WIND AND SOLAR HYPE VERSUS REALITY

During the past few years, the media have often published about the decreasing prices of wind and solar. The lay public who reads these stories are intentionally left with the impression the more wind and solar, the lower electricity prices will become. The real world facts show it actually is the opposite.

Increasing Electricity Prices With Increased Wind and Solar

 

During the 2009 and 2017 period:

 

- The price of solar panels per watt decreased by 75%

- The price of wind turbines per watt decreased by 50%

 

However, the prices of electricity in places that deployed significant wind and solar increased dramatically. See figure 7 in euanmearns URL, which shows Denmark and Germany with much higher household electric prices than the rest of the EU.

 

Up 51% in Germany during its expansion of solar and wind energy from 2006 to 2016;

Up 24% in California during its solar energy build-out from 2011 to 2017. See Appendix.

Up over 100% in Denmark since 1995 when it began deploying renewables (mostly wind) in earnest.

 

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68925.pdf

https://about.bnef.com/blog/wind-turbine-prices-u-s-plummet-faster-...

http://euanmearns.com/an-update-on-the-energiewende/

 

http://environmentalprogress.org/germany/

http://www.pfbach.dk/firma_pfb/pfb_skyrocketing_electricity_cost_20...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Denmark#/media/File:Win...,

Low Prices for Coal, Gas, Oil, and Nuclear Fuels Reduces Economic Impacts of Wind and Solar

 

In the US, natural gas prices decreased by 72% between 2009 and 2016, due to the fracking revolution.

In Europe, natural prices decreased a little less than 50% over the same period.

The prices of nuclear and coal in those places were mostly flat during the same period.

 

Nuclear leaders, such as Illinois, France, Sweden and South Korea enjoy some of the cheapest electricity in the world. Since 2010, California closed one nuclear plant (2,140 MW) and Germany closed 5 nuclear plants and 4 other reactors at currently operating plants (10,980 MW in total).

 

- Illinois electricity is 42 percent cheaper than in California, an RE leader.

- France electricity is 45 percent cheaper than in Germany and Denmark, RE leaders.

 

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29552

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/archivenew_ngwu/2016/07_14/

 

The lower fuel prices reduced increases in wholesale electricity prices, but those reductions were partially offset by the increasing costs of wind and solar, and partially offset by shifting costs to household electric rates; Denmark and Germany are highly visible examples. Had these fuel prices not decreased, the wind and solar adverse impacts on wholesale and household electricity prices would have been much greater.

Low Cost of Capital Reduces Economic Impacts of Wind and Solar

 

The economic impacts of the cost of: 1) build-outs of renewables (mostly wind and solar), 2) grid reinforcements/augmentations/extensions, 3) storage systems, 4) demand management systems, 5) performing the normal peaking, filling-in and balancing by the remaining traditional generators, and 6) dealing with the worsening duck curves in California, Germany, etc., have been significantly decreased, because of historically low interest rates during the past 10 years. Had those interest rates been at normal levels, the wind and solar adverse impacts on wholesale and household electricity prices would have been much greater.

The Cost of Duck Curves due to Solar

 

Duck curves are entirely due to too much solar generation during midday, i.e., a midday Tsunami*. This requires the traditional generators to significantly ramp down their outputs. However, in late afternoon/early evening, solar being minimal, these same generators have to significantly ramp up their outputs to meet peak demand. The daily down and up ramping severely stresses 1) the traditional generators (causing more wear and tear, more Btu/kWh, more CO2/kWh) and 2) the grid.

Grid operators have three approaches to deal with the duck curve, all of which are costly. However, the costs will not be charged to solar system owners, as that would impair the fantasy of solar being low-cost. The approaches are:

 

1) Having an adequate mix of traditional plant capacities to enable changing grid operational practices and have more frequent power plant cycling (up and down ramping at part load), and more frequent cold starts and stops, and increased synchronous hot standby capacity, etc.

2) Shifting part of demand to midday so solar can meet parts of the load that would not normally be present in the middle of the day.

3) Requiring owners of rooftop solar, mostly residential, and owners of field-mounted solar, mostly utilities, to have adequate battery system capacity to store their midday solar electricity, instead of just dumping it onto the grid for the owners of traditional generators to deal with.

* A large Tsunami, if clear skies; a variable Tsunami, if variable cloudiness; a lesser Tsunami, if overcast; a near-zero Tsunami, if snow and ice on most of the panels, in early morning, in late afternoon; a zero Tsunami, if at night. The celebrating (aka hyping) and subsidizing of that kind of troublesome electricity, and equating it with the steady, 24/7/365 electricity of traditional plants is far beyond rational.

NOTE: Figure 2 in the URL shows an up-ramp of about 13000 MW in 3 hours, or 40,000 MWh, delivered as AC to high voltage grids. If all coal, gas, oil and nuclear plants were shut down (100% RE aficionados recumbent it), and wind and solar were near zero in late afternoon/early evening (a frequent occurrence), and almost all of the electricity were supplied by battery systems, the capital cost would be at least 40000 x 1000 x $400/kWh = $16 billion. The battery systems have an AC-to-AC round-trip loss of about 20%, and would need to be charged and discharged several times during the other 21 hours (electricity supplied by wind, solar, bio and hydro?). See Appendix.

https://www.caiso.com/Documents/FlexibleResourcesHelpRenewables_Fas...

NOTE: These three articles show the TWh-scale storage required to cover not just daily variation of wind and solar, but also multi-day wind and solar lulls, and seasonal variations.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/electricity-storage-to-...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/seasonal-pumped-hydro-s...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-example-of-elec...

Duck Curves Everywhere? With the possible exception of those in equatorial latitudes, every jurisdiction in the world that commits to include more than, say, 20% solar in its future generation mix likely will reach a duck curve threshold where daily ramping and storage/curtailment/load-shifting requirements become unmanageable and too expensive.

The level at which this threshold is reached will vary depending on local conditions, but it will generally be lower at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes, and could be as low as 10% at high latitudes; German solar in 2017 = 39.9/654.8 = 6% of total generation; wind 106.6/654.8 = 16.3% of total generation.

NOTE: For now, Germany still manages 6%, because it is “allowed” to spread its excess solar electricity at near zero or negative wholesale prices to nearby grids. See appendix for solar legacy cost/kWh.

http://www.ag-energiebilanzen.de 

As much of the world’s electricity is generated and consumed at higher latitudes (40 - 60) one has to question whether solar isn’t more trouble than it’s worth.

 

http://euanmearns.com/the-california-duck-curve-isnt-confined-to-ca...

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/3/20/17128478/solar...

RE aficionados and Reality

 

RE aficionados often repeat the wholesale prices of wind and solar have decreased to about 5 c/kWh during the past 10 years and are now competitive with fossil also about 5 c/kWh. However, that is only true:

 

- Because wind and solar are highly subsidized, and only in

- Windy areas, such as the Great Plains and Texas, and sunny areas, such as the US Southwest, and because of

- Shifting of various costs to ratepayers and taxpayers and added to federal and state debts. See below sections and appendix.

 

Wind and solar are cripples, because they require gas and hydro plants, and battery systems, or other forms of reliable, on demand, electricity that is instantly ready to perform peaking, filling-in and balancing services when wind and solar are insufficient.

 

Germany, California, and Denmark are paying neighboring nations or states to take their wind and solar electricity when they are producing too much of it, due to the unreliability of wind and solar. On the European grid:

 

- The economic value of wind decreases about 40%, at about 30% penetration on the grid.

- The economic value of solar decreases about 50%, at about 15% penetration on the grid.

https://www.neon-energie.de/Hirth-2013-Market-Value-Renewables-Sola...

 

In 2017, the wind and solar share was 53% in Denmark, 26% in Germany, and 23% in California. Denmark and Germany have the first and second most expensive electricity in Europe.

 

Fuel Cost and CO2 Reduction due to Wind Less than Claimed

 

Analyses of the operating data of the Irish and Australian grids show the more wind on the grid, the less its effectiveness reducing fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Providing the Irish grid (or German grid, etc.) with additional connections to nearby grids (which likely are much larger and have much lower percent wind on their grids) merely spreads the problem to those grids, which makes it disappear in the noise of the data. See URL.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fuel-and-co2-reductions...

 

Ignorance or Grand Deception by the Media

 

By endlessly reporting on the decreasing costs of wind turbines and solar panels, but not on how wind and solar increase electricity prices, journalists/reporters are intentionally or unintentionally misleading policymakers and the lay public about those two technologies.

 

Last year, the Los Angeles Times reported California’s electricity prices were increasing, but failed to connect the price increase to renewables, provoking a sharp rebuttal from UC Berkeley economist James Bushnell.

 

“The story of how California’s electric system got to its current state is a long and gory one,” Bushnell wrote, but “the dominant policy driver in the electricity sector has unquestionably been a focus on developing renewable sources of electricity generation.”

 

http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-fi-electricity-capacity/

https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2017/02/21/breaking-news-califor...

 

A major part of the problem is almost all journalists/reporters writing about energy have little understanding of electrical systems. They (and legislatures and the lay public) are easily swayed/bamboozled by clever bureaucrats and lobbyists parceling out biased/distorted/deficient information. They think of electricity as a commodity, whereas, in fact, it is more like a service; like eating at a restaurant.

 

This likely also is a problem of personal bias, not just of ignorance of electricity systems. Normally objective, skeptical journalists/reporters routinely give renewables a pass.

 

- They likely do not want to critically report on renewable energy, as it is not politically correct, and their editors/publishers may not approve, and job security.

- They dutifully repeat the derogatory mantras regarding non-renewable energy, as in dirty coal, dangerous nuclear.

 

Reporters have an obligation to accurately and fairly report on all issues they cover, especially ones as important as energy and the environment. A good start would be for them to find out why wind and solar are making the mix of electricity more expensive, if solar and wind systems are becoming so cheap.

 

An Analogy of Eating Out and Electricity

 

The price we pay for eating out includes the cost of:

 

- Ingredients (most of which have decreased for decades, as did the cost of wind turbines and solar panels).

- Meal preparation by a staff in a kitchen.

- Delivery of meals by a staff in a dining room.

 

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-...

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-...

 

In an electrical system:

 

- The ingredient is the electricity fed to the grid.

- Regarding preparation, if the electricity is steady (not variable and not intermittent, as are wind and solar), with steady voltage, frequency and phase angle, very little preparation is required. If the electricity is variable and intermittent, more and more preparation, and grid expansions/reinforcements, and storage are required as wind and solar increase on the grid.

- Delivery of the electricity, 24/7/365, is by means of the grid under the supervision of a grid operator.

 

High Electricity Prices for RE in New England

 

The highly subsidized wholesale prices of wind and solar paid by utilities to producers are much higher than in the rest of the US, because of New England’s mediocre wind and solar conditions.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/subsidized-solar-system...

 

- Onshore/ridgeline wind about 9.5 c/kWh

- Offshore wind about 21 c/kWh

- Large-scale, field-mounted, competitively auctioned solar about 13.5 c/kWh

- Residential, roof-mounted solar about 19 c/kWh

 

NOTE: The above prices would be about 50% higher without the subsidies and even higher without cost shifting. See Appendix.

NOTE: Here is an ISO-NE graph which shows for very few hours during a 13-y period were wholesale prices higher than 6 c/kWh. Those prices are low because of low-cost gas, low-cost nuclear and low-cost hydro. The last four peaks were due to:

- Pipeline constraints, aggravated by the misguided recalcitrance of pro-RE Governors of NY and MA

- Pre-mature closings of coal and nuclear plants

- Lack of more robust connections to nearby grids, such as New York and Canada. See URLs.


https://www.iso-ne.com/about/key-stats/markets/

http://truenorthreports.com/rolling-blackouts-are-probably-coming-t...

Overbuilding and Export/Import and Curtailment

 

RE aficionados say, just over build “low-cost”, highly subsidized, wind and solar so there will be plenty of “low-cost” electricity, even when the wind is barely blowing and the sun is barely shining, and even with snow and ice on most of the panels. 

 

That likely would be very expensive with one 4-day wind lull, followed a few days later by another 4-day wind lull, not an unusual occurrence in New England during December through March, with solar near zero most of the time and with snow and ice on most of the panels. Large-scale storage would be required, after the future closings of coal, gas, oil, and nuclear plants. See URL.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/electricity-storage-to-...;

 

RE aficionados say, when the wind IS blowing and the sun IS shining, just curtail the excess electricity, or export any surplus electricity at near-zero or negative prices, as Germany and Denmark have been doing for decades; the excessive exports could upset the grids of neighbors.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-true-cost-of-wind-e...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-true-cost-of-solar-...

France and Germany

 

France generates about 80% of all its generation by nuclear. It has balanced all of its generation with its own generators for decades. No imports or exports, no curtailments, etc., were required.

 

Next-door Germany exports when it is windy and sunny, i.e., overproduces, and imports when it is not windy and sunny, i.e., underproduces.

 

Germany is using adjacent grids as a crutches/safety valves, because Germany's remaining traditional generators can no longer deal with the variable wind and solar production.

 

Germany and Denmark, both RE leaders, with highest household electric rates in the EU (about 30 eurocent/kWh) have been practicing such expensive follies for at least 20 years. As there is no free lunch, except in RE LaLaLand, their subsidy costs:

 

- Show up as surcharges, taxes and fees, mostly on household electric bills. Industry and commerce are mostly spared for competitive reasons.

- Show up as higher prices for goods and services.

- Are added to the national debt and state debts.

 

Other Measures

 

RE aficionados say, if there is still not enough electricity, just apply “demand management”, and/or import via tie lines, likely at higher wholesale prices. This article shows demand management, aka, demand response, has not worked in Denmark and California.

http://euanmearns.com/why-demand-response-wont-work/

RE aficionados also root for increased energy efficiency, and plug-in hybrids, and plug-in EVs, and cold-climate heat pumps, as they would help achieve New England CO2 reduction goals.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/heat-pumps-oversold-by-...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/evs-and-plug-in-hybrids...

 

The Economic Viability of Traditional Generators

 

The traditional generators have to provide more and more peaking, filling-in and balancing services as wind and solar increase, and have to run their plants less efficiently (more Btu/kWh, more CO2/kWh), as they ramp up and down at part load, and have to sell less electricity per year, and will get too low prices for their smaller production to remain financially viable.

 

Shutting Down Coal, Gas, Oil and Nuclear Plants

 

RE aficionados, who likely never analyzed or designed any energy systems, tell us to shut down the dirty coal, gas, and oil plants and the dangerous nuclear plants, because there will be low-cost storage, at about $100/kWh (the Holy Grail), to perform the peaking, filling-in and balancing services. They likely confuse mass-produced car battery packs with custom-designed utility-scale systems. See next paragraphs.

 

Mass-Produced Battery Packs for Cars

At present, the estimated costs of mass-produced battery packs are as shown in table 1. These battery packs are charged with AC from a wall socket and deliver DC to the motors.

 

Table 1/Item

Chevy Bolt

Tesla Model S

Units

$/kWh

$/kWh

Cells

145

128

Other*

60

62

Battery pack total

205

190

* Other accounts for pack enclosure, module housings, wiring, circuitry, and plumbing for liquid heating/cooling.

NOTE: Above cost estimates cover only the materials and labor costs of the battery pack. They do not include profit and any costs of overhead, invested capital, shipment and installation of the battery pack into a vehicle, and many other costs required to operate a car company. If those costs were added, above battery pack prices would be at least 50% greater.

 

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1103667_electric-car-battery-c...

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1114245_lithium-ion-battery-pa...

 

Utility-Scale Battery Pack Systems: 

 

The turnkey project costs of utility-scale, custom-built, stationary battery systems inserted into an electric grid, likely would be at least $400/kWh, because of much lower order volumes and field conditions. These battery systems are charged with AC from the grid and deliver AC to the grid.

 

The installed cost of the Australian Powerpack system was about $50 million, or 50 million/129,000 = $388/kWh; this is a low price, because Tesla was eager to get the contract. The system battery is paired with French-owned 315 MW Hornsdale Wind Farm. It will help balance the South Australian grid, as well as provide about 60 minutes of emergency power for 30,000 homes in the event of a blackout.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsdale_Wind_Farm

 

Battery Round-Trip Losses: Battery-based electricity storage has about a 20% loss, on an AC-to-AC basis. Connecting all that distributed storage, and O&M, and replacements have losses as well. The more wind and solar on the grid, the more electricity will pass through storage, the greater the losses. RE aficionados say, just overbuild wind and solar some more to offset the storage losses 

 

Replacing Gas, Coal, Oil and Nuclear by Wind and Solar and Storage

 

RE aficionados tell us, the closings of gas, coal, oil, and nuclear plants are necessary to save the world, per Paris COP21 pledges. Those plants would not be available to perform the peaking, filling-in and balancing services. Battery systems can perform these services. The required storage, just for New England, would be about 8 TWh delivered as AC, at a cost of $3752 billion, if $400/kWh, or $938 billion, if $100/kWh (the Holy Grail). See URL for details.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-example-of-elec...

Synchronous Rotational Inertia

 

The closings of the gas, coal, oil and nuclear plants would deprive the grid of its major stabilizing force; wind provides minimal inertia and solar provides none. This aspect has been studied for at least the past 20 years.

- The generators of the closed plants should be used as synchronous condensers.

- Wind and solar should be modified to provide synthetic inertia.

- All inertia would have to be provided by the synchronous condensers, when wind and solar are minimal, as during multi-day wind lulls, during periods with minimal solar, and during periods with snow and ice on most of the panels.

See URL and appendix.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/renewables/can-syntheti...

Cost Shifting is the Name of the Game

 

Here is a list of the costs that are not charged to wind and solar owners, which make wind and solar appear to be much less costly, than in reality:

 

1) The various forms of inertia (presently provided by gas, coal, oil, nuclear, bio and hydro plants).

2) The filling-in, peaking and balancing (due to wind and solar variability/intermittency).

3) Grid-related (grid extensions and augmentations to connect and deal with wind and solar).

4) Utility-scale storage (presently provided by the world’s fuel supply system).

https://www.neon-energie.de/Hirth-2013-Market-Value-Renewables-Sola...

 

Those four items are separate from the high levels of subsidies, which also make wind and solar appear to be much less costly, than in reality. See appendix.

 

All that enables RE aficionados to endlessly proclaim: “Wind and solar are competitive with fossil and nuclear”.

 

APPENDIX 1

Vermont has an anemic, near-zero, real-growth economy, which does not produce enough tax revenues year after year, partially due to the huge RE giveaways, such as: 

 

  1. Federal and state ITCs; upfront giveaways to offset any taxes. 
  2. Federal and state taxes not paid due to rapid depreciation write-offs during the first 6 years 
  3. Federal and state taxes not paid due to loan interest deducted from taxable profits.
  4. School portion of property taxes not paid; households have to pay more.
  5. State sales taxes not paid on some solar system components.
  6. ALL electricity sold to utilities at 13 - 14.5 c/kWh (large-scale, field-mounted solar, mostly owned by multi-millionaires); NE midday wholesale prices are about 6 c/kWh.
  7. Excess electricity sold to utilities at about 19 c/kWh (residential, roof-mounted, mostly owned by rate payers); NE household rates are about 19 c/kWh.

 

The state giving ITC money (extracted from already over-burdened taxpayers) to the tax shelters of multi-millionaires, who own the larger systems, and not collecting taxes due to rapid depreciation write-offs, etc., has resulted in contributing to chronic budget deficits.

 

The state legalizing above subsidies has resulted in higher NE electric rates than they would have been.

 

APPENDIX 2

Money received by investors in the early years, such as upfront federal and state ITCs, is always better than in later years.

The SO projects are structured to provide a risk-free internal rate of return (IRR) of about 9%/y, which is similar to an electrical utility in Vermont, such as GMP. It is quite generous compared to long-term interest rates of 4.5%/y.

During the first 6 years of a solar project, the economic cost is 27.1 c/kWh (using only 3 of the above 6 subsidies to simplify the analysis). Because of rapid solar build-outs, a substantial part of the installed solar capacity is less than 6 years old, and therefore in 27.1 c/kWh mode, in New England. The same is true for wind projects. Wind and solar projects in this mode act as a major drag on economic growth.

 

APPENDIX 3

The above 27.1 c/kWh and 13.036 c/kWh excludes the costs of externalities, such as:

 

– Any peaking, filling-in and balancing performed by the other generators
– Any battery systems to stabilize distribution grids with many solar systems.
– Any measures to deal with DUCK curves, such as utility-scale storage and demand management
– Any grid expansions and augmentations to connect distributed solar systems

 

Those costs, as c/kWh, are not easy to quantify, and as a result they are charged to ratepayers via rate schedules, and to taxpayers. Ultimately, they are reflected in the increased costs of goods and services, which usually act as a headwind to economic growth. There is no free lunch.

 

For example, to bring wind electricity from the Panhandle in west Texas to population centers in east Texas, $7 billion of transmission was built. The entire cost was “socialized” as a surcharge on residential electric bills.

 

http://www.theenergycollective.com/energy-innovation-llc/2420282/ra...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/subsidized-solar-system...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-true-cost-of-solar-...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-true-cost-of-wind-e...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/a-very-expensive-offsho...

 

APPENDIX 4

Various Subsidies for Wind and Solar: Because of the various subsidies, taxpayers and rate payers are forced to pay 1) higher monthly electricity bills, 2) higher prices for goods and services, and 2) taxes to finance various subsidies for wind, solar and other RE producers. Here is a partial list:

 

- The federal ITC, 30% of the qualified portion of the turnkey capital cost. The federal ITC is an upfront, tax credit that can be applied against any of owner’s taxes.

- The state ITC, usually a percentage of the federal ITC. The state ITC is an upfront, tax credit that can be applied against any of owner’s taxes.

- The federal production tax credit, PTC, of 2.4 c/kWh for the first 10 years of operation, a subsidy of 2.4/5 = 48% of the US average wholesale price. No wonder owners are crowing about underbidding traditional generating plants. For example, in areas with good winds, low construction costs and low operation and maintenance costs (Texas, Great Plains), if an owner’s cost is 7.3 c/kWh and he deducts 2.4 c/kWh as PTC, then his bid price could be 4.9 c/kWh, which is sufficient to get the contract, in most cases, and “competitive” with traditional plants.

- The federal and state tax savings due to rapid depreciation write-offs in about 5 to 6 years, much more rapid than normal utility equipment write-off schedules of 10 to 20 years. Having tax savings earlier, instead of later, is financially more advantageous.

- The exemption of equipment purchases from the state sales tax and from the education property tax.

- Selling wind electricity at generous feed in tariffs of about 9 - 10 c/kWh in areas with high capital costs and low capacity factors (CFs), such as New England.

- Selling solar electricity at generous feed in tariffs of about 13.5 - 14.5 c/kWh in areas with high capital costs and low capacity factors, such as New England.

- Selling renewable energy credits, RECs, which lower the utility purchased RE energy cost by up to 50%.

- Loan guarantees by the federal and state government, which lower the interest rate of the funds borrowed from private entities, because the federal and state government assume the risk of the loans.

APPENDIX 5

California’s electricity prices increased 5.7 times faster than the rest of the US during the 2011 - 2017 period, due to the rapid build-outs of wind and solar and storage.

http://environmentalprogress.org/big-news/2018/2/12/electricity-pri...

 

Year

California

US

Times

c/kWh

c/kWh

2011

13.1

9.7

2012

13.5

9.6

2013

14.3

9.8

2014

15.2

10.1

2015

15.4

10.0

2016

15.3

9.9

2016

16.2

10.1

Increase; %

23.7

4.1

5.7

APPENDIX 6

Germany’s Solar Sector Decreases

- Feed-in tariffs for new solar systems (residential rooftop) were about 49.2 eurocent/kWh in 2007; were about 12.2 eurocent/kWh in 2015, 2016 and 2017. Larger-scale ground-mounted were about 8.0 eurocent/kWh in 2015, 2016 and 2017. See figure 4 of Fraunhofer URL.

- Investments for new solar systems were 5.5 b euro in 2007; 19.5 b euro in 2010; were 2.40, 1.62 and 1.58 b euro in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively.

- Solar sector employment was 38,600 in 2007; peaked at 110,900 in 2011; was 31,600 in 2015.

- Annual solar system capacity additions were over 7000 MW in 2010, 2011, and 2012; decreased to 1320, 1490, and 2260 MW in 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively, less than the 2500 MW/y Energiewende goal.

- Annual solar electricity generation slightly increased during 2015, 2016 and 2017, due to decreasing annual capacity additions.

- Legacy solar electricity cost was about 53 eurocent/kWh in 2005 and 2006; slowly decreased to about 27 eurocent/kWh in 2017. That legacy price will be slowly decreasing as about 2000 MW/y is added to the installed capacity. See figure 4 in Fraunhofer URL.

- On a sunny day, much solar electricity is generated at 27 eurocent/kWh, and very little by the other generators at about 5 eurocent/kWh, thus the mix of electricity costs at least 20 eurocent/kWh, and part of that mix is exported at near-zero or negative wholesale prices.

- In 2017, the average FIT was = 0.30 x 12.2 (small rooftop)+ 0.70 x (4.8 + 6.5)/2 (large field mounted) = 7.615 c/kWh, which reduced the solar FIT from 28.1 c/kWh at end 2016 to (40720 x 28.1 + 2260 x 7.615)/42980 = 27 c/kWh at end 2017, a reduction of about 1.0 c/y.

- German household electricity prices were 15 eurocent/kWh in 2000; were about 30 eurocent/kWh in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017. See URL.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/what-german-households-p...

 

http://notrickszone.com/2018/04/21/green-failure-german-solar-indus...

https://www.thegwpf.com/green-mega-flop-german-solar-industry-crash...

https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/en/documents/publicat...

https://www.energy-charts.de/power_inst.htm?year=2014&period=an...

APPENDIX 7

- The renewables surcharge of German household electric bills was 0.88 eurocent/kWh in 2006; was 6.79 eurocent/kWh in 2018. About 50% of that surcharge was for solar subsidies.

- EU-28 average household cost was 21 eurocent/kWh in 2017.

- In Germany and Denmark, wind and solar leaders, household electric rates were 30 and 31 eurocent/kWh, respectively, in 2017.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/what-german-households-p...

APPENDIX 8

Voltage-Regulating Facility for 63 MW Lowell Wind System: According to ISO-NE, because the voltage and frequency variations were too excessive for the local grid, a 27.5 MVAR voltage-regulating facility needed to be installed by GMP. It was located adjacent to the Jay Peak 46 kV switching station, housed in a 40’ x 68’ x 45’5” tall building, surrounded by 70’ x 90’ x 8’ tall fencing.

 

The voltage regulating is performed by a Hyundai-supplied, 62-ton, synchronous-condenser system, operating at 3,600 rpm and at no load, 24/7/365 (high-speed idling, year-round), plus electrical systems for adding or subtracting reactive energy to satisfy below-criteria voltages on the 115 kV transmission system.

 

It requires an 800-hp motor to get it up to speed and maintain it there. The system capital cost was about $10.5 million. During all of 2013 and part of 2014, Lowell was operated in curtailed mode, as required by ISO-NE.

 

S-C systems have energy losses of about 3%, i.e., 97% efficient, plus the facility has its own levelized (Owning + O&M) costs, which adversely affect the project economics. Electricity loss of only the S-C system = 800 hp x 0.746 kW/hp x 8,766 hr/y x 0.03 = 156,946 kWh/y.

http://psb.vermont.gov/sites/psb/files/248j/2013/02.%20Petition.pdf

APPENDIX 9

The Tesla Powerpack system in Australia, the largest in the world, has a rated capacity of 100 MW/129 MWh delivered as AC. The system 1) smoothens the variable output of a nearby 315 MW French-owned wind turbine system, 2) prevents load-shedding blackouts and 3) provides stability to the grid, during times other generators are started in the event of sudden drops in wind or other network issues. Here is an aerial photo of the system on a 10-acre site. The installed cost of the Australian Powerpack system was about $50 million, or 50 million/129,000 = $388/kWh; this is a low price, because Tesla was eager to obtain the contract.

 

https://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/26/teslas-enormous-battery-in-a...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsdale_Wind_Farm

APPENDIX 10

Michael Shellenberger Articles:

 

1) If Renewables Are So Great for the Environment, Why Do They Keep Destroying It?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/05/17/if-ren...

 

2)Solar And Wind Lock-In Fossil Fuels, And That Makes Saving The Climate Harder And More Expensive

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/05/15/solar-...

 

3) California's Solar Roof Law Will Raise Housing And Energy Prices But Do Little To Reduce Emissions

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/05/10/califo...

 

4) We Don't Need Solar And Wind To Save The Climate -- And It's A Good Thing, Too

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2018/05/08/we-don...

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Comment by Marshall Rosenthal on May 7, 2018 at 9:11am

I can only repeat Gary Campbell's comment: Outstanding. Thank you. The RE rort (English word used in Australia and New Zealand) is expanded and explained by Willem Post, whose understanding of the physics, electrical engineering, and the politics of industrial promotion is great. Thank you, again, Willem Post.

Comment by Gary Campbell on May 3, 2018 at 1:38pm

Outstanding. Thank you.

Comment by Paul Ackerman on May 3, 2018 at 1:06pm

Fantastic compilation of this information. I greatly appreciate the effort put into this,it answers so many questions the public is unaware of to date.

I was just reading in the WSJ yesterday about how Tesla is taking a big hit on their Solar City purchase ,and their promised return to their investors (wouldn't I like to know who they are!) may be a financial problem for them because of this.

The article described their business model going from a "lease model" where Tesla financed (via outside investors) the leased photo-voltaic panels to residential consumers,to one in which Tesla is now selling the panels to consumers thru their auto showrooms,and sales have declined markedly.

Gee,what a surprise. Once the "investors" aren't getting the sweetheart tax break plus interest it ain't such a good deal,and consumers who are faced with actually PAYING for the panels without a subsidy are a bit reluctant to shell out their own money.

First Prize

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Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT (excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010  http://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?"  http://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” http://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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