Understanding the Climate Movement Part 3: Follow the Money

Conclusion.

"The total amount of money invested in businesses and organisations that are dependent upon the myth that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels is causing dangerous global warming (and all the follows) is probably between $1 trillion and $2 trillion. That is about the same size as the total GDP of Australia or Canada. With that comes enormous incentive to maintain the myth, to lobby government and disparage or destroy any opinion to the contrary. Many of the groups supporting the whole shoddy edifice are highly coordinated, as one might expect from their socialist leanings, and very effective at stirring public emotion and lobbying government. Add to the mix a UN hell bent on globalisation and redistributing wealth from successful industrialised countries to the rest of the world and you get what Patrick Moore described as The Perfect Storm. In contrast, the few voices of opposition, mainly ethical individuals and conservative think tanks, tend to be much less coordinated (possibly reflecting their leaning towards free enterprise), and seem to be less successful in capturing public attention and sentiment.

It seems to me that the “science” will only be settled (or forgotten) when Mother Nature does exactly what she wants: the temperature may go up and the alarmists will rejoice in having sounded the alarm (even though it has little to do with CO2), or it will stay unchanged or go down, in which case they will either claim success in taming the monster or quietly fade away and find some new cause to dump on the long-suffering public. Whichever way it goes, the Climate Industrial Complex and all that supports it is now probably too big to fail."


Understanding the Climate Movement Part 3: Follow the Money


Guest post by Dr Paul Rossiter

Following my earlier two essays that looked at the new grand narrative of the green/left and the corruption of the cause, I now turn to the main engine driving the climate movement from day to day: the money. I became quite despondent while putting this together as I started to understand the huge, eye-watering amount of money that is dependent upon the unproven notion that atmospheric CO2 arising from the use of fossil fuels is causing catastrophic global warming/climate change/ pestilence and doom. Some headline numbers: the capitalisation of the renewable energy industry is over $1 trillion; the funding of the NGOs being used as alarmist publicity and lobbying agencies exceeds $2 billion; and the amount of government research funding committed to the issue exceeds $1billion. Good luck expecting that the resolution of some matter of scientific importance will cause these agencies to admit that their business is based upon a lie and that they will go away quietly, or at least scale back to a size more commensurate with the real market needs.

A caveat before I begin: the figures I quote are what is available in the public domain through books, web sites and annual and financial reports. I am not an economist and would welcome any further input that readers more informed than I could contribute. For all the examples cited in the following sections the figures are generally for the 2017/18 financial year.

1. Renewable Energy Industry: The Climate-Industrial Complex.

In 2009 Bjorn Lomborg wrote:

Some business leaders are cozying up with politicians and scientists to demand swift, drastic action on global warming. This is a new twist on a very old practice: companies using public policy to line their own pockets.

The tight relationship between the groups echoes the relationship among weapons makers, researchers and the U.S. military during the Cold War. President Dwight Eisenhower famously warned about the might of the “military-industrial complex,” cautioning that “the potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.” He worried that “there is a recurring temptation to feel that some spectacular and costly action could become the miraculous solution to all current difficulties.”

This is certainly true of climate change. We are told that very expensive carbon regulations are the only way to respond to global warming, despite ample evidence that this approach does not pass a basic cost-benefit test. We must ask whether a “climate-industrial complex” is emerging, pressing taxpayers to fork over money to please those who stand to gain.

Naturally, many CEOs are genuinely concerned about global warming. But many of the most vocal stand to profit from carbon regulations. The term used by economists for their behavior is “rent-seeking.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB124286145192740987 2009

According to Allied Market Research:

https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/renewable-energy-market

The global renewable energy market was valued at $928.0 Billion in 2017, and is expected to reach $1,512.3 Billion by 2025, registering a CAGR of 6.1% from 2018 to 2025. Renewable energy technologies convert the energy from different natural sources such as sun, tides, wind and others, into its usable forms such as electricity.

The global renewable energy market is anticipated to grow significantly during the forecast period owing to increased emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), particularly CO2 due to utilization of fossil fuels for generation of energy. In addition, limited presence of fossil fuel on the earth as well its volatile prices fuels the renewable energy market.

Asia-Pacific is expected to grow at the fastest rate during the forecast period. Owing to increase in demand for energy due to rise in industrialization in developing countries such as China, and India. Presence of these countries boosts the renewable energy market owing to factors such as rise in population, rapid industrialization along with favorable policies for the renewable energy sector.

Another forecast, from Acciona:

One out of every eight people on the planet continues to lack access to electricity. Within an energy setting that guarantees access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for everyone, the use of renewable energy must increase from the present 25 % to 38 % by 2025. This would entail an annual investment of 441 billion dollars in renewable electricity generation.

https://www.acciona.com/sustainability/

Taking the projections further, the idiocy of a “zero carbon” target by 2050 has been discussed many times. One recent analysis by Roger Pielke showed that it would require the construction of a nuclear power plant per day for every day from now until 2050! As such, I won’t pursue it any further here.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/02/net-zero-carbon-dioxide-emis....

It can be difficult to comprehend the meaning of figures in the trillion dollar range and so I thought it would be worthwhile to break them down at least to the company level, to help make them more tangible. In so doing I used data obtained from a variety of reports, but it should be regarded as indicative since some companies have a range of interests and it is not always clear if the data refers to the whole company or just the renewable business.

Wind Turbine manufacturers and installers.

Wind power continues to be one of the most commonly used renewable energy sources in the global market. It is forecast that the global additions of new wind power capacity are estimated at 689 GW over the next 10 years, which will bring cumulative installations to 1,160 GW by the end of 2027 – up from today’s 541 GW – meaning that the demand for wind turbines will be higher than ever. Therefore, the future of world’s top 10 wind turbine manufacturers looks very promising with strong opportunities for growth in the next few years.

Top 10 Wind Turbine Manufacturers in the World (2018)

Some of the major manufacturers of large wind turbines are:

Vestas Wind Systems A/S (Denmark), Market capitalisation $75billion, Sales $14.94billion, world’s largest producer with over 60,000 turbines in total, 112GW in 76 countries

United power (Guodian United Power technology Co Ltd), 100GW.

Enel Spa (Italy), Market capitalisation 67.8billion Euro, 97GW (probably includes some non-renewable activity)

General Electric (US), Market capitalisation $74.3billion. 25,000 turbines in total, 92GW

Other significant companies in the billion dollar range include NextEra Energy, Inc , Suzlon, Envision, Senvion S.A., Goldwind, ENERCON GmbH, Orsted A/S (Denmark), Nordex and Acciona Windpower.

Solar manufacturers.

The global solar energy industry is expected to reach $422 billion by 2022 from $86 billion in 2015, growing at a CAGR of 24.2% from 2016 to 2022. Solar energy is the radiant energy emitted from the sun, which is harnessed by using various technologies such as solar heating, photovoltaic cells, and others. It is an efficient form of unconventional energy and a convenient renewable solution toward growing greenhouse emissions and global warming.

https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/solar-energy-market

First Solar, Market capitalisation $4.5 billion

Canadian Solar Inc., Market capitalisation $3.6 billion

JA Solar Market capitalisation $2.6 billion

Yingli Solar (China), 20 GW shipped to 90 countries’ annual revenue $1.25billion

Other significant manufacturers include Jinko , Qcells, Winiaco, REC, LG energy, Trina Solar, SunPower and Panasonic

Energy distributors with major renewable content.

Avangrid, Assets $32billion, 32GW, wind

Innergex, Assets C$6.5billion, revenue C$57.6billion, hydro, wind, solar

Boralex Market capitalisation $2billion, wind, hydro, thermal, solar

Berkshire Hathaway Energy, 32GW, wind, solar, biomass, geothermal.

Others include Transalta (wind, solar, hydro, coal, gas), Invenergy, (solar, wind), The Tata Power Company Limited (hydro, solar, wind, biomass), Geronimo Energy (wind and solar), EDF energy (Nuclear, wind, solar, gas),

Other technologies.

Ocean Power Technologies, Inc (US) (wave), On Power (geothermal), Tocardo BV (tidal river and ocean water turbine manufacturer), SynTech Bioenergy LLC (power from biomass feedstocks).

Each major manufacturer typically employs around 5000 staff and 10’s of thousands are employed in the support industries.

In addition to the companies directly involved in manufacturing and support of renewable energy products, there are all the companies providing goods and materials that go into the manufacture of the products, as well as the legal and financial services that provide support (see for example http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.021).

Bjorn Lomborg again:

Even companies that are not heavily engaged in green business stand to gain. European energy companies made tens of billions of euros in the first years of the European Trading System when they received free carbon emission allocations.

Given the enormous investment in capital and personnel largely dependent in propagation of the myth that anthropogenic CO2 is a threat to the future of the planet, it is no wonder that there is extensive lobbying to reinforce that myth: the Climate-Industrial Complex at its finest. While much of the lobbying is pro-renewable, it would also be naïve to think that there wasn’t also a significant anti-nuclear aspect as well.

Back to Bjorn:

U.S. companies and interest groups involved with climate change hired 2,430 lobbyists just last year, up 300% from five years ago. Fifty of the biggest U.S. electric utilities — including Duke — spent $51 million on lobbyists in just six months

The world’s largest wind-turbine manufacturer, Copenhagen Climate Council member Vestas, urges governments to invest heavily in the wind market. It sponsors CNN’s “Climate in Peril” segment, increasing support for policies that would increase Vestas’s earnings. A fellow council member, Mr. Gore’s green investment firm Generation Investment Management, warns of a significant risk to the U.S. economy unless a price is quickly placed on carbon.

More discussion about the emergence of the Climate-Industrial Complex is given in Green Tyrrany by Rupert Darwall.

2. Research agencies propagating the CAGW myth.

There are a number of research agencies funded by governments, either as single organisations or consortia involving a number of participants. Many of these have programs investigating the effect of climate change on the environment but all (as far as I can ascertain) accept the mantra of an anthropogenic cause of the change, usually based upon IPCC reports, and this pre-determines their projections into the future. Before consider some specific examples, I would like to make clear that I am not criticising the quality of their science or graduate training programmes per se, but I am highlighting their inherent conflict of interest: they depend upon government funding and so there is an imperative to provide a scientific opinion that is commensurate with government policy.

A few examples based upon information available to the public:

NOAA (USA), $5.5 billion.

The NOAA budget was under pressure in the March 2019 House Appropriations’ Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies. The Trump administration proposed cutting NOAA’s budget to about $4.5 billion for fiscal year (FY) 2020, a drop of nearly $1 billion, compared with the agency’s FY 2019 enacted budget. The budget cuts targeted the climate and ocean research programs and also slash education initiatives, grants, and other agency programs.

Under questioning from subcommittee member Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) about climate change, Neil Jacobs (then NOAA Acting Administrator) reacknowledged the validity of the Fourth National Climate Assessment, which states, “Global average temperature has increased by about 1.8°F from 1901 to 2016, and observational evidence does not support any credible natural explanations for this amount of warming; instead, the evidence consistently points to human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse or heat-trapping gases, as the dominant cause.” After the hearing, Jacobs elaborated, telling journalists that the National Climate Assessment “was built on peer-reviewed literature.”

So the leadership view of NOAA is aligned with the IPCC and there is no question of natural causes of climate change.

Read the rest at the following weblink:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/06/understanding-the-climate-mo...

READ PART 1

Understanding the climate movement: the impotence of science.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/26/understanding-the-climate-mo...

READ PART 2

Understanding the Climate Movement Part 2: Noble Cause Corruption.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/02/understanding-the-climate-mo...

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Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

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(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

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