Willem Post's Blog (110)

The Vermont Comprehensive Energy Plan, CEP, projects to install about 35,000 cold-climate heat pumps by 2025 to begin the transformation of about 63% of building heating to renewable electricity by 2050. About 34% would be by biomass (wood burning) and bio liquids, and only about 3% would be by fossil fuels. See page 8 of URL…

The Vermont Comprehensive Energy Plan (CEP) states biomass and bio liquids are projected to increase by 20% by 2025, on the way to doubling wood’s share of building heat by 2035. That wood share increase likely would not be obtained by increasing Vermont’s harvest, because Vermont is already harvesting in excess of US Forest service guidelines. That wood share increase likely would have to be imports from NH and NY and imported wood pellets. See page 8 of URL.…

Since 2009, ExxonMobil and Synthetic Genomics have been partners in research and development of oil from algae to produce biofuels to replace traditional transportation fuels.

In 2017, ExxonMobil and Synthetic Genomics announced breakthrough research published in Nature Biotechnology that resulted in a modified algae strain that more than doubled oil content without significantly inhibiting growth, a key challenge along the path to commercial…

The main purpose of replacing gasoline and diesel fuel with biofuels is to reduce CO2eq emissions. This analysis found:

- Replacing gasoline with 100% ethanol reduces CO2eq from 1504 MMt to 1431 MMt, or 4.9%

- Replacing diesel fuel with 100% biofuel reduces CO2eq from 587 MMt to 234 MMt, or 60.1%.

These values are less than are usually stated, because upstream CO2eq emissions were included.

In case of ethanol, E100, the combustion CO2eq…

Edmunds, in California, has been performing a long-term road test of a Tesla Model 3 since January 2018. Here are the latest results from the Edmunds website.

https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-3/2017/long-term-road-test/2017-tesla-model-3-monthly-update-for-january-2018.html

A recent road test of the Tesla Model 3,…

RE proponents want to “electrify” the Vermont transportation sector. That means:

- Much less consumption of gasoline and much more generation of electricity.

- Internal combustion engines using gasoline, hereafter called E10 (a blend of 90% gasoline/10% ethanol from corn), would be replaced with electric vehicles.

For this article, it is assumed only EVs will be used to replace IC vehicles that currently are using gasoline. Hybrids would not be allowed,…

The EPA has a unique method of calculating MPGeq. The method is used nowhere else in the world.

The EPA arbitrarily sets the lower heating value, LHV, of gasoline at 115,000 Btu/gal.

Then EPA states 115000 Btu/(3412 Btu/kWh) = 33.7 kWh.

BTW, the LHV of E10 (a blend of 90% gasoline/10% ethanol) is 112114 Btu/gal.

When testing an EV, the EPA measures the kWh (AC) from a wall meter.

The vehicle state-of-charge meter measures the…

Primary Energy Sources Requiring Combustion

Source energy is the energy taken from the earth, such as from a well, a mine, a forest. The energy for exploration, extraction, processing and transport is used to convert the source energy to primary energy for the US economy. The US electrical system uses about 40% of all primary energy.

- Source energy is the energy taken from coalmines, oil and gas wells, and forests for conversion (by means of…

New England has the highest electric rates of any region in the US.

New England has the worst wind conditions of any region in the US, except the South, and the worst solar conditions, except the the rainy, overcast US Northwest.

See NREL wind map and NREL solar map.

https://www.nrel.gov/gis/images/100m_wind/awstwspd100onoff3-1.jpg…

SunCommon of Vermont commissioned Synapse-Energy to perform a study that would show the benefits of before-the-meter (BTM) solar. The study shows there were almost $20 million of benefits for all of New England, about $1.3 million for Vermont during the very sunny period of July 1 to July 7; that period had very little wind, and thus almost no wind generation.

That joyous news was released with much fanfare, plus admonitions from SunCommon not to reduce solar…

RE proponents want to “electrify” the New England transportation sector. That means:

- Much less consumption of gasoline and much more generation of electricity.

- Internal combustion engines using gasoline, hereafter called E10 (a blend of 90% gasoline/10% ethanol from corn), would be replaced with electric vehicles.

For this article, it is assumed only EVs will be used to replace IC vehicles that currently are using gasoline. Hybrids would not be…

Connecticut Governor Dannell Malloy, Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo, and Vermont Governor Phil Scott held a meeting about energy and issued a statement, which included the following topics.

The wording of the Governors Statement reflects the thinking of various RE proponents that appear to have hijacked the proceedings, such as the:

- Conservation Law Foundation

- Acadia…

VEIC, BERC and EV: Vermont Energy Investment Corporation, VEIC, a non-profit, quasi-government entity, assumed control of:

- Efficiency Vermont in 2008. EV, a quasi-government entity, is financed by a state-mandated surcharge on electric bills, about $60 million in 2016, which is annually increasing.

- Biomass Energy Research Center, BERC, a non-profit, in 2012. BERC became an in-house, captive entity that performs biomass studies for VEIC, Vermont…

Vermont’s wood burning harvest was 354,462 cords, or 886,155 green ton for firewood + 347,342 green ton for electrical generation = 1,233,497 green ton in 2014. See URL.

http://fpr.vermont.gov/sites/fpr/files/Forest_and_Forestry/Forest_Based_Business/Library/2014 HARVEST SUMMARY_final.pdf

About 347,342/719,033 = 48% of total…

100% RE aficionados, almost all of them never even designed, analyzed and operated any energy system, claim wind and solar, and hydro + bio + waste, and energy storage, and demand management, and energy efficiency, and heat pumps and the batteries of electric vehicles will provide electricity, at a minimum of 99.97% reliability, 24/7/365.

They likely do not know it takes only 40% of all US primary energy to generate electricity. That leaves 60% which would be much more…

The RE proponents in New England are opposed to additional gas lines gas to bring more gas to New England, and are opposed to additional gas storage systems. They support the RE proponents in New York State and Massachusetts, who have blocked pipelines to bring low-cost, domestic natural gas from Pennsylvania.…

David Ismay is an attorney at the Conservation Law Foundation. He wrote a commentary in VTDigger criticizing ISO-NE for making erroneous and overly conservative assumptions, etc.

https://vtdigger.org/2018/07/18/david-ismay-isos-sky-falling-message/

Mr. Ismay creates the impression the NE electric system can meet all future demand, including electric heat pumps for buildings and charging…

In the 2016/2017-crop year, the US had 85.8 million acres planted with corn, of which 31.4 million acres were planted to produce ethanol. The corn production was 14.440 billion bushels, of which 5.30 billion bushels were for corn to ethanol. The 169 bushels of each acre yielded 478 gallons of ethanol. Ethanol blended with gasoline was 14.80 billion gallon, about 10% of the gasohol fuel for vehicles. See table 1.…

Shortcomings of Wind And Solar

Variable and intermittent wind and solar electricity cannot exist on any electric grid without the traditional, dispatchable generators performing the peaking, filling-in and balancing. Battery systems could be used, but the cost would be well in excess of $400 per kilowatt-hour delivered as AC to the high voltage grid. See Note.…

Almost all studies compare ICs and EVs, as if they traveled the same number of miles over a period of years. This is a serious error, because EVs travel, on average, about 9642 miles per year and ICs about 13433 miles per year, i.e., EVs travel about 28% less miles than ICs. The average annual miles driven by a driver is 13476. See Appendix.

In actual practice, EVs are mostly used for shorter trips, because of a lack of range, but ICs are used for short…