Longtime Wind Supporter Becky Bartovics Not Happy About Wind Industry Plans for Island Near Her Backyard

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Comment by Willem Post on August 17, 2023 at 5:33pm

US/UK 56,000 MW OF OFFSHORE WIND BY 2030; AN EXPENSIVE FANTASY  

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biden-30-000-mw-of-off...

 

The US government, not the US people, has the insane fantasy of wanting to build 30,000 MW of offshore by 2030, i.e., just 7 years, but several companies, building projects for Massachusetts, will be allowed to walk away from the signed PPAs, and rebid at much higher prices next year.

 

The UK government, not the UK people, has the insane fantasy of wanting to build 26,000 MW of offshore by 2030, i.e., in just 7 years, but Vattenfall, a Swedish company, is putting 4,200 MW on hold, because Vattenfall spreadsheets show a “net revenue shortage” of about 40%, meaning the prices, c/kWh, offered by the UK auctions are about 40% too low. 

 

BTW, about 7,000 MW offshore was accepted after the 4^th Auction bids in 2022; at least 4,200 MW are on hold.

 

The continent-based European big wind companies have only one third of the capacity per year for building 56,000 MW offshore by 2030, or 8,000 MW/y. 

 

These companies will concentrate on the U.S. market, because the Biden “Inflation-Reduction-Act” subsidies are about 50% higher than in the UK

 

NOTE: “The expense associated with a typical US offshore project, before bonus tax credits related to the Inflation Reduction Act, has increased by 57% since 2021,” Bloomberg recently reported, citing figures from Bloomberg-NEF, “Inflation of materials, energy, components, and labor costs explain about 40% of that, with 60% due to increased interest rates.”

 

NOTE: The EU, the UK and the Fed central banks just increased interest rates, which will make everything more expensive. 

 

NOTE: Assume an offshore project consists of wind turbines and cabling to shore at $4,000/kW.

Amortizing a bank loan for 50% of the project at 6%/y for 20 years will cost about 4.36 c/kWh.

Paying the Owner for his investment of 50% of the project at 9%/y for 20 years will cost about 4.74 c/kWh (9% because of high inflation).

Offshore O&M, about 30 miles out to sea, is at least 6.5 c/kWh.

Total energy cost 4.36 + 4.74 + 6.5 = 16.33 c/kWh

 

After subsidies, and accelerated depreciation, and deduction of interest on borrowed money, etc., the ANNOUNCED wholesale energy cost is at least 8.17 c/kWh (what a bargain!)

 

Not included are the following:

 

The levelized cost of any onshore grid expansion/augmentation, about 2 c/kWh

The levelized cost of a fleet of quick-reacting power plants to counteract/balance the ups and downs of wind output, 24/7/365, about 2 c/kWh

The levelized cost of decommissioning, i.e., disassembly at sea, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites

 

Floating offshore, as in Maine and California offshore, would be about $6,000 to $7,000 per MW, i.e., the bank loan and Owner return parts of the levelized cost would be correspondingly higher.

The levelized O&M likely would be higher as well

The various subsidies, added to national debts, to make it all politically sellable, would be higher as well

Comment by Willem Post on August 17, 2023 at 5:31pm

DAN,

Wind, solar, battery is NOT A BRIDGE TO NUCLEAR.

Wins/solar/battery, heat pump/EV is a RECIPE FOR  

1) POVERTY AND BANKRUPTCY FOR ORDINARY FOLKS, AND

2) A HIGHLY SUBSIDIZED, 20-year, LUCRATIVE TAX SHELTER FOR ALREADY-CODDLED, MULTI-MILLIONAIRES 

After that idiocy, and the widespread environmental damage, there would be no money "to go nuclear"

Comment by arthur qwenk on August 17, 2023 at 5:36am

Becky is just another sanctimonious old pro wind Green washed  wind bag from an organization that takes thousands from the industry  in donations.

Comment by Dan McKay on August 16, 2023 at 6:00am

Wind, solar and battery storage are simply a bridge to nuclear, the ultimate resource.

Comment by Willem Post on August 14, 2023 at 4:35pm

She is pro wind, but not in her back yard, even though it costs at least 20 c/kWh, which includes grid work and a fleet of counteracting plants, but excludes subsidies, etc.

FLOATING OFFSHORE IS EVEN MORE EXPENSIVE

 
She is anti fossil at about 6 c/kWh, which have built all we you see around you, including your clothes and food and shelter

80% of all energy used by the world is from fossil, much of the rest is hydro, nuclear, biomass, wind and solar

Comment by arthur qwenk on August 14, 2023 at 3:12pm

Sierra Clubs mission is to bankrupt the citizenry for the Green Dream of non- sustainable intermittent unreliable power . In Maine,just look at your electric bill to see their accomplishments .