EXCERPTS:
Dozens of ideas being promoted by lawmakers this year represent the next phase of state government's aggressive effort to address a rapidly changing climate.
"Overall, they would lead to a wholesale shift in the way power is used and generated, expanding renewable energy and electrifying the transportation and heating sectors, a process called beneficial electrification. It’s a transformation being pushed in other Northeast states, including Massachusetts and New York."
“The implied message is that we need to electrify everything,” said Rep. Seth Berry, D-Bowdoinham, co-chairman the committee dealing with energy issues. “Writ large, we need to switch to clean electricity for the bulk of our energy use.”
“The implied message is that we need to electrify everything,” said Rep. Seth Berry, D-Bowdoinham, co-chairman the committee dealing with energy issues. “Writ large, we need to switch to clean electricity for the bulk of our energy use.”
Republican opposition also may emerge around the 10 or so proposals to authorize general fund bonding for a host of climate-related ambitions, from weatherization and land acquisition to connecting Aroostook County – where developers want to build large biomass and wind projects – to New England’s electric grid.
Read the entire article here:
https://www.pressherald.com/2021/01/27/next-step-for-maines-climate...
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Comment
Penny,
A moral compass would be OK?
Penny, and how about a media that gives them the third degree? And someone to give same to the media.
How about another law requiring all elected government officials and regulators must have an engineering degree with secondary degrees in physics, economics and critical thinking?
How about a law forbidding all elected government officials & regulators and their family members from holding assets in offshore bank accounts?
CO2-EMISSION COMPARISON OF EVs AND GASOLINE VEHICLES; LIFETIME/A-to-Z BASIS
EV CO2 Reduction Compared to Efficient Gasoline Vehicles is Minimal
Any CO2 reduction analysis must be the difference of the CO2 emissions of an EV and an equivalent gasoline vehicle, on a lifetime/A-to-Z basis. Such evaluations of EVs versus gasoline vehicles have been performed for at least 25 years. All show EVs would reduce very little CO2 compared with efficient light-duty vehicles, LDVs, using gasoline or diesel.
As future electric grid CO2 emissions, g CO2/kWh, decrease more and more (a decades-long process), EVs would reduce CO2 emissions more and more, compared with LDVs, using gasoline and diesel.
https://www.iso-ne.com/about/key-stats/resource-mix/
Proper Analysis of CO2 Reductions of EVs
Engineers, including at Vermont Energy Action Network, EAN, very well know, a proper evaluation of EVs versus gasoline vehicles must be based on:
1) Lifetime/A-to-Z basis such as the 105,600 miles for 10 years used in this article. Usually, batteries are manufacturer-warranted for 8 years. Very few people would replace an old battery with an expensive, new battery in a 10-y-old car, i.e., the car likely would be scrapped. See Notes.
2) CO2 of source energy, 23.371 lb/gal of gasoline = CO2 of upstream energy, 5.759 lb/gal + CO2 of primary energy, 17.612 lb/gal; EAN ignored upstream
3) CO2 of NE grid, 304 g/kWh, per ISO-NE; EAN used an artificial/concocted 34 g CO2/kWh.
See URL
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-s-global-warmi...
4) Embodied CO2/kWh of the vehicle body and battery; EAN ignored embodied
5) Comparison of EVs with efficient gasoline vehicles; EAN used the VT LDV fleet average of 22.7 mpg.
However, purchasers of EVs usually replace higher mileage vehicles, not gas guzzlers.
6) Long-term wall meter and vehicle meter readings, obtained during real-world driving conditions.
NOTE: On-the-road data from privately owned EVs was analyzed: 158,468,000 miles from 21,600 EVs
EVs travel about 10,000 miles/y
See page 17 of URL
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/07/f24/vss171_carlson_...
NOTE: Gasoline vehicles travel about 11,467 miles/y
See image in URL
https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10309
EAN Overstating CO2 Reduction of EVs
EAN prepared a report listing the measures required to “meet Paris by 2025”, as mandated by the Global Warming “Solutions” Act, GWSA, and the VT Comprehensive Energy Plan. One measure is adding 90,000 EVs to reduce CO2 by 0.405 million metric ton/y, or 4.5 Mt/EV/y, based on the above EAN “parameters”.
However, the CO2 reduction would be much less, on a lifetime/A-to-Z basis, including 1) upstream and 2) embedded CO2, i.e., realistic parameters. See table 6 and 7.
EAN would need 4.5/3.035 (22.7 mpg) x 90,000 = 133,443 EVs, plus chargers, to reduce 0.405 MMT/y by 2025, based on EAN “parameters”.
EAN would need 4.5/1.705 (30 mpg) x 90,000 = 237,537 EVs, plus chargers, to reduce 0.405 MMt/y by 2025, based on realistic parameters.
Whether 90,000 or 237,537, such increases in EVs are a total fantasy, because, the capital cost would be at least $10.0 BILLION (EVs, chargers, grid upgrades), at $40,000/EV, which over-taxed, over-regulated Vermonters do not have.
https://www.eanvt.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/EAN-report-2020-fi...
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-s-global-warmi...
NOTE: The EAN “parameters” likely were aimed to deceive non-technical Legislators and non-technical Vermonters to obtain favorable RE-subsidy legislation, such as the Global Warming “Solutions” Act, GWSA.
- GWSA is designed to subsidize the RE companies of EAN members for decades, at everyone else’s expense.
The members of the GWSA Committee of 23 are the same or similar people, who presided of 20 years of government energy programs, costing about $2 billion, which had the net result of increasing Vermont’s CO2.
- Vermonters would be much better served with increased energy efficiency of buildings and vehicles.
See URLs for much more information.
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-s-global-warmi...
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-global-warming-sol...
Grid Upgrades, Peak-Smoothing, Load-Shifting, Storage
Vermont’s maximum grid load is about 1100 MW, and peak demand of users is about 900 MW, without significant quantities of heat pumps and EVs.
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/reality-check-regardin...
Major distribution and high-voltage grid upgrades, peak-smoothing and load-shifting and electricity storage systems (battery, etc.) would be required, if, in the future:
- Vermont’s 200,000-plus EVs would plug in, demanding 200,000 x 9 kW; see table 2 = 1,800 MW, most of them recharging for 2 - 4 hours, some of them up to 10 hours, for next day driving.
NOTE: Vermont total registered gas/diesel vehicles was 547,000 in 2019
https://vtrans.vermont.gov/sites/aot/files/planning/documents/plann...
- Vermont’s 200,000-plus heat pumps would be operating, demanding 200,000 x 2.8 kW = 560 MW, for many hours on cold days, to heat buildings. Each free-standing, 2000 sq ft, well-sealed/well-insulated house, would require 2 such heat pumps. See URL
https://www.thermospace.com/ductless_split/ymgi/inverter-16-seer-2-...
CO2 Emission Comparison of Five Vehicles; Lifetime/A-to-Z Basis
Base Vehicle:
The popular Nissan Leaf, 62 kWh, was used as base vehicle for comparison with four other vehicles
EPA rated at 118, city/97, highway/108, combined
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/bymake/Nissan2020.shtml
(33.7 kWh/gal-eq)/(108 mpg-eq) = 0.299 kWh/mile; includes charging loss
Adjusted to 0.299 x 1.06, loss factor* = 0.317 mile/kWh, which includes:
1) Charging loss,
2) Self-use losses due to heating, cooling, electronics, etc., and
3) Losses due to NE road/climate conditions,
4) Losses due to idle time, such as parked in a garage, or at an airport.
* The loss factor covers items 2, 3 and 4, which are not measured by EPA
Comparison Vehicles:
Toyota Prius L Eco hybrid, 56 mpg
Mitsubishi Mirage gasoline vehicle, 39 mpg
Medium gasoline SUV, 30 mpg
“Vermont LDV mix”, 22.7 mpg
Comments on table 6:
Table 6 shows a CO2 comparison of the 5 vehicles.
NOTE:
Most EV owners are higher-income eco-people. About 50% also own PV systems. They received subsidies for PV systems and EVs.
Most people who buy EVs, already drive high-mileage vehicles., i.e., greater than 30 mpg. They just want to look extra green.
Table 6/Mfr. |
Make |
Size |
Type |
MPG |
Mt CO2/y vs BASE |
Nissan; BASE |
Leaf |
Compact SUV |
EV |
0.000 |
|
Toyota |
Prius, L Eco |
Compact car |
Hybrid |
56.0 |
0.052 |
Mitsubishi |
Mirage |
Compact car |
Gasoline |
39.0 |
0.844 |
Subaru |
Outback |
Medium SUV |
Gasoline |
30.0 |
1.705 |
Any mfr. |
VT LDV mix |
Gasoline |
22.7 |
3.035 |
Comments on table 7:
Table 7 shows, a CO2 comparison of EVs versus efficient gasoline vehicles, on a lifetime/A-to-Z basis.
Table 7 shows, increasing the use of high-mileage vehicles, such as hybrids, and getting gas-guzzlers off the road (which need not involve any government subsidies), would reduce CO2 at much less cost per vehicle, than would the government-subsidized replacement of Vermont’s light duty vehicles with EVs.
Table 7/CO2; Lifetime/A-to-Z basis |
Nissan |
Toyota |
Mitsubishi |
Subaru |
Any mfr. |
Leaf S Plus |
Prius L Eco |
Mirage |
Outback |
||
Comp. SUV |
Comp. car |
Comp. car |
Med. SUV |
VT LDV mix |
|
Type |
EV |
Hybrid |
Gasoline |
Gasoline |
Gasoline |
Plug-in |
yes |
no |
no |
no |
no |
Battery, kWh |
62 |
0.75 |
no |
no |
no |
Travel, miles/10 years |
105600 |
105600 |
105600 |
105600 |
105600 |
EPA combined, WM basis, mpg |
56 |
39 |
30 |
22.7 |
|
EPA combined, wall meter basis, kWh/mile |
0.317 |
||||
NE grid CO2, wall meter basis, g/kWh |
304 |
||||
E10, combustion, CO2 of ethanol not counted, lb CO2/gal |
17.612 |
17.612 |
17.612 |
17.612 |
|
E10, upstream for extract, process, transport, lb CO2/gal |
5.759 |
5.759 |
5.759 |
5.759 |
|
E10, total, CO2 of ethanol not counted, lb CO2/gal |
23.371 |
23.371 |
23.371 |
23.371 |
|
. |
|||||
CO2 |
Mt |
Mt |
Mt |
Mt |
Mt |
E10, combustion, CO2 of ethanol not counted |
15.064 |
21.631 |
28.120 |
37.163 |
|
E10, upstream for extract, process, transport |
4.926 |
7.073 |
9.195 |
12.152 |
|
Electricity, wall meter basis, Mt/10 years |
10.167 |
||||
Body, with extract, process, fabrication, assembly, transport* |
5.700 |
5.700 |
5.700 |
5.700 |
7.000 |
Li battery, with extract, process, fabrication, assembly, transport* |
10.100 |
0.800 |
|||
Total CO2, Mt/10 years |
25.967 |
26.490 |
34.404 |
43.015 |
56.315 |
Mt/y |
Mt/y |
Mt/y |
Mt/y |
||
CO2 reduction vs Base, Mt/y |
0.052 |
0.844 |
1.705 |
3.035 |
* Numbers are partly based on Hall and Lutsey and on Hausfather at carbonbrief.org factcheck, adapted for Vermont conditions.
APPENDIX 1
POOR ECONOMICS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN NEW ENGLAND
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/poor-economics-of-elec...
REALITY CHECK REGARDING UTILITY-SCALE BATTERY SYSTEMS DURING A ONE-DAY WIND/SOLAR LULL
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/reality-check-regardin...
ECONOMICS OF UTILITY-SCALE BATTERY SYSTEMS FOR DUCK-CURVES
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/economics-of-utility-s...
THE VAGARIES OF SOLAR IN NEW ENGLAND
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-vagaries-of-solar-...
COST SHIFTING IS THE NAME OF THE GAME REGARDING WIND AND SOLAR
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cost-shifting-is-the-na...
BURNING WOOD IS NOT RENEWABLE BY A LONG SHOT
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/burning-wood-is-not-ren...
NEW ENGLAND IS THE LEAST FAVORABLE FOR PV SOLAR, except areas near rainy Seattle
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/new-england-is-the-leas...
WORLD AND US TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/world-total-energy-con...
VERMONT’S GLOBAL WARMING SOLUTIONS ACT, A DISASTER IN THE MAKING
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-s-global-warmi...
VERMONT IS GOING TO HELL IN A HANDBASKET REGARDING FOOLISH ENERGY SYSTEMS
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-is-going-to-hel...
THE GLOBAL WARMING SOLUTIONS ACT A DECADES-LONG BURDEN ON VERMONT
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-global-warming-sol...
VERMONT SOLAR MARKET PATHWAYS REPORT BASED ON OPTIMISTIC ASSUMPTIONS
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-solar-market-pa...
THE PROPER BASIS FOR CALCULATING CO2 OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-proper-basis-for-ca...
ELECTRIC VEHICLES COMPARED WITH GASOLINE VEHICLES
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/electric-vehicles-compa...
VERMONT CO2 REDUCTION OF ASHPs IS BASED ON MISREPRESENTATIONS
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-co2-reduction-o...
VERMONT CO2 REDUCTION OF EVs IS BASED ON MISREPRESENTATIONS
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-co2-reduction-o...
ENERGY ACTION NETWORK REPORT TO REDUCE CO2 IN VERMONT
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/response-to-energy-acti...
FORTRESS VERMONT, A MULTI-BILLION BOONDOGGLE FOISTED ONTO RATEPAYERS AND TAXPAYERS
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fortress-vermont-a-mult...
THE “HURSTI HACK” OF A DIEBOLD VOTING MACHINE
A Diebold voting machine was selected, at random, from many machines, by one election official. See video.
An electronic card, which had been altered by a computer programmer, was inserted into the machine. See Note.
Eight volunteer election officials filled in ballots 6 to 2 that the Diebold voting machine could not be hacked
After running the ballots through the machine, the recorded vote was displayed as 7 to 1, i.e., the Diebold machines can be hacked
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t75xvZ3osFg
A few of the officials were shocked, others were just quiet, and one, a woman, started to cry.
Obviously, she, as an experienced election official, had no idea such frauds could happen, and was deeply distraught to learn about it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t75xvZ3osFg
The above video of the 'Hursti Hack' is an excerpt from a feature-length, Emmy-nominated documentary. Please watch the entire documentary.
https://vimeo.com/ondemand/hackingdemocracy
This hack proved any America election can be stolen, by using just a few lines of computer code.
All this has been well-known by many US (and foreign) election officials for years, especially those in the six swing states, which miraculously were donated to Biden-in-the-basement, who did not even campaign.
NOTE: When an electronic card is inserted into a computer slot, the computer code becomes visible on the screen. A computer programmer scans the code and alters a few lines that relate to the counting aspect, saves the changes, and the electronic is altered ready for nefarious use.
NOTE: Pam Bondi demonstrates that the Hunter Biden and Joe Biden corruption concerns in Ukraine and elsewhere, are legitimate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPvMuzyVOig
NOTE: This article summarizes a biography of Biden. There is a lot of information on the internet, because he ran twice for US President.
He could not get “traction”, largely due to the US Media relentlessly digging up dirt.
The US Media favored Clinton in 2016, but Trump won.
HIDING THE HUNTER BIDEN EVIDENCE TO PROTECT JOE BIDEN
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/hiding-the-hunter-bide...
ELECTRIFYING EVERYTHING IS TOTALLY IDIOTIC
Here is an example for EVs and heat pumps
POOR ECONOMICS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN NEW ENGLAND
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/poor-economics-of-elec...
This article describes the efficiency of electric vehicles, EVs, and their charging loss, when charging at home and on-the-road, and the economics, when compared with efficient gasoline vehicles.
Any economic analysis must include the amortizing of the difference in capital cost of EVs and equivalent gasoline vehicles.
Any CO2 reduction analysis must be the difference of the CO2 emissions of an EV and an equivalent gasoline vehicle, on a lifetime, A-to-Z basis
This article shows, increasing the use of high-mileage vehicles, such as hybrids, and getting gas-guzzlers off the road (which need not involve any government subsidies), would reduce CO2 at much less cost per vehicle, than would the government-subsidized replacement of light duty vehicles with EVs.
The table show the total cost of owning and operating three vehicles.
The Kona is not nearly as versatile as the Subaru and the Tesla for New England conditions, especially in rural areas.
The difference in vehicle purchase cost was amortized at 3.5% for 10 years. Subsidies were omitted.
For CO2 see Appendix 2
EV cost/mile and CO2/mile |
Electricity cost |
Amortize cost difference |
Total cost |
CO2 |
CO2 |
|
c/mile |
c/mile |
c/mile |
Mt/y |
g/mile |
Kona, no AWD |
|
|
|
2.529 |
239 |
Cost, on-the-road charging |
8.39 |
12.3 |
20.69 |
|
|
Cost, at-home charging |
5.98 |
12.3 |
18.28 |
|
|
Model Y, AWD |
|
|
|
3.024 |
286 |
Cost, on-the-road charging |
9.37 |
26.1 |
35.47 |
|
|
Cost, at-home charging |
7.04 |
26.1 |
33.14 |
|
|
Subaru, Outback, AWD |
|
|
|
4.302 |
407 |
Gasoline vehicle; 30 mpg |
7.33 |
0 |
7.33 |
|
|
Heat Pumps in my Vermont House are Money Losers: My annual electricity consumption increased about 50%, after I installed three 24,000 Btu/h heat pumps for heating and cooling my, well-sealed/well-insulated house. They displaced a fraction of my propane consumption.
My existing propane system, 95%-efficient in condensing mode, is used on cold days, 10 F or less, because heat pumps would have low efficiencies, i.e., low Btu/kWh.
There were no energy cost savings, because of high household electric rates, augmented with taxes, fees and surcharges.
Amortizing the $24,000 capital cost at 3.5%/y for 15 years would be $2,059/y.
There likely will be service calls and parts, as the years go by, in addition to service calls and parts for the existing propane system.
I received a 10% subsidy.
https://www.myamortizationchart.com
Government Electric Vehicle and Heat Pump Mandates
Subsidies do not just disappear. They would be charged to others, and/or would be added to government debts.
Celebrating energy cost savings, and ignoring amortizing costs, and having minimal CO2 reduction (see section after Example 3), is like living a fantasy.
Governments mandating hundreds of $billions be spent on such poor investments, as part of climate-change fighting,
meeting Paris”, etc., would impoverish the US people, and make the US less competitive on world markets. See URLs.
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-co2-reduction-o...
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-co2-reduction-o...
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/world-total-energy-con...
U.S. Sen Angus King
Maine as Third World Country:
CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power
Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.
Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT
******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********
(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/
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We have the facts on our side. We have the truth on our side. All we need now is YOU.
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-- Mahatma Gandhi
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Vince Lombardi
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Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future
"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."
https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/
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