“California’s Duck Curve Hits Record Lows”

By Robert Bradley Jr. -- May 23, 2023

“The forced energy transformation crowd continues to be in denial about how badly the California grid has been compromised by wind and solar, how expensive the battery solution is, and the prospect of Big Brother in the home (setting temperatures and restricting power use at will). As Ludwig von Mises observed, the failure of government intervention leads to more and more intervention, posing a choice between free markets and Leviathan.”

Social media is where the industry experts and talented professionals are effectively challenging the “magical thinking” behind climate alarmism/forced energy transformation, given the blackout of the mainstream media. As yet another example, Mike Hassaballa, energy engineer and consultant, reported on LinkedIn: “California’s Duck Curve Hits Record Lows.” His comment and graphics follow.

———————

The famous “Duck Curve” that symbolizes the challenges of integrating renewable energy into the grid has reached an all-time low.

The Duck Curve, initially coined by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), illustrates the daily electricity demand and supply patterns in California. Its distinctive shape resembles a duck with its head and neck representing the daily net load, i.e., the difference between electricity demand and generation.

But why is this curve so important? The Duck Curve showcases the impact of renewable energy sources, particularly solar power, on the grid. As solar panels proliferate across California, the curve’s belly – symbolizing midday surplus energy – has been steadily growing. This phenomenon poses a challenge as it can result in excess electricity during the day, followed by a rapid ramp-up in demand as the sun sets. Managing this imbalance is crucial for a stable and reliable energy system.

This highlights the pressing need for energy storage solutions, demand response programs, and further integration of renewable energy into the grid. By effectively managing the duck curve, we can accelerate our transition to a more sustainable and resilient energy future.


—————

More than 200 comments followed, most from the pro-renewables crowd arguing, in effect, “okay, this presents a challenge that the next phase of energy transformation, such as batteries and demand-reduction, must address.”

The critics of forced grid solar had comments ranging from “That is one ugly duckling,” which elicited the response: “It’s bound to be, it’s based on ‘quack’ climate science.” Then came the more serious. Dan Fowler commented in part:

The takeaway is that no new solar projects should be permitted (or are needed) without an equal amount of storage being made available.

And another:

No amount of batteries will address this problem at a fiscally sensible level. Pursuing further penetration of solar and wind, along with batteries will push California’s electricity rates ever higher to the point of impoverishing the population and driving any sensible business away.

Scott Tinker made the obvious point of more-of-the-same-is-worse:

… the logic of integrated more of the thing that is causing the duck into the system is somewhat lost on people who understand and have to manage these things. Perhaps additional dispatchable sources like natural gas and nuclear to create reliable electricity would be useful. And also have the benefit of bringing California’s highest in the nation [lower-48] electricity prices down for the consumer. Or, you could continue to follow Europe…

The obvious solution is to stop the wounding and treat the wound. No more wind and solar. And retire existing capacity to allow market signals to bring in combined power plants fueled by either natural gas or fuel oil. Coal-by-wire should also be encouraged. The electricity rate debacle can be solved and Big Brother kept out of the home.

Conclusion

The forced energy transformation crowd continues to be in denial about how badly the California grid has been compromised by wind and solar, how expensive the battery solution is, and the prospect of Big Brother in the home (setting temperatures and restricting power use at will). As Ludwig von Mises observed, the failure of government intervention leads to more and more intervention, posing a choice between free markets and Leviathan.

Views: 39

Comment

You need to be a member of Citizens' Task Force on Wind Power - Maine to add comments!

Join Citizens' Task Force on Wind Power - Maine

Comment by Willem Post on May 25, 2023 at 10:30am

The increased CO2 in the atmosphere and feeding CO2 into greenhouses, has created about 30% more flora all over the world, according to about 50 years of NASA satellite data.

There are many areas where there would be much more flora, such as in forest areas, but mankind has been busy destroying them, to make room for 8 billion people and their products and services

Some warming to promote growth has been helpful as well

People were freezing their n… of, in the dark, with little heat and food and clothing and no insulation and leaky, drafty houses, co-habitating with farm animals for warmth, during the LITTLE ICE AGE, not so long ago.

Thank the good Lord, we found all these fossil fuels.
We would waaaaay up s… creek without them

Comment by Willem Post on May 24, 2023 at 9:39am

Robert,

The article should mention, the graph shows the total electricity loaded by power plants onto the HIGH VOLTAGE GRID

The article should show a graph of the total electricity loaded by solar systems onto DISTRIBUTION GRIDS

If the sum of the two exceeds demand, then that excess should be:

1) curtailed (requires curtailment payments to owners),

2) exported (at low wholesale prices, because of surplus), 

3) stored (at a throughput cost of at least 20c/kWh, if stored in batteries),

if the output of domestic traditional power plants and imports from out of state (steady hydro, etc.) cannot be further reduced, to ensure grid stability

We are talking at least TEN THOUSAND MWh of midday solar electricity to be stored in 4 hours.

The required battery capacity would have a turnkey, all-in cost of at least $50 billion that would be charged to ratepayers, taxpayers and added to state and federal debts, not to the subsidized owners of rooftop solar systems

The graph is misleading, because the note at the bottom states, the outputs of utility wind and solar systems, connected to the HV grid, are not included.

If they were, the solar dip would be much less.

ISO-NE makes an estimate of solar output loaded onto distribution grids, for day-ahead planning the scheduling and outputs of power plants loading onto the HV grid.

In 2022, California generated 62,414 GWh of solar electricity

Utility-scale PV; 37,237 GWh (59.7%), connected to HV grid

Utility-scale thermal; 2,083 GWh (3.3%), connected to HV grid

Distributed (mostly rooftop) PV; 23,094 GWh (37%), connected to distribution grids

Turnkey cost of battery system = 10,000 MWh x 1,000 kWh/MWh x $600/kWh x 0.6, capacity factor = $10 billion.

None of that cost would be charged to the disturbers, i.e., the Owners of solar systems

All would be charged to ratepayers, taxpayers and added to federal and state government debts.

Fed to the battery would be 10,000 MWh, but only about 80% of that would be fed into the HV grid, due to A-to-Z round-trip losses. 

BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING

https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital...

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

Not yet a member?

Sign up today and lend your voice and presence to the steadily rising tide that will soon sweep the scourge of useless and wretched turbines from our beloved Maine countryside. For many of us, our little pieces of paradise have been hard won. Did the carpetbaggers think they could simply steal them from us?

We have the facts on our side. We have the truth on our side. All we need now is YOU.

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

 -- Mahatma Gandhi

"It's not whether you get knocked down: it's whether you get up."
Vince Lombardi 

Task Force membership is free. Please sign up today!

Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

© 2024   Created by Webmaster.   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service