Willem Post's Blog (135)

The Norwegians, who get 98% of their electricity from hydro plants (near-CO2-free), have about 60 years of experience building and servicing oil/gas rigs and laying undersea electric cables, gas lines and oil lines all over the world.

They have invested billions of dollars in specialized deep-water, Norwegian harbors and facilities for assembly of oil/gas rigs and invested in specialized sea-going heavy lifters, and specialized sea-going tugboats to tow the oil/gas rigs from…

As more EVs will be used in the future, a problem will arise what to do with the old batteries. Some folks say they can be reused for grid-scale storage to provide electricity, such as during multi-day wind and solar lulls, which in New England occur at random anytime of the year.

The old EV batteries would come in all sorts of shapes and sizes. They would have to be arranged in buildings and kept at about 70F for best performance. Older batteries have more in and out…

1) Wind and Solar Subsidies Provide a Bonanza for Wall Street

This URL shows wind and solar prices per kWh would be at least 50% higher without direct and indirect subsidies. They would be even higher, if the costs of other items were properly allocated to the owners of wind and solar projects, instead of shifted elsewhere. See below section High Levels of Wind and Solar Require Energy Storage.

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This article assumes the highly productive (CF = 0.90), near-CO2-free, NE nuclear plants would be closed in 2035, when their licenses would have expired, but the highly efficient (up to 60%), low-CO2, gas turbine plants would continue to operate as at present. 

Wind and solar (after the meter, ATM + before the meter, BTM) would be greatly increased by 2035, based on ISO-NE projections; 32% of a total NE grid load, versus 5.5% in 2018.

As a result of replacing…

A Tesla Model 3 has a worse life-cycle carbon footprint than a similar-sized Mercedes diesel car, the renowned German think tank, IFO, has found. It warns that electric vehicles are "no panacea" against climate change.

https://www.dw.com/en/ifo-study-casts-doubt-on-electric-vehicles-climate-saving-credentials/a-48460328

When the IFO released its findings…

Most people, including myself, really have no clear idea regarding the various subsidies required to attract capital for the build-outs of solar systems. Relatively few insiders, such as some legislators, the Vermont Department of Public Service and the Vermont Public Utilities Commission, likely are intimately familiar with all the detailed ins and outs.

The Vermont Public Utilities Commission administers the Vermont Standard Offer Program that promotes and subsidizes the…

PV Solar Output Variability During variable Cloudy Weather

Clouds are the main reason PV solar generation experiences intermittency (excluding the normal nighttime disappearance).

PV solar generation can rapidly decrease by 60% within seconds, due to a cloud passing over the solar panels causing a reduction in solar insolation.

The time taken for the cloud to pass is dependent upon cloud height, sun elevation and wind speed. These factors need…

The Hornsdale Power Reserve, HPR, battery system, 100 MW/129 MWh, in Australia, was the largest battery in the world in 2017. It is located near a 315-MW, French-owned wind turbine plant.

In 2017, various capital costs of the system were mentioned. About 1.5 y later, documents revealed the turnkey capital cost was about 56 million euros, about US$ 66 million, or 66 million/129,000 = $512/kWh; this was a low price, because Tesla was eager to obtain the…

In view of the grave concerns raised by 5 to 17 year old children on the impact of CO2 on the Earth’s climate, the government will introduce legislation to address the most pressing issue of our times, namely CO2 emissions and the ensuing climate mayhem that they cause. See Appendix 1.

CO2 has risen to record levels from 0.0280% (pre-industrial) to 0.0405% today. See Appendix 2.

The policy, inspired by the GND, has four main aspects, for…

ABSTRACT OF ARTICLE 

In this article it was assumed all New England fossil and nuclear plants would be closed down, and the 2017 capacities, MW, of wind and solar would be increased 22 times, to offset the electricity shortfall of the closed plants. It was assumed the load (electricity fed to grid) on the NE grid increased from about 123 TWh/y in 2018 to about 175 TWh/y in 2050, mostly due to electric vehicles and heat pumps. See tables 1 and…

The main purpose of this article is to determine how much AC electricity has to be drawn from the wall socket to have one kWh of DC in the battery. This appears straightforward, but it is not, because it takes energy to convert from AC to DC and to overcome the internal resistance of the battery.

Also, once the electricity is in the battery, it is used to operate the vehicle’s systems, whether in motion or not, such as heating/cooling the cabin and battery. That electricity…

IRE proponents want to “electrify” the Vermont transportation sector. That means:

- Much less consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel and much more generation of electricity.

- This article deals only with gasoline replacement.

- Internal combustion vehicles using gasoline, hereafter called E10 (a blend of 90% gasoline/10% ethanol from corn), would be replaced with plug-in electric vehicles.

Vermont had 2985 registered plug-in hybrids, and plug-in…

At present, gas turbine plants perform most of the peaking, filling-in and balancing services for the New England electric grid. Diesel plants also are used. If fossil fuel and nuclear plants were shut down, mostly hydro plants and battery systems would have to perform those services.

Projected Load on NE Grid 

Table 1 shows the energy sources of the NE grid in 2018, and the likely energy sources in 2050, with fossil and nuclear plants shut…

The Green New Deal, GND, to be implemented by 2030, appears to be an accelerated version of the wind, water, sun, (WWS) Plan by Jacobson, published in 2015, which is aiming to be implemented by 2050.

The GND Plan is more extensive in scope and has a shorter timetable than the WWS Plan. Here are some quotes from the GND Plan:

- “Upgrade and/or replace every building in America”

- “Replace every internal combustible engine vehicle”

- “Connect every…

The US/Canada became the "Middle East of Trees" for the British Empire, BE, after the British chased France out of North America at the end of the Seven Year War, 1756 - 1763, also called French and Indian War.

By controlling access to the trees, France, Spain, The Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, even in combination, could never build fleets of warships to challenge the UK.

There would have been no BE without that control.

A British warship, 60…

Vermonters use low sulfur No.2 fuel oil, propane, natural gas and wood for space and domestic hot water heating. Such heating contributes about 28% of total Vermont emissions of about 10 million metric ton in 2015 (latest numbers!).

No.2 fuel oil and propane are about 75% of heating emissions, pipeline and compressed natural gas about 22% and wood about 3%.

FURNACE EFFICIENCIES

The standard efficiency rating for residential heating…

Turnkey Costs of Battery Systems    

Here are some low-cost battery systems from Tesla. The examples show the Tesla hardware cost, so-called “pack” price, is significantly less than the turnkey capital cost.

Most people are confused about the wide variation of “per pack” prices reported on by naïve pundits on various websites. Here are some clarifications

- Tesla has two categories…

World Fossil Fuel Percentage Unchanged for Over 43 years

 In the 1970s the big worry was fossil fuels would soon run out, and so we should “use them wisely”. But in the 1980s the risk changed to one of an overheating planet, and so we should “leave them in the ground.”

This article shows unchanged fossil energy use from 1970 to 2013, a period of 43 years. See URL…