Natural Gas to the Rescue… Again

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/natural-gas-to-the-res...

By David Middleton

PJM interconnection electricity demand

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hourly Electric Grid Monitor
Note: EDT=Eastern Daylight Time


Electricity demand in the PJM Interconnection and ISO New England (two regional grid operators covering the Northeast United States) reached multiyear highs on June 23 and June 24, respectively.

Electricity demand increased significantly due to a heat wave that affected most of the Eastern United States this week.

PJM Interconnection
Electricity load in the PJM Interconnection, the largest wholesale electricity market in the country, peaked at 160,560 megawatts (MW) on Monday, June 23, between 5:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. according to data from our Hourly Electric Grid Monitor.

The load on the grid surpassed PJM’s seasonal peak load forecast of 154,000 MW but remained below the record load of 165,563 MW in 2006 (PJM has expanded numerous times, and this data point is based on PJM’s current footprint).

PJM’s footprint includes 13 states and the District of Columbia.

Real-time wholesale electricity prices on June 23 peaked at $1,334 per megawatthour (MWh) at 7:00 p.m. according to PJM, compared with peak prices of $52/MWh on June 16.

At peak load on June 23, 44% of PJM’s generation came from natural gas, 20% from nuclear, 19% from coal, and 6% from solar.

The remaining generation came from a mix of hydro, wind, petroleum, and other generation.

Petroleum generation, which is generally the most expensive form and therefore only used to meet large demand loads, was three times greater compared with the same hour the day prior.

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ISO-New England (ISO-NE)

ISO-NE electricity demand

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hourly Electric Grid Monitor
Note: EDT=Eastern Daylight Time


As the hot weather moved eastward, demand peaked the following day in ISO-NE—the integrated grid operating in Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut.

Peak demand on Tuesday, June 24, between the hours of 6:00 p.m. and 7:00 p.m. eastern time was 25,898 MW, according to the data in our Hourly Electric Grid MonitorISO-NE reported that Tuesday’s evening peak electricity demand was the highest level seen in the region since 2013.

Real-time wholesale electricity prices on June 24 peaked at $1,110/MWh at 6:00 p.m. according to preliminary data from ISO-NE, compared with peak prices of $65/MWh the previous week on June 17.

New England’s electricity grid depended on a combination of oil-fired power plants, electricity imports from Canada, and increased natural gas power production to meet peak demand this week.

At peak load on Tuesday, 47% of ISO-NE generation came from natural gas, 12% from imports, 13% from nuclear, 12% from petroleum, 1% from coal, and 4% from renewable sources including wind, batteries, and solar.

The last remaining coal-fired plant in the region, the Merrimack facility in New Hampshire, supplied 280 MWh on average to the grid on Tuesday.

The Merrimack facility is typically only used when demand is high.

Principal contributors: Lindsay Aramayo, Kimberly Peterson

Tags: electricityconsumption/demandweather

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The PJM and ISO-NE balancing authorities cover almost all of the northeast United States, with the exception of New York.

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While Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia are fossil-fuel “friendly” states, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Vermont are extremely hostile to fossil fuels.

So, it’s always ironic to look at the electricity generation mix in these regions during periods of extremely hot and cold weather.

At peak load on June 23, 44% of PJM’s generation came from natural gas, 20% from nuclear, 19% from coal, and 6% from solar.

The remaining generation came from a mix of hydro, wind, petroleum, and other generation.

Petroleum generation, which is generally the most expensive form and therefore only used to meet large demand loads, was three times greater compared with the same hour the day prior.

At peak load on Tuesday, 47% of ISO-NE generation came from natural gas, 12% from imports, 13% from nuclear, 12% from petroleum, 1% from coal, and 4% from renewable sources including wind, batteries, and solar.

The last remaining coal-fired plant in the region, the Merrimack facility in New Hampshire, supplied 280 MWh on average to the grid on Tuesday.

The Merrimack facility is typically only used when demand is high.

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Anyone else notice a pattern here?

When demand ramps up, natural gas ramps up to meet the demand.

When demand “really” ramps up, New England fires up its only coal-fired power plant and both regions fire up their petroleum-fired power plants.

Neither ISO-NE not PJM ramp up renewables to meet demand.

I wonder how New York managed to deal with the heat wave…

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“The answer is [NOT} blowin’ in the wind”…

Electricity

Natural gas generated twice as much electricity in New York in 2023 as any other fuel source.

In 2023, natural gas-fired power plants accounted for almost three-fifths of New York’s generating capacity and provided 46% of the state’s electricity net generation, generating twice as much electricity as any other fuel source.25,26 

Natural gas fuels 6 of the state’s 10 largest power plants by capacity and 5 of the 10 largest by annual generation.27 

To increase reliability, especially during the winter months when natural gas pipelines are highly congested, natural gas-fired electricity generating units with dual-fuel capability can switch fuels in the event of a natural gas supply disruption.28 

In 2023, about two-thirds of the state’s natural gas-fired capacity had dual-fuel capability, allowing them to also burn petroleum products.29,30

EIA

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Since New York has very little natural gas production, due to its idiotic ban on hydraulic fracturing (frac’ing), it must import almost all of that natural gas.

Natural gas

New York has few natural gas reserves, but it does have some natural gas production.100,101 The state’s first commercial natural gas well was drilled in 1821.102 

Annual production reached a record high of nearly 56 billion cubic feet in 2006, but has declined almost every year since then. .

In 2023, New York produced 8.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas, the lowest output since 1975.103 Most of the natural gas consumed in New York is produced in other states.

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The largest share comes through and from Pennsylvania.104 The Marcellus Shale, named for a town in central New York where the shale is visible at the surface, is a natural gas-bearing formation that extends under parts of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, and Maryland.105 

It is the largest natural gas area in the United States as ranked by estimated proved reserves.106,107 

Much of the Marcellus Shale gas is produced by hydraulic fracturing, commonly called fracking, a drilling technique used to produce natural gas from low permeability shales like the Marcellus.

In 2014, New York’s governor banned hydraulic fracturing, and in 2020 the state legislature made the fracking ban permanent.

The legislature expanded the fracking ban in 2024 by prohibiting the use of carbon dioxide as a drilling agent to extract crude oil and natural gas from shale rock.108,109,110

EIA

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New York banned frac’ing, yet derives most of its energy from natural gas… Produced from frac’ed wells in Pennsylvania… From the most prolific natural gas reservoir in the United States… A reservoir that underlies New York state and was named after a town in New York state. As Ron White said:

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You not only can’t fix stupid… You can’t even prevent it from getting stupider…

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Empire Wind Construction Resumes on a Deal to Allow New Gas Pipelines in New York

IER

June 9, 2025

New York Governor Kathy Hochul has been in discussions with President Trump to advance two natural gas pipelines alongside the resumption of construction on Empire Wind 1.

While Hochul says there was no deal to do so, she indicated that she will approve the gas pipelines only if they meet federal and state requirements. 

[…]

Empire Wind 1 has a design capacity of 810 megawatts and is expected to begin commercial operations in 2027.

Offshore wind, however, is a costly technology for generating electricity, and projects have been troubled by much higher costs than alternatives.

Empire Wind sought renegotiation of its contracts, settling for a fee of $150.15 per megawatt-hour, which is about three times the price of natural gas-fired generation.

President Trump believes that natural gas prices are too high for New Yorkers and New Englanders and wants to provide relief by increasing the availability of supplies through pipeline construction.

He wants to revive a canceled pipeline that would carry natural gas from Pennsylvania’s shale gas fields to New York, indicating that it could cut energy prices in the Northeast by as much as 70%. 

The 124-mile Constitution Pipeline project was abandoned due to legal and regulatory challenges that made it economically unfeasible.

The Constitution Pipeline was proposed in 2013 at a projected cost of under $700 million, but delays and legal challenges drove up the costs by nearly 40%.

After the project received Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approval in 2014, New York regulators refused to issue water quality permits, citing concerns about danger to wetlands and stream crossings.

New York and other Northeast states have special water-quality certification powers granted to them under federal law to impede planned gas projects in the region.

New York State lawmakers have also passed anti-gas laws and banned fracking in the state, despite enormous natural gas resources, which are an extension of the Marcellus fields in Pennsylvania.

The Constitution Pipeline project was scrapped in 2020. On May 29, however, Williams Cos. announced that it is giving the Constitution pipeline and Northeast Supply Enhancement projects another try. The two projects have investments totaling about $2 billion.

[…]

IER

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Hochul might not block the construction of natural gas pipelines that could lower the cost of electricity for New Yorkers, in exchange for Equinor being allowed to resume construction of an offshore windmill system that will deliver electricity to New York City at triple the cost of natural gas-fired generation.

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Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

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(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

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