Eight Taiwanese Engineers Determine Climate Sensitivity to a 300 ppm CO2 Increase Is 'Negligibly Small'

Eight Taiwanese Engineers Determine Climate Sensitivity to a 300 ppm CO2 Increase Is 'Negligibly Small'

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A new analysis indicates tripling the atmospheric CO2 concentration from 100 to 400 ppm only produces a 0.3°C surface warming effect.

Eight engineers (Wei et al., 2024) from the National Sun Yat-Sen University in Taiwan have assessed the capacity of rising CO2 concentrations to affect surface air temperature (SAT) over a 5-year research observation period.

They constructed a model of the energy balance between the net incident flux and emission at the Earth’s surface.

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“This work examines one-dimensional transient temperature changes due to conduction, and radiative heat transfer including collimated radiation as a function of longitude, latitude, and altitude, as well as diffuse radiation determined by absorption bands based on wavelength, temperature, and the concentration or pressure of carbon dioxide and water vapor.”

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The research results do not support the prevailing narrative, increasing CO2 ppm is a driver of surface air temperature, SAT, change.

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The researchers found tripling atmospheric CO2 from 100 ppm to 400 ppm produces a “negligibly small” 0.3°C warming effect.

This temperature change is only associated with the increase from 100 ppm to 350 ppm, and includes no additional warming as CO2 increases from 350 ppm to 400 ppm.

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“…the effects of CO2 concentration in comparison with spatial and time variations on temperature are negligibly small near the ground surface, because vastly more abundant water vapor, a strong GHG, absorbs almost all of the surface IR photons not destroyed by collisions with air molecules.”

“The temperature at 5 m above the ground increases by approximately 0.3 K  = 0.3 C, and then maintains constant as CO2 concentrations increase from 100 to 350 ppm and from 350 to 400 ppm over a 5-year period.”

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IPCC Claims: For the last 30 years, the IPCC has claimed a 300 ppm CO2 increase – roughly doubling the CO2 concentration from 300 to 600 ppm – will produce about a 3 C increase (2.0 to 4.5 C) in surface air temperature.

Thus, this new research indicates the IPCC may be overestimating CO2’s capacity to warm the surface by at least factor of 10.

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Comment by Willem Post on December 18, 2024 at 11:24am

In the tropics and subtropics, CO2 a weak photon absorber, plays no measurable role, because, near the surface, it is outnumbered by at least seventy to one by water vapor, a strong photon absorber,

plus water vapor, 18, is lighter than CO2, 44, and air, 29, so it condenses into clouds at about 2000 meter elevation, which, with prevailing winds, are transported to northern latitudes, to areas underserved by the sun, especially during winter.

That means the water vapor and clouds we see up north comes from faraway places, because up north there is not enough energy to evaporate the water, which often lies on the ground as snow and ice.

But, even up north, near the surface, CO2 plays no measurable role, because water vapor outnumbers it at least 20 to one.

CO2 begins to play a measurable role when the presence of water vapor is lower, say 3 to 1, which is above the clouds.

However, above the clouds it is colder, and any photons emitted there would have longer wavelengths beyond the CO2 15 micrometer absorption window, but water vapor would absorb these photons, because it has a much wider window starting at about 15 micrometer.

No liberal arts journalists would ever write this, because it is way above their heads. That is the reason they stick to talking points provided by self-serving $stakeholders and their associates

 

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Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

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(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

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