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A new analysis indicates tripling the atmospheric CO2 concentration from 100 to 400 ppm only produces a 0.3°C surface warming effect.
Eight engineers (Wei et al., 2024) from the National Sun Yat-Sen University in Taiwan have assessed the capacity of rising CO2 concentrations to affect surface air temperature (SAT) over a 5-year research observation period.
They constructed a model of the energy balance between the net incident flux and emission at the Earth’s surface.
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“This work examines one-dimensional transient temperature changes due to conduction, and radiative heat transfer including collimated radiation as a function of longitude, latitude, and altitude, as well as diffuse radiation determined by absorption bands based on wavelength, temperature, and the concentration or pressure of carbon dioxide and water vapor.”
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The research results do not support the prevailing narrative, increasing CO2 ppm is a driver of surface air temperature, SAT, change.
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The researchers found tripling atmospheric CO2 from 100 ppm to 400 ppm produces a “negligibly small” 0.3°C warming effect.
This temperature change is only associated with the increase from 100 ppm to 350 ppm, and includes no additional warming as CO2 increases from 350 ppm to 400 ppm.
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“…the effects of CO2 concentration in comparison with spatial and time variations on temperature are negligibly small near the ground surface, because vastly more abundant water vapor, a strong GHG, absorbs almost all of the surface IR photons not destroyed by collisions with air molecules.”
“The temperature at 5 m above the ground increases by approximately 0.3 K = 0.3 C, and then maintains constant as CO2 concentrations increase from 100 to 350 ppm and from 350 to 400 ppm over a 5-year period.”
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IPCC Claims: For the last 30 years, the IPCC has claimed a 300 ppm CO2 increase – roughly doubling the CO2 concentration from 300 to 600 ppm – will produce about a 3 C increase (2.0 to 4.5 C) in surface air temperature.
Thus, this new research indicates the IPCC may be overestimating CO2’s capacity to warm the surface by at least factor of 10.
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