ISO-NE Warnings. Will the Legislature React?
Solar Output Is Especially Variable in Winter
In New England, winter has the most variation in solar output because of snow, clouds, and fewer daylight hours. Cloud and snow cover prevented solar panels from reaching their seasonal potential during a historic 16-day cold spell from December 24, 2017, through January 8, 2018, and particularly during Winter Storm Grayson, which occurred during that period. In addition, consumers use the most electricity after sunset in winter, due to the shorter days. While solar helps reduce grid demand during sunny days without significant snow cover and can help conserve other fuels for use later in the day, it doesn’t reduce winter peak demand. Changing weather conditions can lead to rapid and sizeable swings in electricity output from PV systems, which is why PV resources are called variable or intermittent. It’s also why the region will rely more heavily on other power resources that can help balance the fluctuations of the combined load and BTM PV, such as efficient, fast-start natural gas power plants, as more variable resources are installed in New England. In time, battery storage systems will be able to help manage through day-to-day variation, but may not help when unfavorable solar conditions last for multiple days.
- Solar shuts off quickly as the sun sets or clouds roll in: The ISO launched improved real-time fast-start pricing in 2017 to incentivize power resources that can quickly ramp up their output to bridge the steep increase in grid demand that occurs when the sun sets.
- More solar will mean more extreme dips in demand: In 2014, the ISO began allowing negative pricing in the energy markets to create a disincentive for grid resources to operate when there’s surplus power. Negative pricing also provides a market-based way to manage resources such as wind turbines that may choose to continue producing electricity at prices below zero because they receive other sources of income, such as state contracts or the federal production tax credit.
- PV behaves differently from other resources: Many grid-connected solar arrays and other inverter-based resources lack the ability of conventional power plants to “ride through” disturbances on the power system. The ISO has taken a leadership role in modeling how these emerging resources interact with the broader grid.
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Comment by Willem Post on February 5, 2025 at 9:44am
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The Dysfunctional State of Maine?
The over-taxed, over-regulated, already-impoverished Maine people are super-screwed, trying to make ends meet in a near-zero, real growth Maine economy
The Maine economy has lots of low-tech/low-pay/low-benefit, bs jobs
The Maine economy has lots of woke, leftist bureaucrats
Screwed-over Mainers also have to pay for poverty-stricken, aliens of different cultures from all over, who illegally enter the US, a federal felony
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Those illegal aliens:
– are the dregs of Third World countries, sent to Maine by their US-hating, leftist, woke governments, in cahoots with Soros-financed NGOs
– are getting free housing, free food, a never-empty credit card, free healthcare, free education and whatever other goodies they want. They mainly suck from the government tit
– have no skills, no training, no education, no modern industrial experience.
– will take low-tech/low-pay/low-benefit jobs away from screwed-over Mainers.
– are often good at crime, murder, rape, drug and human trafficking and mayhem.
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Many millions of illegal aliens have to be shipped back where they came from, before they ruin the US.
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Down-trodden Mainers often have to put up with the visual ugliness and noise of hundreds of windmills, that are often idle, because of too little wind year-round, and many thousands of acres of solar panels, that are often covered with snow and ice in winter; there is no solar at night.
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MAGA may lead to higher CO2 ppm to 1) increase growth of flora and fauna all over the world, and 2) increase crop yields to feed hungry people. What is not to like?.
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NEW ENGLAND ELECTRICITY 100% FROM WIND AND SOLAR by 2050?
In New England, we have Net Zero nut cases. They know nothing about energy systems, but spout lots of nonsense.“Keep it in the ground”, they say. “All electricity from wind and solar”, they say.
When presented with numbers and facts their eyes glaze overHere is a simple analysis, if no fossil fuels, no nuclear, and minimal other sources of electricity
ELECTRICITY STORAGE WITH TESLA POWER MODULES
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-example-of-ele...
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It is assumed, 1) all W/S output, based on historic weather data, is loaded into batteries, 2) all demand is drawn from batteries, based on historic load on the grid, as published by ISO-NE.
An annual storage balance was created, which needed to stay well above zero; the batteries are not allowed to "run dry" in bad W/S years. The balance was used to determine the wind and solar capacities needed to achieve it.
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New England would need a battery storage system with a capacity of about 10 TWh of DELIVERABLE electricity from batteries to the HV grid.
Daily W/S output would be fed to the batteries, 140 TWh/y
Daily demand would be drawn from the batteries, 115 TWh/y in 2024
Battery system roundtrip loss, HV to HV, would be 25 TWh/y, more with aging
Transmission and Distribution to users incur additional losses of about 8%, or 0.08 x 115 = 9.2 TWh
The battery system would cover any multi-day W/S lulls throughout the year
Batteries would supplement W/S output, as needed, 24/7/365
W/S would charge excess output into the batteries, 24/7/365
Tesla recommends not charging to more than 80% full and not discharging to less than 20% full, to achieve normal life of 15 years and normal aging at 1.5%/y.
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The INSTALLED battery capacity would need to be about 10 TWh / (0.6, Tesla factor x aging factor x 0.9, outage factor) = 18.5 TWh, delivered as AC at battery outlet.
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The turnkey cost would be about $600/installed kWh, delivered as AC at battery outlet, 2024 pricing, or $600/kWh x 18.5 billion kWh = $11.1 trillion, about every 15 years.If all money were borrowed from banks, the cost of amortizing $11.1 trillion at 6% over 15 years = 1132 billion/y, slightly less than the New England GDP
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital....
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High Costs/kWh of Wind and Solar Foisted onto a Brainwashed Public
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The three main US subsidies are:
Federal and state tax credits and cash grants,
5-y Accelerated Depreciation write off of the entire project
Deduction of interest of borrowed money.
The effect of the three items is to reduce the owning and operating cost of a project by 50%, which means electricity can be sold at 50% less than it costs to produce.
Utilities pay 15 c/kWh, wholesale, after 50% subsidies, for electricity from fixedoffshore wind systems
Utilities pay 18 c/kWh, wholesale, after 50% subsidies, for electricity from floating offshore wind
Utilities pay 12 c/kWh, wholesale, after 50% subsidies, for electricity from larger solar systems
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Excluded costs, at a future 30% W/S annual penetration on the grid, the current UK level:
- Onshore grid expansion/reinforcement to connect distributed W/S systems, about 2 c/kWh
- Traditional power plants to quickly counteract W/S variable output, on a less than minute-by-minute basis, 24/7/365, about 2 c/kWh
- Traditional power plants providing electricity during 1) low-wind periods, 2) high-wind periods, when rotors are locked in place, and 3) low solar periods during mornings, evenings and at night, about 2 c/kWh
- W/S electricity that could have been produced, if not curtailed, about 1 c/kWh
- Importing electricity at high prices, when W/S output is low, 1 c/kWh
- Exporting electricity at low prices, when W/S output is high, 1 c/kWh
- Disassembly on land and at sea, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites, about 2 c/kWh
Some of these values exponentially increase as more wind and solar systems are added to the grid
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The economic/financial insanity and environmental damage of it all is off the charts.
No wonder Europe’s near-zero, real-growth economy is in such big do-doUK and Norway
Norway gets 90% from hydro reservoir plants and 10% from west coast windmills.
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Because of long distances, there is little connection between the north and south grid.
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Any draw by the UK during W/S underproduction affects the south grid.
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The grid is pumped by generators with 50-cycle electromagnetic waves which travel at near the speed of light.
Electrons do not travel. They just vibrate at 50 Hz
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Any UK underproduction, resulting in voltage drops, is immediately sensed, and compensated for, by opening the water valves to hydro turbines in Norway.
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A few years ago, Norway oversupplied Germany and the UK, which resulted in much higher wholesale prices in the south grid, low water levels in reservoirs, rationing, aka blackouts/brownouts, and lots of Norwegians with EVs and heat pumps being p..d off.
.This time it happened again, and, just like that, the government fell.
INSTANT DEMOCRACY.We should have it in the US, instead of endless lying, obfuscation, grandstanding, obstruction, etc., for up to 4 years, or, God forbid, 8 years
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NOTE: I lived in Norway for 3 years. My brother-in-law worked at Norsk Hydro, which provides almost all hydro power in Norway. We talk shop. He thinks the nutcases in Oslo should be exiled to Nova Zembla.
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Maine will reap what it has sewn from its Climate Cultist Obamaesque/Bidenese Energy Policy.
Maine's Green Dream is about to become an Expensive Cold Energy Lean Reality for many.
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Dan
This write is good for the most part.
SOLAR CAN NEVER SIGNIFICANTLY SERVE DURING PEAK DEMAND HOURS OF LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING, WINTER OR SUMMER, because the sun is setting.
TURNKEY CAPITAL COST OF LARGE, UTILITY GRADE BATTERY SYSTEMS IS ABOUT $600 / kWh delivered AC at battery outlet
At throughput of 40%, about the highest that can be achieved on an annual basis, the owning and operating cost of the battery system is about 35 c/kWh, on top of the cost of wind and solar electricity sent through the batteries
You mention none of the other costs associated with wind and solar
Maine as Third World Country:
CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power
Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.
Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT
******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********
(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/
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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law
Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future
"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."
https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/
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