US Infrastructure is Nowhere Near Ready for EV timeline of Biden's Teleprompter Controllers
By Paul Homewood
U.S. policymakers are going all-in on electric vehicles (EVs), but the supporting infrastructures (electricity generation, grid expansion/augmentation, charging stations, etc., will require vast upgrades to be ready for the giant changeover.
Recently, Biden’s teleprompter controllers announced a goal of increasing U.S. EV production to 50 percent of the U.S. annual sales by 2030, just 8 years from now.
It’s a hugely aggressive goal, requiring trillion dollar investments, while interest rates are increasing, and an out-of-control, manipulated CPI inflation rate of 8.6%, which likely will further increase; the real, not-manipulated CPI is increasing at more than 12%
It takes about $2.5 billion, and about 4 years (siting, land acquisition, permitting, plant design, build the plant, get to full production) to have in operation one Tesla plant that produces 500,000 EVs/year; higher inflation rates, higher interest rates, higher energy prices, higher materials prices, higher prices of scarce rare-earth materials, and continuing supply chain disruptions will play havoc with budgets, schedules and EV production
In addition, increased mining in various parts of the world, and increased other efforts are required to produce the battery packs, plus the thousands of other parts, made with fossil fuels, and with embedded fossil fuels, to assemble the EVs
The Biden teleprompter controllers would need about 18 of such plants, plus the increased mining, etc., to have a US sales level of 9 million EVs/y by 2030, assuming US annual sales are 18 million cars in 2030.
NOTE: This fantasy goal is similar to the off-the-charts extreme goal of 30,000 MW of offshore wind turbines by 2030; existing capacity of US offshore wind turbines is about 50 MW. The Biden fools adding 30,000 MW of very expensive offshore wind, would be donating a financial bonanza to Europe, because it would make oodles of money, plus it would permanently saddle the US, a trade competitor, with much higher energy costs, in addition to the enormous ANNUAL costs of defending Europe.
Current EV production is just 3-4 percent t of U.S. annual sales. The automotive sector and its supporting infrastructures would need a massive transformation to reach a more realistic 10 percent.
We would need hundreds of thousands of new charging stations, each with multiple outlets.
We would need more electricity generation and much, much less expensive ways to store it in batteries (not yet invented) and much more enhanced electricity distribution systems
And though Biden’s grossly incompetent posse of clowns is providing $3.1 billion in grants to seed the charging station process, the private sector will need to step up in a major way.
First thing to state, is the author is clearly lobbying for EVs, with silly statements, such as:
“In 2021, EV and hybrid sales nearly doubled. As younger, more green-conscious buyers arrive in the market, that’s only bound to accelerate. “
I doubt whether many young drivers would be able to afford to make the payments on a five-year bank loan at 5%/y, to finance an EV, with a total cost of about $50,000 to $60,000 (AWD, long range, no extras, including sales tax, documentation, dealer prep/delivery, plus home charger).
The delivery of a Tesla, with adequate range during New England winters, takes up to 8 months, at present.
Or whether the vast majority of young drivers are quite as green as he imagines.
There is a world of difference between issuing a feel-good press release, and what cars people will decide to buy to suit their needs. After all, people have been buying cars to suit their needs for over 100 years. THEY are the experts.
It will not be possible to bribe them with hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies, while the U.S. debt is galloping from $30-plus TRILLION to $40 TRILLION by 2030
Today, America has about 145,000 gas stations. Yet peddling electricity is an entirely different animal.
It takes just five minutes to fill up a tank of a gasoline vehicle. Those five minutes give you 500 miles of range, enough to drive for 2 to 4 weeks.
Recharging a battery takes a minimum of 45 minutes
To match the 500 miles, an EV would need to be recharged at least three times, making a total charging time of at least 1 hour and 15 minutes, longer in winter.
Even allowing for some cars being charged at home, we are looking at 1 million EV charging stations, each with 5 to 10 chargers
At, say, $1 million each, we are looking at an investment of $1 trillion.
Most of this will have to come from private capital.
It is certain, Congress will never agree to pay more than the token amounts already pledged.
But here is the dilemma. No business is going to lay out this sort of capital, and then have it sit more or less idle for years, waiting for EV demand to pick up.
Equally, drivers are not going to buy EVs until the charging infrastructure is in place.
It is not possible to ban gasoline cars in the US, because the Federal Government does not have the constitutional power; the States may have that power.
In all, it would appear the EV target of Biden’s teleprompter controllers is just hot air, just another example of their lack of critical thinking regarding the reality of ordinary people’s lives.