will remain unaffected because it's income is tied to retail markets by net billing.

The question remains : will the Canadian hydro displace existing wind ?  If prices are suppressed enough and wind plants start realizing high maintenance costs, it could become a factor. 

Comment by Willem Post on February 22, 2019 at 9:46am

Governor Mills: “Importantly, the discussions in recent weeks have brought to the table the largest generator of renewable energy in North America — HydroQuebec. Partnering with this provincial company to our north, with its plentiful low carbon generation, along with local renewable generators, will not only bring down the price of power for consumers of all sizes but will also help us wean off of fossil fuels in a significant way.

“This project, if further permitted, will put our state and our region on the road to a zero carbon economy by 2050.

If Maine connects its grid with a 1000 MW HVDC line to the H-Q grid system, then it could negotiate a 20-y contract at about 6 c/kWh.

ALL THAT ELECTRICITY SHOULD STAY IN MAINE.

IT SHOULD NO BE SENT TO MASSACHUSETTS.

MASSACHUSETTS IS BUILDING 1600 MW OF OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES SOUTH OF MARTHA's VINEYARD.

MASSACHUSETTS INTENDS TO KEEP ALL THAT ELECTRICITY FOR MASSACHUSETTS 

Hydro-Quebec Electricity Generation and Purchases 

Google this URL for the 2017 facts. The H-Q electricity supply is an order of magnitude cleaner than the Vermont supply.
http://www.hydroquebec.com/sustainable-development/energy-environme...

 

Table 5/H-Q	2017
	GWh
Hydropower generated	177091
Purchased	44006
- Hydro	31610
- Wind	9634
- Biomass and waste reclamation	2021
- Other	741
Total RE generated and purchased	221097

 

NOTE:Gentilly-2 nuclear generating station, plus three thermal generating stations (Tracy, La Citière and Cadillac) were shut down.

 

Hydro-Quebec Export Electricity:H-Q net exports were 34.4 TWh/y in 2017; provided 27% of H-Q net income, or $780 million, i.e., very profitable.

 

H-Q export revenue was $1,651 million in 2017, or 1641/34.4 = 4.8 c/kWh.

See page 24 of Annual Report URL.

This is for a mix of old and new contracts.

Revenue = 1641

Net profit = 780

Cost = 1641 - 780 = 861

Average cost of H-Q generation = 861/34.4 = 2.5 c/kWh

 

GMP buys H-Q electricity, at the Vermont border, for 5.549 c/kWh, under a recent contract. GMP buys at 5.549 c/kWh, per GMP spreadsheet titled “GMP Test Year Power Supply Costs filed as VPSB Docket No: Attachment D, Schedule 2, April 14, 2017”.

H-Q is eager to sell more of its surplus electricity to New England and New York.

 

That is at least 50% less than ridgeline wind and large-scale field-mounted solar, which are heavily subsidized to make their electricity appear to be less costly than reality. 

 

GMP sells to me at 19 c/kWh, per rate schedule. Consumers pricing for electricity is highly political. That is implemented by rate setting, taxes, fees, surcharges, etc., mostly on household electric bills, as in Denmark and Germany, etc. The rate setting is influenced by protecting “RE policy objectives”, which include highly subsidized, expensive microgrids, islanding, batteries and net metered solar and heat pumps.

 

http://www.hydroquebec.com/sustainable-development/energy-environme...

http://news.hydroquebec.com/en/press-releases/1338/annual-report-2917/

http://www.hydroquebec.com/data/documents-donnees/pdf/annual-report...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/green-mountain-power-co...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/increased-canadian-hydr...

Comment by Willem Post on February 22, 2019 at 9:31am

Governor Mills has been seriously misinformed regarding heat pumps

- A typical “Vermont mix” house, 2000 sq ft, requires for space heating about 64000 Btu/h at -20F outdoor and 65F indoor (85F temperature difference), and requires for space cooling about 20,000 Btu/h at 100F outdoor, and 70F indoor (30F temperature difference). Heat pumps would provide about 32% to 34% of the heat during the heating season, with the rest provided by the conventional system and would provide 100% of space cooling. Government heat pump programs, such as in Vermont and Maine, which install subsidized heat pumps in such houses would have unacceptable outcomes, if the goal is minimal CO2. See URLs.

 

- A highly sealed/highly insulated house in Vermont, 2000 sq ft, requires for space heating about 17000 Btu/h at -20F outdoor and 65 F indoor, and requires for space cooling about 5,000 Btu/h at 100F outdoor and 70F indoor (30F temperature difference). Heat pumps would provide 100% of space heating and cooling.

 

Such a house would be at least 10% more expensive than a “Vermont mix” house, because it would require an R-20 basement, R-40 walls, R-60 roof, triple-glazed windows (R-7 to R-10) and insulated doors (R-8 to R-10), and its leakage rate would have to be less than 0.6 air changes per hour, ACH, @ -50 pascal, as verified by a blower door test. In Vermont, about 1% of all housing is highly sealed/highly insulated.

 

These URLs describe what happens, if heat pumps are installed in energy-hog houses in Vermont and Maine

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fact-checking-regarding...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/heat-pumps-oversold-by-...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-baseless-claims...

Comment by Thinklike A. Mountain on February 21, 2019 at 7:35pm

Nice to see both CLF and NRCM stressing the importance of scenery. But why are they each willing to trash Maine's scenic assets with wind farms and transmission for wind farms? Wind farms produce useless power that is not available on demand.

Comment by Dan McKay on February 21, 2019 at 10:27am

Except for her analysis on air source heat pumps, which are notoriously more expensive in temperatures below 30 degrees and will get even more expensive with the cost of electricity going up. That said, her other points are valid.

Comment by John F. Hussey on February 21, 2019 at 10:21am

 This does nothing for Maine, blood BOILING.  Short emotional response... is a crock of CRAP!

Comment by Dan McKay on February 21, 2019 at 10:16am

Governor Mills Statement Regarding NECEC Stipulation Before the PUC

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Governor Mills Statement Regarding NECEC Stipulation Before the PUC

Governor Mills Statement Regarding NECEC Stipulation Before the PUC

February 21, 2019

Portland, MAINE -- Governor Janet Mills released the following statement in response to the announcement of a signed Stipulation regarding the New England Clean Energy Connect (NECEC) proposal:

“Last night thousands of Maine households turned up their thermostats to keep their families warm as the wind and snow came upon us around midnight. At $2.90 a gallon, most of those households spent precious dollars on heating oil.

“Maine is the most heating oil dependent state in the country, with nearly 70% of Maine homeowners relying on oil for their heating needs. We send five billion dollars out of state every year to pay for our use of nonrenewable fossil fuels. Our high costs of energy and electricity are a barrier to our health and a deterrent to our economy, while our cars and trucks account for more than half of our carbon dioxide emissions.

“I ran for the office of Governor with a promise to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, to address our carbon footprint and to accept the challenge of preventing and mitigating climate change — a threat first identified more than eighty years ago by the British engineer G.S. Callender who issued a call to action that has been largely ignored by some in our country.

“We cannot afford to do nothing.

“That is why I authorized the Governor’s Office of Energy to sign onto a Stipulation that requests the Public Utilities Commission to issue a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity, which will allow the New England Clean Energy Connect project to undergo further review before other state and federal agencies.

“Importantly, the discussions in recent weeks have brought to the table the largest generator of renewable energy in North America — HydroQuebec. Partnering with this provincial company to our north, with its plentiful low carbon generation, along with local renewable generators, will not only bring down the price of power for consumers of all sizes but will also help us wean off of fossil fuels in a significant way.

“This project, if further permitted, will put our state and our region on the road to a zero carbon economy by 2050.

“Joined by several prominent environmental groups, western Maine organizations, and others, the Stipulation will allow thousands of Maine low and middle income families to shut off the furnace and heat their homes in the winter and cool them in the summer with modern heat pumps.

“It will put our state in the lead nationally, per capita, in electric vehicle usage.

“By all objective analyses, it will suppress the price of electricity in Maine and in the region, saving Maine residents millions of dollars each year in electricity costs.

“With a substantial investment in broadband, education and other community benefits, it will boost, not diminish, the western Maine economy.

“Finally, while enhancing the reliability of the New England grid to avoid blackouts and brownouts, the project will reduce carbon dioxide emissions in New England by 3.6 million metric tons per year.

“And it will cost Maine ratepayers nothing. Massachusetts will foot the bill.

“I recognize the concerns of those who oppose this project. Their voices continue to be heard as this project undergoes significant review by multiple state and federal agencies, followed their established processes.

“But, all told, I believe that the Stipulation presented today to the Public Utilities Commission will require this project to bring substantial and concrete long-term benefits to the people of Maine.

“The agreement today is markedly different from where the discussion started. Over the past several weeks, leading conservation organizations like the Conservation Law Foundation and Acadia Center, the Industrial Energy Consumers Group, the Office of the Public Advocate, and the Governor’s Energy Office and others have brought HydroQuebec to the table and have pushed both HydroQuebec and Central Maine Power to an agreement that provides significant economic and environmental benefits for Maine people.

“And in recent weeks I have met with organizations both opposing and supporting the proposal. As the Chief Executive of the State, it is my responsibility to weigh the broad ramifications of proposals like this and judge whether it moves us forward.

“Now that the project, substantially enhanced by this Stipulation, targets benefits to Maine people, injects millions into our economy and is poised to create jobs, fund electric vehicles, reduce electricity costs, expand broadband access, and substantially reduce our carbon footprint, I believe this is a project that is, on balance, worth pursuing.”

Comment by John F. Hussey on February 21, 2019 at 9:50am

This STINKS...….. FOLLOW THE MONEY! 

Comment by Willem Post on February 21, 2019 at 9:28am

If that line runs through New Hampshire it may run  into a roadblock.

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