I-95 ICE STORM OVERNIGHT TRAFFIC JAM; IMAGINE YOU WERE STUCK IN AN EV

An ice storm and accident (a truck jack-knifing) stranded thousands of drivers, in freezing conditions, on the Virginia I-95 overnight on Monday.

My question – what would have happened, if almost all would be driving electric vehicles?

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/01/05/i-95-ice-storm-overnight-tra...

A 27-hour Commute: Virginia officials pelted with questions after hundreds of drivers were stuck on I-95 overnight

The winter storm blanketed several states in the mid-Atlantic and South on Monday, closing schools and causing power outages.

In Virginia, drivers were stranded in a 50-mile stretch of Interstate 95 near Fredericksburg overnight. Five deaths across three states were caused by the weather.

Ice and snow stranded hundreds of drivers on Interstate 95 in Virginia into Tuesday after a winter storm pounded several Eastern states and dumped more than a foot of snow in some places.

The storm brought havoc to roadways, left more than 300,000 without power in Virginia and Maryland and caused at least five deaths across three states.

No injuries or fatalities from the storm or the traffic backup were reported in Virginia.

Problems began Monday morning when a truck jack-knifed on Interstate 95, the main north-south highway along the East Coast, triggering a swift chain reaction as other vehicles lost control, state police said.

On a roughly 50-mile stretch of I-95 near Fredericksburg, drivers were stuck in their cars overnight while ice blanketed the freeway. The Virginia Department of Transportation tweeted Tuesday that the stretch of the interstate remained closed.

Josh Lederman, a reporter with NBC News, tweeted that he was stuck in his car overnight and many motorists turned off their cars to conserve gas.

“People (myself included) are taking exercise breaks outside their cars, walking their dogs on the interstate. I’ve been putting snow in his bowl and letting it melt into water,” he tweeted, detailing the ordeal.

Sen. Kaine finally arrived in Washington Tuesday afternoon, some 27 hours after his journey began.

Drivers survived the Monday traffic jam by periodically running their engines to stay warm. When the traffic finally started moving again, most vehicles had enough gasoline to finish their journeys.

President Biden is pushing everyone to switch to electric vehicles, as part of his Net Zero plan.

But EV batteries suffer severe performance drops in freezing conditions, and are more likely than gasoline engines to fail completely in severe conditions.

Even if the EV batteries don’t freeze, an EV battery contains nowhere near as much energy as a tank of gas, so the safety margin is a lot thinner, for people stranded in severe weather who are using the stored energy of their vehicle to stay warm.

In my opinion, if everyone stuck on the I-95 had been driving an EV, the I-95 ice storm traffic jam could have become a mass casualty event.
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A DOSE OF REALITY FROM A LIKELY FUTURE SCENARIO DURING A SNOWSTORM ON I-95

A Future with EVs: Many drivers and passengers would be in office or street clothes, going home in their EVs, which likely would be recharged in their garages, as soon as they would get home.

 

Many people spent 19 hours, or more, in their EV without food and drink. Senator Kaine of PA, spent 27 hours on the road while driving from PA to Washington, DC

 

If EV drivers thought to heat their cabins with the battery, each kWh taken from the battery would provide about 0.8 kWh to the cabin, or 0.8 x 3412 Btu, which would disappear in about 15 to 20 minutes at a night-time temperature of 20F or less.

 

Battery Operation During Cold Weather:

 

They do not work well

They are not as efficient

They have much less range

They use more kWh/mile

You may try an experiment: Get up at 4 am, put on your street clothes, and see how long it takes to warm up the cabin of your gasoline car, then just wait until it becomes cold again, and another reheat is needed. 

 

NOTE: When I was a poor student, instead of getting a room, I would sleep in my car fully clad with ski clothes, inside a sleeping bag, in a parking lot. Then, I would go for breakfast to warm up, and go skiing.

 

Some Simple EV Calculations: If the EV battery capacity is 66 kWh (such has a Chevy Bolt) and it was charged to 80% (a prudent maximum charge level), the charge would be 52.8 kWh at the start of driving to work.

 

Assume driving to work used up 20 kWh; in winter much more kWh/mile would be used, especially with the cabin and battery heaters on.

 

The remaining charge would be 32.8 kWh at start of driving home, in the evening, on a normal winter day.

 

The EV driver would get home with 12.8 kWh left in the battery (12.8/66 = 21% full, which would be adequate, because it would be greater than the prudent minimum charge level of 15%). See Appendix.

 

NOTE: To achieve a long life, batteries are recommended to be operated:

 

- From 80% full to 15% full, on a regular basis, such as daily commuting,

- From 90% full to 10% full on rare occasions, such as a rare long trip. See Appendix

 

Snow Storms and EVs: During major snowstorms, which have happened before global warming, and would happen after global warming, thousands of EVs, trucks and busses, etc., could get stuck in traffic for about 19 hours. 

 

After a stuck EV driver operated the cabin heater a few times, he/she would quickly realize the very low state of the battery, and would likely not get home, if he/she frequently used the cabin heater while stuck in traffic.

The battery heater would automatically maintain battery temperature, in case driving would resume

 

A stuck EV driver likely would have a cell phone, and would begin to realize being stuck might become an all-nighter. 

 

At this point, the last thing a stuck EV driver would want to do is turn on the music, as it would drain even more electricity from the battery.

Driving Tesla Models 3 and Y During Cold Weather: Both models have heat pumps to heat/cool the cabin and heat/cool the battery. During cold weather, say 15 F and below, the on-board software first heats the battery for protection and to maintain efficiency, then heats the cabin.

If the temperature is 0 F or less, not enough heat is available to properly heat the cabin, i.e., driver and passengers, including infants, need to bundle up to avoid freezing.

Charging a Cold EV Battery: An EV with a battery at 32F or less, in a garage or outdoors, must NOT BE CHARGED, but must be towed, warmed up to about 40F in a warm garage, THEN charged at a slow rate.

 

If that procedure is not followed, the result will be a sudden, severe, and permanent capacity loss, on the order of several dozen percent or more, as well as a similar, and also permanent increase, in internal resistance.

This damage occurs after just one isolated 'cold-charging' event, and is proportional to the speed at which the battery is charged, such as by a Level-2, or high-speed charger. 

I am willing to bet, very few EV drivers are aware of these winter perils. They may already have damaged their batteries, and not be aware of it.

It gets worse!!

Even more importantly, a lithium-ion cell that has been cold charged is NOT safe and must be safely recycled, or otherwise discarded.

It will work fine, until it randomly explodes, due to mechanical vibration, mechanical shock, or just reaching a high enough state of charge, such as during at-home charging to nearly 100% full, “to get more range”.

BTW, fast charging on the road is usually automatically limited to 80% full, to protect the battery. See URL

https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/263036/why-charging...

 

NOTE: Pennsylvania Home a "Total Loss" After Charging Tesla in Driveway Spontaneously Combusts

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/pennsylvania-home-s-to...

Gasoline Vehicle: The few remaining, die-hard drivers of gasoline cars, with little gas in their tanks, would be just as bad off as EV drivers, except, with some gas from portable tanks from friendly souls, they would be on their way home.

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APPENDIX 1
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CHEVY BOLT CATCHES FIRE WHILE CHARGING ON DRIVEWAY IN VERMONT

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/chevy-bolt-catches-fir...

 

THETFORD; July 2, 2021 — A fire destroyed a 2019 Chevy Bolt, 66 kWh battery, battery pack cost about $10,000, or 10000/66 = $152/kWh, EPA range 238 miles, owned by state Rep. Tim Briglin, D-Thetford, Chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Technology.

 

He had been driving back and forth from Thetford, VT, to Montpelier, VT, with his EV, about 100 miles via I-89

He had parked his 2019 Chevy Bolt on the driveway, throughout the winter, per GM recall of Chevy Bolts

He had plugged his EV into a 240-volt charger.

His battery was at about 10% charge at start of charging, at 8 PM, and he had charged it to 100% charge at 4 AM; 8 hours of charging.

Charging over such a wide range is detrimental for the battery. However, it is required for “range-driving”, i.e., making long trips. See Note

 

NOTE: Range-driving is an absolute no-no, except on rare occasions, as it would 1) pre-maturely age/damage the battery, 2) reduce range sooner, 3) increase charging loss, and 4) increase kWh/mile, and 5) increase the chance of battery fires.

 

Charging at 32F or less

Li-ions would plate out on the anode each time when charging, especially when such charging occurred at battery temperatures of 32F or less.

 

Here is an excellent explanation regarding charging at 32F or less.

https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/263036/why-charging...

 

Fire in Driveway: Firefighters were called to Briglin’s house on Tucker Hill Road, around 9 AM Thursday.

Investigators from the Vermont Department of Public Safety Fire and Explosion Investigation Unit determined:

 

1) The fire started in a compartment in the back of the passenger’s side of the vehicle

2) It was likely due to an “electrical failure”. See Note

 

NOTE: Actually, it likely was one or more battery cells shorting out, which creates heat, which burns nearby items, which creates a fire that is very hard to extinguish. See Appendix

 

https://www.vnews.com/Firefighters-put-out-blaze-in-car-of-Vt-State...

https://www.engadget.com/gm-chevy-bolt-fire-warning-215322969.html

https://electrek.co/2020/11/13/gm-recall-chevy-bolt-evs-potential-f...

 

GM Recall of Chevy Bolts: In 2020, GM issued a worldwide recall of 68,667 Chevy Bolts, all 2017, 2018 and 2019 models, plus, in 2021, a recall for another 73,000 Bolts, all 2020, 2021, and 2022 models.

GM set aside $1.8 BILLION to replace battery modules, or 1.8 BILLION/(68,667 + 73,000) = $12,706/EV.

 

https://insideevs.com/news/524712/chevrolet-bolt-battery-recall-cost/

https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/568817-gm-expands-bolt-ev...

 

Owners were advised not to charge them in a garage, and not to leave them unattended while charging, which may take up to 8 hours; what a nuisance!

I wonder what could happen during rush hour traffic, or in a parking garage, or at a shopping mall, etc.

Rep. Briglin heeded the GM recall by not charging in his garage. See URLs

 

https://www.ericpetersautos.com/2021/09/16/electric-social-distancing/

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/some-ne-state-governme...

 

NOTE:

- Cost of replacing the battery packs of 80,000 Hyundai Konas was estimated at $900 million, about $11,000 per vehicle

https://insideevs.com/news/492167/reports-lg-chem-cost-hyundai-batt...

- EV batteries should be charged from 20 to 80%, to achieve minimal degradation and long life, plus the charging loss is minimal in that range

- Charging EVs from 0 to 20% charge, and from 80 to 100% charge:

 

1) Uses more kWh AC from the wall outlet per kWh DC charged into the battery, and

2) Is detrimental to the battery.

3) Requires additional kWh for cooling the battery while charging.

 

- EV batteries must never be charged, when the battery temperature is less than 32F; if charged anyway, the plating out of Li-ions on the anode would permanently damage the battery.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/how-does-lithium-ion-battery-work

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APPENDIX 2

HERE IS AN EXCELLENT EXPLANATION REGARDING EV CHARGING AT 32F OR LESS

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/here-is-an-excellent-e...

 

Here is an excellent explanation regarding EV charging at 32F or less.

 

Explanation by Expert

 

'Cold temperatures' is awfully vague. First, let me actually specify some real, hard numbers.

Do not charge lithium-ion batteries below 32°F/0°C. In other words, never charge a lithium-ion battery that is below freezing.

Doing so even once, will result in a sudden, severe, and permanent capacity loss on the order of several dozen percent or more, as well aa a similar, and also permanent increase, in internal resistance. This damage occurs after just one isolated 'cold-charging' event, and is proportional to the speed at which the cell is charged, such as by a high-speed charger. 

 

But, even more importantly, a lithium-ion cell that has been cold charged is NOT safe and must be safely recycled, or otherwise discarded. It will work fine, until it randomly explodes, due to mechanical vibration, mechanical shock, or just reaching a high enough state of charge. See URL

https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/263036/why-charging... 

Now, to actually answer your question: why is this?

 

This requires a quick summary of how lithium-ion batteries work. They have an anode and cathode and electrolyte just like any other battery, but there is a twist: lithium ions actually move from the cathode to anode during charging and intercalate into it. The gist of intercalation is that molecules or ions (lithium ions in this case) are crammed in between the molecular gaps of some material's lattice. 

 

During discharging, the lithium ions leave the anode and return to the cathode, and likewise intercalate into the cathode. So, both the cathode and anode act as sort of a 'sponge' for lithium ions. 

 

When most of the lithium ions are intercalated into the cathode (meaning the battery is in a fairly discharged state), the cathode material will expand slightly due to volumetric strain (because of all the extra atoms wedged in between its lattice), but generally most of this is intercalation force is converted to internal stresses (analogous to tempered glass), so the volumetric strain is slight. 

 

During charging, the lithium ions leave the cathode and intercalate into the graphite anode. Graphite has is basically a carbon biscuit, made of a bunch of graphene layers to form an aggregate biscuit structure.  American biscuit structure.

 

This greatly reduces the graphite anode's ability to convert the force from the intercalation into internal stresses, so the anode undergoes significantly more volumetric strain - so much so that it will actually increase in volume by 10-20%. This must be (and is - except in the case of a certain Samsung phone battery anyway) allowed for when designing a lithium-ion cell - otherwise the anode can slowly weaken or even ultimately puncture the internal membrane that separates the anode from the cathode, causing a dead short inside the cell. But only once a bunch of joules has been shoved into the cell (thus expanding the anode). 

 

Ok, but what does any of this have to do with cold temperatures?

 

When you charge a lithium-ion cell in below freezing temperatures, most of the lithium ions fail to intercalate into the graphite anode. Instead, they plate the anode with metallic lithium, just like electroplating an anode coin with a cathode precious metal.

 

So, charging will electroplate the anode with lithium rather than, well, recharging it. Some of the ions to intercalate into the anode, and some of the atoms in the metal plating will intercalate later over 20+ hours, if the cell is allowed to rest, but most will not. That is the source of the capacity reduction, increased internal resistance, and also the danger.

 

If you've read my related answer on stack exchange to the question 'Why is there so much fear surrounding lithium-ion batteries?', you can probably see where this is going. 

 

This lithium plating of the anode isn't nice and smooth and even (like chrome plating). It forms in dendrites, little sharp tendrils of lithium metal growing on the anode.

 

As with the other failure mechanisms which likewise are due to metallic lithium plating of the anode (though for different reasons), these dendrites can put unexpected pressure on the separating membrane as the anode expands and forces them into it, and if you're unlucky, this will cause the membrane to one day fail unexpectedly (or also immediately, sometimes a dendrite just pokes a hole in it and touches the cathode).

 

This makes the cell vent, ignite its flammable electrolyte, and ruin your weekend (at best).

 

However, you might be wondering, "why do below-freezing temperatures cause lithium metal plating of the anode?"

 

And the unfortunate and unsatisfying answer is that we don't actually know. We must use neutron imaging to look inside functioning lithium-ion cells, and considering there are only around ~30 (31 I think?) worldwide active research reactors (nuclear reactors that act as a neutron source) that are actually available for scientific research at a university rather than used for medical isotope production, and all of them booked 24/7 for experiments, I think it is just a matter of patience. There have only been a few instances of neutron imaging of lithium-ion batteries simply due to scarcity of equipment time. 

 

The last time this was used specifically for this cold temperature problem was 2014 I believe, and here is the article. 

 

Despite the headline, they still haven't really solved exactly what it is that causes plating rather than intercalation when the cell is below freezing.

 

Interestingly, it is actually possible to charge a lithium-ion cell below freezing, but only at exceedingly low currents, below 0.02C

(a greater than 50-hour charge time).

 

There are also a few exotic cells commercially available that are specifically designed to be chargeable in cold temperatures, usually at significant cost (both monetarily and in terms of the cells' performance in other areas). 

 

Note: I should add that discharging a lithium-ion battery in below freezing temperatures is perfectly safe. Most cells have discharge temperature ratings of -20°C or even colder. Only charging a 'frozen' cell need be avoided.

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APPENDIX 3

See section Charging Electric Vehicles During Freezing Conditions in URL

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/some-ne-state-governme...

 

Charging Electric Vehicles During Freezing Conditions

 

A 3-layer tape (cathode, separator and anode) is wound on a core to make a battery cell.

An EV battery pack has several thousand cells. The cells are arranged in strings, i.e., in series, to achieve the desired voltage

The strings are arranged in parallel to achieve the desired amps.

Power, in Watts = Volts x Amps

 

EV Normal Operation at 32F and below: On cold/freezing days, EVs would use on-boardsystems to heat the battery, as needed, during daily operation

 

EV Parking at 32 F and below: When at home, it is best to keep EVs plugged in during periods at 32F and below, whether parked indoors or outdoors.

When parking at an airport, which may not have enough charging stations, it is best to fully charge EVs prior to parking, to enable the on-board systems to heat the battery during parking, as needed.

 

Charging at 32F and below: Li-ion batteries must never be charged when the batterytemperature is at 32F or below. Do not plug it in. Turn on “pre-conditioning”, to enable the battery heating/cooling system (which could be a heat pump) to very slowly heat up the battery to about 40F. After the battery is “up to temperature”, normal charging can be started, either at home, or at a fast-charging rate on the road.

 

If the battery does not have enough charge to heat itself at about 40F, it needs to be heated by an external heat source, such as an electric heater under the battery, or towed/driven to a warm garage. All this, while cumbersome, needs to be done to safeguard the expensive battery.

 

Pre-conditioning can be set to:

 

1) Preheat the cabin and/or seats

2) Defrost windshield wipers, windows, door handles and charge port, etc., in case of freezing rain conditions; newer Teslas have charge port heaters. See URL

3) Pre-heat the battery, before arriving at a fast charger.

https://getoptiwatt.com/news/tesla-extreme-weather-considerations-h...

 

Power Outage, while parked at 32F and below: During a power outage, partially charged batteries, connected to dead chargers, could use much of their remaining charge to keep the batteries at about 40F.

If the power is restored, and the EV is plugged in, charging must never begin, unless the battery temperature is 35 to 40F

See URLs.

 

During charging, Li-ions (pos.) are absorbed by the anode (pos.) at decreasing rates as the battery temperature decreases from 32F

Any excess Li-ions arriving at the anode will plate out on the anode and permanently reduce the absorption rate.

 

The plating is not smooth, like chrome plating; it is roughish and may have dendrites, which could penetrate the thin separator between the anode and cathode, and cause a short and a fire.

 

A similar condition exists, if charging from 0 to 20% and from 80 to 100%; the more often such charging, the greater the anode resistance to absorbing Li-ions, and the greater the likelihood of plating.

 

The plating condition is permanent, i.e., cannot be reversed.

 

Also, frequently charging from 0 to 20% and from 80 to 100%, increases the charging percentage, increases kWh/mile of travel, and reduces range.

 

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/06/12/electric-bus-inferno-in-hano...

https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/263036/why-charging...

https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/charging_at_high_and_lo...

 

NOTE:

- EV batteries have miscellaneous losses to provide electricity to on-board systems

- On cold/freezing days, an electric bus should be ready for service as soon as the driver enters the bus

- On cold/freezing days, the bus driver would need at least 70% charge, because travel would require more kWh per mile

 

NOTE:

If the battery temperature is less than 40F or more than 115F, it will use more kWh/mile of travel

The best efficiency, charging and discharging, is at battery temperatures of 60 to 80F.

Batteries have greater internal resistance at lower temperatures and at high temperatures.

Pro-bus folks often point to California regarding electric buses, but in New England, using electric buses to transport children would be a whole new ballgame, especially on colder days. See URLs

 

https://www.wired.com/story/electric-cars-cold-weather-tips/

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1127610_keep-your-parked-elect...

 

EV Electricity Supply: Where would the electricity come from, to charge and protect from cold, expensive batteries during extended electricity outages/rolling blackouts, due to multi-day, hot and cold weather events, with minimal wind and solar, as occur in New England throughout the year?

Would charging electricity be supplied by emergency standby diesel-generators, or emergency standby batteries?

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APPENDIX 4

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EXCERPT from:

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POOR ECONOMICS AND MINIMAL CO2 REDUCTION OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN NEW ENGLAND

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/poor-economics-of-elec...

 

This article describes the efficiency of electric vehicles, EVs, and their charging loss, when charging at home and on-the-road, and the economics, when compared with efficient gasoline vehicles.

  

In this article,

 

Total cost of an EV, c/mile = Operating cost, c/mile + Owning cost, c/mile, i.e., amortizing the difference of the MSRPs of an EV versus an equivalent, efficient gasoline vehicle; no options, no destination charge, no sales tax, no subsidies.

 

CO2 reduction of equivalent vehicles, on a lifetime, A-to-Z basis = CO2 emissions of an efficient gasoline vehicle, say 30 to 40 mpg - CO2 emissions of an EV

 

SUMMARY

 

Real-World Concerns About the Economics of EVs

 

It may not be such a good idea to have a proliferation of EVs, because of:

 

1) Their high initial capital costs; about 50% greater than equivalent gasoline vehicles.

2) The widespread high-speed charging facilities required for charging "on the road".

3) The loss of valuable time when charging "on the road".

4) The high cost of charging/kWh, plus exorbitant penalties, when charging “on-the-road”.

 

High-Mileage Hybrids a Much Better Alternative Than EVs

 

The Toyota Prius, and Toyota Prius plug-in, which get up to 54 mpg, EPA combined, would:

 

1) Have much less annual owning and operating costs than any EV, for at least the next ten years.

2) Have minimal wait-times, as almost all such plug-ins would be charging at home 

3) Be less damaging to the environment, because their batteries would have very low capacity, kWh

4) Impose much less of an additional burden on the electric grids.

 

Hybrid vehicles, such as the Toyota Prius, save about the same amount of CO₂ as electric cars over their lifetime, plus:

 

1) They are cost-competitive with gasoline vehicles, even without subsidies.

2) They do not require EV chargers, do not induce range anxiety, can be refilled in minutes, instead of hours. 

3) Climate change does not care about where CO₂ comes from. Gasoline cars are only about 7% of global CO2 emissions. Replacing them with electric cars would only help just a little, on an A to Z, lifetime basis.

 

“Electrify Everything”; an easily uttered slogan

 

It would require:                                                                     

 

- Additional power plants, such as nuclear, wind, solar, hydro, bio

- Additional grid augmentation/expansion to connect wind and solar systems, and to carry the loads for EVs and heat pumps

- Additional battery systems to store midday solar output surges for later use, i.e., DUCK-curve management.

- Additional command/control-orchestrating (turning off/on appliances, heat pumps, EVs, etc.) by utilities to avoid overloading distribution and high voltage electric grids regarding:

 

1) Charging times of EVs and operating times of heat pumps

2) Operating times of major appliances

3) Demands of commercial/industrial businesses

 

CO2 Reduction of an EV, based on real-world values

 

According to the Haas study, EVs are driven an average of 7,000 miles/y, compared to 12,000 miles/y for the US and VT LDV mix.

The difference holds for: 1) all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, 2) single- and multiple-vehicle households, and 3) inside and outside California. See URL

 

This means, as a fleet, EVs would reduce much less CO2 /y, than envisioned by the dream scenarios of RE folks.

 

However, despite the lesser CO2 reduction, EVs are a way to significantly reduce CO2 emissions over the next 10 years.

 

In 2020, about 123.73 billion gallons of finished motor gasoline were consumed in the United States.

In 2020 EVs and plug-in hybrids reduced gasoline consumption by 0.5 billion gallon.

It would take decades to achieve a 60 billion reduction due to EVs and plug-in hybrids.

 

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=23&t=10

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/09/13/how-much-do-electric-vehicles-...

 

However, increasing the mileage, mpg, of the VT LDV mix from 22.715 to 35 mpg, such as with highly reliable, very-long-range, 54 mpg, non-plug-in Toyota hybrids, could be achieved at far less cost, and would reduce CO2 at least as much as EVs. See URLs.

 

http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/ldavis/Davis%20AEL%202019.pdf

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a35498794/ev-owners-low-mileage-s...

 

EV sales have been trending towards longer ranges. See table 3

EVs, with longer ranges, such as Teslas, are driven more miles per year, on average.

Thus, we can expect the 7,000 miles/y to increase over time.

This article used 9,000 miles/y

 

Comments on Table

 

Summary table 1 shows the CO2 emissions for four vehicles, lifetime, A-to-Z basis.

The table shows higher-mileage gasoline and hybrid vehicles have CO2 emissions comparable with equivalent EVs.

It was assumed 20% of charging would be on the road and 80% at home.

The Model Y kWh/mile values were prorated from real-world Model 3 values.

 

Summary 1/ CO2, Lifetime/A-to-Z basis

Kona

Kona

Model Y

Model Y

Subaru

Toyota

Charging

Road

Home

Road

Home

Outback

Prius L Eco

Fraction

0.2

0.8

0.2

0.8

No plug-in

No plug-in

EPA combined, Model Y

27

27

EPA combined, Model 3

25

25

Mileage, mpg

30

56

CO2, incl. upstream, lb/gal

23.371

23.371

Consumption, wall meter basis, kWh/mile

0.284

0.299

0.335

0.352

Travel, miles/10 years

90000

90000

90000

90000

90000

90000

Total electricity, kWh/10 years

25560

26879

30132

31687

NE grid CO2, wall meter basis, g/kWh

317

317

317

317

g/lb

454

454

454

454

lb/Mt

2204.62

2204.62

2204.62

2204.62

2204.62

2204.62

Total CO2, Mt/10 years

8.095

8.513

9.543

10.036

Total CO2, location adjusted, Mt/10 years

1.619

6.810

1.909

8.029

Total CO2, Mt/10 years

8.430

9.937

31.803

17.037

Embodied vehicle body CO2, Mt

5.700

5.700

5.700

5.700

Embodied battery CO2, Mt

10.100

13.358

0.800

Total CO2, Mt/10 years

24.230

28.995

37.503

23.537

Total CO2, Mt/y

2.423

2.900

3.750

2.354

CO2, g/mile

269

322

417

262

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APPENDIX 5
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Excerpt from:
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ELECTRIC TRANSIT AND SCHOOL BUS SYSTEMS REDUCE LITTLE CO2, ARE NOT COST-EFFECTIVE

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/electric-bus-systems-l...

 

China has made electric buses and EVs a priority in urban areas to reduce excessive air pollution, due to: 1) coal-fired power plants, and 2) increased vehicle traffic.

 

The US has much less of a pollution problem than China, except in its larger urban areas. 

The US uses much less coal, more domestic natural gas, and CO2-free nuclear is still around.

 

New England has a pollution problem in its southern urban areas.

Vermont has a minor pollution problem in Burlington and a few other urban areas.

 

RE folks want to “Electrify Everything”; an easily uttered slogan

 

It would require:                                                                     

 

- Additional power plants, such as nuclear, wind, solar, hydro, bio

- Additional grid augmentation/expansion to connect wind and solar systems, and to carry the loads for EVs and heat pumps

- Additional battery systems to store midday solar output surges for later use, i.e., DUCK-curve management.

- Additional centralized, command/control/orchestrating (turning off/on appliances, heat pumps, EVs, etc.) by utilities to avoid overloading distribution and high voltage electric grids regarding:

 

1) Charging times of EVs and operating times of heat pumps, and major appliances

2) Demands of commercial/industrial businesses

 

RE Folks Want More EVs and Buses Bought With “Free” Money

 

RE folks drive the energy priorities of New England governments. RE folks want to use about $40 million of “free” federal COVID money and Volkswagen Settlement money to buy electric transit and school buses to deal with a minor pollution problem in a few urban areas in Vermont. RE folks urge Vermonters to buy:

 

Mass Transit Buses

Electric: $750,000 - $1,000,000 each, plus infrastructures, such as indoor parking, high-speed charging systems.

Standard Diesel: $380,000 - $420,000; indoor parking and charging systems not required.

 

School Buses

Electric: $330,000 - $375,000, plus infrastructures

Standard Diesel: about $100,000

https://atlaspolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Electric-Buses-a...

  

This article shows the 2 Proterra transit buses in Burlington, VT, would reduce CO2 at very high cost per metric ton, and the minor annual operating cost reduction would be overwhelmed by the cost of amortizing $million buses that last about 12 to 15 years.

 

The $40 million of “free” money would be far better used to build zero-energy, and energy-surplus houses for suffering households; such housing would last at least 50 to 75 years.

  

NOTE: Spending huge amounts of borrowed capital on various projects that 1) have very poor financials, and 2) yield minor reductions in CO2 at high cost, is a recipe for 1) low economic efficiency, and 2) low economic growth, on a state-wide and nation-wide scale, which would 1) adversely affect Vermont and US competitiveness in markets, and 2) adversely affect living standards and 3) inhibit unsubsidized/efficient/profitable job creation.

.
.
APPENDIX 6
.
“BUILD BACK BETTER” WOULD COST $4.490 TRILLION OVER THE NEXT DECADE, IF PROVISIONS WERE MADE TO LAST 10 YEARS

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/build-back-better-woul...

 

DISTRUST IN GOVERNMENT

 

I am not surprised at the lack of public trust in Washington, DC, and elsewhere. The games of smoke and mirrors played in Washington are off-the-charts outrageous.

 

Never, ever, has there been such a level of deceit, as Democrats have inflicted on the US People, since January 2021, using a controversial election in 2020 (see Appendix), to obtain government power, to relentlessly implement:

 

- An increased size and intrusiveness of the federal government

- A major change in US demographics by means of just-walk-in, anybody-is-welcome, open borders

- Increased Democrat command/control over the federal government and the American people to “Remake America”

 

However, Dem/Progs made a major mistake.

 

- They intended to use top-down, command/control of the very-inefficient federal government to very-expensively “Remake America”.

- Their strategy is a highly un-American approach, significantly different from the history of US economic development.

- They never mentioned the words “private enterprise”.

 

In contrast, Trump’s “Make America Great Again” specifically did not rely on government. MAGA relied on:

 

- Eliminating business-stifling government rules and regulations

- Freeing up the creative energies of the American people

- Putting America and the American people first again, within secure borders

 

Here is an example of Dem/Progs trying to force their visions onto the American people by various underhanded methods.

  

PHASE 1; BBB PROGRAMS HAVE VARIOUS EXPIRATION DATES TO UNDERSTATE COST 

 

BBB Bill “Shaping” and Cost Estimating

 

The cost of the original BBB bill was $6.0 trillion, as crafted by extreme-leftist Sanders, Chairman of the US Senate Budget Committee. When his proposals proved to be a non-starter, he was told to “whittle it down” to an alleged $3.5 trillion, which, he declared, was the “absolute minimum”.

 

Whittled down means, he shortened the duration of some programs from 10 years to 1 year, or 2 years, etc., as explained in next sections. See table 4

 

NOTE: Sanders is a life-long admirer of Communism and Socialism, who celebrated his honeymoon in the USSR, i.e., before the Iron Curtain came down

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/video-of-shirtless-Sanders-...

 

BBB Overwhelmingly a Social Program Bill

 

The cost of 16 social programs would be $3.477 trillion, or 77.5% of $4.490 trillion, if all programs last 10 years

Two of the 16 social programs would represent 67.3% of the social program cost. See table 1

 

Table 1/Social Programs

Start 2022 - End 2031

Start 2022 - End 2032

10 years

10 years

Program

  $Billion

  $Billion

Expanded child tax credit (CTC)

1597

Expanded child care and preschool

752

Total, per CBO

2349

Total all social programs, per CBO

3477

Allocated interest

129

206

Total

2478

3683

Total, %

67.3


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Comment by Penny Gray on January 10, 2022 at 5:01pm

This is a glimpse of what could happen here and did happen in Pakistan just a few days ago when people were trapped in the cars during snowstorm: https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/08/asia/pakistan-muree-snowstorm-death-...

Comment by Willem Post on January 10, 2022 at 4:26pm

Thinklike,

I can relate to Mark Twain

Comment by Thinklike A. Mountain on January 10, 2022 at 12:48pm

Comment by Willem Post on January 8, 2022 at 7:36am

MAKE NEW ENGLAND GREAT AGAIN

THIS SIMILAR TO DEFORESTATION OF THE 1800s, but nothing grows back for at least 25 years!!!

Comment by Kenneth Capron on January 5, 2022 at 7:43pm

Gotta love these little glimpses of the future with E.V.s
Heating up an EV can't be as efficient as warming up a real car. At least with gas I can suck some gas from your tank just to hold me through. Try that Elon Musk>

How many people were desperately seeking a cup of coffee and a bathroom?

Comment by Penny Gray on January 5, 2022 at 7:39pm

Ever since I went off the road in Labrador en route to a sled dog race in early 90's, I've carried enough gear, food and provisions in my truck to live a couple months, and feed the dogs, too.  Humans are very naive and vulnerable.  Frightening how little it takes to  turn our civilized world upside down.  It'll be a long time before I give up the security of fossil fuels...and those three wick candles that will hang from the rear view mirror and heat the crew cab of a drafty old truck.

Comment by Willem Post on January 5, 2022 at 7:24pm

Eskutassis,

Thank  you

I will weave part of your comment into my scenario

Comment by Eskutassis on January 5, 2022 at 6:22pm

The first thing I thought of when I saw the story Tuesday, and all the time those cars and trucks had sat in one place was I sure hope there wasn't anyone in that mess with an EV. Winter and EVs don't mix. While we rarely need A/C in the summer here, we sure do need heat in the winter and that is a huge drain on the EV system. If you were to have one of the "cheaper" EVs that only gets 150 - 200 miles per charge, you would be lucky to get 75 miles with the heater running, and standing still you would only get a couple of hours. And dead EV batteries are never the same if drained and frozen.  

Comment by Willem Post on January 5, 2022 at 6:17pm

From Jan van Eyck

And this is why you have these gasoline-powered snowmobiles, to go rescue people stuck in snowstorms in their electric cars.

.

And Swiss Huts with wood stoves, to keep the rescued nice and warm. 
.
And why chicken soup was invented, although if you are up in Maine, it would be chowdah!
Comment by Penny Gray on January 5, 2022 at 5:40pm

Willem Post, you are a national and universal treasure.  Keep posting, please. I must admit you're way smarter than I am, but I'm smart enough to recognize genius.

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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Sign up today and lend your voice and presence to the steadily rising tide that will soon sweep the scourge of useless and wretched turbines from our beloved Maine countryside. For many of us, our little pieces of paradise have been hard won. Did the carpetbaggers think they could simply steal them from us?

We have the facts on our side. We have the truth on our side. All we need now is YOU.

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

 -- Mahatma Gandhi

"It's not whether you get knocked down: it's whether you get up."
Vince Lombardi 

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

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