GERMANY, CALIFORNIA AND VERMONT STAGNANT CO2 EMISSIONS

GERMANY

 

Germany, a major industrial country, is a leader in renewable energy generation. However, Germany made a significant mistake. Germany decided to phase out its nuclear plants, which produce low-cost electricity that has near-zero CO2/kWh, instead of replacing the plants. Germany continued to the use of lignite, a soft coal (low-Btu/lb.) coal, and hard coal. As a result, the CO2eq emissions have not decreased for the past 8 years.

 

Germany is headed for a clear failure to meet its 2020 and 2030 CO2eq reduction targets, according to calculations by the country’s environment ministry. Without further action, Germany’s CO2eq emissions will only be 31.7% to 32.5% below 1990 levels, an internal environment ministry paper seen by the Clean Energy Wire shows.

 

Given the official target of reducing CO2eq by 40%, the ministry warns that a failure of this magnitude would constitute a “significant blow to Germany’s climate policy”, and would amount to “a disaster for Germany’s international reputation as a climate leader”.

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/10/11/germany-miss-climate-ta...

 

Germany Not Reaching CO2eq Goals: Germany’s CO2eq emissions(from all sources) are about the same as in 2009. As part of the Energiewende, Germany is aiming to have:

 

- 80% of its electricity from RE by 2050

- 60% of all primary energy from RE by 2050

- 80% less CO2eq than in 1990, by 2050

 

Germany will not meet its CO2eq reduction targets for 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, unless it immediately starts phasing out all coal power plants, which produced 261.5/648.3 = 40.3% of net electricity generation in 2016.

 

NOTE:The Energiewende taxes, fees and surcharges on electric bills of German households totaled about 9 x 25 billion euro = 225 billion euro during 9 years (2009 - 2017) and achieved ZERO CO2eq emission reduction.  See table 5.

 

http://www.ag-energiebilanzen.de/4-1-Home.html

https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/klima-energie/energieversorgung/strom-waermeversorgung-in-zahlen?sprungmarke=Strommix - Strommix

 

Table 5/Year

All sources CO2eq

Below 1990

CO2 Elect

Below 1990

 

Million Mt

 %

Million Mt

%

1990 actual

1252

 

427

 

2000 actual

1045

 

358

 

2009 actual

908

28

345

 

2010 actual

943

 

357

 

2013 actual

942

 

367

 

2014 actual

903

 

349

 

2015 actual

907

 

337

 

2016 actual

909

28

332

22

2017 actual

905

28

319

 

2020 target

 751

  40

 

 

2030 target

 562

 55

 

 

2040 target

375

70

 

 

2050 target

250

80

 

 

 

Germany’s Solar Sector Growth Decreased Since 2010

 

German solar in 2017 was 39.9/654.8 = 6% of total generation, and wind 106.6/654.8 = 16.3% total generation. For now, Germany still manages to deal with 6% solar, because it is “allowed” to spread its excess electricity at near zero or negative wholesale prices to nearby grids. Those grids act as safety valves*.

 

*The solar-induced electricity surge is a large midday Tsunami, if clear skies; a variable Tsunami, if variable cloudiness; a lesser Tsunami, if overcast; a near-zero Tsunami, if snow and ice on most of the panels, in early morning, in late afternoon; a zero Tsunami, if at night. The celebrating (aka hyping), and subsidizing of that kind of troublesome electricity, and equating it with the steady, 24/7/365 electricity of traditional plants is far beyond rational.

 

Additional Items Regarding Solar in Germany

 

- Feed-in tariffs (FITs) for new solar systems (residential rooftop) were about 49.2 eurocent/kWh in 2007; and about 12.2 eurocent/kWh in 2015, 2016 and 2017.

- Larger-scale, ground-mounted FITs were about 8.0 eurocent/kWh in 2015, 2016 and 2017. See figure 4 of Fraunhofer URL.

- Investments for new solar systems were 5.5 b euro in 2007 and 19.5 b euro in 2010 (the high point), but were only 2.40, 1.62 and 1.58 b euro in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively.

- Solar sector employment was 38,600 in 2007; peaked at 110,900 in 2011; was only 31,600 in 2015.

- Annual solar system capacity additions were over 7000 MW in 2010, 2011, and 2012 (the high point years), but were only 1320, 1490 and 2260 MW in 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively, less than the 2500 MW/y Energiewende goal.

- Annual solar electricity generation slightly increased during 2015, 2016 and 2017, due to annual capacity additions.

- Legacy solar electricity cost was about 53 eurocent/kWh in 2005 and 2006 and slowlydecreased to about 27 eurocent/kWh in 2017. That legacy cost will be slowlydecreasing as about 2000 MW/y is added to the installed capacity. See figure 4 in Fraunhofer URL.

- On a sunny day, much solar electricity is generated at about 27 eurocent/kWh, and very little by the traditional generators at about 5 eurocent/kWh, thus the national mix of electricity costs at least 20 eurocent/kWh. A part of that mix is exported at near-zero or negative wholesale prices.

-  In 2017, the average FIT was = 0.30 x 12.2 (small rooftop) + 0.70 x (4.8 + 6.5)/2 (large-scale, ground-mounted) = 7.615 c/kWh, which reduced the solar FIT from 28.1 c/kWh at end 2016 to (40720 x 28.1 + 2260 x 7.615)/42980 = 27 c/kWh at end 2017, a reduction of about 1.0 c/y.

- German household electricity prices were 15 eurocent/kWh in 2000; were about 30 eurocent/kWh in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, a 100% increase in 17 years. See URL.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/what-german-households-p...

 

http://notrickszone.com/2018/04/21/green-failure-german-solar-indus...

https://www.thegwpf.com/green-mega-flop-german-solar-industry-crash...

https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/en/documents/publicat...

https://www.energy-charts.de/power_inst.htm?year=2014&period=an...

 

Additional descriptions of Germany’s ENERGIEWENDE results are in these URLs.

 

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/germany-not-meeting-co2...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-energy-l...

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/german-renewable-energy...

 

CALIFORNIA

 

With all its efforts to install wind and solar, and do away with nuclear and coal-fired power generation, California has made very little reduction of its CO2 emissions, compared with 1990 levels. Some of the reductions since 2008 were caused by the great recession. California’s 2020 target is merely to reach 1990 levels. See EIA graph in first URL, and figure 1 in third URL, and spreadsheet in fourth URL.

 

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=34792

https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/1990level/1990level.htm

https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/pubs/reports/2000_2015/ghg_inve...

https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/tables/ghg_inventory_scopi...

https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/reporting/ghg-rep/reported-data/2016mrrfa...

http://www.caiso.com/Documents/GHGTrackingReport-Summary-December20...

 

Table 1/Year

 Total CO2

Below 1990

Electrical CO2

Transportation CO2

Units

million Mt

%

million Mt

million Mt

1990

 431

Actual

 

 

2000

467.19

Actual

104.84

176.49

2008

482.78

Actual

120.14

173.18

2009

453.34

Actual

101.37

166.37

2015

440.36

Actual

83.67

164.63

2016

 440.00

Estimate

68

 

2017

 

Estimate

62

 

2020, goal

 431

0

 

 

2030, goal

259

40

 

 

2040, goal

 172

60

 

 

2050, goal

 86

80

 

 

 

California Electric Rates

 

California’s electricity rates increased 5.7 times fasterthan the rest of the US during the 2011 - 2017 period, due to the rapid build-outs of wind and solar and storage. The data in the table is from the EIA. See URL.

http://environmentalprogress.org/big-news/2018/2/12/electricity-pri...

 

Table 2/Year

 California

 US

Times faster

c/kWh

c/kWh

2011

13.1

9.7

2012

13.5

9.6

2013

14.3

9.8

2014

15.2

10.1

2015

15.4

10.0

2016

15.3

9.9

2016

16.2

10.1

Increase; %

23.7

4.1

5.7

 

California’s PV Solar Rooftop Mandate Grossly Inadequate

 

California, with great fanfare and huge media accolades, announced it will mandate PV rooftop solar on all NEW residences, including any building of three stories or less, beginning in 2020. This will greatly worsen the Duck Curve conditions.

http://www.powerforusa.com/2018/05/22/effects-of-mandating-pv-rooft...

 

The mandate should have been Zero Net Energy, which would require NEW buildings be:

 

1) Highly sealed and insulated, and

2) Have long time constants for heating and cooling,

3) Have low requirements for heating, cooling and electricity, a la Passivhaus.

 

A next step would be for all NEW buildings to be Energy Surplus, which would require these buildings to have enough solar and battery capacity for all electricity needs, and for charging plug-in hybrid vehicles, PHVs, and all electric vehicles, PEVs.

Additional description of Duck Curves is in this URL

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/wind-and-solar-hype-ver...

 

VERMONT

 

Based in the latest Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Update 1990 - 2013, issued July 2017, it appears there has been an increasein CO2eq emissions from 8.378 million metric ton in 1990 to 8.745 MMt in 2013. The numbers for 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 likely were about the same as 2013. See table 1.

http://dec.vermont.gov/sites/dec/files/aqc/climate-change/documents...

 

NOTE:It is truly amazing Germany, with a hugely more complex economy than Vermont, has up-to-date CO2eq data for 2017, but Vermont only manages to come up with 2013 data in July 2017!

 

- If the CO2eq of wood burning is added, the CO2eq becomes about 10.0 MMt in 1990 and 10.8 MMt in 2013.

- If Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry, LULUCF, are subtracted, the CO2eq becomes 5.2 MMt in 1990 and 6.350 MMt in 2013. See URL.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/vermont-far-from-meetin...

 

CO2 Sequestering by Vermont’s Forests Has Decreased

 

The CO2eq sequestering of Vermont’s forests has decreased, because of:

 

1) Less forest acreage, due to encroachments and development.

2) Increased clearcutting, roads, and other development within forests, which reduces sequestering, CO2eq/acre.

3) About 50% of standing timber being of low quality and suitable only for burning.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/is-wood-burning-carbon-... 

 

Table 1/Year/Source

1990

2000

2005

2011

2012

2013

Share

Units; million Mt

 %

Electricity

1.090

0.430

0.640

0.430

0.930

0.810

9.26

Transportation

3.220

3.990

4.200

3.680

3.640

3.660

41.85

Res’l/Com’l/Ind’l

2.450

2.900

3.000

2.460

2.220

2.450

28.02

Fossil fuel

0.008

0.004

0.004

0.004

0.005

0.005

0.05

Waste

0.270

0.360

0.340

0.290

0.240

0.220

2.52

Agriculture

1.130

1.150

1.060

1.040

1.020

1.010

11.55

Ind’l Processes

0.210

0.590

0.600

0.690

0.650

0.590

6.75

Total # 1

8.378

9.424

9.844

8.594

8.705

8.745

100.00

Wood combustion

1.622

1.976

2.056

1.906

1.896

2.055

Total # 2

10.000

11.400

11.900

10.500

10.600

10.800

LU, LUC, F

-4.800

-4.450

Total # 3

5.200

6.350

VT forest area; million acres

4.6

4.5

Aboveground C; million Mt

110.0

128.0

 

Vermont CO2 Reduction Goals

 

Vermont has a Comprehensive Energy Plan (latest revision in 2016) with CO2 reduction goals as show in below table. They exceed California and Germany CO2 reduction goals.

 

Year

million Mt

 million Mt

 

 Actual

Goal

1990

8.378

 

2012

 8.720

 

2013

 8.745

 

2030

 

5.030, 40% below 1990 (CEP 2016)

2050

 

1.680, 80% below 1990 (CEP 2016)

2050

 

0.420, 95% below 1990 (CEP 2016)

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Comment by Penny Gray on June 8, 2018 at 7:02pm

Any talk about reducing CO2 levels that doesn't include a discussion about integrating more nuclear into the grid is wasted energy.  If people were truly serious about the subject, we'd be building molten salt reactors.

First Prize

NE Book Festival

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT (excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010  http://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?"  http://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” http://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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