Texas Power Prices Surge 6,000% as Grid Operator Asks Residents to Reduce Energy Usage Due to ‘Low Wind Generation’
by Cristina Laila
Aug. 19, 2023 4:40 pm
Earlier this week Texas grid operator ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) asked residents to reduce energy usage amid a sweltering heat wave to avoid rolling blackouts.
ERCOT manages electric power to more than 26 million Texas customers and represents 90% of the state’s electric load, according to the company.
Temperatures soared to 115+ degrees with the heat index in parts of Texas on Thursday amid an excessive heat warning.
ERCOT issued the voluntary conservation notice due to extreme temperatures, forecasted high demand and lower reserves due to low wind generation.
The wind turbines aren’t producing enough energy.
Continue reading at the following weblink:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/08/texas-power-prices-surge-6...
European Leaders Begin to Put Brakes on Green Energy Transition
https://legalinsurrection.com/2023/08/european-leaders-begin-to-put...
Views: 73
Comment
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Comment by Thinklike A. Mountain on August 21, 2023 at 11:55am
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EXCLUSIVE: FBI Is Preventing the Release of FOIA Requests Related to Seth Rich – Again!
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/08/exclusive-fbi-is-preventin...
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Comment by Willem Post on August 20, 2023 at 6:02pm
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Unreliables Renewables only generate electricity, but manufacture nothing for society.
What is the plan to identify the replacement for the oil derivatives that are the basis of more than 6,000 products and all the fuels for the merchant ships, aircraft, militaries, and space programs that support the 8 billion on this planet?
The video has already been viewed by more than 800,000!
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/stf2YrznkZU
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BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...Excerpt
Turnkey Capital Cost of Megapack-based Battery Systems
Tesla is the world’s largest provider of lithium-ion battery systems, that include front-end power electronics, batteries, back-end power electronics, heating and cooling systems for batteries and enclosures
Megapack pricing varies due to market conditions
The 2021 pricing for a 10 Megapack, 4h, with installation, was about $10 million, or $328/kWh
The 2022 pricing for a 10 Megapack, 4h, with installation, was about $16 million, or $412/kWh
The 2023 pricing for a 10 Megapack, 4h, with installation, was about $19.1 million, or $487/kWhTesla Megapacks had a 487/328 = 48.5% increase
Connecting the Megapacks into a system incurs losses, which are covered by the “Tesla design factor”
After applying the factor, the above $/kWh is increased! See URLs and below examples.https://electrek.co/2022/03/21/tesla-hikes-megapack-prices-backlog-...
https://www.tesla.com/megapack/design1) Example of Turnkey Cost of Large-Scale, Megapack-Based, Battery System, based on 2022 pricing
PG&E, a California utility, put in operation, at Moss Landing
The PG&E system consists of 256 Megapacks, rated capacity 182.5 MW/730 MWh, 4-h energy delivery.
Power = 256 Megapacks x 0.770 MW x 0.926, Tesla design factor = 182.5 MW
Energy = 256 Megapacks x 3.070 MWh x 0.929, Tesla design factor = 730 MWh
We assume $1.25 million/Megapack, because of large number of unitsEstimated supply by Tesla is 256 Megapacks x $1.25 million = $320 million, or $438/kWh
Estimated supply by others is $62/kWh
All-in, turnkey cost about $500/kWh; 2022 pricingNOTE: The primary purpose of this battery system is to absorb midday solar output bulges, and deliver about 80% of it to during late afternoon/early evening.
Any costs associated with battery systems are charged to ratepayers, taxpayers and added to government debt, i.e., not charged to Owners of solar and battery systems, the grid disturbers.
https://www.10news.com/news/national/pg-es-tesla-megapack-battery-i...
2) Example of Turnkey Cost of Large-Scale, Megapack-Based, Battery System, based on 2023 pricingThe system consists of 50 Megapack 2, rated capacity 45.3 MW/181.9 MWh, 4-h energy delivery
Power = 50 Megapacks x 0.979 MW x 0.926, Tesla design factor = 45.3 MW
Energy = 50 Megapacks x 3.916 MWh x 0.929, Tesla design factor = 181.9 MWhEstimate of supply by Tesla is $90 million, or $495/kWh. See URL
Estimate of supply by Others is $14.5 million, or $80/kWh
All-in, turnkey cost about $575/kWh; 2023 pricinghttps://www.tesla.com/megapack/design
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https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/tesla-hikes-megapack-prices-c...NOTE 1: Assume a 4-h battery system rated at 45.3 MW/181.9 MWh, and an all-in turnkey cost of $104.5 million
Amortizing a bank loan for 50% of $104.5 million at 6%/y for 15 years will cost $5.291 million/y
Paying the Owner for his investment of 50% of $104.5 million at 9%/y for 15 years will cost $6.359 million/y (9% because of high inflation)
Lifetime actual cost 15 x (5.291 + 6.359) = $174.75 millionAssume daily charging/discharging at a lifetime throughput of 10%, at a 20% loss, or 15 y x 365 d/y x 181.9 MWh x 0.1, throughput = 99,590,250 kWh to HV grid; 124,487,813 kWh from HV grid; 24,897,563 kWh, loss.
Total to Bank and Owner is $174.75 million / 99,590,250 kWh = 175.5 c/kWh
Throughput loss is 1.5 c/kWh
Total cost is 177 c/kWh
Less subsidies at 50% is 88.5 c/kWh
Announced cost is 88.5 c/kWh
At a highly unlikely 50% throughput, announced cost would be 20.5 c/kWhAt 50% throughput, you are close to Tesla’s recommend of not charging in excess of 80% and not discharging to less than 20%, which, in fact, was not heeded by Hornsdale owners eager to make a buck.
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-hornsdale-power-res...Not included: 1) O&M; 2) roundtrip losses, about 20%; 3) system aging, 4) plus, in year 15, decommissioning, i.e., disassembly, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites.
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US/UK 56,000 MW OF OFFSHORE WIND BY 2030; AN EXPENSIVE FANTASY
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biden-30-000-mw-of-off...
EXCERPTThe US government, not the US people, has the insane fantasy of wanting to build 30,000 MW of offshore by 2030, i.e., just 7 years, but several companies, building projects for Massachusetts, will be allowed to walk away from the signed PPAs, and rebid at much higher prices next year.
The UK government, not the UK people, has the insane fantasy of wanting to build 26,000 MW of offshore by 2030, i.e., in just 7 years, but Vattenfall, a Swedish company, is putting 4,200 MW on hold, because Vattenfall spreadsheets show a “net revenue shortage” of about 40%, meaning the prices, c/kWh, offered by the UK auctions are about 40% too low.
BTW, about 7,000 MW offshore was accepted after the 4th Auction bids in 2022; at least 4,200 MW are on hold.
The continent-based European big wind companies have only one third of the capacity per year for building 56,000 MW offshore by 2030, or 8,000 MW/y.
These companies will concentrate on the U.S. market, because the Biden “Inflation-Reduction-Act” subsidies are about 50% higher than in the UK
NOTE: “The expense associated with a typical US offshore project, before bonus tax credits related to the Inflation Reduction Act, has increased by 57% since 2021,” Bloomberg recently reported, citing figures from Bloomberg-NEF, “Inflation of materials, energy, components, and labor costs explain about 40% of that, with 60% due to increased interest rates.”
NOTE: The EU, the UK and the Fed central banks just increased interest rates, which will make everything more expensive.
NOTE: Assume an offshore project consists of wind turbines and cabling to shore at $4,000/kW.
Amortizing a bank loan for 50% of the project at 6%/y for 20 years will cost about 4.36 c/kWh.
Paying the Owner for his investment of 50% of the project at 9%/y for 20 years will cost about 4.74 c/kWh (9% because of high inflation).
Offshore O&M, about 30 miles out to sea, is at least 6.5 c/kWh.
Total energy cost 4.36 + 4.74 + 6.5 = 16.33 c/kWhAfter subsidies, and accelerated depreciation, and deduction of interest on borrowed money, etc., the ANNOUNCED wholesale energy cost is at least 8.17 c/kWh (what a bargain!)
Not included are the following:
The levelized cost of any onshore grid expansion/augmentation, about 2 c/kWh
The levelized cost of a fleet of quick-reacting power plants to counteract/balance the ups and downs of wind output, 24/7/365, about 2 c/kWh
The levelized cost of decommissioning, i.e., disassembly at sea, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sitesFloating offshore, as in Maine and California offshore, would be about $6,000 to $7,000 per MW, i.e., the bank loan and Owner return parts of the levelized cost would be correspondingly higher.
The levelized O&M likely would be higher as well
The various subsidies, added to national debts, to make it all politically sellable, would be higher as well
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Comment by Dan McKay on August 20, 2023 at 4:54pm
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Willem,
The price offer from King Pine is apparently a secret, known by King Pine and the PUC only. Interesting, the contract terms involve the ratepayers, who will underwrite the terms, but the ratepayers have no access to this information, and don't bother asking the PUC, you only get the runaround like I did.
This project is destined for rejection, as the public has been totally kept from knowing anything and there is a lot of unhappy people.
See Case # 2021-00369 at the PUC website and click on comments
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What is the price at which King Pine Wind electricity will be bought by Maine? c/kWh
will that remain constant for 20 years, or escalating at 2 to 4 percent per year?
how much forest has to be cleared?
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This is Maine with King Pine Wind doubling wind generation to the extent the nameplate capacity of all Maine Wind will nearly be Maine's peak demand. Go down the road to renewables and Texas problems will be Maine's problems
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From a normal $75/MWh to $4750/ MWh, wholesale, because during warm weather, winds usually are minimal
Texas relying on unreliable wind is a woke folly
China, India, Russia, etc., are laughing all the way to the bank
They do not have such problems, because they rely on fossil fuels to make electricity
Maine as Third World Country:
CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power
Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.
Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT
******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********
(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/
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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law
Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future
"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."
https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/
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