Presidential Projections on Wind Power Flawed According to New Book

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May 30, 2012, 8:35 a.m. EDT

Presidential Projections on Wind Power Flawed According to New Book


BERKELEY, Calif., May 30, 2012 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Presidents Bush and Obama both supported wind power development by publicly referencing a Department of Energy (DOE) study that contains serious flaws, according to a new environmental book by UC Berkeley visiting scholar Ozzie Zehner. GREEN ILLUSIONS (University of Nebraska Press, June 2012) draws upon previously unpublished interviews with the DOE. According to Green Illusions, the DOE report renders a picture of wind energy that is up to six times more impressive than the department's own field experience would indicate.

Fifty environmental groups and research organizations formally backed the report, including the Sierra Club and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. However, during his investigation, Zehner found that an appendix in the DOE report contains projections that are incongruent with DOE field data. The report therefore greatly underestimates wind turbine costs and overestimates wind power yields.

The DOE report, 20% Wind Energy by 2030, concludes that the U.S. could fill 20 percent of its electrical grid with wind power at "modest" cost. However, Zehner contends that, "the federal report extrapolates a select few years of data into the future without acknowledging the industry's maturation. It's as problematic as extrapolating the growth of high school students to show that by college they will stand taller than giraffes."

The DOE commissioned Black and Veatch to create the wind energy datasets. The consultancy assumed that experience from installing wind turbines would improve yields and decrease costs well into the future. "While it is well accepted that this occurred through the 1980s and 1990s, the learning curve has since flattened," explains Zehner, "as the DOE itself documented in other reports."

Zehner does not stand against wind energy, but insists there are better options to reduce fossil fuel use. "Hype surrounding wind energy might even shield the fossil-fuel establishment -- if clean and abundant energy is just over the horizon, then there is less motivation to clean up existing energy production or use energy more wisely," says Zehner. "It doesn't help when the government maintains two ledgers of incompatible expectations. One set, based on fieldwork and historical trends, is used internally by people in the know. The second set, crafted from industry speculation and unconstrained by history, is disseminated via press releases, websites, and even by the president himself to an unwitting public."

Instead of pushing for energy production, Zehner argues that nations should prioritize urban designs for walking and biking and institute energy taxes. He also draws connections between environmental goals and seemingly unrelated endeavors such as financial reform and women's rights.

GREEN ILLUSIONS: The Dirty Secrets of Clean Energy and the Future of Environmentalism forms "a bold look at the downside of green technologies and a host of refreshingly simple substitute solutions," according to Kirkus Reviews. Green Illusions is a non-profit book and is available in bookstores worldwide. Highlights and author biography at: http://GreenIllusions.org

Contact:

Ozzie ZehnerAuthorUniversity of Nebraska Press(415) 501-0073Zehner@GreenIllusions.org GreenIllusions.org

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/presidential-projections-on-wind-p...

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Comment by Willem Post on June 1, 2012 at 10:39am

EXAMPLE: NEW YORK STATE WIND CFs BELOW EXPECTATIONS

http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/53258/examples-wind-powe...

Below is the URL of a table that shows the performance of New York State's wind turbines.

http://www.dailyenergyreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/NY_CF20...

http://www.windaction.org/faqs/31912 

http://www.windaction.org/faqs/35069

The Vendor promises were capacity factors of 30% to 35%, before installation.

The reality, after installation:

Installed capacity, MW: 1035.5 in 2008; 1,274 in 2009: 1,274 in 2009; 1,348 in 2010; 1414 in 2011

Production, MWh: 1,282,325 in 2008; 2,108,500 in 2009; 2,532,800 in 2010; 2,780,700 in 2011

Capacity factors: 14.1% in 2008; 18.9% in 2009; 22.7% in 2010; 23.6% in 2011

Because no wind turbines were added during 2010, the 22.7% capacity factor of 2010 is the best proof of the lack of performance of the New York State wind turbine facilities.

The data for the table was obtained from the 2011 New York ISO Gold Book

http://www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/services/planning/planning_data... 

http://www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/services/planning/planning_data...

This reality is not unique to NY State. It has replicated itself in The Netherlands, Denmark, England, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, etc. Here are some examples:

New England is marginal for wind energy, ridge line CF = 0.32, per actual Maine performance records. Denmark CF = 0.242, The Netherlands CF = 0.186, Germany CF = 0.167, Ireland is best in Europe, CF = 0.32. These are all much less than on the Great Plains which have CFs of about 0.38 - 0.40, AND have low capital costs/MW and low O&M costs/MWh, unlike wind turbine facilities on 2,500-ft-high ridge lines.

The production is invariably less than promised. Add this to the fact that the CO2 emissions reduction is much less than claimed by wind energy promotors, as shown in below articles, makes further subsidies and investments in wind energy an extremely dubious and expensive proposition. See URLs.

http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/64492/wind-energy-reduce...

http://www.clepair.net/IerlandUdo.html 

http://docs.wind-watch.org/BENTEK-How-Less-Became-More.pdf

http://www.clepair.net/windSchiphol.html 

http://www.clepair.net/Udo-okt-e.html

http://www.clepair.net/Udo-curtail201205.html

 
Comment by Long Islander on May 31, 2012 at 11:25am

The 20% goal, aside from being wholly ill conceived, is also a one size fits all cookie cutter approach. Even if one were to go along with the lunacy of wind for a moment, why would a windy place like North Dakota have the same Federal 20% goal as a place like Maine with a wind 'resource" per square mile that is 89% below the national average?

Answer: This is what happens when central planning gets involved, influenced by a special interest lobby. Throw a little Kool-aid into the mix and away we go.

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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Sign up today and lend your voice and presence to the steadily rising tide that will soon sweep the scourge of useless and wretched turbines from our beloved Maine countryside. For many of us, our little pieces of paradise have been hard won. Did the carpetbaggers think they could simply steal them from us?

We have the facts on our side. We have the truth on our side. All we need now is YOU.

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 -- Mahatma Gandhi

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Vince Lombardi 

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

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