Trends in Maine From Introduction of Wind Power

>Added nearly 1000 megawatts of wind 2007 - 2019

Wind Produced 2,450,000 megawatthours 2019

> Reduced Natural Gas Output By 5,065,000 Megawatt-hours annually 2007 - 2019

> Reduced Biomass Output By 1,588,000 Megatwatt Hours 

> Reduced Overall Output By 6,011,000 Megawatt Hours 

>Transmission Line Capacity Must Be Sized According To Nameplate Generation Ratings

>Wind at 1000 Megawatt Nameplate Requires A Transmission Line Rating Of 7,272,000 Megawatt Hours Annually. 

> As Wind And Solar Generation Grows, Maine Loses The Reliable Generation Output Of Natural Gas And Biomass

> As Wind And Solar Generation Grows, Maine Relies On More Imported Backstop Power 

> Available Backstop Power Flows Into Maine From Canada And The Other 5 New England States ( Until It Isn't There ) 

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Comment by Willem Post on March 16, 2020 at 10:09am

>Wind at 1000 Megawatt Nameplate Requires A Transmission Line Rating Of 7,272,000 Megawatt Hours Annually. 

A transmission line could theoretically deliver 1000 x 8766 x 1.0 capacity factor = 8,766,000 MWh/y.

But it actually delivers at the capacity factor of wind in Maine, which is about 0.29

Actual delivery would be 1000 x 8766 x 0.29 = 2,540,400 MWh/y

The normal capacity factor of US transmissions lines, not tied to wind turbines, is about 0.60

Comment by Willem Post on March 16, 2020 at 10:00am

Hi Dan,

Very nice summary.

I think people do not understand "backstop" power.

Wind generation is RANDOM, unpredictable like the wind.

Wind electricity can be fed to the NE grid only if the other generators are available, 24/7/365, (either in NE or in nearby grids) to counteract the ups and downs of wind.

Some idiot RE folks, who have no technical training, never analyzed or designed any energy systems, want to shut down nuclear and gas plants, for idiot-logical reasons.

That would deprive the NE grid of "counteract" capability.

Some idiot RE folks say "we will use storage"

Vermont has a Comprehensive Energy Plan, CEP. The capital for implementing the CEP would be in excess of $1.0 billion per year for at least 33 years, according to the Energy Action Network annual report.

 

https://outside.vermont.gov/sov/webservices/Shared%20Documents/2016...

http://eanvt.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EAN-2015-Annual-Report-... 

 

As part of implementing the CEP, FORTRESS folks want taxpayers to pony up $1.2 billionfor the 2020 – 2025 period, $240 million/y

That would be on top of current Vermont spending on all energy programs of about $210 million/y

The “down payment” would cover:

 

1) Energy storage systems:

About $900 million would be required during 2020 – 2025 to:

 

- Store solar electricity during midday hours with low demand and lower wholesale prices and discharge electricity during late-afternoon/early-evening hours

with high demand and higher wholesale prices. The image shows solar output during variable, cloudy weather, typical in NE.

 

Gas turbine-generators are commonly used to counteract the disturbing ups and downs of solar, but they have a slower response than li-ion battery systems. This service should be charged to owners of solar systems (the disturbers), but it is not, because that would make solar electricity more costly/kWh. Subsidies and cost shifting are the name of the game. See URL.

http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cost-shifting-is-the-na...

 

 

ISO-NE states VT had 382.5 MW dc, or 382.5 x 0.8 = 306.3 MW ac installed at end 2018.

Solar generation during midday hours, on a very sunny day, would be 306.3 MW x 5 hours = 1531.5 MWh ac, fed to grid.

 

If 50% were consumed, net fed to grid would be about 750 MWh

If all of that were stored, instead of fed to grid, the turnkey capital cost would be about 750,000 kWh x $500/kWh = $375 million. See URLs.

  

NOTE: Solar electricity would be minimal during snowy winter days and overcast days.

 

https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2019/04/final-2019-p...

https://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/26/teslas-enormous-battery-in-a...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornsdale_Wind_Farm

https://reneweconomy.com.au/revealed-true-cost-of-tesla-big-battery...

 

- Store electricity (from all sources (except solar, because it is asleep) during night-time hours with low demand and low wholesale prices and discharge electricity during late-afternoon/early-evening hours with high demand and high wholesale prices.

 

If a larger quantity, say 1000 MWh, of night-time electricity were drawn from the NE grid and stored, the turnkey capital cost would be about 1,000,000 x 500 = $500 million, for a total of $875 million.

 

Vermont daily “fed to grid” is about 6 million MWh/y / 365 = 16,438 MWh, i.e., storage is only 1750/16438 = 10.6% of fed to grid.   

 

NOTE: There would be a loss of about 20% (output would be 80% of input), on a high-voltage-to-high-voltage basis.

 

Future Grid-Scale Storage

 

After nuclear and gas plants are closed, and most of NE electricity would be from wind and solar, per wishes of RE proponents:

 

About 10 TWh of storage would be required to cover seasonal generation of wind and solar, at a turnkey cost of $1.5 trillion, at a future price of $150/kWh. See Hornsdale URLs.

 

By proportion, Vermont’s share of NE storage would be 6 TWh/122 TWh x $1.5 trillion = $74 billion

 

Storage for a 7-day VT wind/solar lull would require about $21 billion.

Wind/solar lulls occur at random throughout the year. 

 

 

2) Curtailment Payments:

 About $300 million paid to multi-millionaire owners of larger wind and solar systems for the electricity they could have produced, but did not, due to ISO-NE demanded curtailments.

 

Much more money per year would be required after 2025.

Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law

Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future

"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."

https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/

 

Maine as Third World Country:

CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power

 

Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.

Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT

******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********

(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/

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