What does the new National Energy Dominance Council mean for Maine wind projects?

Comment

Comment by Willem Post on February 17, 2025 at 7:38am

The way Damnocrats fraudulently played hide and seek with $trillions of federal funds, OUR MONEY, over the years, in the same way they “win” elections.

How could the two not be related?

They need to control the federal bureaucrat government and Courts for lawfare, and for having $money to play hide and seek, and buy/pay off the corrupt Corporate Media, and subvert “study”-academia, and buy/pay off Damnocrat-infested  NPR and PBS, to win elections

Lots of smug laughing/grinning has become desperate whining, after Trump won, and had Musk do some “vestigating”

I bet the Republicans, Trump, Musk, etc, had no idea the extent and duration of the gross malfeasance for at least 5 decades

Comment by Dan McKay on February 16, 2025 at 1:20pm

Willem,

The IRS just completed the rules concerning the 2022 IRA ITC/PTC funds, January 17,2025. It is hard to say what has been committed so far. Maybe Elon can find out.

Comment by Willem Post on February 16, 2025 at 12:50pm

Dan,

Where are any unobligated funds parked/hidden?

Who controls the outlays

Comment by Willem Post on February 16, 2025 at 12:33pm

THE DYSFUNCTIONAL STATE OF MAINE?
The over-taxed, over-regulated, already-impoverished Maine people are super-screwed, trying to make ends meet in a near-zero, real growth Maine economy
The Maine economy has lots of low-tech/low-pay/low-benefit, bs jobs
The Maine economy has lots of woke, leftist bureaucrats
Screwed-over Mainers also have to pay for poverty-stricken, aliens of different cultures from all over, who illegally enter the US, a federal felony
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Those illegal aliens:
– are the dregs of Third World countries, sent to Maine by their US-hating, leftist, woke governments, in cahoots with Soros/Biden-financed NGOs
– are getting free housing, free food, a never-empty credit card, free healthcare, free education and whatever other goodies they want. They mainly suck from the government tit
– have no skills, no training, no education, no modern industrial experience.
– will take low-tech/low-pay/low-benefit jobs away from screwed-over Mainers.
– are often good at crime, murder, rape, drug and human trafficking, and driving vehicles into merrymakers.
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Many millions of illegal aliens have to be shipped back where they came from, before they forever ruin the US.
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Down-trodden Mainers often have to put up with the visual ugliness and noise of hundreds of windmills, that are often idle, because of too little wind year-round, and many thousands of acres of solar panels, that are often covered with snow and ice in winter; there is no solar at night.
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MAGA may lead to higher CO2 ppm to 1) increase growth of flora and fauna all over the world, and 2) increase crop yields to feed hungry people. What is not to like?

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THE DYSFUNCTIONAL STATE OF MASSACHUSETTS WITH GIANT BATTERIES

A recent announcement is to install a statewide, 4-h battery system, installed capacity 5000 MW/20,000 MWh.

Tesla recommends not charging to more than 80% full and not discharging to less than 20% full, to achieve normal life of 15 years and normal aging at 1.5%/y.
The delivered capacity would be 20,000 MWh x 0.6, Tesla factor x aging factor x 0.9, outage factor = 10,800 MWh

The batteries would 1) absorb midday solar peaks and deliver the electricity during peak hours of late afternoon/early evening, and 2) stabilize the grid, due to varying W/S output, 24/7/365

The turnkey cost would be about $600/installed kWh, delivered as AC at battery outlet, 2024 pricing, or $600/kWh x 20 million kWh = $12.0 billion, about every 15 years.

I did not mention annually increasing insurance costs of risky W/S projects.

If 50% were borrowed from banks, the cost of amortizing $6 billion at 6% over 15 years = $608 million/y

If 50% were from Owners, the cost of amortizing $6 billion at 10% over 15 years = $774 million/y

The two items total $1,382 million/y; another hell-of-a-big subsidy to W/S

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

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No banks will finance W/S projects at acceptable interest rates and no insurance companies will insure them at acceptable premiums, no matter what the woke bureaucrats are announcing.
The sooner the U-turn, the better for the New England, US and Europe

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NEW ENGLAND ELECTRICITY 100% FROM WIND AND SOLAR by 2050?
In New England, we have Net Zero nut cases. They know nothing about energy systems, but spout lots of nonsense.

“Keep it in the ground”, they say. “All electricity from wind and solar”, they say.
When presented with numbers and facts their eyes glaze over

Here is a simple analysis, if no fossil fuels, no nuclear, and minimal other sources of electricity

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-example-of-ele...

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It is assumed, 1) all W/S output, based on historic weather data, is loaded into batteries, 2) all demand is drawn from batteries, based on historic load on the grid, as published by ISO-NE.

An annual storage balance was created, which needed to stay well above zero; the batteries are not allowed to "run dry" in bad W/S years. The balance was used to determine the wind and solar capacities needed to achieve it.

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New England would need a battery system with a capacity of about 10 TWh of DELIVERABLE electricity from batteries to HV grid.

Daily W/S output would be fed to the batteries, 140 TWh/y

Daily demand would be drawn from the batteries, 115 TWh/y in 2024

Battery system roundtrip loss, HV to HV, would be 25 TWh/y, more with aging

Transmission and Distribution to users incur additional losses of about 8%, or 0.08 x 115 = 9.2 TWh 

The battery system would cover any multi-day W/S lulls throughout the year
Batteries would supplement W/S output, as needed, 24/7/365
W/S would charge excess output into the batteries, 24/7/365 
Tesla recommends not charging to more than 80% full and not discharging to less than 20% full, to achieve normal life of 15 years and normal aging at 1.5%/y.
The INSTALLED battery capacity would need to be about 10 TWh / (0.6, Tesla factor x aging factor x 0.9, outage factor) = 18.5 TWh, delivered as AC at battery outlet.
The turnkey cost would be about $600/installed kWh, delivered as AC at battery outlet, 2024 pricing, or $600/kWh x 18.5 billion kWh = $11.1 trillion, about every 15 years.

I did not mention annually increasing insurance costs of risky W/S projects.

If 50% were borrowed from banks, the cost of amortizing $5.5 trillion at 6% over 15 years = $557 billion/y

If 50% were from Owners, the cost of amortizing $5.5 trillion at 10% over 15 years = $708 billion/y

The two items total $1265 billion/y, about the same as the New England GDP.

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

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No banks will finance W/S projects at acceptable interest rates and no insurance companies will insure them at acceptable premiums, no matter what the woke bureaucrats are pronouncing.
The sooner the U-turn, the better for New England, US and Europe

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Excerpt from:

BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

by Willem Post

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Utility-scale, battery system pricing usually is not made public, but for this system it was.

Neoen, in western Australia, has just turned on its 219 MW/ 877 MWh Tesla Megapack battery, the largest in western Australia.

Ultimately, it will be a 560 MW/2,240 MWh battery system, $1,100,000,000/2,240,000 kWh = $491/kWh, delivered as AC, late 2024 pricing. Smaller capacity systems will cost much more than $500/kWh

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Annual Cost of Megapack Battery Systems; 2023 pricing
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Assume a system rated 45.3 MW/181.9 MWh, and an all-in turnkey cost of $104.5 million, per Example 2
Amortize bank loan for 50% of $104.5 million at 6.5%/y for 15 years, $5.484 million/y
Pay Owner return of 50% of $104.5 million at 10%/y for 15 years, $6.765 million/y (10% due to high inflation)
Lifetime (Bank + Owner) payments 15 x (5.484 + 6.765) = $183.7 million
Assume battery daily usage for 15 years at 10%, and loss factor = 1/(0.9 *0.9)
Battery lifetime output = 15 y x 365 d/y x 181.9 MWh x 0.1, usage x 1000 kWh/MWh = 99,590,250 kWh to HV grid; 122,950,926 kWh from HV grid; 233,606,676 kWh loss
(Bank + Owner) payments, $183.7 million / 99,590,250 kWh = 184.5 c/kWh
Less 50% subsidies (ITC, depreciation in 5 years, deduction of interest on borrowed funds) is 92.3c/kWh
At 10% throughput, (Bank + Owner) cost, 92.3 c/kWh
At 40% throughput, (Bank + Owner) cost, 23.1 c/kWh
 
Excluded costs/kWh: 1) O&M; 2) system aging, 1.5%/y, 3) 20% HV grid-to-HV grid loss, 4) grid extension/reinforcement to connect battery systems, 5) downtime of parts of the system, 6) decommissioning in year 15, i.e., disassembly, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites. Excluded costs would add at least 15 c/kWh
 

COMMENTS ON CALCULATION

Almost all existing battery systems operate at less than 10%, per EIA annual reports i.e., new systems would operate at about 92.4 + 15 = 107.4 c/kWh. They are used to stabilize the grid, i.e., frequency control and counteracting up/down W/S outputs. If 40% throughput, 23.1 + 15 = 38.1 c/kWh. 

A 4-h battery system costs 38.1 c/kWh of throughput, if operated at a duty factor of 40%.

That is on top of the cost/kWh of the electricity taken from the HV grid to feed the batteries

Up to 40% could occur by absorbing midday solar peaks and discharging during late-afternoon/early-evening, which occur every day in California and other sunny states. The more solar systems, the greater the peaks.

See URL for Megapacks required for a one-day wind lull in New England

40% throughput is close to Tesla’s recommendation of 60% maximum throughput, i.e., not charging above 80% full and not discharging below 20% full, to achieve a 15-y life, with normal aging.

Tesla’s recommendation was not heeded by the Owners of the Hornsdale Power Reserve in Australia. They excessively charged/discharged the system. After a few years, they added Megapacks to offset rapid aging of the original system, and added more Megapacks to increase the rating of the expanded system.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-hornsdale-power-res...

Regarding any project, the bank and Owner have to be paid, no matter what. I amortized the bank loan and Owner’s investment

Divide total payments over 15 years by the throughput during 15 years, you get c/kWh, as shown.

There is about a 20% round-trip loss, from HV grid to 1) step-down transformer, 2) front-end power electronics, 3) into battery, 4) out of battery, 5) back-end power electronics, 6) step-up transformer, to HV grid, i.e., you draw about 50 units from the HV grid to deliver about 40 units to the HV grid, because of A-to-Z system losses. That gets worse with aging.

A lot of people do not like these c/kWh numbers, because they have been repeatedly told by self-serving folks, battery Nirvana is just around the corner.

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NOTE: Aerial photos of large-scale battery systems with many Megapacks, show many items of equipment, other than the Tesla supply, such as step-down/step-up transformers, switchgear, connections to the grid, land, access roads, fencing, security, site lighting, i.e., the cost of the Tesla supply is only one part of the battery system cost at a site.

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NOTE: Battery system turnkey capital costs and electricity storage costs likely will be much higher in 2023 and future years, than in 2021 and earlier years, due to: 1) increased inflation rates, 2) increased interest rates, 3) supply chain disruptions, which delay projects and increase costs, 4) increased energy prices, such as of oil, gas, coal, electricity, etc., 5) increased materials prices, such as of tungsten, cobalt, lithium, copper, manganese, etc., 6) increased labor rates.

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HIGH COST/kWh OF WIND AND SOLAR FOISTED ONTO A BRAINWASHED PUBLIC 

What is generally not known, the more weather-dependent W/S sources, the less efficient the other, traditional generators They have a hell-of-a-time to counteract the ups and downs of W/S output.

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fuel-and-co2-reduction...

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At about 30% W/S, the entire system hits an increasingly thicker concrete wall, operationally and cost wise.

Germany and the UK are hitting that wall more and more hours each day

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Base-load nuclear, gas and coal plants are the only rational way forward, plus the additional CO2 is very beneficial for additional flora and fauna growth

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/we-are-in-a-co2-famine

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US gravy-train subsidies are:

 

1) Federal and state tax credits, up to 50%
- Community tax credit of 10 percent

- Base tax credit of 30 percent

- State tax credit and other incentives of up to 10%

2) 5-y Accelerated Depreciation write off of the entire project
3) Deduction of interest of borrowed money

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The subsidies reduce the owning and operating cost of a project by 50%, which means electricity can be sold at 50% less than it costs to produce.

Utilities pay 15 c/kWh, wholesale, after 50% subsidies, for electricity from fixedoffshore wind systems

Utilities pay 18 c/kWh, wholesale, after 50% subsidies, for electricity from floating offshore wind

Utilities pay 12 c/kWh, wholesale, after 50% subsidies, for electricity from larger solar systems

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Excluded costs, at a future 30% W/S annual penetration on the grid, based on UK and German experience: 

- Onshore grid expansion/reinforcement to connect distributed W/S systems, about 2 c/kWh

- A fleet of traditional power plants to quickly counteract W/S variable output, on a less than minute-by-minute basis, 24/7/365, which leads to more Btu/kWh, more CO2/kWh, more cost of about 2 c/kWh

- A fleet of traditional power plants to provide electricity during 1) low-wind periods, 2) high-wind periods, when rotors are locked in place, and 3) low solar periods during mornings, evenings, at night, snow/ice on panels, which leads to more Btu/kWh, more CO2/kWh, more cost of about 2 c/kWh

- Pay W/S system Owners for electricity they could have produced, if not curtailed, about 1 c/kWh

- Importing electricity at high prices, when W/S output is low, 1 c/kWh

- Exporting electricity at low prices, when W/S output is high, 1 c/kWh

- Disassembly on land and at sea, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites, about 2 c/kWh

Some of these values exponentially increase as more W/S systems are added to the grid
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The economic/financial insanity and environmental damage of it all is off the charts.
No wonder Europe’s near-zero, real-growth economy is in such big do-do

That economy has been tied into knots by inane people.

YOUR tax dollars are building these projects so YOU will have much higher electric bills.

Remove YOUR tax dollars using your vote, and none of these projects would be built, and YOUR electric bills would be lower

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UK, GERMANY AND NORWAY  

Norway gets 90% from hydro reservoir plants and 10% from west coast windmills.
Because of long distances, there is little connection between the north and south grid.
Any draw by the UK during W/S underproduction affects the south grid.
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The grid is pumped by generators to a voltage with 50-cycle electromagnetic waves which travel at near the speed of light. Electrons do not travel. They just vibrate at 50 Hz
Any UK underproduction, resulting in voltage drops, is immediately sensed about 800 miles away, and compensated for, by automatically opening the water valves to hydro turbines in Norway.
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A few years ago, during a W/S lull, Norway oversupplied Germany and the UK, which resulted in much higher wholesale prices in the south grid, too low water levels in reservoirs, rationing, aka blackouts/brownouts, and lots of Norwegians with mandated EVs and heat pumps being peed off.
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This time the W/S lull happened again, and, just like that, the ruling-party government fell. A new ruling-party government was installed, which may, or may not, remedy the situation. INSTANT DEMOCRACY.

We should have it in the US, instead of endless lying, obfuscation, grandstanding, obstruction, etc., for up to 4 years, or, God forbid, 8 years

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NOTE: I lived in Norway for 3 years. My brother-in-law, a managing director, worked at Norsk Hydro, which provides almost all hydro power in Norway. We talk shop. He thinks the nutcases in Oslo should be exiled to Nova Zembla.

Comment by Dan McKay on February 16, 2025 at 11:59am

Summary: H.R.191 — 119th Congress (2025-2026)

Sponsor:	Rep. Ogles, Andrew [R-TN-5] (Introduced 01/03/2025)
Committees:	House - Ways and Means; Energy and Commerce; Agriculture; Natural Resources; Financial Services; Science, Space, and Technology; Transportation and Infrastructure; Oversight and Government Reform This bill repeals the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and rescinds any unobligated funds made available by the act.

Comment by Dan McKay on February 16, 2025 at 11:55am

The Inflation Reduction Act prolongs the ITC/PTC credit until 2032. Congress needs to look at this while working out taxation legislation in the Reconciliation Budget. These tax credits will add considerable costs to the debt and promote unreliable energy sources. The President's Energy Dominant Council is hopefully all over this fraud, but pushing Rinos like Collins to remove these subsidies isn't going to be easy. 

Comment by Penny Gray on February 16, 2025 at 9:51am

Since wind and solar are neither reliable nor affordable, it would seem they've been effectively eliminated from President Trump's "all forms of energy" list.  Let the screaming begin.

Comment by Willem Post on February 16, 2025 at 9:50am

W/S systems are unreliable, weather-dependent, extremely expensive ways of generating electricity, that require subsidies of about 50% of the owning and operating cost to get built.

at a future 30% W/S annual penetration on the grid, based on UK and German experience: 

- Onshore grid expansion/reinforcement to connect distributed W/S systems, about 2 c/kWh

- A fleet of traditional power plants to quickly counteract W/S variable output, on a less than minute-by-minute basis, 24/7/365, which leads to more Btu/kWh, more CO2/kWh, more cost of about 2 c/kWh

- A fleet of traditional power plants to provide electricity during 1) low-wind periods, 2) high-wind periods, when rotors are locked in place, and 3) low solar periods during mornings, evenings, at night, snow/ice on panels, which leads to more Btu/kWh, more CO2/kWh, more cost of about 2 c/kWh

- Pay W/S system Owners for electricity they could have produced, if not curtailed, about 1 c/kWh

- Importing electricity at high prices, when W/S output is low, 1 c/kWh

- Exporting electricity at low prices, when W/S output is high, 1 c/kWh

- Disassembly on land and at sea, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites, about 2 c/kWh

Some of these values exponentially increase as more W/S systems are added to the grid
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The economic/financial insanity and environmental damage of it all is off the charts.
No wonder Europe’s near-zero, real-growth economy is in such big do-do

That economy has been tied into knots by inane people.

YOUR tax dollars are building these projects so YOU will have much higher electric bills.

Remove YOUR tax dollars using your vote, and none of these projects would be built, and YOUR electric bills would be lower

Both, the UK and Germany are economic basket cases, because of insanely expensive energy policies.

The elected folks in Maine should not act like zombies, beating the bushes for US subsidies for wind and solar that are disappearing.

The elected folks should get back to basics, such as reducing the bloated Maine government, so Mainers can breathe again.

Comment by Dan McKay on February 16, 2025 at 5:45am

Will Augusta Legislators pay attention to the elephant in the room ?