The Political Consequences Of Ukraine's Decision To Cut Off Russian Gas To Europe

By Andrew Korybko  

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Russia and the EU will manage the latest phase of their US/UK-instigated energy divorce without much difficulty, but the US might offer to bring them back together by authorizing Ukraine's import of Russian pipeline gas in exchange for some concessions from the Kremlin in the energy sector and regarding the Ukraine settlement...

However, Russia is winning in Ukraine. It would be absolutely nuts to make "concessions" that would impair its core security requirements.

It does not have to, because its sells large quantities of pipeline gas to China, and LNG to India, Japan, etc.

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Kiev refused to extend its five-year agreement with Gazprom, that expired on on Dec 31, 2024.

This reality is much more political than anything else, since the EU and Russia already weathered much more serious disruptions throughout 2022 and 2023.

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In 2022, US/EU imposed sanctions on Russia, but those sanctions had a huge negative effect on Europe, which has a near-zero, real-growth GDP, with high inflation, high interest rates, high price increases and stagnant wages.

This has created social unrest, which caused the governments of France, Germany, the UK, etc., to teeter on the brink of dysfunction.

However, Russia's GDP has been growing at 3 to 5%, since 2022, despite sanctions, plus Russia became more of a sovereign country by domestically creating most of the products and services it used to import from Europe.

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Impoverished Moldova has a habit of not paying for the pipeline gas that Gazprom was providing.

As a result, gas to Moldova was shut off January 1, 2025, as stated for months by Gazprom.

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Ukraine ending its transmission contract of Russian pipeline gas will adversely affect Slovakia and Hungary However, each country can import 50% costlier LNG from various sources.

Hungary is already getting some pipeline gas via TurkStream.

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Bargaining Chips

Ukraine’s transmission pipeline could be reopened, after the conflict is settled

The same holds true for the Yamal pipeline, and one of the four lines of NordStream.

Europe would gain access to low-cost Russian gas to avoid further de-industrialization. 

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Russia still profits from LNG exports to the EU

Russia’s LNG competitors are largely unable to scale up their LNG exports to replace Russian pipeline gas  

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Russia and the EU would benefit much more, if they re-established as much as possible to their pre-2022 gas supply arrangements.

The US has an interest in making concessions to achieve this end.

China

The US desires Russia not to increase its supply of fossil fuels to China.

US could incentivize Russia into agreeing to this US desire by releasing Russia's seized assets.

However, the EU holds almost all of these seized assets.

The US is thinking, Russia might agree to this swap, if a large enough amount is offered in order to help manage its latest fiscal and monetary challenges.

However, this is wishful thinking, because Russia has plenty of currency and gold reserves, and a strong currency, and a strong, growing economy, with about 2% unemployment and rising real wages.

Russia and China are allies. Russia will build new pipelines and other infrastructures with China.

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NOTE: The value of gold increased from about $1600/ounce to about $2900/ounce.

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NOTE: China and Russia have signed several dozen, extremely generous agreements with Kazakhstan in 2023 and 2024, that are highly beneficial to Kazakhstan (much better than the less generous, poorly co-ordinated, pie-in -the-sky promises of the West), including:

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1) rapid construction of thousands of miles of railroad lines directly from Kazakhstan via Mongolia to China (Kazakhstan is a very long country), and

2) several nuclear plants entirely financed, designed, built, owned and operated by Russia with maximal Kazakhstan labor and materials input and using Kazakhstan uranium/pitchblende. As part of the contract, Russia processes the uranium/pitchblende, provides the fuel bundles, does the refueling, reprocesses the spent fuel, and stores any radioactive materials. That means a full service contract, which Russia often offers when selling its nuclear plants. No fuss, no muss for the country in which the plant is located, and

3) rapid construction of additional railroad lines between Russia and Kazakhstan, also financed, etc., by Russia.

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Russia’s core security requirements regarding ending the fighting in Ukraine are:

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1) a politically neutral, non-aligned, nuclear-weapon free, friendly, de-Nazified Ukraine,

2) no restrictions on Russian culture, religion, education, language, books, songs, news/entertainment outlets, etc.

3) no NATO weapons, trainers, facilities, etc., in Ukraine 

4) a limited Ukraine military self-defense force, with no NATO weapons, etc.

5) all lands east of the Dnieper to belong to Russia, including the Kharkiv and Odessa provinces; Odessa City was founded by Katherine the Great in 1794. Ukraine may lose access to the Black Sea.

6) lift all sanctions

NOTE: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan of Türkiye calling for ‘immediate’ ceasefire in Ukraine is naïve, because it would allow NATO to continue building military facilities in west Ukraine, and arm the Ukraine Armed Forces, UAF, to the teeth, without Russia being able to destroy them.

https://www.rt.com/russia/610388-türkiye-immediate-ceasefire-ukraine/

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As an historical reminder, the US/EU/UK/NATO, the prime mover of the Ukraine imbroglio, advanced NATO to the borders of Russia, after promising Gorbachev “NATO would not move one inch beyond East Germany" in 1990

Then the US/EU/UK/NATO financed and instigated the violent Kiev Coup d'Etat/Color Revolution in 2014, with Victoria Nuland as its leader, claiming "we spent $5 billion since 1990 to get this far".

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This led to the US officially announcing the "weakening" of Russia with:

1) sanctions,

2) foreign-financed NGO disinformation, and

3) using the NATO-armed UAF as a proxy attack-dog barking at Russia’s gates.

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After a suitable weakening, the US/EU/UK/NATO would follow the Kiev playbook, using foreign-financed NGOs to create unrest in Russia, and then demonstrations to create chaos and regime change in Moscow, with Navalny to replace Putin. After that, it would be China's turn in the barrel.

That Washington bucket list item did not come to pass. 

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As an historical reminder, the CIA, foreign-financed NGOs, etc., planned a Moscow Coup d'Etat/Color Revolution in 2000.
However, Yeltsin, who was in very bad health, suddenly resigned as President in December 1999, and appointed Vice President Putin as Acting President. Putin was elected President in March 2000.

These developments were not anticipated by the CIA and the Color Revolution needed to be postponed.

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As an historical reminder, the UAF bombarded and killed and maimed and injured tens of thousands of people in the eastern provinces of Ukraine from 2014 to 2022, because these provinces are populated with Russian-speaking people, already for about 400 years, who did not want to be ruled by the western-installed, neo-Nazi/nationalist, Russia-hating, clique in Kiev.

Madman Zelensky, whose presidential term has expired, wishes the UAF had nuclear bombs! See article

Russia ‘liberates largest settlement in southwest Donbass’ – MOD

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/russia-liberates-large...

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The US sent a lot of weapons, including Javelins, Stingers, etc., to Kiev "to defend itself" in September and December of 2021, as admitted by Blinken in January 2025

https://tass.com/world/1896301

Russia aimed to put an end to the UAF killing, etc., starting in February 2022.

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The UAF is in bad shape.

The Russians are taking more land in Ukraine each day

Nobody can say Russia is in a weak position, and that Putin is in a weak position when he bargains with Trump.

If Trump were to offer to terminate the US’ bilateral security agreement with Ukraine as part of a package deal that includes and guarantees Russia's core security requirements, then Russia might accept it, and abide by it, as long as the west abides by it.