REPLACING GASOLINE AND DIESEL FUEL WITH BIOFUELS

The main purpose of replacing gasoline and diesel fuel with biofuels is to reduce CO2eq emissions. This analysis found:

 

- Replacing gasoline with 100% ethanol reduces CO2eq from 1504 MMt to 1431 MMt, or 4.9%

- Replacing diesel fuel with 100% biofuel reduces CO2eq from 587 MMt to 234 MMt, or 60.1%.

 

These values are less than are usually stated, because upstream CO2eq emissions were included.

In case of ethanol, E100, the combustion CO2eq emissions are 12.754 lb/gal and upstream are 15.041 lb/gal. The combustion emissions are not counted, but upstream emissions are counted. See Appendix 1.

 

In case of biodiesel, B100, the combustion CO2eq emissions are 20.829 lb/gal and upstream are 10.524 lb/gal. The combustion emissions are not counted, but upstream emissions are counted. See Appendix 1.

NOTE: Politics is the only reason the ethanol from corn program exists. If the 32.214 million acres planted with corn for E100 in 2017 were instead planted with soybeans, there would be a (32.214, E100 + 10.857, B100)/10.857, B100 = 3.96 times increase in biofuel from soybeans and a far greater reduction in CO2eq. Politicians knew that, but set up the heavily subsidized ethanol from corn program anyway, at great cost to the public treasury.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/politically-inspired-ma...

US Biodiesel Production

 

The US production of biodiesel, B100, from all feedstock sources increased 19.2% during the 2013 -2017 period. See table 1

https://www.agmrc.org/renewable-energy/renewable-energy-climate-cha...

 

Table 1

Production

Growth

US B100 Production

million gallons

%

2013

1339

2014

1271

2015

1268

2016

1569

2017

1596

19.2

US B100 Major Feed stocks

B100 can be made from soybeans and other sources, such as tallow (fat) from rendering plants, used cooking oils, vegetable oils, and algae and kelp. In the U.S., soybean oil and used cooking oils are the most common feedstocks.

 

NOTE: B100 from algae is an area of ongoing research. Algae could potentially produce 10 to 300 times more B100 per acre than other crops. Any projections regarding the future availability of B100 from algae would be merely guesswork. It likely would take decades before mass production would be a reality of any significance.

 

The major feedstock sources are shown in table 2.

 

Table 2

Quantity

Quantity

B100

US B100 Feedstocks

million lb

million lb

billion gallon

Vegetable fats

2016

2017

2017

Soybean oil

6096

6230

0.826

Corn oil

1306

1579

 

Canola oil

1130

1452

 

Total

10548

11278

 

.

 

 

 

Animal fats

 

Yellow grease

1389

1471

 

Choice white grease

578

591

 

Tallow

332

340

 

Poultry fat

220

230

 

Total

2519

2632

 

B100 from all other sources

 

 

0.770

Total B100 production

 

 

1.596

US diesel consumption

 

 

45.833

 

NOTE: The tallow and poultry fat data for 2017 were assumed, as they were not yet available

 

US Gasoline and Diesel Consumption in 2017

In 2017, the US consumed 142.980 billion gallons of “gasoline”, which included 14.798 billion gallons of E100

If the US were to replace all petro-gasoline with E100, about 424 million acres would need to be planted in corn.

 

In 2017, the US consumed 45.833 billion gallon of “diesel”, which included 1.986 billion gallon of B100

If the US were to replace all petro-diesel with B100, about 651 million acres would need to be planted in soybeans.

US Cropland

 

The US planted crops on about 334 million acres in 2017. It would be a miracle, if the US could increase its crop area by 50 million acres. See major crops in table and URLs.

 

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/Acre/Acre-06-29-2018.pdf

See Summary Table 3 of URL.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx

 

Table/2017

Million acre

Corn

89.1

Soybean

89.6

Hay

55.0

All wheat

47.8

All cotton

13.5

US Ethanol (E100) from Corn

 

During 2017, the US planted 89.1 million acre in corn, of which 32.214 million acre were dedicated to E100.

E100 production was 15.936 billion gallon. See table 4.

Click table 10.3, xls of eia URL.

 

https://www.agweb.com/article/usda-2017-corn-production-down-despit...

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=90&t=4

https://www.afdc.energy.gov/data/10339

 

Table 4/E100 from Corn

2017

Planted, million acre

89.100

Crop, all uses, billion bushel

14.604

Crop, E100 from corn, billion bushel

5.280

Yield, bushel/acre

176.6

.

 

Planted for ethanol, all uses, million acre

32.214

Planted for E100, blending, million acre

29.913

Ethanol production, all uses, billion gallon

15.936

Yield, gal/acre; 1000 x 15.936/32.214

495

E100 for blending, billion gallon

14.798

 

Replace US Petro-Gasoline with E100 From Corn

 

US “gasoline” consumption was 142.298 billion gal in 2017, per EIA

E100 blended with petro-gasoline was 14.798 billion gal from 29.913 million acres of corn

Petro-gasoline was 128.182 billion gal

E100 was about 7.06% of the total Btu of “gasoline” consumption, based on LHV

Additional E100 would be 128.182 x 116090/76330 = 194.952 billion gal, based on LHV

Total E100 would be 14.798, existing + 194.952, new = 209.750 billion gal

Total cropland for blending ethanol would be about 29.913 x 209.750/14.798 = 423.992 million acres to replace all US petro-gasoline with E100. See table 5

 

https://www.uaex.edu/publications/PDF/FSA-1050.pdf

https://www.statista.com/statistics/189410/us-gasoline-and-diesel-c...

https://unitedsoybean.org/media-center/issue-briefs/biodiesel/  

NOTE: A fuel has a higher and lower heating value, Btu/gal. Some of the Btus are used during combustion to create water vapor, leaving only the lower heating value, LHV, Btus to perform useful work.Any replacement of petro-gasoline would be by replacing its LHV Btus with ethanol having an equal LHV Btus. See Appendix.

 

Table 5/2017

“Gasoline”

Consumption, 1000 barrel/d

9326.81

gal/barrel

42

TBtu, LHV

“Gasoline”, billion gal

142.980

16010.180

Petro-gasoline, billion gal

128.182

14880.648

E100 for blending, billion gal

14.798

1129.531

Planted for E100 blending, million acres

29.913

Additional E100, billion gal

194.952

Total E100, billion gal

209.750

Total acres in corn, million acres

423.992

E100, % of total Btu, LHV

7.06

 

US Biodiesel (B100) From Soybean and Other Sources

 

The US planted about 89.6 million acres in soybeans in 2017.

The soybean crop, all uses, was 4.390 billion bushel, for a yield of about 4.39 x 1000/89.6 = 49 bushel/acre

 

B100 production required 6.230 billion pounds of soybean oil from 0.532 billion bushels in 2017, or 11.654 lb oil/bushel. See URL.

 

https://unitedsoybean.org/media-center/issue-briefs/biodiesel/

https://www.eia.gov/biofuels/biodiesel/production/

 

The soybean crop for B100 required about 0.532, B100/4.39, all uses x 89.6 = 10.857 million acres.  

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2018/01_12_2018.php

 

B100 produced from soybean oil was 0.826 billion gallon in 2017

B100 from other sources was 0.770 billion gallon. See table 6

 

Click on the 10.4, xls, in the URL to see the values in table

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.php#renewable

 

NOTE: Renewable diesel is made from used, petro-based grease and used, petro-based lubricating oils. It is not B100. Its CO2eq has to be counted.

 

Table 6

million gallon

Tbtu, LHV

B100 from soybeans

826

98.748

B100 from other sources

770

92.054

B100 total production

1596

190.802

Imports

301

35.985

Inventory

88

10.520

B100, total consumption

1985

237.307

 

Total US diesel fuel consumption was 45.833 billion gallon in 2017, which included 1985 billion gallon of B100. See table 7

https://www.statista.com/statistics/189410/us-gasoline-and-diesel-c...

 

Table 7

 

B100 from soybeans

2017

Crop, bushel/acre/y

49

Weight, lb/bushel

60

Crop weight, lb/acre

2940

Oil, lb/bushel; see URL

11.654

Oil, lb/acre/y

571

Process yield

0.973

B100, lb/acre/y

556

Weight, lb/gal

7.3

B100, gal/acre/y

76

B100, gal/bu

1.55

.

Soybeans, billion bu; see URL

0.532

Area, million acres

10.857

 

Replace US Petro-Diesel with B100 from Soybeans

 

US “diesel” consumption was 45,833 billion gal in 2017, per EIA

B100 blended with petro-diesel was 1,985 billion gal from various sources. See table 6.

Petro-diesel was 43.848 billion gal

B100 was about 4.00% of the total Btu of “diesel” consumption, based on LHV

Additional B100 would be 43.848 x 129488/119550 = 47,493 billion gal, based on LHV.

Total B100 would be 1.985, existing + 47.493, new = 49.478 billion gal

Total cropland for B100 would be about 49.478 billion gal/76 gal/acre = 651 million acres, if no imports. See table 9

https://www.statista.com/statistics/189410/us-gasoline-and-diesel-c...

 

Table 9/2017

"Diesel"

Petro-diesel in blend

Petro-diesel

US consumption, 1000 barrel/d

2989.78

US consumption, 1000 barrel/y

1091270

gal/barrel

42

US consumption, billion gallon/y

45.833

1.985

43.848

Tbtu, LHV

5934.866

237.307

5697.559

B100 in blend, % of Btus

4.00

Additional B100 to replace diesel, b gallon

47.658

Total B100, billion gallon

49.643

Yield, gal/acre

76

Total acres, million

651

.

HHV, Btu/gal

138490

127960

LHV, Btu/gal

129488

119550

Additional Sources of Information:

 

https://ethanolrfa.org/resources/industry/statistics/#1537811482060...

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_a_EPM0F_VPP_mbbl_a.htm

https://www.agmrc.org/renewable-energy/renewable-energy-climate-cha...

https://ethanolrfa.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/2017-U.S.-Ethanol...

CO2eq Reduction

 

The CO2eq reduction is significant, because the combustion CO2 of E100 and B100 are not counted, per international agreement.

 

The CO2eq reduction would be 1504 - 1431 = 73 million metric ton, or about a 4.9% reduction.

See Appendix 2 for CO2eq data.

 

CO2eq reduction

Comb'n

Upstream

Comb'n

Upstream

Total

Table 10

LHV

Consume

LHV

 CO2eq

 CO2eq

CO2eg

CO2eg

CO2eg

Before

Btu/gal

b gallon

Tbtu

lb/gal

lb/gal

million mt

million mt

million mt

Petro-gasoline, table 5

116090

128.182

14881

19.301

4.825

1122

281

1403

E100, table 6

76330

14.798

1130

0

15.041

0

101

101

Total

142.980

16010

1122

381

1504

After

E100, table 5

76330

209.750

16010

0

15.041

0

1431

1431

The CO2eq reduction would be 587 - 234 = 352 million metric ton, or about a 60.1% reduction.

See Appendix 2 for CO2eq data.

 

CO2eq reduction

Comb’n

Upstream

Comb’n

Upstream

Total

Table 11

LHV

Consume LHV

 CO2eq

 CO2eq

CO2eq

CO2eq

CO2eq

Before

Btu/gal

b gallon

Tbtu

lb/gal

lb/gal

million mt

million mt

million mt

Petro-diesel, table 8

128488

43.848

5634

22.638

6.381

450

127

577

B100, table 6

119550

1.985

237

0

10.524

0

9

9

Total

45.833

5871

450

136

587

After

B100, table 9

119550

49.112

5871

0

10.524

0

234

234

APPENDIX 1

Combustion CO2eq

 

The combustion CO2eq of various fuels are shown in table 1. See URLs

 

https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/fuel_comparison_chart.pdf

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-07/documents/emissi...

 

Table 1/Combustion

CO2

CH4

N2O

CO2eq

CO2eq

25

298

2.2026

kg/MBtu

g/M Btu

g/M Btu

kg/M Btu

lb//MBtu

E100

68.440

1.10

0.11

68.500

150.882

Gasoline

70.220

3.00

0.60

70.474

155.229

E10

70.042

2.81

0.55

70.276

154.794

Diesel

73.960

3.00

0.60

74.214

163.467

B100

73.840

1.10

0.11

73.900

162.776

B20

73.936

2.62

0.50

74.151

163.328

.

Mbtu = million Btu

Upstream CO2eq

 

The upstream CO2eq of various fuels are shown in table 2. See URLs

 

https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/042308lcfs_etoh.pdf

https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/121514ulsd.pdf

https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/092309lcfs_uco_bd.pdf

https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/100308lcfs_soybiodsl.pdf

HHVs from

https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-07/documents/emissi...

 

Table 2/Upstream

g CO2eq/MJ

g/MJ to lb/Mbtu

lb CO2eq/Mbtu

Btu/gal

gal/Mbtu

lb CO2eq/gal

E100

76.500

2.326

177.939

84000

11.905

14.947

Gasoline

16.680

2.326

38.798

125000

8.000

4.850

E10

22.662

2.326

52.712

120900

8.271

6.373

Diesel

19.810

2.326

46.078

138000

7.246

6.359

B100

31.660

2.326

73.641

B100

3.700

2.326

8.606

Total B100

35.360

2.326

82.247

128000

7.813

10.528

B20

22.920

2.326

53.312

136000

7.353

7.250

MBtu = million Btu

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 g/MJ x 1 lb/453.59237 g x 1.05506 GJ/1 MBtu = 2.326 lb/MBtu.

Combustion + Upstream CO2eq

 

The higher and lower heating values and upstream and combustion CO2eq of various fuels are shown in table 3. The upstream CO2eq/gal of E100 is greater than its combustion CO2eq/gal! See URLs.

https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/fuel_comparison_chart.pdf

 

Table 3/Comb'n + Upstr

Combustion

Upstream

Total

Total, no bio

lb CO2eq/MBtu

lb CO2eq/MBtu

lb CO2eq/MBtu

lb CO2eq/MBtu

E100

150.882

177.939

328.821

177.939

Gasoline

155.239

38.798

194.037

194.037

E10

154.794

52.712

207.506

192.027

Diesel

163.467

46.078

209.545

209.545

B100

162.776

73.641

236.417

73.641

B20

163.328

53.312

216.640

183.974

.

 

 

 

 

MBtu = million Btu

 

 

 

 

Natural Gas and Liquefied Natural Gas

 

The CO2eq and CO2eq factors of NG and LNG are shown in table 4. The upstream energy factors were assumed to be the same as the CO2eq factors, because I was unable to find the upstream energy for extraction, processing and transport of NG and LNG. See URLs.

 

Comparative Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of LNG versus Coal and Gas for Electricity Generation

Google the title and the PDF will appear.

http://www.igu.org/sites/default/files/node-page-field_file/LNGLife...

 

The high CO2eq factor for LNG is due to the additional processing of natural gas, liquefying, storing, loading into tankers, tanker transport and losses during transport, unloading from tanker and storing, re-gasifying and distribution.

 

Table 

Combustion

Upstream

Combustion + Upstream

CO2eq factor

lb/mil’n Btu

lb/mil’n Btu

lb/mil’n Btu

NG CO2eq

120.000

20.4

140.400

0.1700

LNG CO2eq

120.000

51.4

171.400

0.4283

APPENDIX 2

Vermont Comprehensive Energy Plan:The CEP, issued by the Vermont Department of Public Service, DPS, has a goal to have 90% of ALL primary energy from renewables by 2050, such as wind, solar, hydro, biomass, E100, B100, etc.

 

Energy Action Network, EAN, provided major input to the CEP. It performs engineering analyses for various Vermont RE entities and for the Vermont Department of Public Service, DPS.

 

The estimated capital cost of the CEP, as estimated by EAN, is at least $33 billion by 2050, or about ONE BILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR, or about 6 to 7 times greater than current annual RE investments in Vermont.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-s-90-percent-re...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-energy-transfor...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/90-or-100-renewable-ene...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/gmp-and-vermont-s-90-re...

 

Table 1 was compiled from the tables in the URL.

http://eanvt.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/EAN-2050-Energy-Analysi...

 

Table 1

PE

 

CEP goals

EAN

Total

Transport

Thermal

B100

B100

Biomass

Biomass

Non-RE/RE

TBtu

TBtu

TBtu

TBtu

%

TBtu

%

%

2010

148.40

0.00

0.00

5.75

3.67

88/12

2020

136.62

1.50

0.00

1.50

1.10

8.66

6.34

80/20

2030

116.61

8.20

3.30

8.20

7.03

12.86

11.03

60/40

2040

93.32

14.61

6.61

21.22

22.74

15.70

16.82

32/68

2050

95.27

25.28

9.91

35.19

36.94

16.18

16.98

10/90

 

EAN Biomass Claim is a Baseless Fantasy

 

- EAN estimated biomass at 16.98% of all VT PE in 2050. See table 1.

- EAN estimated the biomass harvest to be 16.18/5.75 = 2.81 times larger in 2050 than in 2010.

- EAN did not mention where the additional trees and other biomass would be sourced.

- EAN mentioned more wood pellet stoves. Would the pellets come from out-of-state? See table 1.

 http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wood-for-fuel-logging-i...

 

- VT annual wood harvest already is about 350,000 dry ton in excess of the US Forest Service recommended limit for removals, i.e., about 50% of the annual growth rate of above ground biomass.

- McNeil and Ryegate, old-technology wood-burning power plants (efficiency about 24%; modern plants about 30%) use about 347,342 (in-state) + 371,691 (out-of-state) = 719,033 green ton/y.

- Those plants should be closed down to make the wood available for more efficient purposes. See URLs.

- VT is harvesting in excess on its own land, plus it is importing from NH and NY.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/is-burning-wood-co-2-ne...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-wood-harvesting...

 

EAN Biofuel Claim is a Baseless Fantasy

 

- EAN estimated B100 at 36.94% of all VT PE in 2050. See table 1.

- That likely assumes major breakthroughs in B100 production from pond algae, because, significant additional B100 could not possibly come from land-based crops.

- The CO2eq of upstream energy for make-up seawater to maintain salinity, for operating and maintaining the facilities, for large quantities of fertilizer to grow algae, for processing the oil into B100, likely from fossil sources for at least the next few decades, has to be counted. That CO2eq could equal at least 40% of the combustion CO2eq.

- The CO2eq of fossil fuels is from carbon that was buried many millions of years ago. See URL

 

There is not enough land area in all of Vermont to produce 35.19TBtu/y of B100 from soybeans, and there is not enough sunshine to economically produce it from pond algae. See table 2 and URL.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biofuels-from-pond-algae

 

Table 2/VT B100 in 2050

 

Soybean, gal/acre/y

76

Btu/gal, LHV

119550

Yield, Btu/acre/y

9085800

Tbtu from B100 in 2050

35.19

Soybean cropland, acres

3874177

 

EAN estimates appear to be extremely excessive, based on the small quantities of biofuel likely to be produced by 2030. See tables 1 and 2 in URL.

 

US population is about 325 million

VT population is about 0.62 million

 

EAN projected 1.50 TBtu in 2020. If scaled to US levels, US consumption would be 1.50 x 325/0.62 = 786 TBtu.

EAN projected 8.20 TBtu in 2030. If scaled to US levels, US consumption would be 8.20 x 325/0.062 = 4298 TBtu.

EAN projected 21.22 TBtu in 2040. If scaled to US levels, US consumption would be 21.22 x 325/0.62 = 11123 TBtu

 

There is no way the US could produce that much TBtu from land cropping, animal sources, and pond algae by 2030 or 2040. 

 

EAN projections for 2050 is even more excessive, as almost all of that biofuel would have to be from pond algae, i.e., it could not come from land crops due to a lack of cropland. See URLs.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biofuels-from-pond-algae

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/replacing-gasoline-and-...

 

Table3/Year

CEP projection

 Implied US consumption

Estimated US production

 

TBtu

TBtu

TBtu

2020

 1.50

786

 

2030

 8.20

4298

 506.2

2040

 21.22

11123

 2153.2

APPENDIX 3

Higher and Lower Heating Values of Fuels

The higher heating value, HHV, is the heat content in a fuel, such as Btu/lb

The lower heating value, LHV, is the heat content in a fuel available to an internal combustion engine.

 

Any replacement of petro-diesel fuel and petro-gasoline would be by replacing their total Btus, based on LHVs, with biofuels having an equal total Btus, based on LHVs.

 

- E10, usually called gasoline, also called gasohol, is a blend of 90% gasoline and 10% ethanol, E100, from corn.

- B100 is 100% biodiesel

- B20 is a blend of 80% petro-diesel and 20% B100

See table 3 and URL.

https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/fuel_comparison_chart.pdf

https://h2tools.org/hyarc/calculator-tools/lower-and-higher-heating...

 

Table

Ethanol

Gasoline

E10 (90/10)

Petro-diesel, LS

B100

B20 (80/20)

NG

LNG

HHV, Btu/gal

84530

124340

120359

138490

127960

136384

22453

23735

LHV, Btu/gal

76330

116090

112114

129488

119550

127500

20267

20908

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

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(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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