John Droz, Jr: Media Balance Newsletter: January 3, 2022

Comment

Comment by Willem Post on January 8, 2022 at 7:37am

MAKE NEW ENGLAND GREAT AGAIN

THIS SIMILAR TO DEFORESTATION OF THE 1800s, but nothing grows back for at least 25 years!!!

Comment by Willem Post on January 4, 2022 at 12:08pm

The EU is facing an energy crisis, because:

 

- EU RE bureaucrats urged countries not to sign long-term contract for gas from Russia
- The US, EU and NATO are on auto-pilot to contain and pressure Russia.

- There was minimal wind, minimal solar, and some nuclear plants had unscheduled outages

- The EU sucked gas from storage during summer, that would be needed in winter

- Germany and Belgium will close down more nuclear plants in 2022, for “green” reasons.

 

- Russia provides gas, as required by signed long-term contracts, plus about 5%
- The 5% is sold by Gazprom on the spot market at very high prices.

- Germany and France received all the 2021-contracted Russian gas by mid-December

- Germany is pumping some of that gas, via Poland, to “hate-Russia” Ukraine, which buys it at high cost, because it refuses to directly buy gas from Russia at low cost.

- Owners are diverting LNG carriers to the EU to cash in on the high-SPOT-price bonanza.
- See US spot price, $/million Btu

https://ycharts.com/indicators/henry_hub_natural_gas_spot_price

 

The spread between the United States and Europe for cargoes leaving the Gulf Coast crept above $37/MMBtu this week, while the arbitrage to Asia sits at around $30, according to NGI calculations.

 

With Henry Hub trading around $4/million Btu, a large cargo produced in the US is valued at about $16 million.

However, at current TTF prices, its value in Europe stands at roughly $168 million – a staggering arbitrage of $152 million, according to shipowner Flex LNG. 

 

“If you are able to source cargoes in the US, on a Henry Hub-linked index, it’s like having an ATM,” Flex CEO Oystein Kalleklev told NGI on Wednesday. 

 

Here is an article providing additional information

 

LEGAL FIGHT OVER NORD STREAM 2, AS EUROPE ENERGY COSTS SOAR AHEAD OF COLD WINTER

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fresh-legal-fight-erup...

Comment by Willem Post on January 3, 2022 at 6:41pm

BBB Bill is a Trojan Horse

 

The BBB bill consists of two parts:

 

1) A huge social program bill

2) An energy/environment bill

 

BBB is used as a Trojan Horse for the social program part of the bill, which would never pass on its own, i.e., without the much smaller, “climate-change-fighting”, energy/environment part. That part was added to the social program part to lure more US Congress votes for the entire bill.

 

The social program part of the bill is a Democrat wish-list that would permanently turn the US to the left, towards Sanders-style Socialism.

 

Democrats do not have a mandate for such a Socialist style, left turn.

Similar Socialist turns failed in Cuba, Venezuela, Russia, China, etc.

 

This strategy was pre-meditated by Schumer, Pelosi, Sanders, Wyden, etc. to “remake America”

The “standard procedure” was used by “the Shapers” for budgeting the BBB bill.

They purposely made the social programs appear inexpensive with 1) short durations and 2) CBO “scoring”, i.e., premeditated lying.

 

The social programs would be 3,477/889 = 3.9 times more expensive, if budgeted for 10 years. 

US debt adder would be 160 + 73, interest = $233 billion, with “gimmick” expiration dates to reduce costs.

US debt adder would be 2,748 + 266, interest = $3.014 trillion, with 10-y expiration dates

 

No wonder the US has become saddled with a $30-trillion national debt, much of it owned by foreigners.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/12/13/joe-manchin-not-fair-...

 

Comments on Table 1

 

All data in table 1 are from the CBO estimate of December 10.

The URLs show a CBO letter and CBO spreadsheets

 

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57673

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-12/57673-BBBA-GrahamSmith-Let...

 

The total cost of the 16 social programs is $3.477 trillion, or 3477/4490 = 77.5% of $4.490 trillion

 

Table 1/US House version; 10-y duration	Expiration	Duration	Cost	Start 2022 - End 2031
				10 years
Program		year	$Billion	$Billion
Expanded child tax credit (CTC)	End of 2022	1	185	1597
Expanded child care and preschool	End of 2027	5	381	752
Increased state and local tax (SALT) deduction	End of 2025	3	-15	245
Increased health insurance subsidies	End of 2025/26	2.5	74	220
Increased home- and community-based care	Various years		146	209
Increased health insurance subsidies for low-income folks	End of 2025	3	57	180
Increased earned income tax credit (EITC)	End of 2022	1	13	135
Increased higher education for low-income folks	Various years		12	29
Increased health insurance subsidies for unemployed	End of 2022	1	2	28
Summer electronic benefit transfer	End of 2024	2	3	23
Maintenance of Medicaid eligibility standards	End of 2025	3	7	20
Trade adjustment assistance	End June 2025	2.5	6	14
Trade-exempt bond financing	End of 2026	4	9	11
Elder abuse, neglect, exploitation	Various years		4	8
Compensation of journalists	End of 2025	3	2	3
Taxation of Pell Grants	End of 2025	3	1	2
Medicaid			0	1
Health insurance affordability fund			2	0
Total social programs, per CBO			889	3477
Energy/Environment, etc.			747	747
Total BBB bill, per CBO			1636	4224
Interest			73	266
Total BBB bill, per CBO			1709	4490
Less increased taxes			1269	1269
BBB bill deficit			440	3221
Less increased IRS enforcement			207	207
Added to US debt, per CBO			233	3014

Comment by Willem Post on January 3, 2022 at 6:39pm

PHASE 2; BBB programs last 10 years to obtain the true cost

 

After the US House bill arrived in the US Senate, some Senate committees reviewed the bill, as is standard practice with all House bills, and ordered the CBO to make another estimate, based on all programs lasting 10 years.

 

The CBO published its estimated cost on Friday, December 10, which showed the bill would cost about $4.490 trillion, if all provisions would last 10 years.

 

BBB would increase the US national debt by $3.014 trillion.

All data in table 1 are from the URL

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57673

 

Penn-Wharton Estimate of BBB Bill: Manchin, who was skeptical of CBO estimates, contacted Penn-Wharton, a well-known consulting entity with expertise in cost estimating of government programs.

 

PW estimated the cost at $2.084 trillion, new tax revenue at $1.810 trillion (US House version), and $4.551 trillion, if all provisions would last 10 years. See table 1A and URL

 https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2021/11/15/hr-5376-bui...

 

Manchin was right about being skeptical of CBO estimates.

CBO, as usual, had low-balled the cost, revenues and deficit. See table 1A

 

Inflationary Effects of Social Program Spending of BBB

 

The “Shapers” had selected arbitrary program durations to make the BBB cost look as small as possible (trying to fool everybody), knowing full well, once any government program exists, it would take a revolution to end it.   

 

In table 1B:

 

Column 2 shows the spending of each program allocated to its duration years.

Column 3 assumes all programs last 10 years, and the total cost is allocated to each year.

Column 4 shows the total spending

Columns 4, 5 and 6 are for 10-y duration of programs

 

Some inconvenient questions:

 

- If all social programs would expire after year 5, and there would be no spending on those programs in years 6 through 10, would tens of millions of voting beneficiaries no longer collect benefits?

 

- If all social programs would have 10-y durations, and their annual average spending would be $422.3 billion, would that not be inflationary, as claimed by the “Shapers” and echoed by the US Media? See column 6

 

- The voting American people are expected to swallow such nonsense?

 

Major Side Benefit of BBB for 2022 Election

 

The BBB social program spending of $430.5 billion in year 1, i.e., 2022, would bribe many millions of beneficiaries to vote for Democrats during the 2022 Election, and beyond, to continue collecting benefits.

 

Table 1B	Social program	Energy/Environment	Total	.	Social program	Energy/Environment	Total
	spending	spending	spending		spending	spending	spending
	Various durations	10-y duration			10-y duration	10-y duration	10-y duration
	$billion	$billion	$billion		$billion	$billion	$billion
Year 1	355.8	74.7	430.5		347.6	74.7	422.3
Year 2	155.8	74.7	230.5		347.6	74.7	422.3
Year 3	154.3	74.7	229.0		347.6	74.7	422.3
Year 4	112.3	74.7	187.0		347.6	74.7	422.3
Year 5	110	74.7	184.7		347.6	74.7	422.3
Year 6	0	74.7	74.7		347.6	74.7	422.3
Year 7	0	74.7	74.7		347.6	74.7	422.3
Year 8	0	74.7	74.7		347.6	74.7	422.3
Year 9	0	74.7	74.7		347.6	74.7	422.3
Year 10	0	74.7	74.7		347.6	74.7	422.3
Total	889.0	747.0	1636.0		3477.0	747.0	4224.0
Interest			73.0				266.0
Total			1709.0				4490.0

Comment by Willem Post on January 3, 2022 at 6:37pm

CBO Estimate of BBB Bill

CBO published its estimate of the bill (US House version), on November 18:

 

1) Cost $1,636 trillion, based on various program expiration dates, plus $73 billion, interest = $1,709.0 billion.

 

2) New taxes $1.268.9 trillion. This “revenue side” (politicians hate it, but it is required by law) likely is another smoke and-mirrors charade, because those taxes would have to be voted on, and most of them likely would not garner enough votes, if the 10-year costs were known.

 

3) Increase of the US debt of $367.1 billion - $207.2 billion, increased IRS enforcement = $232.9 billion.

Originally, Pelosi had stated $160 billion, but that did not include $73 billion for interest.See table 1

 

The bill, 2,466 pages, was sent by the US House to the US Senate.

If there had been a few more Democrats in the US Senate, the bill would have been passed, and signed into law.

 

CBO Estimates are Flawed

 

It is well known, at least among US Congress members:

 

1) CBO was created by the US Congress to create the appearance of “oversight”, and

 

2) CBO is billed “independent”, even though it is beholden to just one client, the US Congress. Anywhere in the world, this would be considered a conflict of intertest.

 

3) CBO has under-stated costs, over-stated revenues, and understated deficits of government programs for decades, plus CBO never shows a 5% to 10% contingency.

 

Over time, program eligibility and benefits are increased, but the offsetting revenues do not entirely cover the increased cost.

Table 1A shows an example of such estimating.

 

Government programs end up costing much more, and have less offsets, than “advertised”.

Government programs appear small, at first, but their costs inevitably grow beyond control

This has contributed to the huge $30-trillion US government national debt, over the decades.

 

Trust, but Verify; US Senators Getting a Second Opinion: In case of the multi-$trillion BBB bill, some US Senators obtained estimates from private entities, which, as they expected, revealed the CBO estimates were low-balled, in the usual manner.

 

Those estimates revealed, the combination of 1) artificially shortening expiration dates, and 2) CBO “estimating”, regarding the BBB bill, resulted in a deception of historic proportions.

 

As usual, the American people had no idea such shenanigans had been happening for decades, because the US Media does not properly analyze and publish the numbers, as was done in this article.

 

BTW, I sent this article to about 80 members of the VT Media, and almost all VT Legislators, and several VT quasi-government organizations, but there was no response.

 

Private Entity Estimates of BBB Bill: The Tax Foundation and Penn-Wharton are private economic consulting entities. They often estimate costs and impacts of government programs. Their estimates of the BBB Bill, based on various program expiration dates (US House version), are shown in table 1A

 

Column 2 shows the Tax Foundation

Column 3 shows no Tax Foundation estimate

Columns 4 and 5 show Penn-Wharton estimates. See Phase 2 for more detail.

Columns 6 and 7 show CBO estimates

The CBO estimate, for various program durations, is much less than other estimates. See URL

https://taxfoundation.org/build-back-better-plan-reconciliation-bil...

 

Table 1A/BBB bill	Tax Foundation	Tax Foundation	Penn-Wharton	Penn-Wharton	CBO	CBO
Program durations	Various	10-year	Various	10-year	Various	10-year
	$billion	$billion	$billion	$billion	$billion	$billion
Outlays
Spending, per CBO	1,479.3
Tax credits	658.4
Total, includes interest	2,137.7		2,084.0	4,551.0	1,709.0	4,490.0
Revenue
Corporations	470.0
Individuals	530.0
Net IRS reinforcement	148.0
Drug price provisions	340.0
Miscellaneous	177.0
Total	1,667.8		1,810.0	1,810.0	1,268.9	1,476.0
Deficit, includes interest	469.9		274.0	2,741.0	232.9	3,014.0

Comment by Willem Post on January 3, 2022 at 6:35pm

Dem/Progs want to have CARTE BLANCHE to have:

1) Just-walk-in, all-are-welcome, open borders,
2) Restrict energy production to achieve high inflation,
3) Facilitate stealing elections with: universal mail-out of ballots; universal harvesting of ballots; submit ballots after an election’ vote mote people than registered voters.
4) Pack the Supreme Court
5) Enact any law they like, such as BBB, to have the US make a Socialist left turn

Here is an example the extreme Dem/Progs will go to to get what THEY want:

“BUILD BACK BETTER” WOULD COST $4.490 TRILLION OVER THE NEXT DECADE, IF PROVISIONS WERE MADE TO LAST 10 YEARS
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/build-back-better-woul...

Distrust in Government

I am not surprised at the lack of public trust in Washington, DC, and elsewhere. The games of smoke and mirrors played in Washington are off-the-charts outrageous.

Never, ever, has there been such a level of deceit, as Democrats have inflicted on the US People, since January 2021, using a controversial election in 2020 (see Appendix), to obtain government power, to relentlessly implement:

– An increased size and intrusiveness of the federal government

– A major change in US demographics by means of just-walk-in, anybody-is-welcome, open borders
– Increased Democrat command/control over the federal government and the American people to “Remake America”

However, Dem/Progs made a fatal mistake.

– They intended to use top-down, command/control of the very-inefficient federal government to very-expensively “Remake America”.

– Their strategy is a highly un-American approach, significantly different from the history of US economic development.

– They never mentioned the words “private enterprise”.

In contrast, Trump’s “Make America Great Again” specifically did not rely on government. MAGA relied on:

– Eliminating business-stifling government rules and regulations

– Freeing up the creative energies of the American people

– Putting America and the American people first again, within secure borders

1) BBB budgeting smoke-and-mirror shenanigans, such as short program durations to reduce costs

2) BBB causing a major increase in the intrusiveness of the federal government

3) BBB increasing the bureaucrat headcount of federal, state and local governments by at least 100,000

4) BBB worsening high inflation rates in 2022, and beyond; CPI up 6.8%/y in November, 2021

5) BBB worsening multi-billion federal budget deficits in 2022, and beyond

6) BBB worsening the rapidly-growing US national debt, much of it owned by China, etc.

7) BBB worsening US trade competitiveness and $trillion-plus annual trade deficits

8) BBB worsening the precarious financial condition of the Social Security and Medicare Systems.

 

The BBB bill had become a Green New Deal for boosting Democrat constituencies. See table 1

The BBB bill, aka “budget reconciliation bill,” had morphed into a vast expansion and increase of:

 

1) The socialistic welfare state for individuals, and

2) The decades-long, multi-$billion, bonanza for multi-millionaire subsidy-seekers in the renewable energy sector.

Comment by Thinklike A. Mountain on January 3, 2022 at 1:40pm

RFK, Jr:

“Nobody has ever complied their way out of totalitarianism,” he continued. “Every time you comply, the demands will get greater and greater. We need to resolve here and now, ‘This is the hill that we need to die on.'”

https://thelibertydaily.com/rfk-jr-blows-the-entire-covid-narrative...

Comment by Thinklike A. Mountain on January 3, 2022 at 12:47pm

Climate Expert: Weather-Related Deaths Hit Record Low in 2021
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/01/03/climate-expert-weather-...