“New England’s Shrinking Need For Natural Gas”
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Comment by Frank J. Heller, MPA on January 2, 2019 at 3:30pm
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good background read on the topic:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/features/the-pros-and-cons-of-natural-g...
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There is an electronic web site for Natural Gas Vehicles. I've been reading it for years.... NGV Global News Website
It's become obvious, this is now an expanding field that includes heavy vehicles, ships, etc. to go alone with energy production. The 3 Lines opening this spring by Russia will flood Europe with inexpensive LNG and trigger a vehicle conversion binge. Eventually, this will migrate over to the U.S. and Canada, and you'll see more CNG powered vehicles come out of hiding, i.e. VW, HONDA, etc.
I'd bet the synapse analysts didn't fully scrutinize the vehicle markets relative to growing availability; or perhaps they did and this is why the opposition is so fierce. CNG as a fuel can be taxed; electricity will be difficult...I guess you know those recharging stations come with a price to the driver and that will trigger a fuel tax of some kind.
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Comment by Willem Post on December 31, 2018 at 6:08am
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Synapse is the "go to consultant" for pro RE entities.
Synapse reliably puts out reports that support the pro RE entity views.
Those views often are at variance with ISO-NE views, which is based on about 40 years of ACTUAL EXPERIENCE PROVIDING RELIABLE ELECTRICITY SERVICE IN NEW ENGLAND.
The Synapse report about pipelines leaves out important information.
It simplistically presents only the Synapse view, which is at variance with more realistic ISO-NE views.
The Synapse view basically muddies the waters.
The report will be used to sway lay people, including legislators.
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Comment by Thinklike A. Mountain on December 30, 2018 at 1:29pm
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I wonder if Synapse has an agenda.
Synapse analyzes the policy treatment, regulations, costs and benefits, employment impacts, rate impacts, emissions, grid integration issues, siting issues, and technical and economic potential of renewable energy and distributed generation (DG) technologies. This work includes reviewing the potential for renewable and DG resources in integrated resource planning exercises, and conducting detailed technical analysis and modeling to develop state and regional clean energy plans.
https://www.synapse-energy.com/capabilities/renewable-energy-and-di...
Synapse Clean Power Plan Toolkit
https://www.synapse-energy.com/tools/synapse-clean-power-plan-toolkit
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Comment by Dan McKay on December 30, 2018 at 12:39pm
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Arthur, I would call it more of a reality check on how state sponsoring of selective resources will diminish the revenue stream to natural gas-fired electric plants. When a state makes a purchase of the output of a particular plant, it expects the plant to make a low enough bid to participate in the daily wholesale market. Every incremental amount of sponsored resource replaces a comparable amount of natural gas output and eventually the loss of revenue puts the gas plant out of business.
There have been no power purchase agreements with gas plants except for the ISO-NE bailout of the Mystic Plant.Maine gas plants have steadily and incrementally decreased their output, summer and winter, with the incremental increase of in-state wind power, sponsored by out of state power purchase agreements. Some plants, like the Rumford Gas Plant make more money from capacity payments than wholesale energy payments.Maine gas plant owners of the Bucksport, Veazie and Westbrook plants are protesting the NECEC hydro project upon fears of being priced out of the market.NextEra is protesting the NECEC hydro project upon fears it will keep their proposed Western Maine wind and solar projects from getting transmission rights. Sometimes, it is better to prepare for what might be, than to consider the ugliness of the motivations that be.
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With a net outflow of New England's residents and businesses occurring in no small part because of green policies , gas pipelines may indeed be unnecessary, along with any other new energy sources .
Will Maine become New England's first wood stove powered full barter economy?
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"Our modeling shows that if the ANE pipeline is built as proposed, ratepayers will bear substantial net cost increases on their utility bills, even if the pipeline alleviates winter price spikes. Furthermore, within several years of the pipeline’s construction, the overall need for natural gas in New England’s electric sector is expected to decline dramatically as states work toward compliance with existing laws and regulations. The decline in natural gas use for electric generation indicates that even existing gas pipelines may operate under capacity and that ANE—or other new pipeline infrastructure—will not be needed to supply either electric generators or gas heating customers.39 Under these circumstances, spending $6.6 billion on a new pipeline meant to provide natural gas yearround to electric power plants is not a reasonable or cost-effective way to address pipeline capacity constraints."
or in conclusion,another politically modeled ideological anti-growth document.
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It is politics and green ideology , not science of fuel density or economic realities that drive the region. New England is losing population because of over regulation and high taxation,and the loss of dense energy producers like nuclear and lack of the reality that renewable energy means intermittent costly energy and can never power modernity,
Of course, this cycle is now helping produce net out migration from the region from its concomitant use of high taxation and over regulation to push "green ideology" and politics, and not dealing with reality of the needed base load of the area,if it were to stabilize or even grow.
It is really very basic once all the politics and ideology is removed and BTU science and basic economics is employed.
Bring on denser fuels like natural gas, hydro or nuclear for base load, or the citizens of the region will be paying much more for much less from intermittent unbalanced and ofttimes more environmentally damaging archaic technologies , like windmills for example.
Padding the elitist political ideology at the cost of the citizens is now popular.
When the lights dim and the electric bills soar ,the reality of basic science and economics will have its say.
I have a proposal , let's make Portland Maine the first city in New England to be totally driven by wind turbines in its own boundaries and see how it does .
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Willem. discussions within ISO-NE Consumer Liaison Group are getting serious about the battle of sponsored resources....................
In a presentation by Eric Annes, Associate Research Analyst, Office of Energy Supply, Bureau of Energy and Technology Policy, Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection ( ISO-NE CLG Meeting 12-06-2018 }, He states :•" ISO-NE’s market solutions should not result in Connecticut ratepayers paying twice for resources or ratepayers paying for solutions and not receiving significant benefits. "This describes the Mystic bailout in a nutshell :State sponsored intermittent, renewable resources are forcing ISO-NE into sponsoring plants that state sponsored are designed to do away with.And this relates to recent Connecticut's Zero Carbon solicitation :State sponsored intermittent, renewable resources are forcing states to also sponsor resources critical to reliable backup of intermittent resources.Ratepayers paying for solutions. The wholesale competitive market is becoming irrelevant and susceptible to market power. Already, ISO-NE conjectures 50% of the real time market is under market power.
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NOTE: In below comment "CAN BE ZERO" should read "MINIMAL, I.E., NEAR ZERO"
The Synapse report does not mention:
- ISO-NE has already performed an analysis of the projected NE grid load
- ISO-NE does not, AT THIS TIME, know how fast electric vehicles and heat pumps will be deployed in future years. See page 9 of URL
https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2018/02/2018_reo.pdf
-ISO-NE has observed, over the years, the ACTUAL build-outs of RE and energy efficiency usually are well short of and occur later than the avowed INTENTIONS of states.
- However, Synapse assumes ALL AVOWED INTENTIONS WILL BE IMPLEMENTED AND ON TIME.
- ISO-NE states: "If rapid EV or electric heating adoption emerges, the impacts may need to be considered in the ISO’s outlook for the region’s demand and energy.
- The ISO plans to start working with regional stakeholders to quantify the impact of the states’ decarbonization policies on long-term demand so that we can understand their potential effects on the power system and reflect these in future Regional System Plans."
MAJOR COLD SPELLS
During a major cold spell in winter, people would be heating their houses and other buildings with heat pumps, and oil, gas, propane, etc., and would be using their regular vehicles and EVs for driving to work, etc.
That means a very big ADDED load on the NE grid AT THAT TIME.
That means there needs to be plenty of oil and gas IN STORAGE NEAR GAS TURBINES to serve the total load without interruptions, because wind and solar likely could be MINIMAL, i.e., NEAR ZERO, at the same time.
Synapse and its clients want to ship more LNG through the Everett terminal, but one must not forget that additional LNG would not be coming from friendly Trinidad at about $5/million Btu, but from hostile Russia and the Middle East at about $9/million Btu, in foreign-owned tankers, built in foreign shipyards, crewed by foreigners.
Sending $dollars abroad to buy gas when the US has an abundance of gas appears not to smart to me.
It is downright subversive, as it would be adding to the US trade deficit and would fail to be putting America first.
Maine as Third World Country:
CMP Transmission Rate Skyrockets 19.6% Due to Wind Power
Click here to read how the Maine ratepayer has been sold down the river by the Angus King cabal.
Maine Center For Public Interest Reporting – Three Part Series: A CRITICAL LOOK AT MAINE’S WIND ACT
******** IF LINKS BELOW DON'T WORK, GOOGLE THEM*********
(excerpts) From Part 1 – On Maine’s Wind Law “Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine if the law’s goals were met." . – Maine Center for Public Interest Reporting, August 2010 https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/From Part 2 – On Wind and Oil Yet using wind energy doesn’t lower dependence on imported foreign oil. That’s because the majority of imported oil in Maine is used for heating and transportation. And switching our dependence from foreign oil to Maine-produced electricity isn’t likely to happen very soon, says Bartlett. “Right now, people can’t switch to electric cars and heating – if they did, we’d be in trouble.” So was one of the fundamental premises of the task force false, or at least misleading?" https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/wind-swept-task-force-set-the-rules/From Part 3 – On Wind-Required New Transmission Lines Finally, the building of enormous, high-voltage transmission lines that the regional electricity system operator says are required to move substantial amounts of wind power to markets south of Maine was never even discussed by the task force – an omission that Mills said will come to haunt the state.“If you try to put 2,500 or 3,000 megawatts in northern or eastern Maine – oh, my god, try to build the transmission!” said Mills. “It’s not just the towers, it’s the lines – that’s when I begin to think that the goal is a little farfetched.” https://www.pinetreewatchdog.org/flaws-in-bill-like-skating-with-dull-skates/
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Hannah Pingree on the Maine expedited wind law
Hannah Pingree - Director of Maine's Office of Innovation and the Future
"Once the committee passed the wind energy bill on to the full House and Senate, lawmakers there didn’t even debate it. They passed it unanimously and with no discussion. House Majority Leader Hannah Pingree, a Democrat from North Haven, says legislators probably didn’t know how many turbines would be constructed in Maine."
https://pinetreewatch.org/wind-power-bandwagon-hits-bumps-in-the-road-3/
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