More Bits and pieces from the Maine PUC ORDER APPROVING TERM SHEETS for "The Northern Maine Renewable Energy Development"

Comment

Comment by Willem Post on November 5, 2022 at 6:10pm

It is absolutely necessary to have a highly reliable electricity service, if we are forced by the government to "ELECTRIFY", i.e., have heat pumps, and electric vehicles, and electric ovens.

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...

 

In Europe, in 2022, there was hot weather and plenty of sunshine, but little wind and little rain, i.e., a drought.

 

As a result, there was plenty of solar electricity, but little wind electricity and less hydro electricity 

Also, French nuclear plant output had to be curtailed, due to delayed maintenance, strikes for higher wages, and insufficient cooling water.

 

Thus, Europe, in addition to the scrounging around to replace Russian gas, also had to fire up all of its gas plants, and start up some retired coal plants, and in Germany keep some nuclear plants running, to offset the unreliability of weather-dependent electricity, such as wind, solar, hydro, and even nuclear.

 

Wind and solar could not be fed to the NE grid, unless the traditional sources were present to counteract their output variations, 24/7/365. That means almost none of the traditional sources, and their fuel supplies, can be shutdown, if wind and solar become high percentages of the annual load onto the NE grid.

 

It would be very prudent, to have a large capacity, MW, of coal, oil, and gas plants, that are staffed, with adequate fuel supplies and fuel in storage capacity, kept in good working order, to be ready to operate, when needed, especially during:

 

1) The peak demand hours of late-afternoon/early-evening

2) Wind/solar lulls that could last 5 to 7 days, and could be followed by another multi-day wind/solar lull a few days later, before any battery systems could have been recharged!!

 

Wind systems generate power when the wind is blowing, but zero power when the air is still

Solar systems generate power when the sun is shining, especially around noontime, but generate less power when the sky is cloudy, and zero power when the sky is dark, or when panels are covered with snow.

 

As a result, wind and solar cannot function as dispatchable resources - meaning, they cannot be quickly deployed when needed, such as during the peak-demand periods of late-afternoon/early-evening.

 

This article shows the wind/solar generation shortfall, and turnkey capital cost, due to a one-day wind/solar lull

It also shows the electricity drawn from the high-voltage grid to enable grid-scale battery systems to counteract the one-day shortfall

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-sys...

 

All-in Turnkey Capital Costs of Grid-Scale Battery Systems; 2020 pricing

 

The battery system would need to provide a certain level of power, MW, and energy, MWh, during a one-day wind/solar lull.

 

At present, the existing power plants, connected to the NE high-voltage grid, augmented with imports, supply the required MW and MWh, during the peak hours of late-afternoon/early-evening

 

During a wind/solar lull, and a required peak load of 27,500 MW:

 

- Almost all solar would be near zero during late-afternoon/early-evening

- Wind likely would be 15% of annual average, or less, during late-afternoon/early-evening.

 

The US all-in turnkey capital costs of complete battery systems (various technologies) in 2020, including land, foundations, fencing, lighting, step-up and step-down transformers was about $550/kWh, delivered as AC at battery voltage, per EIA annual survey reports. 

See URL

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

 

The US average price/kWh has decreased, because li-ion systems are less expensive and have become a greater part of the storage system mix.

 

We assume the all-in turnkey cost for li-ion systems at $400/kWh, delivered as AC; 2020 price. See Future Grid-Scale Battery System Turnkey Costs

- Battery systems age at about 1.5%/y; the capacity loss would be about 25% in year 15

- Tesla recommends operating battery systems from 20% full to 80% full (i.e., a 0.6 availability factor), for maximum useful service life, about 15 years.

- The battery systems almost always operate well within that range, except duringinfrequentcircumstances, such as randomly occurring wind/solar lulls, in which case, operation can be from 10% full to 90% full, if needed.

- The battery systems likely would not be 80% full at the start of a wind/solar lull

 

For our analysis, we assume, the batteries are 70% full, at the start of a wind/solar lull, and an infrequentdischarge to 10%, which yields a 0.6 availability factor.

 

NOTE: After looking at several aerial photos of large-scale battery systems with many Tesla Megapacks, it is clear many other items of equipment are shown, other than the Tesla supply, such as step-down/step-up transformers, connections to the grid, land, foundations, access roads, fencing, security, site lighting, i.e., the cost of the Tesla supply is only one part of the total battery system cost on a site.

 

NOTE: Proponents of grid-scale battery systems, such as financial advisors Bloomberg, Lazard, etc., have been claiming the cost of grid-scale battery systems would be decreasing to $300/kWh, delivered as AC, at battery voltage, in the near future.

 

Such claims are similar to the mantra "Nuclear power will be too cheap to meter".

Such claims have been, and will be, off-the-charts ridiculous for at least the next 10 years.

 

Future Grid-Scale Battery System Turnkey Costs

 

Recently, Tesla, one of the largest suppliers of grid-scale battery systems in the world, increased its 2021 pricing for a standard module Megapack by 24.5% for 2022. See URL

 

The Megapack pricing, and the pricing for complete grid-scale battery systems, for 2025, likely will be much higher, due to:

 

1) Increased inflation rates,

2) Increased interest rates,

3) Costly, project-delaying, supply chain disruptions,

4) Increased energy prices, such as of oil, gas, coal, etc.,

5) Increased materials prices, such as of Tungsten, Cobalt, Lithium, Copper, Manganese, etc. See URLs

6) Increased labor rates 

 

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-03-21_15-28-4...

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/tesla-hikes-megapack-prices-c...

 

Wind: Bigger offshore wind turbines requiring specialized onshore assembly facilities and specialized ships, which are owned mostly by Europe; the wind/solar/battery-20-year spreadsheets, of a few years ago, do no longer make sense.

 

1) Much greater subsidies per kWh to developers would be required, plus expensive grid expansion and augmentation, plus expensive counteracting by the other generators, of the up/down variations and intermittencies of increased wind and solar

 

2) Much higher charges to ratepayers and taxpayers, c/kWh, would be required 

All that would make the US even less competitive in world markets, and more vulnerable to increased imports and foreign economic control

Comment by Willem Post on November 5, 2022 at 5:08pm

Le Page will put an end to this expensive, heavily subsidized wind, solar and battery nonsense, right after he is elected, for sure!!

All it will do is increase even more the energy cost of Mainers