CO2 Has a Very Minor Global Warming Role in the Atmosphere

CO2 Has a Very Minor Global Warming Role in the Atmosphere

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/co2-has-a-very-minor-r...

By Willem Post

.

Natural cycles drive our climate.

The current temperatures are higher than in 1850 by about 1.5 C, but only a small fraction of that can be attributed to CO2. 

The rest is due to 1) coming out of the Little Ice Age and 2) manmade changes to the earth surface, such as increased agriculture, net deforestation, very large urban heat islands.

.

We need a Pro-life, Pro-CO2 Coalition

Without CO2 there would be no flora and fauna, there would be no life on earth

Net Zero by 2050 is a suicide pact conjured up by climate zealots who are leading the IPCC, and claim they own the science.

.

They deny the Little Ice Age, support fraudulent computer temperature projections, and are using the USAID-subsidized Corporate Media to cow/control/brainwash the people, already for 35 years

CO2 is a trace, weak absorber of a small fraction of the available low-energy IR photons.
CO2 has near-zero influence on world surface temperatures
Fossil fuels are good, because they make possible our civilizations, plus they provide extra CO2 to increase crop yields to feed hungry people
.

The Tropics and Sub-tropics

CO2 a weak photon absorber, plays no measurable role, because, near the surface, it is outnumbered by about 27400/420 = 65 to 1 by water vapor, WV, a strong photon absorber.

Dry air molecules outnumber CO2 by 999,000/420 = 2400 to 1, and WV by 999,000/27400 = 35 to 1

All IR surface photons are eliminated by collision or absorption within 10 meter of the surface.

.

WV, 18, is lighter than CO2, 44, and air, 29, so it rises and condenses into clouds at about 2,000-meter elevation.

The clouds, with prevailing winds, are transported to northern latitudes, to areas underserved by the sun, especially during winter, with trees dormant for 6 or more months.

That means the WV and clouds we see up north, from the 37th parallel upwards, come from faraway places, because up north there is not enough energy to evaporate much water, where flora sheds its leaves and hibernates from September to April, and where much fauna hibernates or migrates to southern latitudes.

Any evaporation is from near or on the ground, such as from as dew, ground fog, snow and ice.

But, even up north, near the surface, CO2 plays no measurable role, because WV outnumbers CO2 by about 17700/420 = 42 to 1

.

Northern Latitudes, such as New England

Low- Pressure System

During a low-pressure system, clouds from elsewhere accumulate to form a dense layer, which may produce precipitation; rain in summer, sleet and snow in winter.

Right now, Jan 11, 2025, pressure is low, temperature is 20 F, cloud cover is 100%, PV panels covered with snow, no wind, and it is snowing.

Thank the Lord for fossil fuels, as otherwise we would be very miserable.

Local WV will freeze on grass and trees during the night in winter. It will evaporate by sunshine during the next day.

.

High Pressure System

During a high-pressure system, dry winds are from the North, skies go from being cloudy to almost clear.

There is little wind when the high pressure is established.

There are strong winds from the north during the transitory stage, from low- to high pressure,

At colder temperatures above the clouds, any emitted IR photons would have longer wavelengths beyond the CO2 15 micrometer absorption window.

However, WV would absorb these photons, because it has a much wider window starting at about 15 micrometer.

.

At higher elevation, temperature is less, density is less, there are fewer molecules/m^3 or moles/m^3, there are fewer collisions, because molecules are moving slower and are further apart.

The average kinetic energy of molecules decreases with temperature. See URL

KE avg = 3/2 R*T = 3/2 x (8.314 J / K) * T, where T is in Kelvin.

https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-albany-chemistry/chapter/the...

.

NOTE: A photon, a vibrating package of energy with a wavelength, has no mass, moves at the speed of light in a vacuum, which is many orders of magnitude greater than the speed of molecules.

.

Above the Clouds

CO2 at 400 ppm begins to play a measurable role when WV is about 1200 ppm at about 3,000 m elevation, which usually is above the clouds.

.

WV freezes on dry air molecules and CO2 molecules, pollen, aerosols, etc., similar to combustion WV condensing/freezing on the exhaust from jet engines of airliners at 10,000 m elevation.

As a result, WV is about 1.8 ppm from 20 km to 80 km elevation. See URL

.

Any sunlight high-frequency/short-wavelength photons are reflected or refracted.

IR photons will be absorbed by ice-covered WV molecules, or will collide with ice-covered dry air molecules

IR photons will not be absorbed by ice-covered CO2 molecules.

.

The thermal effect of high-elevation absorption of IR photons (with longer wavelengths) is miniscule, compared to the absorption of IR photons (with shorter wavelengths) near the earth surface.

.

The atmosphere heat content/m^3, aka Enthalpy, is 358 kJ / m^3 near the surface, decreases to 19.5 KJ / m^3 at 20 km.

See complete table in URL

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/natural-forces-cause-p...

.

Comments on Global Energy Flows Image

The values shown are annual averages.

.

Almost all IR photons near the surface are thermalized by collision with hugely abundant dry air molecules.

The remaining fraction of IR photons near the surface is absorbed as follows:

- CO2, a trace gas (0.042%), is a weak absorber of a small fraction of the remaining IR photons near the surface

- Water vapor, much more abundant than CO2, is a strong absorber of a large fraction of the remaining IR photons near the surface

.

All IR photons near the surface are thermalized within about 10 m of the surface

That means, heat is added to the atmosphere near the surface causing air to move upwards.

Cold, dry, heavy air moves downwards to replace it.

.

NOTE: This process is visible in New England, when the rising sun evaporates dew, which rises as thin veils from meadows until the veils join clouds at 2000 meter later in the day. It is invisible about 7 months of the year, due to insufficient energy from the tropics and direct solar energy, and snow/ice, etc.

.

At about 2000 m, WV begins to condense into clouds and WV ppm becomes significantly decreased.

That WV, higher up, freezes onto dry air and CO2 molecules, and any other particulates.

.

In the Tropics, El Niños significantly increase evaporation and cloud cover in the tropics, which have the net effect of increasing the average world surface temperature by up to 0.7 C in about a year.
It would take CO2 about 100 years to accomplish that.

.

There is cold downward IR radiation at longer wavelengths from the bottoms of clouds, which impacts the surface and gets re-radiated at even longer wavelengths, well beyond what CO2 can absorb, but well within what WV can absorb.

.

There is cold upward IR radiation at longer wavelengths from the tops of clouds, well beyond what can be absorbed by CO2, but well within what WV can absorb.

.

Based on physics, there is a very small percentage role played by CO2, a rare gas (0.042%) and weak absorber of IR photons. 

.

The image shows 396 W/m2 is emitted as IR radiation from earth surface, with 356 W/m2 to atmosphere, and 40 W/m2 to space.

The atmosphere re-emits 333 W/m2 of colder IR photons with longer wavelengths to earth surface, and 169 W/m2 of colder IR photons with longer wavelengths to space, plus 30 W/m2 of colder IR photons with longer wavelengths from the tops of clouds, for a total to space of 40 + 169 + 30 = 239 W/m2.

Almost all colder photons cannot be absorbed by CO2, but they can be absorbed by water vapor

.

Not separately shown is the cold IR radiation from the bottoms of clouds to earth surface, which greatly depends on cloud cover, as shown below.

.

.

The Logarithmic Temperature Rise of Higher CO2 Levels

This image shows, each time CO2 ppm doubles, the temperature increases only 1 C

.

.

How to Think about Climate Change

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/01/24/how-to-think-about-climate-c...

. 

Here is the source article

https://www.independent.org/issues/article.asp?id=13458

By William Happer

.

Radiation Transport in Clouds

https://scienceofclimatechange.org/wp-content/uploads/SCC-2025-vWij...

By Drs. van Wijngaarden and Happer

.

The article details just how insignificant CO2 is as a factor in climate change, revealing that doubling the CO2 concentration from 400 ppm to 800 ppm – a 100% increase – hypothetically reduces radiative heat loss to space by just 1%.

It would take many decades to achieve such a ppm increase, plus there are not enough fossil fuels left over to make it happen.

.

Because CO2 has increased by only 50% since 1850 (280 ppm to 420 ppm), the CO2 total greenhouse effect regarding reducing upward IR radiation has thus far been in the range of tenths of a percentage point.

Such a small change in upward IR radiation, over 175 years, is not even detectable amid the noise of outgoing radiation measurement.

For example, the measured upward IR radiation has an error of about  33 W/m²

.

This negligible CO2 greenhouse effect is a calculated value for an atmosphere that is perpetually cloud-free.

As clouds are present 60 to 70% of the time, this clear-sky-only condition only occurs in an imaginary world – an atmosphere that doesn’t exist.

Compared to the CO2 role, the greenhouse effect of clouds is tens of times more influential.

To cool the Earth by a few percent, low cloud cover needs to increase by only a few percent.

.

During cloudy skies, there is warming, due to downward IR radiation from cloud bottoms at about 340 W/m^2

During clear skies, there is about 30% less warming, due to upward IR radiation at about 260 W/m^2, primarily from the thermal IR radiation of water vapor and CO2

.

A 5% increase in cloud cover could happen during an El Neno.

Increased warm water vapor and warm clouds are transported from the tropics to northern latitudes.

.

If cloud cover increases from 60 to 65%, the upward IR radiation (cooling) from earth surface decreases by (0.40 - 0.35) x 260 = 13 W/m^2, and downward IR radiation (warming) from cloud bottoms increases by (0.65 – 0.60) x 340 = 17 W/m^2, for a net warming increase of about 30 W/m^2

Also, increased cloud cover: 1) reduces solar radiation to the surface, 2) increases reflection of solar radiation by cloud tops, 3) increases IR radiation at long wavelengths by cloud tops. All three have a cooling effect.     

.

Because cloud cover changes of much more than 1% routinely occur, such as during El Ninos, over time-scales of a few years, the role of CO2 within the greenhouse effect is insignificant, if not irrelevant.

.

Cloud cover changes are the only plausible explanation for most of the modest “secular” warming of the past two centuries. Together with ocean current fluctuations (see below URLs), cloud cover changes are also the only physical mechanism that could account for fluctuating temperature changes with time scales of a few years.

.

Based on fundamental physics, one should expect some warming from increasing CO2. But this warming will be too small to account for what has been observed.

Cloud cover changes provide the only rational explanation that does not violate basic physics.

.

El Nino Warming Events Occur Tens of Times Faster than CO2 Warming Effects

All the peak temps align with El Niños, which increase evaporation, increase cloud cover by up to 5%, and temporarily increase surface temps by 0.2 to 0.7 C, in less than 2 years.
CO2, a trace gas (0.042% presence) and weak absorber of a small part of the available IR photons, plays an invisible role.

The increase in low cloud cover reduces the cooling effect of upward IR radiation and increases the warming effect of downward IR radiation from cloud bottoms. See URLs

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/natural-forces-cause-p...
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/hunga-tonga-volcanic-e...

.

.

Here are four articles attesting to the small global warming role of CO2 in the atmosphere

.

Eight Taiwanese Engineers Determine Climate Sensitivity to a 300 ppm CO2 Increase Is 'Negligibly Small'

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/eight-taiwanese-engine...

The Fairy Tale of The CO2 Paradise Before 1850...A Look at The Real Science

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-fairy-tale-of-the-...

Achieving 'Net Zero by 2050' Reduces Temps by 0.28 C Costing Tens of $TRILLIONS

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/achieving-net-zero-by-...

German Researcher: Doubling Of Atmospheric CO2 Causes Only 0.24°C Of Warming ...Practically Insignificant

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/german-researcher-doub... 

.

Solar Flux, Atmosphere Enthalpy

Radiation flux, W/m^2, from the sun varies very little from year to year
Radiation warms the earth each day and cools the earth each day, as the earth rotates.
.

Some heat is retained in the atmosphere on a steady basis, which ensures flora and fauna, including us, are comfortable.

.

Enthalpy of dry air, at 1 m, K = 288.15, equals 287.113 kJ/m^3 of dry air, of WV = 4.829, of CO2 = 0.154

WV enthalpy is 4.829/0.154 = 31.4 times greater than CO2

.

Enthalpy of dry air, at 5000 m, K = - 49.7, equals 256.494 kJ/m^3 of dry air, of WV = 0.711, of CO2 = 0.124

WV enthalpy is 0.711/0.124 = 5.73 times greater than CO2

.

From near the surface to about 2000 m, CO2 plays almost no role in the heat-retention/distribution process, compared with WV.
The main role of CO2 is to grow flora and fauna.
The more CO2 ppm, the better.

.

The Atmosphere has three temperature regions

The Troposphere, from earth surface to about 10 km, has gradually decreasing temperatures from 289 K to 220 K, contains 75% of the atmosphere mass.

The lower Stratosphere, from 10 km to 18 km, has a constant temperature of about 220 K (- 53 C), contains about 20% of the atmosphere mass. This region is used by world airline planes, which often have contrails from their engines, with WV of combustion freezing on ash particles. The sunlight scatters and makes the contrails visible. Later they diffuse into a haze.

The upper Stratosphere, from 18 km to 40 km, has gradually increasing temperatures from 220 K to 250 K, contains 5% of the atmosphere mass. See Image

. 

.

CO2 ppm Data Measured at 4 Locations

Why is there such big difference in CO2 ppm amplitude between Mauna Loa, red, and Point Barrow, blue?

The southern hemisphere with lees fossil fuel consumption, and minor flora and fauna, has small differences.

https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/about.html

.