Not one more wind or solar project for Maine.
Energy Emergency Alert! ERCOT’s Close Call of September 6
By Bill Peacock -- September 13, 2023
“, Governor Greg Abbot should declare an energy emergency and call the Texas Legislature into special session and keep them there until they eliminate all Texas subsidies for renewable energy and force renewable generators to pay for the costs they have imposed on Texas consumers.”
Energy Emergency Alert! ERCOT's Close Call of September 6 (Part 2) ...
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Comment by Willem Post on September 17, 2023 at 12:15pm
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US/UK 66,000 MW OF OFFSHORE WIND BY 2030; AN EXPENSIVE FANTASY
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biden-30-000-mw-of-off...
The US government has the insane fantasy of wanting to build 30,000 MW of offshore by 2030, i.e., just 7 years, but several companies, building projects for Massachusetts, will be allowed to walk away from the signed PPAs, and rebid at much higher prices next year.
The UK government has the insane fantasy of wanting to build 36,000 MW of offshore by 2030, i.e., in just 7 years,
The continent-based European big wind companies have only 25% of the capacity per year for building 66,000 MW offshore by 2030, or about 9,500 MW/y. These companies will concentrate on the U.S. market, because Biden’s "Inflation-Reduction-Act” subsidies are much higher than in the UK
About 7,000 MW of offshore wind bids were rewarded by the UK 4th Auction, in 2022
Zero MW of offshore wind bids were submitted for the UK 5th Auction, in 2023
1) Vattenfall, Sweden, has put on hold 1,400 MW in 2023 (will re-evaluate its entire 4,200 MW zone), because its spreadsheets show a “net revenue shortage” of about 40%, meaning the prices, c/kWh, offered by the UK auctions are about 40% too low.
https://www.offshorewind.biz/2023/07/20/breaking-vattenfall-stops-d....
2) OERSTED, Denmark, sees a $2.6 billion loss on its three US East Cost offshore wind systems, mainly due to high inflation, high interest rates, supply chain constrains and disruptions, and not being awarded “bonus” federal and state tax credits. Oersted, etc., urges Biden to ignore the domestic content requirements of the Inflation Reduction Act, so 100% of the wind turbines will be very expensively built in Europe, with US subsidies.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/denmarks-orsted-anticipates...
3) EU big wind conglomerates want, on average, 40% more, because turnkey capital costs (foundations, turbines, cabling to shore, installation) have gone to at least $5,500/installed kW and interest rates to 6.25% in 2023, from $3,500/kW and 3% in 2021
UK and New York State bureaucrats are grossly uninformed regarding market conditions, as usual. They have zero business sense. New York State bureaucrats calculated their estimates of offshore wind contract prices, but when the owners saw those numbers, they said, we need up to 66% more, for our spreadsheets to make business sense. These contract prices are after 50% US subsidies. See Item 4 and note
Oersted, Denmark, Sunrise wind, original price $110.37/MWh, needs $139.99/MWh, a 27% increase
Equinor, Norway, Empire 1 wind, original price $118.38/MWh, needs $159.64/MWh, a 35% increase
Equinor, Norway, Empire 2 wind, original price $107.50/MWh, needs $177.84/MWh, a 66% increase
Equinor, Norway, Beacon Wind, original price $118.00/MWh, needs $190.82/MWh, a 62% increase
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/liars-lies-exposed-as-...
4)
Lifetime Performance of World’s First Offshore Wind Farm
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/lifetime-performance-o...
IRENA prepares glossy offshore wind reports, that 1) ignore industry cost data of offshore wind systems in the UK, 2) overestimates capacity factors, 3) underestimates decreases in output with aging, 4) underestimates O&M/MWh
IRENA is a government-controlled, offshore wind rah-rah site, that cannot be trusted
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/irena-a-european-renew...
NOTE: “The all-in, turnkey capital cost associated with a typical US offshore project, before bonus tax credits related to the "Inflation-Reduction-Act", has increased by 57% since 2021.
Increased costs of materials, energy, components, labor, and supply chain disruptions and constraints (shortage of European-owned specialized ships) explain about 40% of that, with 60% due to increased interest rates.”, per Bloomberg recently reported, citing figures from Bloomberg-NEF
Increased financing costs are due to larger amounts borrowed/installed kW, at higher interest rates
In 2021, borrowing $3500/installed kW at 3% for 20 years would cost 3.322 c/kWh
In 2023, borrowing $5500/installed kW at 6.25% for 20 years would cost 6.879 c/kWh
Part 1
BIDEN 30,000 MW OF OFFSHORE WIND BY 2030; AN EXPENSIVE FANTASY
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biden-30-000-mw-of-off...
The Biden administration announced on October 13, 2021, it will subsidize the development of up to seven offshore wind systems (never call them farms) on the US East and West coasts, and in the Gulf of Mexico; a total of about 30,000 MW of offshore wind by 2030.
This is part of the “Inflation Reduction Act”, which CBO estimated at $391 billion, but Goldman Sachs estimated at $1.2 trillion, due to Biden’s handlers “liberally interpreting” the various open-ended measures.
This deficit spending will be added to the national debt, which would increase inflation. See URL for explanation.
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biden-s-green-energy-p...
Biden's offshore wind systems would have an adverse, long-term impact on US electricity wholesale prices, and the prices of all other goods and services, because their expensive electricity would permeate into all economic activities.
The wind turbines would be at least 800-ft-tall, which would need to be located at least 30 miles from shores, to ensure minimal disturbance from night-time strobe lights.
Any commercial fishing areas would be significantly impacted by below-water infrastructures and cables. The low-frequency noise (less than 20 cycles per second, aka infrasound) of the wind turbines would adversely affect marine life, including whales, and productivity of fishing areas.
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/feds-finally-admits-of...
Offshore Wind Electricity Production and Cost
Electricity production would be about 30,000 MW x 8766 h/y x 0.40, lifetime-average capacity factor = 105,192,000 MWh, or 105.2 TWh
The additional wind production would be about 100 x 105.2/4000 = 2.63% of the annual electricity loaded onto US grids.
The US grid load would increase, due to tens of millions of future electric vehicles and heat pumps.
Electricity Cost: Assume an offshore project consists of wind turbines and cabling to shore, and installation at $5,500/kW
- Amortizing bank loan for 50% of the project at 6.25%/y for 20 years, 6.879 c/kWh.
- Paying Owner investment of 50% of the project at 9%/y for 20 years, is 8.468 c/kWh (9% because of high inflation).
- Offshore O&M, about 30 miles out to sea, 8 c/kWh.
- All other items, 4 c/kWh
- Total cost 6.879 + 8.468 + 8 + 4 = 27.347 c/kWh
- Less 50% subsidies (tax credits, depreciation in 5 years, interest deduction on borrowed funds) 13.673 c/kWh
- Owner sells to utility at 13.673 c/kWh
Not included:
- Levelized cost of onshore grid expansion/augmentation, about 2 c/kWh
- Levelized cost of curtailment/counteracting/balancing, 24/7/365, about 2 c/kWh
- Levelized cost of decommissioning, i.e., disassembly at sea, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites
Floating offshore wind, as in Maine and California offshore, would be about $7,500 per MW. Payments for Amortizing bank loan, Owner return, O&M, and All other items would be higher, and the c/kWh would be higher than offshore wind with foundations.
The subsidies, added to national debt, would be higher.
- Amortizing bank loan for 50% of the project at 6.25%/y for 20 years, 9.380 c/kWh.
- Paying Owner investment of 50% of the project at 9%/y for 20 years, is 11.547 c/kWh (9% because of high inflation).
- Offshore O&M, about 30 miles out to sea, 8 c/kWh.
- All other items, 4 c/kWh
- Total cost 6.879 + 8.468 + 8 + 4 = 32.927 c/kWh
- Less 50% subsidies (tax credits, depreciation in 5 years, interest deduction on borrowed funds) 16.464 c/kWh
- Owner sells to utility at 16.464 c/kWh
NOTE: If li-ion battery systems were contemplated, they would add 20 to 40 c/kWh to the cost of any electricity passing through them, during their about 15-y useful service lives! See Part 1 of URL
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...
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Comment by Dan McKay on September 15, 2023 at 12:38pm
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Willem,
A couple of observations made by "Power Advisory LLC" concerning RECs, which each New England state uses to determine that licensed retail electricity suppliers have acquired the "compliance quantity" as required in their Renewable Portfolio Standards, should concern Maine people who are very aware that the geographically smaller but much more population dense New England states of Mass. and Conn. will need more RECs to meet their RPS compliance requirements and offshore wind is headed for a nosedive. This makes Maine the target for more land-based wind and solar projects.
From : RECs and SRECs Still Playing an Important Role in East Coast Renewa...
"While some utility scale onshore wind and solar projects are under development, under construction or anticipated to be contracted under future RFPs, offshore wind is the key resource type that will drive REC prices given their scale and the multi-GW emphasis that New England states have placed on them. Massachusetts alone is targeting 5,600 MW of offshore wind by 2035,"
and:
"The 2021 Class 1 RECs for MA, NH and RI are currently trading at about $44 while CT is trading $5 lower at $39 (Figure 1). This is a clearly undersupplied market with the CT Class 1 RECs trading at $96.7% of its ACP value of $40 and MA Class 1 RECs trading at about 70% of its ACP value of $60. Note that the Massachusetts ACP is scheduled to drop to $50 in 2022 and $40 in 2023, so the pricing is expected to be under $40 for that market by 2023.
Consider nearly 80% of Maine sited wind projects generate RECs sold to Mass. and Conn. entities. and the Maine PUC reports " Based on data from NEPOOL-GIS Regulator Reports, 64% of the NEW (since 1/1/2019) solar generation physically located in Maine that registered with NEPOOL GIS only registered their RECs for sale outside the State of Maine"
The pressure on Maine, the New England State of largest land mass will be incredible.
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Dan,
you have to look at wind and solar total percent on NE grid, regarding counteracting/balancing required to offset the variations of wind and solar
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Texas has good wind and solar conditions compared to New England, which has one of the poorest solar, except for Washington State and poorest wind ,except for the US South.
It is beyond ridiculous to invest in solar in Maine where potatoes, etc., can be grown.
Maine has poor wind conditions
Every legislators and bureaucrat knows this, the wind industry knows this, so why are Mainers not informed of this idiocy?
Floating offshore wind, as in Maine and California offshore, would be about $7,500 per MW. Payments for Amortizing bank loan, Owner return, O&M, and All other items would be higher, and the c/kWh would be higher than offshore wind with foundations.
The various subsidies, added to national debt, would be higher.
- Amortizing bank loan for 50% of the project at 6.25%/y for 20 years, 9.380 c/kWh.
- Paying Owner investment of 50% of the project at 9%/y for 20 years, is 11.547 c/kWh (9% because of high inflation).
- Offshore O&M, about 30 miles out to sea, 8 c/kWh.
- All other items, 4 c/kWh
- Total cost 6.879 + 8.468 + 8 + 4 = 32.927 c/kWh
- Less 50% subsidies (tax credits, depreciation in 5 years, interest deduction on borrowed funds) 16.464 c/kWh
- Owner sells to utility at 16.464 c/kWh
US/UK 56,000 MW OF OFFSHORE WIND BY 2030; AN EXPENSIVE FANTASY
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biden-30-000-mw-of-off...
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Texas consuming electricity that is 23% wind and solar nearly had a grid failure. Well Maine generation mix is presently 27.3% wind and only wind and an additional 1200 megawatts of King Pine Blow would mean Maine would surpass Texas by 30%. Can't let it happen!!
Maine as Third World Country:
CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power
Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.
Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT
******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********
(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/
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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law
Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future
"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."
https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/
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