Sen. Mark Lawrence, (D) Co-Chair, Energy, Utilities, and Technology Committee, who sponsored the law, said:
"Each time one of these solar sites goes in, we're improving the strength of our distribution system in the state. That increases reliability, that increases efficiency, it decreases power outages. So, it's building the health of our grid."
This man is demented.
Maine adopts new law to lower the cost of electricity generated by ...
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Comment by Willem Post on August 24, 2023 at 5:40am
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BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...
EXCERPT
Multi-day Wind/Solar Lulls
If, at some future date, gas, oil, and nuclear power plants were no longer allowed, and were replaced by wind and solar systems, battery systems would need about a month of electricity delivery to cover:
1) Randomly occurring, 5 to 7-day wind/solar lulls with mostly minimal output, that could be followed by another multi-day wind/solar lull a few days later
2) Seasonal wind/solar output variations
3) Year-to-year wind/solar output variations of 25 - 30%.
NOTE: The German ENERGIEWENDE target is 80 - 95% of electricity generation from renewables by 2050.
Germany uses 1) connections to nearby grids, 2) fossil fuel standby/backup plants for counteracting/balancing most of its wind and solar, especially during sunny and windy days. Large-scale battery storage is deemed too expensive. See URLs.
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2017/01/Vahrenholt-Energiew...
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blog/list?user=0fk5o2ukdpq69
US Utilities Capital and Operating Cost Data
US Utilities, which own a large number of various type battery systems, publicize a minimum amount of year-by-year spreadsheet information regarding the:
1) All-in, turnkey capital cost of their battery systems
2) Hourly and daily operating data, including all-in, round-trip losses, and usage for each service.
3) Revenues earned from each service
4) Annual cost of: 1) owner’s income, 2) cost of financing, 3) O&M expenses, 4) all other expenses
5) How much of Owner annual costs is offset by subsidies and other financial benefits
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BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...
EXCERPT
All-in Turnkey Cost of Battery System to Offset a Wind Lull of One Day
At a future date:
Installed onshore/offshore wind systems would be 10,107 MW AC to provide 25% of NE grid load
Installed solar systems would be 23,766 MW DC to provide 25% of NE grid load
Wind annual average output would be 31,250,000 MWh/y x 1/8,766 h/y = 3,565 MW
Wind capacity factor 3565/10107 = 0.353
Battery systems to Deal with One-Day Wind Lull
For analysis purposes:
1) The wind MW is assumed to become 0.15 x 3565 = 535 MW, during a one-day wind lull
2) Tesla recommends normal battery operation within 20% full to 80% full, to achieve a 15-y useful service life. We assume the batteries are at 70% full at start of wind/solar lull, and maximum drawdown is to 10% full, for a 0.6 available capacity.
3) A more exact analysis would be on an hour-to-hour basis, instead of annual average basis
4) The solar part of the one-day wind/solar lull is separately shown below.
At least (3565 – 535) MW x 0.770 MW/Megapack x 1/0.6, available capacity x 1/0.926, Tesla design factor = 7,083 Tesla, 4-h Megapacks, arranged in parallel to obtain the desired MW
Each parallel unit would have 5 additional Megapacks, for an energy delivery of 6 x 4 = 24 hours, to offset just the wind lull
This assumes only batteries would offset the wind lull, i.e., no output from other power plants would be available.
Supplied by Tesla 7,083 x 6 x $1.1 million each = $46.748 billion
Supply by Others $6.693 billion. See Part 1
All-in, turnkey cost about $46.748 b + $6.693 b = $53.441 billion
Battery Systems to Deal with Midday Solar Output Surge
A separate battery system, consisting of several thousand 4-h Megapacks, arranged in parallel, would be needed almost every day, to absorb a part of the MW and MWh of the midday solar surge, because that surge from 23,766 MW DC of solar systems likely would exceed midday demand; the alternative would be to export it to nearby grids, as Germany does to nearby countries.
After round-trip losses of about 20%, the battery systems would discharge the remaining 80% during the peak hours of late-afternoon/early-evening
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BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...
EXCERPT
Turnkey Capital Cost of Tesla-Megapack Battery Systems
Tesla is the world’s largest provider of lithium-ion battery systems, that include front-end power electronics, batteries, back-end power electronics, heating and cooling systems for batteries and enclosures
Megapack rated outputs increased from 2021, to 2022, to 2023
Megapack pricing varies due to market conditions
The 2021 pricing for a 10 Megapack system, 4h, with installation, was about $10 million, or $328/kWh
The 2022 pricing for a 10 Megapack system, 4h, with installation, was about $16 million, or $412/kWh
The 2023 pricing for a 10 Megapack system, 4h, with installation, was about $19.1 million, or $487/kWh
Tesla Megapacks had a 487/328 = 48.5% price increase from 2021 to 2023
Connecting the Megapacks into a system incurs losses, which are represented by the “Tesla design factor”
After applying the factor, the above $/kWh is increased! See URLs and below examples.
https://electrek.co/2022/03/21/tesla-hikes-megapack-prices-backlog-...
https://www.tesla.com/megapack/design
1) Example of Turnkey Cost of Large-Scale, Megapack Battery System, based on 2022 pricing
PG&E, a California utility, put a battery system in operation at Moss Landing in April 2022
The system consists of 256 Megapacks, rated capacity 182.5 MW/730 MWh, 4-h energy delivery.
Power = 256 Megapacks x 0.770 MW x 0.926, Tesla design factor = 182.5 MW
Energy = 256 Megapacks x 3.070 MWh x 0.929, Tesla design factor = 730 MWh
We assume $1.1 million/Megapack, because of large number of units
Estimated supply by Tesla is 256 Megapacks x $1.1 million = $282 million, or $386/kWh
Estimated supply by others is $62/kWh
All-in, turnkey cost about $448/kWh; 2022 pricing
The primary purpose of this battery system is to absorb midday solar output bulges, and deliver about 80% of it to during the peak demand hours of late afternoon/early evening.
Any costs associated with battery systems are charged to ratepayers, taxpayers and added to government debt, i.e., not charged to Owners of solar and battery systems, the grid disturbers.
https://www.10news.com/news/national/pg-es-tesla-megapack-battery-i...
2) Example of Turnkey Cost of Large-Scale, Megapack Battery System, based on 2023 pricing
The system consists of 50 Megapack 2, rated capacity 45.3 MW/181.9 MWh, 4-h energy delivery
Power = 50 Megapacks x 0.979 MW x 0.926, Tesla design factor = 45.3 MW
Energy = 50 Megapacks x 3.916 MWh x 0.929, Tesla design factor = 181.9 MWh
Estimate of supply by Tesla is $90 million, or $495/kWh. See URL
Estimate of supply by Others is $14.5 million, or $80/kWh
All-in, turnkey cost about $575/kWh; 2023 pricing
https://www.tesla.com/megapack/design
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-03-21_15-28-4...
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/tesla-hikes-megapack-prices-c...
Operating Cost of Megapack Battery Systems
Assume a 4-h battery system rated at 45.3 MW/181.9 MWh, and an all-in turnkey cost of $104.5 million, per above Example 2
Amortizing a bank loan for 50% of $104.5 million at 6%/y for 15 years will cost $5.291 million/y
Paying the Owner for his investment of 50% of $104.5 million at 9%/y for 15 years will cost $6.359 million/y (9% because of high inflation)
Lifetime (Bank + Owner) payments 15 x (5.291 + 6.359) = $174.75 million
Assume battery daily usage for 15 years is 10%, at a loss of 20%
To HV grid is 15 y x 365 d/y x 181.9 MWh x 0.1, throughput = 99,590,250 kWh
From HV grid to charge battery, 124,487,813 kWh
Loss, 24,897,563 kWh
(Bank + Owner) payments is $174.75 million / 99,590,250 kWh = 175.5 c/kWh
Cost of loss is 24,897,563 kWh x 6 c/kWh, assumed = $1,493,854, or $1,493,854 / 99,590,250 kWh = 1.5 c/kWh
Total cost is 175.5 + 1.5 = 177 c/kWh
Less subsidies at 50% (ITC, depreciation in 5 years, deduction of interest on borrowed funds) is 88.5 c/kWh
At 10% usage, publicized cost would be 88.5 c/kWh
At 40% usage, publicized cost would be 22.7 c/kWh
Not included: 1) O&M; 2) system aging, 4) plus, in year 15, decommissioning, i.e., disassembly, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites.
NOTE 1: The 40% usage is close to Tesla’s recommendation of 60% usage, i.e., not charging in excess of 80% and not discharging to less than 20%,
Tesla’s recommendation was not heeded be Hornsdale Power Reserve owners.
Megapacks were added to offset rapid aging of the existing system and to increase the rating of the expanded system.
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-hornsdale-power-res...
NOTE 2: After looking at several aerial photos of large-scale battery systems with many Megapacks, it is clear many other items of equipment are shown, other than the Tesla supply, such as step-down/step-up transformers, switchgear, connections to the grid, land, access roads, fencing, security, site lighting, i.e., the cost of the Tesla supply is only one part of the battery system cost at a site.
NOTE 3: Battery system turnkey capital costs and electricity storage costs likely will be much higher in 2023 and future years, than in 2021 and earlier years, due to: 1) increased inflation rates, 2) increased interest rates, 3) supply chain disruptions, which delay projects and increase costs, 4) increased energy prices, such as of oil, gas, coal, electricity, etc., 5) increased materials prices, such as of tungsten, cobalt, lithium, copper, manganese, etc., 6) increased labor rates.
NOTE 4: World cobalt production was 142,000 and 170,000 metric ton, in 2020 and 2021, respectively, of which the Democratic Republic of the Congo was 120,000 metric ton in 2021.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-02-02/Global-cobalt-production-hits...
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/drc-mining-industry-child-la...
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We are now at 30 cents KWH headed for.50 if Pine Tree Power is approved. Thanks. alot PUC and allthe crony politicians
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Not sure how much longer ratepayers will be greenwashed by such "misinformation". I get promos weekly in my mailbox touting the cheapness of solar power and pushing sign ups. I've also heard from those who've fallen for their spiel and regretted it. The electric bills tell the true story.
I can see one of these industrial solar sites from a high point on my land. At first I thought it was a large pond or lake I'd never noticed before. But no. It was silicon from China carpeting what was once a potato field. Spoiler alert: I live off grid on a very small photovoltaic system and have done so for the past thirty plus years. I wish all politicians would embrace the same lifestyle for a year, or twenty years. They'd soon be pushing nuclear if they wanted to maintain their "civilized" lifestyles.
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Each time one of these ugly solar systems get connected to the grid, it will be another contributor to the instability of the distribution or High Voltage grid, that has to be counteracted/balanced by OTHER GENERATING POWER PLANTS, USUALLY GAS-fired, which requires more Btu/kWh, more CO2/kWh, more c/kWh.
This idiot/ignorant/lying Lawrence is saying to opposite of what is actually the case.
I have about 40 years of energy systems analysis experience
The turnkey cost of solar systems has increased by 45% compared to 2021, which means their electricity also is 45% more expensive, about 16c/kWh, without subsidies
Maine as Third World Country:
CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power
Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.
Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT
******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********
(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/
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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law
Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future
"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."
https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/
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