DAILY SHIFTING OF WIND AND SOLAR USING BATTERY SYSTEMS IN SUMMER

RE proponents claim New England’s nuclear, gas, oil and coal plants could be shut down, because the following would provide electricity service, 24/7/365, at a minimum reliability of 99.97%:

 

1) Wind and solar

2) Hydro + bio (mostly wood) + refuse + landfill methane

3) Energy storage (mostly batteries)

4) Supply management (including curtailments) and demand management (may include forms of rationing)

5) Energy efficiency

6) Utilizing the batteries of electric vehicles for smoothing the variability of wind and solar.

Their envisioned systems would be “distributed” everywhere. They often claim their approach would have lower electricity costs per kWh, because “wind and solar do not use fuel”. See URLs.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/replacing-nuclear-plant...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/new-england-will-need-t...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-hype-ver...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/green-mountain-power-co...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/evs-and-plug-in-hybrids...

 

Shutting Down Nuclear, Gas, Oil and Coal Plants: That sounds alluring, but would entail huge build-outs of wind and solar, plus a very large capacity of battery storage, at a turnkey capital cost of at least $500 billion (not counting any subsidies, financing costs, decommissioning costs of existing plants, etc.) over a period of at least 20 to 30 years.

 

Per ISO-NE, in 2017, NE total electricity generation was 102532 GWh (84.7% of the system load, 15.3% was imported from NY and Canada).

NE electricity generation by coal, oil, gas and nuclear was 83116 GWh.

RE proponents want to shut down coal, oil, gas and nuclear plants and replace their electricity with wind and solar. See table.

https://www.iso-ne.com/about/key-stats/resource-mix/

 

Direct Equivalent Method

Factor

PE

To Grid

NE generation

Table 2/NE Grid/2017

% of system load

 

GWh

GWh

GWh

Coal

0.3245

5190

1684

 

Oil

0.3427

2031

696

 

Gas

0.4603

106882

49198

 

Total fossil

0.4520

114103

51578

 

Nuclear

1.0000

31538

31538

 

Hydro

1.0000

8572

8572

 

Geo

1.0000

0

0

 

Solar

1.0000

880

880

 

Wind

1.0000

3280

3280

 

Muni Refuse

0.1770

17881

3165

 

Biomass, solid

0.2860

10538

3014

 

Biogas & bio-liquids

0.2620

1874

491

 

Steam

1.0000

0

0

 

Total RE

0.3143

34454

10830

 

Other 

1.0000

14

14

 

Total Generation 

0.5434

188681

102532

84.7

Net Flow over External Ties 

1.0000

20243

20243

 

Québec

1.0000

14401

14401

 

New Brunswick

1.0000

4306

4306

 

New York

1.0000

1536

1536

 

Pumping Load 

1.0000

-1716

-1716

 

Net Energy for Load 

0.5842

207208

121059

 

 

RESULTS OF ANALYSIS

 

Closing down existing nuclear, gas, oil and coal plants would create such a huge shortage of electricity, at least 7000 MW, the NE grid would not have been able to provide electricity service, 24/7/365, at a minimum reliability of 99.97% during at least 5 out of 6 consecutive SUMMER days with overcast skies, rain showers and little wind in June 2018, even after the following measures were implemented:

 

- Increase existing NE wind turbines from 1279 MW (end 2017) by 15.7 times to 20080 MW

- Increase existing NE solar from 2390 MW (end 2017; before the meter, such as rooftop solar, 1500 MW; plus after the meter, such as large-scale, field-mounted, 890 MW) by 15.7 times to 37523 MW

- Install batteries with a capacity of 780,000 MWh (delivered as AC to the high voltage grid)

 

ANALYSIS

 

ISO-NE Real-Time Grid Operating Data: Fortunately, ISO-NE, the New England grid operator, posts real-time data regarding grid operations, every few minutes, on a daily basis. See URL, go to fuel mix graph, click on rectangle with arrow and download the outputs, MW, of the various NE electricity producers connected to the high voltage grid. The real-time load, MW, on the NE grid system is also shown. The second URL shows daily generation percent by source.

 

https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/web/charts

2018_daygenbyfuel_SUMMARIZED.xlsx

 

NOTE: It is best to download the daily data just before midnight to capture almost all of the data for that day. If one waits until after midnight, a new list of data appears, and the prior list is not visible on the URL. The data likely is somewhere else, but I have not been able to find it.

DAY 1

A Day With Cloudy Weather, Some Rain Showers and Little Wind

 

The data downloaded for 23 June 2018 covered a day with cloudy weather, with some rain showers, and little wind. Because RE proponents want to shut down nuclear, gas, oil and coal plants, I deleted their outputs. See note.

 

This caused a big shortfall (7098 MW) between demand and production at about 1 AM. However, if wind had been increased by a factor of 15.7, the shortfall would become zero. Wind produced more than was needed by demand until about 6 AM. The surplus was stored into new battery systems.

 

Increasing demand and decreasing wind caused a shortfall of 1395 MW at 7 AM; solar was barely present. Solar started about 6 AM, reached a maximum at 11 AM and disappeared at 8 PM. Even if solar had been increased by a factor of 15.7, the shortfall would be reduced from 1395 MW to 1268 MW. Shortfalls continued for the rest of the day, accumulating to 62,610 MWh. See table 2. This was a battery-discharging day.

 

NOTE: Nuclear, gas and coal produce at less than 5 c/kWh and closing them down would eliminate competition for wind which produces at 9.5 c/kWh (ridgeline) and solar which produces at 13 c/kWh (field-mounted), 18 c/kWh (rooftop). This would not be a good outcome for the NE economy, which is handicapped by the highest energy costs in the US.

 

NOTE: Because 23 June had been such a disappointment regarding wind and solar production, I decided to monitor the ISO-NE website for the next five days. All but one of these days turned out to be a battery-discharge day! A very large capacity battery would be required to provide enough electricity to serve New England demand.

 

DAY 2

24 June 2018 also had cloudy weather and little wind. There was a shortfall of about 7682 MW (solar was zero) during the first hour of that day. The 500,000 - 62,610 = 437,390 MWh available from the batteries (after the first day) would be reduced by about 80,000 MWh to 357,390 MWh by 10 AM the next day (25 June) when solar would start to become significant. This was another battery-discharging day.

 

DAY 3

25 June 2018 had plenty of sunshine and wind, which means the increased wind and solar capacity likely produced enough electricity to serve most of the demand, plus partially recharge the batteries. Curtailment of wind and solar would be required, if batteries were full. This likely was a battery-charging day.

 

DAY 4

26 June 2018 started with little wind throughout the night, but had plenty of sunshine. At noontime, production, per ISO-NE = 1090 MW from NE hydro, wood, refuse, landfill methane + 272 x 15.7 MW, wind + (92 x 15.7, ATM + 1500/890 x 92 x 15.7, BTM) + 2324, imports = 11563 MW. Demand was about 13,500 MW, which means batteries would be discharging. This was another battery-discharging day.

ATM means after the meter, such as large, field-mounted solar (“seen” by ISO-NE)

BTM means before the meter, such as rooftop solar (not “seen” by ISO-NE)

 

DAY 5

27 June 2018 started with little wind throughout the night, but had partial sun and little wind in the morning, and clouded up later. In late afternoon rain showers began which lasted to about 10 AM the next day (June 28). This was another battery-discharging day.

 

DAY 6

28 June 2018 started with little wind and rain showers throughout the night, with overcast conditions and little wind during the rest of the day. This was another battery-discharging day.

 

Other Measures

 

It is clear increasing wind and solar by 15.7 times would not be adequate during summer.

 

- Increased generation, totaling about 6000 MW, of non-weather dependent electricity sources, such as hydro, refuse and landfill methane, plus increased imports would be needed to partially offset the 7098 MW gap.

 

- Demand management to shift demand from on-peak hours (late afternoon/early evening) to off-peak hours also would be required.

 

NOTE: Heat pumps and electric vehicles would significantly increase the need for electricity.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/replacing-gasoline-cons...

 

NOTE: Increased wood burning in power plants would not be a good idea, as it wastes a lot of energy. See next section.

 

Wood-Burning Power Plants

 

Vermont has the Ryegate wood burning plant, which gets about 50 percent of its trees from northern NH. Its efficiency is about 24%, but the efficiency from “forest to electric meter” is about 15.5 percent. That means the energy equivalent of about 5.5 out of 6.5 trees is wasted.

 

Ryegate burns about 250,000 ton of trees per year, which has about 250,000 ton of combustion CO2 emissions per year. In New England, it takes about 40 years for the CO2 to be reabsorbed by new tree growth; it is about 20 to 25 years in planted and fertilized forests in Georgia.

 

That means, if a wood burning plant operates for 40 years and is then shutdown, it would take another 40 years before all its combustion CO2 is absorbed.

 

There is an additional CO2 of about 15% to 20%, on a forest-to-electric meter basis, such as due to logging and power plant operations, disturbance of the forests, various losses, etc.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/is-burning-wood-co-2-ne...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wood-for-fuel-logging-i...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/a-comparison-of-wood-ch...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/dismal-economics-and-in...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/governor-sununu-vetoes-...

 

A much better approach would be to have high-efficiency wood burning heating plants. The efficiency from "forest to heating appliance" is about 62.5 percent. That means the energy equivalent of only about 0.6 out of 1.6 trees is wasted.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/more-realistic-energy-s...;

 

Wind and Solar Production Varies During a Day

 

Wind production varies due to variable winds throughout the day, especially when it is gusty.

Solar production varies due to variable cloudiness during daytime hours.

The batteries could not be fully discharged (say down to 10%), nor fully charged (say up to 90%), because they have to balance the wind and solar surging and ebbing on a real-time basis.

Thus only about 80% of the battery capacity is available for filling-in when solar and wind are insufficient, and for serving peak demands.

 

Increased Internal Resistance and Loss of Capacity with Age

- As the battery ages, its internal resistance, milli-ohm, increases. Any electricity passing through the batteries has a loss of at least 12.7% when new, at least 18.9% in year 10, and at least 21.2% in year 15, on an AC-to-AC basis.

- The EV electricity consumption would increase on the charge side (more kWh/mile for charging), and the energy delivery would decrease on the discharge side (less kWh/mile to wheels).

- Its capacity to store electricity, kWh, will decrease by about 10% in year 10, by about 13% in year 15, i.e., its capacity is greater in year 1 than in subsequent years. The materials in the battery age and cannot take as much charge as when new. That would reduce the range of EVs. See charge and discharge loss factors in table 1.

NOTE: The increase of internal resistance and decrease of capacity are greater in early years than in later years. See sciencedirect URL, table 2.

 

When new, "Excess to Batteries" = 0.873 x “excess over demand”, whether due to wind or solar, or both. See tables 1 and 2 and spreadsheet. 

 

Such decrease in performance adversely affects the battery system economics. See figure 7 in URL, which shows increased internal resistance and loss of capacity for only 40000 h, or 4.56 y

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626191731190X

 

Table 1/Age

New

10y

15y

Charge side loss

HV to LV, 1%

0.990

0.990

0.990

AC to DC, 2.2%

0.978

0.978

0.978

Charge loss factor, from graph

0.965

0.930

0.917

Charge side loss

0.934

0.900

0.888

%

6.6

10.0

11.2

Discharge side loss

Discharge loss factor, from graph

0.965

0.930

0.917

DC to AC

0.978

0.978

0.978

LV to HV

0.990

0.990

0.990

Discharge side loss

0.934

0.900

0.888

%

6.6

10.0

11.2

Round-trip, AC-to-AC

0.873

0.811

0.788

%

12.7

18.9

21.2

Conclusion

 

Summer: In case of multi-day cloudy weather and little wind, it is clear the active battery system capacity would need to be at least 500,000 MWh for filling-in and peaking, plus 20% for balancing, plus 13% for degradation by year 15. The wind and solar multipliers (15.7 times) may need to be increased to ensure electric service would be provided, 24/7/365, at a minimum reliability of 99.97%.

 

Winter: In case of multi-day cloudy weather and little wind, and the likelihood of snow and ice on most of the panels, the batteries would need to have much greater capacity to cover the longer multi-day wind and solar lulls in winter; there could be two such lulls only a few days apart. See URLs.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-example-of-elec...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-energy-l...

 

The Spreadsheets

 

- I had to split up the spreadsheet, because it would not fit on the width of a page. The bold values are mentioned in the text.

- The first table shows the shortfall after closing coal, oil, gas and nuclear plants and NOT increasing wind and solar.

- The second table shows the shortfall WITH increasing wind and solar by 15.7 times.

- Generation from about 890 MW of PV solar at end 2017, after the meter

- Generation from about 1500 MW of PV solar at end 2017, before the meter, such as residential rooftop solar

- Generation from about 1279 MW of wind turbines at end 2017. See Note.

- Other generation is NE hydro, wood, refuse, and landfill methane

- Monthly imports are reported by ISO-NE. I could not find hourly data.

- Shortfall = Demand - (Total generation + Imports)  

 

NOTE: Wind installed capacity was 1379 MW at end 2017, of which about 75 MW in Maine is connected to the Canadian grid, due to a lack of transmission to the NE grid.

https://www.awea.org/wind-energy-facts-at-a-glance

 

June 23, 2018: Cloudy day, rain showers, not much wind

Hour

Solar, ATM

Solar, BTM

Wind

Other

Imports

Total

Demand

Shortfall

MW

MW

MW

MW

MW

MW

MW

MW

1

0

0

451

1027

2324

3802

10900

7098

2

0

0

445

1010

2324

3779

10270

6491

3

0

0

465

1024

2324

3813

9890

6077

4

0

0

431

1021

2324

3776

9750

5974

5

0

0

408

1036

2324

3768

9730

5962

6

1

2

393

1021

2324

3741

9820

6079

7

3

5

325

1043

2324

3700

10210

6510

8

16

27

248

1062

2324

3677

10950

7273

9

17

29

210

1203

2324

3783

11790

8007

10

22

37

242

1331

2324

3956

12350

8394

11

32

54

269

1372

2324

4051

12680

8629

12

24

40

262

1115

2324

3765

12950

9185

13

25

42

387

1101

2324

3879

12970

9091

14

28

47

283

1087

2324

3769

13010

9241

15

18

30

300

1145

2324

3817

13010

9193

16

16

27

314

1142

2324

3823

13000

9177

17

10

17

252

1220

2324

3823

13120

9297

18

6

10

221

1232

2324

3793

13350

9557

19

2

3

193

1108

2324

3630

13310

9680

20

1

2

183

1440

2324

3950

13250

9300

21

0

0

174

1269

2324

3767

13160

9393

22

0

0

164

1043

2324

3531

12920

9389

23

0

0

165

1050

2324

3539

12130

8591

24

0

0

164

1050

2324

3538

11220

7682

 

Table 2 shows wind increased 15.7 times and solar 15.7 times, and the hour-to-hour storing of electricity into the batteries. “Existing Tot. Solar” = “Solar, ATM” + “Solar, BTM”.

 

The batteries are charging by excess wind until 6 AM. But the increasing solar is not sufficient to offset increasing demand and the decreasing wind. As a result, the charge decrease was 62610 MWh by midnight.

 

Table 2

Increased

Wind surplus (+)

Existing

Increased

Solar surplus (+)

Excess to

Accum'd

Wind times

Wind

Wind shortfall (-)

Tot Solar

Solar times

Tot. Solar

Solar shortfall (-)

Batteries

Into storage

MW

MW

MW

MW

MW

As AC

As AC

15.7

7098

0

0

15.7

0

0

15.7

7004

513

0

15.7

0

451

451

15.7

7318

1241

0

15.7

0

1092

1543

15.7

6783

809

0

15.7

0

712

2256

15.7

6421

459

0

15.7

0

404

2660

15.7

6185

106

3

15.7

42

130

2790

15.7

5115

-1395

8

15.7

126

-1268

-1040

1750

15.7

3903

-3370

43

15.7

675

-2695

-2210

-460

15.7

3305

-4702

46

15.7

717

-3986

-3268

-3729

15.7

3809

-4585

59

15.7

928

-3658

-2999

-6728

15.7

4234

-4395

86

15.7

1349

-3046

-2498

-9226

15.7

4123

-5061

64

15.7

1012

-4049

-3320

-12546

15.7

6091

-3000

67

15.7

1054

-1946

-1596

-14142

15.7

4454

-4787

75

15.7

1180

-3606

-2957

-17099

15.7

4722

-4471

48

15.7

759

-3712

-3044

-20143

15.7

4942

-4235

43

15.7

675

-3561

-2920

-23063

15.7

3966

-5331

27

15.7

422

-4909

-4026

-27089

15.7

3478

-6079

16

15.7

253

-5826

-4777

-31866

15.7

3038

-6642

5

15.7

84

-6558

-5377

-37243

15.7

2880

-6420

3

15.7

42

-6378

-5230

-42473

15.7

2738

-6655

0

15.7

0

-6655

-5457

-47930

15.7

2581

-6808

0

15.7

0

-6808

-5582

-53512

15.7

2597

-5994

0

15.7

0

-5994

-4915

-58428

15.7

2581

-5101

0

15.7

0

-5101

-4183

-62610

 

Installed Turnkey Capital Cost

An estimate of the capital cost is shown in table 3. The assumed $400/kWh is the price of the largest battery in the world, provided by Tesla, and located in Hornsdale, Australia.

 

NOTE: The actual turnkey cost was $US 66 million, which for 129 MWh of storage works out to $512/kWh.

- The 1.3 factor covers capacity loss due to battery aging by year 15

- The 1.2 factor covers real-time balancing of wind and solar.

- The 1.15 factor covers grid augmentation and extensions.

 

NOTE: The battery capacity shown in the table is the minimum needed. In the real world, a much larger battery capacity to store any surplus of wind and solar electricity would be required, because periods of cloudy weather, rain showers and little wind may last for more than a few days. 

 

Table 3

$billion

Service live

Batteries 

1.3 x 1.2 x 500000 x 1000 x 400

312

10 to 15 years

Wind addition

1279 x (15.7-1) x 1.15 x 2800000

54

20 to 25 years

Solar addition

(2390) x (15.7-1) x 1.15 x 3500000

141

25 to 30 years

Total

507

 

APPENDIX 1

Wind, Solar, Hydro, Bio and Waste

 

RE proponents claim wind and solar, and hydro + bio + waste, and energy storage, and demand management, and energy efficiency, and heat pumps and the batteries of electric vehicles will provide electricity, 24/7/365, at a minimum of 99.97% reliability, plus their envisioned system will be “distributed” everywhere, and it will have lower electricity costs per kWh, because “it does not use fuel”.

 

For many years, independent energy systems analysts have warned new Englanders higher electric rates would happen with increased build-outs of heavily-subsidized wind and solar, but legislators, etc., pooh-poohed them. Now, with utilities asking for 5%/y rate increases year after year, New Englanders are finallybeginning to learn that the RE siren song and dance is, in fact, a charade.

 

NOTE: If RE proponents were correct, why do countries in the EU, with highest levels of RE, such as Germany and Denmark also have highest household electric rates? The commercial/industrial rates are kept low and much less burdened with taxes, fees and surcharges, for competitive reasons. Why would that be different in New England? See euanmearns URL with a graph of household electric rates versus the sum of installed wind and solar in various EU countries.

 

http://euanmearns.com/an-update-on-the-energiewende/

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-hype-ver...

 

APPENDIX 2

New England Wholesale Prices: The annual average wholesale price has been about 5 c/kWh since 2009, due to low-cost nuclear, hydro and gas.

Average midday prices, when solar is most active, are about 6 c/kWh, due to low demand

Average late afternoon/early evening prices, when solar is minimal, are about 7 to 8 c/kWh, due to peak demand; prices may be up to 10 c/kWh on very rare occasions.

Average late evening/early morning prices are about 3 to 5 c/kWh
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/subsidized-solar-system...

APPENDIX 3

Wind and Solar Conditions in New England: New England has highly variable weather and low-medium quality wind and solar conditions. See NREL wind map and NREL solar map.

 

https://www.nrel.gov/gis/images/100m_wind/awstwspd100onoff3-1.jpg

https://www.nrel.gov/gis/images/solar/national_photovoltaic_2009-01...

 

Wind:

- Wind electricity is zero about 30% of the hours of the year (it takes a wind speed of about 7 mph to start the rotors)

- Wind is minimal most early mornings and most late afternoons/early evenings (peak demand hours), especially during summer

- Wind often is minimal 5 - 7 days in a row in summer and winter, as proven by ISO-NE real-time generation data.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/daily-shifting-of-wind-...

- About 60% is generated at night, when demand is much less than during the late afternoons/early evenings

- About 60% is generated in winter.

- During winter, the best wind month is up to 2.5 times the worst summer month

- New England has the lowest capacity factor (about 0.262) of any US region, except the US South. See URL.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=20112

 

Solar:

- Solar electricity is strictly a midday affair.

- It is zero about 65% of the hours of the year, mostly at night.

- It often is minimal 5 - 7 days in a row in summer and in winter, as proven by ISO-NE real-time generation data.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/daily-shifting-of-wind-...

- It is minimal early mornings and late afternoons/early evenings

- It is minimal much of the winter months

- It is minimal for several days with snow and ice on most of the panels.

- It varies with variable cloudiness, which would excessively disturb distribution grids with many solar systems, as happens in southern California and southern Germany on a daily basis. Utilities use batteries to stabilize their grids.

- During summer, the best solar month is up to 4 times the worst winter month; that ratio is 6 in Germany.

- New England has the lowest capacity factor (about 0.145, under ideal conditions) of any region in the US, except some parts of the US Northwest.

 

NOTE: Even if the NE grid had large capacity connections with Canada and New York, any major NE wind lull and any major NE snowfall likely would affect the entire US northeast, i.e., relying on neighboring grids to "help-out" likely would not be prudent strategy.

 

Wind Plus Solar:

ISO-NE publishes the minute-by-minute outputs off various energy sources contributing their electricity to the grid.

All one has to do is add the wind and solar and one comes rapidly to the conclusion both are minimal many hours of the year, at any time during the year.

 

Wind plus solar production could be minimal for 5 - 7 days in summer and in winter, especially with snow and ice on most of the panels, as frequently happens during December, January and February, as proven by ISO-NE real-time generation data.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/daily-shifting-of-wind-...

 

If we were to rely on wind and solar for most of our electricity, massive energy storage systems (a few hundred GWh-scale for Vermont, multiple TWh-scale for NE) would be required to cover multi-day wind lulls, multi-day overcast/snowy periods, and seasonal variations. See URLs.

 

Wind and solar cannot ever be expected to charge New England’s EVs, so people can get to work the next day, unless backed up by several TWh of storage, because wind/solar lulls can occur for 5 - 7 days in a row, in summer and in winter. BTW, the turnkey capital cost of one TWH of storage (delivered as AC to the grid) is about $400 billion.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-energy-l...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-example-of-elec...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/seasonal-pumped-hydro-s...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/electricity-storage-to-...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/pumped-storage-hydro-in...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-hype-ver...

 

APPENDIX 4

Wind and Solar Electricity is Minuscule After 20 years of Subsidies: Wind and solar (before and after the meter) were 2.7 and 1.97 percent of all electricity on the NE grid in 2017, per ISO-NE. Total RE electricity was 10.17 percent (including before and after the meter solar), after about 20 years of subsidies.

 

- Past RE development has been very slow even with subsidies.

- Federal investment tax credit subsidies for wind and solar are scheduled to decrease.

- NE will need traditional generators for decades.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/a-likely-scenario-durin...

 

NOTE: The realities of life are it took decades to increase:

- Natural gas from a few percent of the US electricity mix to over 30% in 2017

- Nuclear from zero percent of the US electricity mix to about 20% in 2017

- Wind and solar from near zero of the US electricity mix to 6.4% and 1.9%, respectively in 2017, and it would take decades more to have 30% to 40% of the US electricity mix from wind and solar, plus electricity generation uses only about 40% of all US primary energy. Converting that other 60% to renewables would be a Herculean task and very expensive, as shown in this article.

 

APPENDIX 5

New England Wholesale Electricity Prices: New England wholesale prices have averaged about 5 c/kWh for steady, 24/7/365 electricity since about 2008, primarily due to:

 

1) Natural gas electricity; 50% of NE generation; low-cost (5 c/kWh), low-CO2 emitting, no particulates, domestic fuel.

2) Nuclear electricity; 26% of NE generation; low-cost (5 c/kWh), minimal-CO2 emitting, no particulates, domestic fuel.

3) NE hydro electricity; 8.4% of generation, low-cost (5 c/kWh), minimal-CO2 emitting, no particulates, domestic.

4) Tie line electricity; 16.7% of NE grid load; low-cost (5.7 c/kWh), minimal-CO2 emitting, no particulates, imported.

 

APPENDIX 6

High Electricity Prices for RE in New England: The highly subsidized wholesale prices of wind and solar paid by utilities to producers are much higher than in the rest of the US, because of New England’s mediocre wind and solar conditions.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/subsidized-solar-system...

 

Wind and Solar Far From Competitive with Fossil in New England: The Conservation Law Foundation claims renewables are competitive with fossil. Nothing could be further from the truth. Here is a list of NE wholesale prices and Power Purchase Agreement, PPA, prices.

 

NE field-mounted solar is 12 c/kWh; competitively bid

NE rooftop solar is 18 c/kWh, net-metered; GMP adds costs of 3.813 c/kWh, for a total of 21.813 c/kWh

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/green-mountain-power-co...

NE wind offshore until recently about 18 c/kWh

NE wind ridgeline is at least 9 c/kWh

DOMESTIC pipeline gas is 5 c/kWh

Russian and Middle East imported LNG is at least 9 c/kWh

NE nuclear is 4.5 c/kWh

NE hydro is 4 c/kWh; about 10 c/kWh, if Standard Offer in Vermont.

Hydro-Quebec imported hydro is 6 - 7 c/kWh; GMP paid 5.549 c/kWh in 2016, under a recent 20-y contract.

NE annual average wholesale price about 5 c/kWh, unchanged since 2009, courtesy of low-cost gas and nuclear.

 

NOTE: Vineyard Wind, 800 MW, fifteen miles south of Martha’s Vineyard, using 8 or 10 MW turbines, 750 ft tall.

Phase 1 on line in 2021, electricity offered at an average of 8.9 c/kWh over 20 years

Phase 2 offered at an average of 7.9 c/kWh over 20 years

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2018/08/13/vineyard-wind-offer...

https://www.boem.gov/What-Does-an-Offshore-Wind-Energy-Facility-Loo...

 

NOTE: The NE grid is divided in regions, each with Local Market Prices, LMPs, which vary from 2.5 - 3.5 c/kWh from 10 pm to about 6 pm; slowly increase to about 6 - 7 c/kWh around noon time, when solar is maximal; are about 7 - 8 c/kWh in late afternoon/early evening (peak demand hours), when solar is minimal. Unusual circumstances, such as power plant or transmission line outages, can cause LMPs to increase to 20 - 40 c/kWh, and even higher when such events occur during peak demand hours.

 

NOTE: The above prices would be about 50% higher without the subsidies and even higher without cost shifting. See Appendix.

 

NOTE: Here is an ISO-NE graph, which shows for very few hours during a 13-y period were wholesale prices higher than 6 c/kWh. Those prices are low because of low-cost gas, low-cost nuclear and low-cost hydro. The last four peaks were due to:

 

- Pipeline constraints, aggravated by the misguided recalcitrance of pro-RE Governors of NY and MA

- Pre-mature closings of coal and nuclear plants

- Lack of more robust connections to nearby grids, such as New York and Canada. See URLs.


https://www.iso-ne.com/about/key-stats/markets/

http://truenorthreports.com/rolling-blackouts-are-probably-coming-t...

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Comment by Willem Post on June 25, 2018 at 4:48pm

Thinklike,

I agree.

The lifetime CO2 = The embedded CO2 of the battery supply, from mine to finished battery pack; plus embedded CO2 of other supply; plus assembly and shipping of the vehicle to the dealer; plus operating and maintenance of the vehicle over a 10-year period is much greater for a Tesla Model S than for a Toyota Prius Plug-in

About 2-y ago I wrote an article on the subject.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/comparison-of-energy-ef...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/evs-and-plug-in-hybrids...

Comment by Thinklike A. Mountain on June 25, 2018 at 11:51am

A study has found electric vehicles manufactured by Tesla are no better for the environment than diesel or petrol-fueled cars.

Despite being recognized as among the most environmentally friendly on the market, Tesla vehicles harm the planet just about as much as their diesel and petrol equivalents, according to a recent analysis by Engaged Tracking, a London-based research firm. Engaged Tracking determined that the production of Tesla vehicles — and generating the electricity to keep them running — contributes to greenhouse gas emissions just as much as traditional vehicles in the United Kingdom. This is because more CO2 is emitted during the manufacturing of electric vehicles, and the electricity Tesla vehicles in the U.K. require are generated mostly by coal and gas.

http://dailycaller.com/2018/06/25/research-firm-tesla-cars-dirty-di...

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Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT (excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010  http://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?"  http://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” http://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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