COMPARISON OF TESLA MODEL S AND MODEL 3, BASED ON REAL-WORLD DRIVING CONDITIONS

Vermont has a Comprehensive Energy Plan, CEP. The capital cost for implementing the CEP would be in excess of $1.0 BILLION PER YEAR FOR AT LEAST 33 YEARS, according to the Energy Action Network annual report.

https://outside.vermont.gov/sov/webservices/Shared%20Documents/2016...

 

The CEP projects plug-ins and EVs as shown in table 1.

The CEP-projected sales rate is 2,500 vehicles for 2020.

The actual sales rate appears to be about 600 - 700 per year during the 2017 - 2019 period.

 

Table 1/Electric Vehicles in Vermont

Plug-in hybrids

 EVs

Total

CEP projected annual sales for 2020

 1,750

750

2,500

Registered

 

 

 

As of Oct, 2017

 

 

2,100

As of Oct, 2018

 

 

2,800

As of Jul, 2019

 2032

1,256

3,288

As of Oct, 2019; estimate

 

 

3,450

 

See CEP, exhibit 8-15.

See URL

https://www.driveelectricvt.com/Media/Default/docs/maps/vt_ev_regis...

Here is a list of URLs of articles relating to electric vehicles.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/comparison-of-tesla-mod...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/electric-cars-lose-rang...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/electric-vehicles-and-m...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/tesla-model-3-long-term...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/replacing-gasoline-cons...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/flawed-epa-method-of-ca...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/replacing-gasoline-cons...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/lifecycle-co2eq-of-inte...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/evs-and-plug-in-hybrids...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/comparison-of-energy-ef...

EPA TESTING AND THE REAL WORLD

EPA testing of EVs is performed by experts, under standard laboratory conditions. The adverse effects on kWh/mile regarding cold weather, road conditions, snow, hills, dirt roads with potholes, etc., are ignored, which can increase kWh/mile and reduce range, by up to 40% during NE winters.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/electric-cars-lose-rang...

EPA testing excludes the battery charge loss during non-driving times, which for most people is at least 20 hours per day.

 

EPA testing does not cover real-world situations, such as, parking an EV at the airport during a two-week trip, which likely leads to significant loss of battery charge.

As a result, the total electricity, kWh/mile, drawn via a dedicated wall meter over an extended period of time becomes significantly greater than the total change of battery charge, kWh/mile, used for traveling from A to B, as measured by the vehicle meter. For example, long-term testing shows:

The ratio of the Tesla Model 3 is about 1.2576 in California (good conditions for EVs)

The ratio of the Tesla Model S is about 1.3035 in upstate New York (more challenging conditions for EVs, especially in winter).

Both are based on about one year of real-world driving conditions. See URLs


http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/comparison-of-tesla-mod...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/tesla-model-3-long-term...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/comparison-of-tesla-mod...

SOURCE ENERGY = UPSTREAM ENERGY + PRIMARY ENERGY

The source energy of fuels for power plants is from oil and gas wells, and coal mines, etc.

The upstream energy is for extraction, processing, transport, etc., of the fuel to power plants; about 17% of primary energy for NG, about 8% for nuclear, about 2% for hydro, and about 5% for wood chip electricity. The weighted average for the NE grid is about 10.2%

The primary energy is the energy input to power plants

 

COMPARISON OF TESLA MODEL S AND MODEL 3

A Tesla Model S was driven upstate NY, which has weather and road conditions similar to Vermont. Winter performance required significant greater kWh/mile than summer performance, largely due to:

 

- Worse road conditions,

- Heating seats, cabin, and battery, and

- Defrosting glass, wipers and mirrors, and

- The battery having more internal resistance during cold weather.

 

The owner kept data logs of relevant operating parameters for a year. See URL.

 

The log of the odometer showed 15,243 miles.

The log of the vehicle meter showed 5,074 kWh, or 0.3329 kWh/mile.

The log of the wall meter showed 6,614 kWh, or 0.4339 kWh/mile.

The charging + self-use loss is 6614 – 5074 = 1,540 kWh, or 0.1010 kWh/mile.

Charging loss is about 15% of 0.4339 = 0.0651 kWh/mile.

Self-use loss is about 0.1010 – 0.0651 = 0.0359 kWh/mile. See URL table 4, and see below table 2

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/comparison-of-tesla-mod...

 

Comments on table 2:

The table shows the source energy required, to achieve 0.3500 kWh DC in the battery for A to B travel, after all losses.

It was assumed an NE mix of light duty vehicles, LDVs, including cars, SUVs, crossovers, minivans and ¼-ton pick-ups, would require about 0.3500 kWh from the battery to travel one mile.

The current NE mix of LDVs is about 50% SUVs and ¼-ton pick-ups, most of which have all-wheel-drive.

If charging and self-use losses were added, about 0.4563 kWh/mile would be drawn via the wall meter.

Electricity consumption for a NE mix of LDVs would be 12,000 mile/y x 0.4563kWh/mile, wall meter = 5,475 kWh/y

The charging loss occurs during charging the batteries, about 15% for a Tesla Model S, or 0.15 x 0.4563= 0.0684 kWh/mile.

The self-use loss takes place while the EV is parked or driven, about 0.1062 - 0.0684 = 0.0378 kWh/mile.

 

A Tesla Model 3 was used by Edmunds, one of the largest car dealers in California, to perform a long-term road test. Edmunds kept similar data logs as for the Model S in New York State.

 

Table 5A shows the data for the Model S and Model 3.

The Model S is a fuel-size, AWD sedan, the model 3 is a compact, AWD sedan.

The Model 3 is more efficient, because of later technology.

 

Driving, road and climate conditions in southern California are much better for EVs than in upstate New York.

Almost 50% of all EVs on US roads are in California. They likely have less kWh/mile than elsewhere!! See URL

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/comparison-of-tesla-mod...

 

NOTE:

Most non-engineer analysts use EPA values, or manufacturer values for kWh/mile.

That is a gross mistake.

It is necessary to log the kWh drawn via a dedicated wall meter, WM, and log the increase in charge, kWh, in the battery, as shown by the vehicle meter, VM.

That should be done for at least several months or a year.

The WM - VM difference is due to charging losses, self-use losses, and real-world road/climate conditions   

The ratio of the Tesla Model 3 is about 1.2576 in California (good conditions for EVs)

The ratio of the Tesla Model S is about 1.3035 in upstate New York (more challenging conditions for EVs, especially in winter).

Both are based on about one year of real-world driving conditions. See URLs

 

Table 2/Model S and 3

Tesla Model S

Tesla Model S

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model 3

kWh/mile

kWh/mile

Miles

15243

11174

VM. kWh

5074

0.3329

2737

0.2449

WM, kWh

6614

0.4339

3442

0.3080

WM - VM, kWh

1540

0.1010

705

0.0631

Charging loss, 15% of WM

992

0.0651

516

0.0462

Self-use + Road/Climate, etc.

548

0.0359

0.0169

Table 3 shows the source energy required to have a quantity of electrical energy at a user’s wall meter.

The values for the Tesla EVs are based on real-world conditions.

The values for the NE mix of LDVs, were based on the mix using, on average, 0.350 kWh/mile from the battery, which is reasonable, as the mix would include full-size cross-overs, SUVs, minivans and 1/4-ton pick-ups.

 

Table 3/NE grid

NE LDV mix

Tesla

Tesla

NE grid CO2

NE grid CO3

Model S

Model 3

PE

SE

kWh/mile

kWh/mile

kWh/mile

gram/kWh

gram/kWh

Source energy

1.2291

1.1713

0.8315

Upstream for extraction, processing, transport, etc., 10.2%

0.1138

0.1084

0.0770

Primary energy

1.1153

1.0629

0.7545

Efficiency loss, 55.5%

0.6078

0.5793

0.4112

Gross electricity generation

0.5075

0.4836

0.3433

Plant self-use loss, 3.0%

0.0152

0.0145

0.0103

Net electricity generation = Fed to grid

0.4922

0.4691

0.3330

310

342

T&D loss, 7.5%

0.0369

0.0352

0.0250

Fed to wall meters, as AC

0.4553

0.4339

0.3080

335

369

Charging loss, 15%

0.0683

0.0651

0.0462

Self-use loss, about 7%

0.0370

0.0359

0.0169

In battery a mix of LDVs in NE, as DC

0.3500

0.3329

0.2449

436

480

.

Travel, miles/y

12000

15243

11174

Wall meter electricity, kWh/y

5475

6614

3442

2 EVs

10950

 

The NE electric grid CO2 emissions for 2017 (latest numbers) were 682 lb/MWh, or 682 x 454/1000 = 310 g/kWh, as fed by power producers to the high voltage grid.
ISO-NE, the grid operator, excludes the CO2 emissions of upstream energy.

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2019/04/2017_emissio...

 

- 310 g CO2/kWh, primary energy basis, would become 320 x 1.102 = 342 g CO2/kWh, source energy basis.

- 335 g CO2/kWh, primary energy basis, would become 335 x 1.102 = 369 g CO2/kWh, source energy basis.

- CO2 is 0.4553/0.3500 x 369 = 436 g/kWh, if battery charge change is used for calculating CO2 emissions, primary energy basis

- CO2 is 436 x 1.102 = 480 g/kWh, if battery charge change is used for calculating CO2 emissions, primary energy basis.

- Downstream not included. See Note.


NOTE: 

Most non-engineer analysts of EV energy flow do not use real-world values for upstream energy and driving energy.

Often, they omit the charging loss and self-use loss and it’s CO2.

Often, they do not ratio upwards the CO2, as above illustrated.

Their faulty analysis leads to lesser calculated values of EV kWh/mile and CO2/mile.

That likely leads to rosy thinking regarding EVs and likely to faulty decision-making and policy.

APPENDIX 1

Electricity Mix Based on Power Purchase Agreements: There are non-technical people talking about the “Vermont electricity mix” or the “New Hampshire electricity mix”. That mix exists only on paper, because it is based on power purchase agreements, PPAs, between utilities and owners of electricity generators.

A utility may claim it is 100% renewable. This means the utility has PPAs with owners of renewable generators, i.e. wind, solar, biomass, hydro, etc. That mix has nothing to do with physical reality.

If a utility did not have PPAs and drew electricity from the grid, it would be stealing, just as a person would be by bypassing the utility electric meter.

 

Electricity Mix Based on Physical Reality: Once electricity is fed into the NE electric grid by any generator, it travels:

 

- On un-insulated wires, as electromagnetic waves, EM, at somewhat less than the speed of light, i.e. from northern Maine to southern Florida, about 1800 miles in 0.01 of a second, per College Physics 101.

- On insulated wires, the speed decreases to as low as 2/3 the speed of light, depending on the application.

 

If those speeds were not that high, the NE electric grid would not work, and modern electronics would not work.

 

The electrons vibrate at 60 cycles per second, 60 Hz, and travel at less than 0.1 inch/second; the reason it takes so long to charge a battery.

 

It is unfortunate most high school teachers told students the electrons were traveling.

Teachers likely never told them about EM waves, or did not know it themselves.

http://www.djtelectricaltraining.co.uk/downloads/50Hz-Frequency.pdf

 

This article explains in detail what happens when electricity is fed to the grid.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/popular-misconceptions-...

 

NOTE:

- If you live off the grid, have your own PV system, batteries, and generator for shortages and emergencies, then you can say I use my own electricity mix.

- If you draw electricity, via a utility meter from a distribution grid, such as of GMP, which is connected to the Vermont HV grid and the NE HV grid, you draw the NE mix.

APPENDIX 2

Tesla US and worldwide sales are shown.

Tesla sold more Model 3, fewer Model S and Model X in 2019 than in 2018.

Tesla showed a profit for the last 2 quarters of 2019.

 

US sales decreased by 8.8% in 2019, and worldwide sales decreased 3.87%, while EV and plug-in hybrid models offered by manufacturers increased.

About 50% of US sales were in California

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.

https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/

https://insideevs.com/news/344007/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecar...

 

Table 4/Tesla

Year

2018

2019

2020

 

Subsidies

Full Federal

Decreasing federal

No federal

 

Qtr. 1

90700

63000

Qtr. 2

83725

95200

Qtr. 3

40740

97186

Qtr. 4

29997

112000

Tesla, worldwide

245162

367386

500000+

.

Change, %

US sales, Tesla

191627

192250

0.33

US sales, All EVs + All Plug-in hybrids

361307

329528

-8.80

.

Worldwide

2018247

1940147

-3.87

 

 

 

 

 

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Comment by Long Islander on February 5, 2020 at 12:55pm

Tesla ‘off the accelerator’ as stock takes worst stumble in more than 6 years
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-off-the-accelerator-as-stoc...

Comment by Willem Post on January 29, 2020 at 6:09pm

TAM

Tesla was up 70 points in after hours trading after earnings release.

1000 next year?

Comment by Thinklike A. Mountain on January 28, 2020 at 10:50pm

Elon Musk At War With German Environmentalists Protesting His New Gigafactory

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/elon-musk-war-german-environme...

Comment by Willem Post on January 28, 2020 at 12:13pm

Frank,

Most analyst use EPA values, or manufacturer values of kWh/mile. 

That is a gross mistake.

It is necessary to log the kWh from the wall meter AND log the increase in charge in the battery, as shown by the vehicle meter

That should be done for at least several months.

The difference of WM - VM = charge loss and self-use loss.

The ratio of WM/VM for the above Model S in upstate NY is 6614/5074 = 1.3035

The ration of of WM/VM of the above Model 3 in California = 3442/2737 = 1.2576 

Comment by Frank J. Heller, MPA on January 28, 2020 at 11:10am

technical, but it is possible to make some fuel comparisons. If a car gets 30 miles per gallon and a gallon costs $2.47 the comparative cost with a Tesla is how many kWh it uses to go that same distance x the cost per kWh. It appears a hybrid is the best deal??

Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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