At least 40% of Ukraine’s Population Left Their Country

At least 40% of Ukraine’s Population Left Their Country

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/about-half-of-ukraine-...

There are many conflicting statistics floating around regarding the population of Ukraine.

It took quite some time to sort out the data to come up with some rational numbers.

All below data are corroborated by URLs

The URLs shown are only a few of the ones researched

 

The Kiev Coup d'Etat in the Fall of 2014

 

In February 2014, well before the US-instigated/financed ($5 billion from 1991 to 2014, per Nuland, who has Ukrainian parents) Kiev Coup d’Etat in the fall of 2014, there were about 2.6 million Ukrainian citizens in Russia, of whom about 70% , or 1.8 million were labor migrants.

That labor migrant total likely increased from 2015 to 2022, because of poor economic conditions in Ukraine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Russia

 

Annexation of Crimea

 

After the Kiev Coup d’Etat, not supported by the mostly ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine, Russia annexed Crimea 

The Crimean people (70% ethnic Russians, 22% ethnic Ukrainians and 8% Tartars) had voted by over 95% to re-unite with Russia. 
Crimea had been part of Russia since 1783, except for a brief period, when it was a part of Ukraine.

Russia made huge investments and successfully turned it into a vacation destination, mainly for Russians.

 

Ethnic Cleansing/Genocide/Harassment Campaign for 8 Years

 

In 2014, the Ukraine Armed Forces, mainly the extremist-nationalist AZOV battalions, started an 8-year ethnic cleansing/genocide and civil war in Donbas, from behind the “line of separation”, that killed and wounded about 14,000 people, including separatist fighters, and civilian men, women and children, from 2014 to 2022, as documented in monthly reports by the UN-OSCE. The UN

 

The OSCE reports were, and are still, ignored by the Western Media, to reinforce the story of evil Russia and evil Putin starting the 2022 invasion without being "provoked"

 

However, Russia was provoked by:

 

1) NATO’s expansion to Russian borders from 1991 to the Present (after promising Gorbachev in 1991, NATO would not expand "one inch" beyond East Germany!)

2) The 8-y ethnic cleansing/genocide against ethnic Russians in Donbas.

 

For more than 8 years, the people in the four annexed areas showed courage in the face of attempts to intimidate and deprive them of their right to have a Russian destiny, culture, religion, traditions, and mother tongue.

 

All those things are loathed by Kiev's extremist nationalists, and their "Eradicate-Everything-Russian" policy. Those nationalists unleashed a full-scale civil war and terror campaign against dissenters/separatists. They organized blockades, constant shelling, and punitive actions in the Donbas area.

 

Kiev’s government, taken over by extremist nationalists, banned opposition political parties and officially confirmed its “Eradicate-Everything-Russian” policy, which, for starters, violates UN and EU rules.

Always remember, real power isn’t just controlling what happens, but controlling what people think about what happens

 

Exodus of Ukraine Population

 

As a result of the Kiev Coup in 2014, about 1.9 million Ukrainians fled to Russia, in 2014, increasing their total to about 2.6 + 1.9 = 4.5 million.

Another 1.36 million Ukrainians fled to Russia in 2015, increasing Russia's total to 5.86 million

The Russian census confirmed, there were at least 5,864,000 Ukrainians citizens living in Russia in 2015. That total includes labor migrants. See table in URL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Russia

There likely were additional Ukrainian labor migrants during the 2016 - February 2022 period

 

Invasion of February 24, 2022

 

One of the goals of the invasion was to stop Kiev’s ethnic cleansing/genocide in East Ukraine, which has been populated by ethnic Russians for at least 300 years

After the invasion in 2022, an additional 2.8 million Ukrainians fled to Russia , increasing Russia's total to 5.86 + 2.8 = 8.66 million, plus any Ukrainian labor migrants during the 2016 - February 2022 period

 

Millions fled Ukraine to the West, and millions returned, but about 6.1 million opted to stay in the West, including about 80,000 able-bodied men in Poland, 123,000 in Germany, and 14,000 in Austria, who could serve in the military.

Germany, Czech Republic, Austria, and Hungary will not extradite them, but Poland has begun rounding them up and extraditing them to Ukraine, to offset losses of about 15,000 killed and wounded per month.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/last-ukrainian

https://www.rt.com/news/582919-eu-ukraine-extradition-draft/

 

I tried to find info about Ukrainians in Russia moving to Western countries.

It turns out, a very small percentage is moving from Russia, which is anecdotally reported by the Western Media.

BTW, Russians moving from Russia is a separate issue.

 

Almost all Ukrainians are not moving from Russia, because:

 

They have at least 1,000-year-old cultural ties to Russia,

They can freely speak Russian, instead of being forced to speak Ukrainian.

They can freely worship in the Russian Orthodox Church, instead of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.

They can freely watch Russian TV programs, instead of Kiev-controlled TV programs in Ukrainian.

They can freely read all books in Russian, instead of Kiev-controlled books in Ukrainian

Skilled ethnic Russians can easily get a well-paying job in Russia, because Russia has a shortage of workers, its GDP is growing about 2.5% to 2.8% in 2023, per World Bank, while the GDP of the EU economy is stagnant or shrinking, due to blowback of US/EU sanctions.

People often do not know, about 40% of all Ukrainians, in and out of Ukraine, have relatives in Russia.

 

NOTE: The EU has made a number of serious mistakes regarding the conflict in Ukraine, mostly when 1) it began destroying European competitiveness with its sanctions policy and 2) joining the US in an arms-supply race to assist Kiev.

The more weapons, the more people die, the longer the war continues, and the greater the destruction.

The more sanctions packages, the more European competitiveness is destroyed.

 

Population Beyond Kiev Political Control

 

Ukrainians Outside Ukraine in 2022

 

According to Ukrainian sources, 3.4 million Ukrainians were labor migrants in Russia and the West, in 2013, increasing to about 4.6 million in 2016; about 0.4 million left Ukraine each year.

This trend likely added a minimum of about 1.2 million labor migrants in the next 5 years, during the 2017 - February 2022 period. See URL

We will assume there were a total of 4.6 + 1.2 = 5.8 million labor migrants in February 2022, with 3.4 million in the West and 2.4 million in Russia  

https://www.epravda.com.ua/rus/columns/2017/02/2/619422/

 

Ukrainians living in Russia = 8.66, includes 1.8 million labor migrants as of 2015 + 0.6 million additional labor migrants during 2016 - February 2022 period = 9.26 million

 

Ukrainians living in the West = 3.4 labor migrants + 6.1, refugees = 9.5 million; some sources state 10.1 million

 

Total outside Ukraine = 9.26 + 9.5 = 18.76 million 

 

Population of Four Annexed Provinces:

 

According to data compiled by the civil-military administrations of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions and the statistical agencies of the DPR and LPR, these four provinces have a combined population of 5.1 million people after the invasion. 

 

Crimea

 

As of January 2021, the estimated total population of the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol was 2,416,856 (Republic of Crimea: 1,903,707, Sevastopol: 513,149).

 

The total population = 5.1, four provinces + 2.4, Crimea = 7.5 million.

These predominantly, ethnic-Russian areas could never be returned to the extremist-nationalist Kiev regime, because of Kiev's “Eradicate-Everything-Russian” policy

If Russia were gone from these areas, Kiev's extremist nationalists would immediately restart their “policy”.

 

Total population beyond Kiev political control = 18.76, outside Ukraine + 7.5, annexed = 26.26 million

Ukraine’s population dropped from about:

52 million at end 1991 (includes outside Ukraine and all annexed areas)

Less 18.76 million, outside Ukraine

33.24 million at present (includes all annexed areas)

https://www.bpb.de/themen/migration-integration/laenderprofile/engl...

 

NOTE: About 52 million people lived in Ukraine in 1991, and just over 41 million people in 2021.

In 2023, Kiev claimed Ukraine had about 33.5 million within its 1991 borders, but 7.5 million of them are in the annexed areas, so actual control is about 26.0 million, but 10.7 million of them are pensioned retirees.

 

Independent Estimates of Ukraine’s Population Decrease

 

1) Wilson Center Analysis of Ukraine Population

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraines-demography-second-y...

 

An analysis by the Wilson Center shows a similar population decrease from 1991 (within 1991 borders) to 2023 (less Crimea and four annexed regions)

 

As of January 1, 2023, 37.6 million people lived in the territory within the 1991 borders, less 5 million in Crimea and the annexed DPR and LPR = 32.6 million, at the start of invasion, less 1.5 million in the annexed Zaporozhye and Kherson regions = 31.1 million, in the territories currently controlled by the Ukrainian government, but 10.7 million of them are pensioned retirees.

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2) Jamestown Foundation Analysis of Ukraine Population

https://jamestown.org/program/ukraines-personnel-needs-reaching-a-c...

 

According to classified and partially open-source data, as of January 1, 2022, the population of Ukraine was 31 million; before the invasion.

 

The State Statistics Service of Ukraine reports 34 million, though there are problems with the methodology used to arrive at this number (RBK, September 16, 2022).

 

Per reference 1, the population dropping from 48 million in 2002 to 31.1 million in 2023, 20 years, is normal, especially as Ukraine has experienced multiple crises and out-migration waves during that period.

 

According to Eurostat, about 4.9 million Ukrainians received residence permits in the European Union between 2014 and 2022 (Ec.europa.eu, accessed July 25) and about 3 million did so in Russia (Ukrinform, April 23, 2018).

Ukraine still counts them as part of its 34 million population.

 

Subtracting from this figure the number of Ukrainians in the occupied territories (approximately 2 million), as well as those who left the country, the current estimate for Ukraine’s population (under Kiev political control) comes to around 20 million, but 10.7 million of them are pensioned retirees.

 

Population under Kiev political control = 31.1 million, Jamestown estimate - 7.9, work permits = 23.2 million, but 10.7 million of them are pensioned retirees.

 

3) Russian Estimate of Ukraine Population

 

Ukraine’s population shrank from about 46 million to about 25 million in 10 years, since protests in 2013 and Coup d’Etat in 2014.

See above graph

https://tass.com/politics/1738285

 

Conclusion and Outlook

 

Millions of Ukrainians had become guest workers in Europe, etc., since 1990, but Kiev still counts them as part of the Ukraine population, even though these guest workers visit Ukraine mostly on holidays and family reunions. 

 

The Ukraine population has been steadily shrinking from 1990 to the present, due to low birth rates, short longevity, widespread corruption, outmigration, poor economic conditions.

 

There are additional Ukrainians elsewhere in the world, but they were born abroad, such as in Canada, the US, etc.

Of course, some of those who live abroad will go back, though it is hard to believe it, considering the devastated condition, poor economic conditions and extremist political climate of Ukraine, such as, "Eradicate-Everything-Russian" policies.

 

The trajectory of Ukraine disintegration is clearly visible.

Able-bodied, fertile, productive men will be in short supply. Mostly woman and children left Ukraine.

This will result in reduced family formation, negative population growth, an aging population, and negative GDP growth for decades. 

This may be offset by lucrative enticements to 1) Ukrainians living abroad and 2) male immigrants from other countries.

With so many educated, productive citizens having abandoned their state, Ukraine will soon have insufficient resources to maintain itself, plus defend against Russia.

 

Due to high manpower and equipment losses, about 500,000 killed and at least 700,000 wounded, Ukraine likely will run out of trained soldiers to defend existing defensive lines.

Ukraine’s population, about 40 million at the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022, is now estimated at about 26 million (Ukraine estimate), but 10.7 million of them are pensioned retirees.

 

Thirteen million Ukrainians have fled since February 2022, and are showing no signs of returning.

Russia is pressing all along the front line.

 

Reports from multiple sources, including Ukrainian, indicate Russia is on the verge of capturing Avdeyevka, which has been the cornerstone of Ukraine’s defensive position in the Donbass.