EVS AND PLUG-IN HYBRIDS IN NEW ENGLAND AND NORWAY

EVS AND PLUG-IN HYBRIDS IN NEW ENGLAND AND NORWAY

 

The VT Public Utilities Commission, PUC, working together with self-styled transportation gurus, and RE activists, such as the Conservation Law Foundation CLF, want to subsidize low-income Vermonters to drive electric vehicles.

 

The same RE folks pushing for unilateral carbon taxes also are pushing for subsidies for plug-in EVs and plug-in hybrids, including $350,000 electric school buses, which turned out to provide no/minimal cost savings in Massachusetts.

See Key Findings on page 6 of URL

https://www.mass.gov/files/documents/2018/04/30/Mass%20DOER%20EV%20...

Never mind the electric buses are still in their infancy.

Never mind the buses are un-insulated and sealed, i.e. leaking heat like a sieve.

Vermont, with chronic budget deficits, must have $millions to burn to repeat the Massachusetts follies.

 

Four Wheel Drive A Necessity in Vermont

 

Because of their short electric range, EVs are next to useless in Vermont, especially in winter, on cold days, with snow and ice and no 4WD drive.

If EVs had larger batteries, 60 - 100 kWh, and 4WD, such as a Tesla Model S and Model 3, they would have ample range, but would be muchmore expensive.

Unless EVs had 4WD, they are a non-starter in New England.
Vermont drivers likely would notshell out $40,000 for an EV with an 150-mile range but no4WD.

Vermont drivers need 4WD, SUV plug-ins, 4WD, ¼-ton pick-up plug-ins, and 4WD minivan plug-ins.

I have a moderately steep driveway
I drive a Subaru Outback, 4WD, 30 mpg, just to get out of my driveway and to have good traction during winter and mud season.
My personal physician parks her Nissan Leaf EV in the barn during the winter, because it is a dog in winter.
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/replacing-gasoline-consumption-with-electricity-in-vermont

 

Plug-in Hybrids the Only Rational Choice for Vermonters

 

The only approach that makes any sense in New England is plug-in hybrids with 10 - 15 kWh batteries. They would have an electric range of about 30 - 45 miles (sufficient for most trips), and then automatically switch to gasoline for another 500 miles. Public charging stations would not be required; owners would charge at home using a regular 110 V outlet.

 

Market Penetration:

Here are some facts on plug-ins (EVs and plug-in hybrids)

 

US:

The number of plug-ins on US roads has increased during the past 6 years.

Plug-in sales are expected to be about 250,000, or 1.4% of all light duty vehicle sales at end 2018.

About 47% of US plug-in sales in 2017 were in California.

 

Vermont:

Vermont’s plug-in EVs and plug-in hybrids are rarities.

At end 2018, there could be about 3000, of which 70% would be plug-in hybrids.

The Comprehensive Energy Plan goal is 4700 new plug-in registrations in 2025. See page 164 of CEP. It appears that goal will be achieved without additional subsidies.

https://www.driveelectricvt.com/Media/Default/docs/maps/Vermont_EV_...

 

VT EVs and Plug-in hybrids	EV	Plug-in hybrids	Total	Increase, y-y	EVs/Total
2014	197	670	867		22.7
2015	248	865	1113	246	22.3
2016	330	1192	1522	409	21.7
2017	381	1387	1768	246	21.5
July 2018	793	1819	2612	844	30.4
2018			3000

 

In Vermont, the two vehicles shown in the table totaled about 40% of all plug-in hybrids.

 

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/38495.shtml

https://www.driveelectricvt.com/Media/Default/docs/maps/dev-map-jan...

 

Most popular in Vermont	Battery	Plug-in hybrid mileage	Number
Toyota Prius Prime	8.8 kWh	25 miles electric; 55 city/53 hwy/54 combined hybrid	516
Ford C-Max Energi	7.6 kWh	19 miles electric; 42 city/38 hwy/40 combined hybrid	526

 

Vermont’s 22 fast-charging and 88 slow-charging stations are predominantly clustered in and near three towns: Burlington, Montpelier, and Rutland.

 

The RE activists in these towns would like to have:

 

- More “free” charging stations, located mostly in and near their towns, and have 1) other Vermonters, 2) carbon taxes, and 3) Volkswagen “diesel-gate” settlement money to pay for them.

- The charging electricity to be tax-free, low-cost, or for free

Cost shifting and subsidies are the name of the game to “improve” the payback of plug-ins.

 

https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/06/f32/Vermont%20Case%20St...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_hybrids_in_Californiahttps://...

https://www.fleetcarma.com/ev-sales-usa-2016-final/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wi...

 

Plug-in Driving in VT

 

With snow and ice, and hills, and dirt roads, and mud season, 4-wheel/all-wheel drive vehicles, such as SUVs, ¼-ton pick-ups, minivans, are a necessity in rural areas.

 

Here is a list of plug-ins. Very few have 4-wheel/all-wheel drive and some of them cost 1.5 to 3 times as much as a Subaru Outback, which has all-wheel drive.

http://www.plugincars.com/cars

 

Plug-in EV:

Driving an EV in winter, with snow and ice, and hills, and dirt roads, and mud season, and at low temperature, say - 10 C, with the heat pumps heating the battery and the passenger cabin, would be very sluggish going, unless the EV had a large capacity, kWh, battery. The additional stress would cause increased battery aging and capacity loss.

 

There are EVs, such as the Tesla Model 3, $60,000 - $100,000, with 60 - 100 kWh batteries, which offer road-clearance adjustment and all-wheel drive as options, but they are out of reach of almost all Vermonters.

 

Plug-in Hybrid:

Driving a plug-in hybrid in winter, such as a Toyota Prius Prime, 54 mpg, would be much better, but it does not have 4-wheel/all-wheel drive, a major drawback. The styling is an abomination.

I drive a Subaru Outback, which costs about $27,000, has all-wheel drive and gets about 30 mpg.

Battery Costs

Batteries likely will decrease in cost, because of mass production, and in weight, due to clever packaging (which would decrease rolling resistance). However, the lithium-ion chemistry is pretty well maxed out, according to Musk, CEO of Tesla.

 

Buying Plug-ins and Subsidies

People switching from E10 vehicles to plug-ins likely will not happen anytime soon. There are no compelling CO2 reasons, as shown by the above table, unless the government forces people to do so, which would be a folly, as there are many, less expensive ways, to reduce CO2.

 

It would be best, if the government, law schools, et al., stopped interfering with the people's energy decisions. Global warming will happen no matter what Vermont does.

California

Almost half of US plug-in sales are in California, which has mostly nice weather.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

 

Year/Plug-in sales	US	California	%	US LDV sales
2017	199,826			17,400,000
2016	158,614	75,250	47.4	17,464,800
2015	116,099	62,217	53.6	17,396,300
2014	122,438	59,485	48.6
2013	97,507	42,545	43.6
2012	52,607	20,093	38.2

Norway

 

As of December 2017, the Norwegian light-duty, plug-in fleet consisted 141,951 plug-in EVs, and 67,171 plug-in hybrids. The fleet included more than 24,000 used plug-in vehicles that were imported.

Year	Plug-in registrations (new and used imports)	% of total registrations
2017	71,737	39.2
2016	50,875	29.1
2014	39,632	22.4

Very High Gasoline Prices: Regarding plug-ins, Norway is a special case. Gasoline prices are about 9 - 10/gallon; 70+% is tax. It has plug-in subsidies up to the armpits. With enough subsidies in rich Norway (household income over $105,000/y), the government can make it look like Norwegians are "voluntarily" buying plug-ins.

“What we have proven in Norway is, if you give enough subsidies and impose enough restrictions on fossil fuel vehicles, people will buy electric,” says Andreas Halse, the environmental spokesman in Oslo for the opposition Labor party. But he adds: “If we want to continue to be an example for the rest of the world, we need to show how this can be commercial. We need to get there, because we can’t rely on public finances forever.”

Hans Olav Halvorsen is a government employee who drives the 200 km between Oslo and Lillehammer 2 - 3 times a week. His Tesla Model S is not subject to tolls on the motorway, saving him up to NKr 810 ($105) every week. Charging at one of the 20 Tesla superchargers — there are eight more for other electric cars — is free. More importantly, his Tesla is free from VAT and the high purchase taxes of IC vehicles, such as a BMW — cutting the price roughly in half. “To be honest, the reason for buying the Tesla was a little bit about the environment, but mostly the savings,” he says. “I think most of the owners are thinking about their economy.” According to NEVA, about 72% of buyers are choosing a plug-in for economic reasons, i.e., the generous monetary subsidies, and just 26 per cent for environmental ones.

Taxes on New Cars, Except Plug-ins: Norway taxes cars more heavily than most European countries. For instance, a BMW 5-series, with a four-liter gas engine, attracts a purchase tax of NKr 230,000, bringing its total cost, including VAT, to about NKr 770,000 ($100,100).

 

The basic versions of Tesla’s Model S and Model X, the SUV model, if fully taxed would cost about $150,000 - $160,000. But the price is about the same as a BMW 5-series, if no purchase tax, and no 25% VAT. No wonder Norskis love them EVs!!

 

A proposal to raise the road tax for plug-ins while cutting it for IC cars caused a crisis in the minority center-right government last year.

 

EV drivers may use bus/taxi lanes; a great advantage during peak hour travel on Oslo*.  

EV drivers pay no parking fees, anywhere in the country, except at private garages.

EV drivers pay no tolls on roads, bridges and ferries; a major saving for many drivers.

 

*An Oslo newspaper survey found a total of 829 vehicles used a bus/taxi lane between 7:30 and 8:30 a.m., of which, 618 vehicles were plug-ins (74.5%). Buses were only 7.5% of the traffic, and taxis, two-wheelers and mini-buses made up the rest.

 

Driving Range: Norwegians are not fools; they like plug-ins, but they also like driving range. With a plug-in hybrid, you go electric for about 15 - 25 miles and then you go into hybrid mode, like a Prius, to get a range of 550 miles or more. The electric miles/y of EVs is much less than of ICs and plug-in vehicles.

 

EVs have outsold plug-in hybrids up till 2016. But during 2017, sales of hybrids almost equaled EVs, and are expected to surpass EV sales in 2018.

 

See URLs
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

https://www.ft.com/content/84e54440-3bc4-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23

 

APPENDIX 1

The bashing of the EPA mileage standards is a tempest in a teapot; another opportunity for bashers to do some meaningless grandstanding.

The fleet average of NEW cars (not SUVs, minivans, 1/4-ton pick-ups) was set at 54.5 mpg in model year 2025.
But that assumed:

1) There would be at least 1.5 million of NEW plug-in hybrids and plug-in all electrics, and

2) The phony, inflated EPA MPG-eq. would be averaged into the mix of NEW cars.

That turned out to be a pure fantasy, dreamt up by the EPA and Obama, because THERE WILL NOT BE 1.5 million NEW plug-ins in 2025; even with a $7000 FEDERAL TAX CREDIT per plug-in.
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/subsidized-solar-system...

So the fantasy collapsed. The US car manufacturers were between a rock and a hard place.

To maintain the viability of US car manufacturers, and save MANUFACTURING jobs, Trump/Pruitt had NO CHOICE but to reduce the requirement to about 37 mpg by 2021, which is still is quite a difficult requirement without “help” from millions of NEW plug-ins.

A lot more people will be driving smaller cars, likely made in Europe and East Asia, and SUVs, which have less stringent mileage requirements.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/comparison-of-energy-ef...

http://www.edisonfoundation.net/iei/publications/Documents/IEI_EEI%...(2).pdf

APPENDIX 2

Source Factor of US Electrical System: The US economy was supplied with about 25,451.00 TWh of primary energy in 2013. See Table 6. In this analysis, I used the 2013 emission data in conjunction with the 2013 electricity generation data. 

 

The EIA 2013 emissions data was higher than at present, mainly due to gas replacing coal. It is ironic, I could find the 2016 GERMAN electricity generation data, but not the 2016 US data.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States

 

Item	Table 6	%	TWh
1	Source energy	100.00	27664.00
2	Expl./Extr./Proc./Transp.	8.00	2213.00
3	Primary energy, per URL	92.00	25451.00
3a	Electrical PE = 0.4 of 3, per URL		10180.40
4	Electrical SE = 3a/0.92		11065.65
5	Gross generation		4227.62
6	Self-use	3.82	161.55
7	Net generation to grid, per EIA		4065.97
8	Conversion factor = 7/3a		0.3994
9	Imports, per EIA	1.15	46.74
10	Total to grid, per EIA		4112.71
11	T&D, % of To grid, per EIA	6.50	267.33
12	To electric meters		3845.38
13	System efficiency, PE basis = 12/3a		0.3777
15	System efficiency, SE basis = 12/4		0.3475
16	Source factor = 1/0.3475		2.8776

 

APPENDIX 3

The efficiency of the EV, on a house meter-to-wheel basis, is shown in below table.

 

	Loss, %
Inverter, AC to DC	5.0	0.950
Charger and into battery	10.0	0.900
Out of battery to motor and drivetrain	9.0	0.910
Other losses	10.0	0.900
Real-world efficiency, M-t-W		0.700

 

APPENDIX 4

Efficiency of Battery Electric Vehicles: The energy from mines and wells is fed to the US electrical system, which converts it into electricity and distributes it to house electric meters. The source factor, mine/well to house meter, is 2.8776. Source factor for E10 (90 gasoline/10 ethanol) is 1.2568. Prius mileage is 52 mpg EPA combined. Prius efficiency, tank to wheel is 0.418

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/comparison-of-energy-ef...

 

Source energy, Prius, 52 mpg, mine/well to tank = 1.2568 x 1/0.418 = 3.001 times the energy to tank.

Source energy, IC, 38 mpg, mine/well to tank = 1.2568 x 1/0.306 = 4.107 times the energy to tank

Source energy, EV, mine/well to house meter = 2.8776 x 1/0.700 = 4.111 times the energy to house meter.

Source energy, IC, 25 mpg, mine/well to tank = 1.2568 x 1/0.201 = 6.253 times the energy to tank.

APPENDIX 5

BEVs will in use all over the US and travel across state lines. It is best to perform analyses of BEVs compared to other vehicles based on US grid data (so various analyses can be compared on the same basis), instead of local grid data, which often have different energy mixes and CO2eq/kWh than the US grid. RE proponents might prefer to use the data of a state grid and use politics-inspired, contrived, “accounting” methods to make a state’s energy policies appear to be more effective.

APPENDIX 6

Lifecycle Greenhouse Gases of Vehicles: A lifecycle assessment should cover four distinct phases.

 

1) Vehicle production; to assess embedded CO2
2) In-use phase; to assess CO2 incurred during the driving
3) Disposal at end-of-life
4) Fuel production and delivery processes of electricity generation and gasoline production, depending on vehicle type.

The values in the table are based on:

1) Driving 150,000 km (93,750 miles) during the 15 years of a vehicle’s life

2) IC vehicle fuel being 10% ethanol/90% gasoline blend (E10)

3) Grid CO2 intensity of 500 g CO2/kWh, or 1.10 lb CO2/kWh

 

The embedded greenhouse gases of average vehicles, as a percent of the lifecycle total emissions, in metric ton, are shown in below table. CO2 estimates of the Toyota Prius, Toyota plug-in Prius and Tesla Model S were inserted for comparison purposes. See URL and click on press release.

http://www.triplepundit.com/2011/06/full-life-cycle-assesment-elect... 

Vehicle	Embedded	Driving, etc	Lifecycle
	CO2, Mt	CO2, Mt	CO2, Mt
Average E10 vehicle	5.6 (23%)	18.4	24.0
Average hybrid	6.5 (31%)	14.5	21.0
Hybrid, Prius	6.5 (31%)	12.0	18.5
Average plug-in hybrid	6.7 (35%)	12.3	19.0
Plug-in hybrid, Prius	6.7 (35%)	10.0	16.7
EV, medium-size battery	8.8 (46%)	10.2	19.0
EV, Tesla	11.5 (60%)	10.4	21.9

APPENDIX 7

The average annual miles a vehicle is driven is shown in the table. The average annual miles driven by a driver is 13.476. That means quite a few cars are underused, i.e., many people have two cars, but mostly use one of them.

 

https://www.afdc.energy.gov/data/10309

https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm

 

IC Vehicle type	Annual miles
Light truck	11,712
Light-Duty Vehicle	11,346
Car	11,244

 

Annual miles of EVs and Hybrids Much Less Than IC Vehicles: The below table shows the average annual miles travelled by EVs is 9642, about 28% less than the 13433 of ICs. This is likely due to EVs being mostly used for local trips (because of a lack of range) and ICs being used for local AND longer trips. See table.

 

Plug-in Hybrids, with Large Capacity Batteries: The Chevy-Volt has a large capacity battery and travels, on average, about 75% of its annual miles in electric mode. See table.

 

Plug-in Hybrids, with Small Capacity Batteries: The Honda Accord and Toyota Prius PHEVs have small capacity batteries and travel 22% or less of their annual miles in electric mode. See table

https://insideevs.com/annual-electric-miles-traveled-varies-widely-...

Type	Electric	PHEV	Total	Battery %
Nissan Leaf	9697		9697	100
Ford Focus Electric	9548		9548	100
Honda Fit EV	9680		9680	100
PEV average			9642
ChevyVolt	9112	3126	12238	74
Ford C-Max Energi	4069	8334	12403	33
Ford Fusion Energi	4337	8066	12403	35
Honda Accord	3336	11650	14986	22
Toyota Prius	2484	12652	15136	16
PHEV average			13433
PEV/PHEV, %			72

APPENDIX 8

Lifecycle comparison of PEVs and IC Vehicles: Any 10-year lifecycle comparison regarding cost and CO2eq would need to be with a combination of (72% PEV + 28% ICV) versus 100% ICV. The battery is expected to lose 25% of its capacity, kWh and at least 7% of its efficiency by year 10, which increases cost/mile and CO2eq./mile.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/daily-shifting-of-wind-and-solar-using-battery-systems-in-summer

 

APPENDIX 9

Cradle-to-Gate Comparison of GHG of Ford Focus EV and Ford Focus IC Vehicle: This report covers the first cradle-to-gate emissions assessment for a mass-produced lithium-ion battery pack used in the Ford Focus EV.Published studies of GHG emissions associated with battery production were used to compare and contrast the results of this assessment.

 

The assessment was based on the bill of materials and primary data from the battery industry, that is, energy and materials input data from the battery cell and pack supplier.

- Cradle-to-gate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the 24 kWh Ford Focus lithium-ion battery are 3.4 Mt of CO2-eq (140 kg CO2-eq per kWh or 11 kg CO2-eq per kg of battery).

- Cell manufacturing is the key contributor accounting for 45% of the GHG emissions.

- It is estimated the cradle-to-gate GHG emissions of the Focus EV are 39% greater than of the Focus IC, which falls within the range of literature estimates of 27–63% increases for hypothetical non-production EVs.

- A typical midsize IC would have about 5.6 Mt of embedded CO2eq, and a midsize EV about 8.8 Mt of which about 3.8 Mt CO2eq is the battery.

https://insideevs.com/ford-lg-chem-present-cradle-to-grave-ghg-anal...